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post Crius - the true market impact of industry: Production Times
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Annaleva Niminen
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#1 - 2014-07-30 09:11:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Annaleva Niminen
Hello folks and CCP,

After Crius launched i begann investigating the effects and pro/cons one could read here on the forum. I am mainly in t2 production of ammunition and created some new spreadsheets for gain calculations.

Now the impact of the dynamic costs of invention and manufacturing are not realy big. Invention costs for setting up a cycle is negligable and manufacturing costs are also rather low ( i picked systems 1 jump away from jita for reference calculation and watching the costs over several days). So this praised demon of manufacturing costs impacting my resort of production is not here - this might change with time if market reduces the margin of profit dramatically, but before that, no.

now that leads me to market impact - see what i realised is (and i was astonished since i never heard any complaints about that on the forums) is that production times were reduced DRAMATICALLY. Production of medium sized weapons ammo dropped from ~7 days to mere ~ 16 hours. Large sized weapon ammo frpm ~12 days to ~1,5 days. The consequence is quite clear - production time reduction means i can - and will - produce much more goods in the same time as before - roughly 7 times the amounts of ante Crius (i love that joke). >> NOW THATS GOING TO IMPACT MARKET and profits from industry since prices will drop (you see it already with scourge heavy assault rockets for example). There are several factors driving this dynamic but the main thing ccp did with this change is it massively increased the amounts of goods a single character can produce over time. Increased production capabilities will impact resource prices and the competition when selling stuff since the market will be flooded with more goods than before (and i would guess more than is needed - at least not 7 times the amounts).
This all will balance somewhere but the profits WILL decrease and then we might see issues with where to produce stuff and pondering setup costs for our jobs.

Except for the production time reduction most industry based changes are purely cosmetic in nature and overall i tend to like them. The only issue i have is - copying has become useless (my stocks last for the next 40 years) and i need to invest more time now in industry since i have to adjust new jobs every day now - seriously once you did your spreadsheets and hauling its just a clicking through the bluprints in the interface (lagging as hell sometimes)

Fly Save
Velicitia
XS Tech
#2 - 2014-07-30 10:21:51 UTC
Assuming I am following you correctly (because your wording is a bit convoluted) .... you only seem to be looking at the "time" aspect as reducing costs, and are ignoring the upward pressure on raw material price that this decreased time will cause (and, also, the upward pressure from reduced mineral inputs from non-mining sources).

In addition to that, you also have to factor in available monies and desire to run that many jobs... sure the largest manufacturers, and many of the upper-middle guys will probably have enough ISK to throw at a 7x increase in potential production, but maybe they don't have the time. In the same vein, the middle-tier and lower will probably only have enough money on hand to keep to the old times -- For example, you have enough money such that:

1. 10 BS on sell orders
2. 10 BS worth of minerals in your hangar (or, a running job)
3. Mins on order

You're going to get a faster "Time To Market" now, but you're still going to be on the same cycle as pre-Crius (say 5 days total), due to not being able to have 4-5 runs worth of minerals sitting in your hangar that would allow you to leverage the faster manufacturing cycles.

One of the bitter points of a good bittervet is the realisation that all those SP don't really do much, and that the newbie is having much more fun with what little he has. - Tippia
Team Bidders
Doomheim
#3 - 2014-07-30 14:36:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Team Bidders
I've noticed that production time for T2 equipments has dropped significantly. A batch of 1400mm arty used to take days. Now it takes just several hours. This has actually made me less willing to make them because I can't adjust the production lines every 4 or 5 hours. I want to run a batch of 24 hours.

On the other hand, production time for T2 ships has increased, especially for interceptors. A shortage of supplies on them has already pushed the price up. The nerfing of T2 BPOs has made the adjustment even larger, for example Claws and Raptors.

I hope that CCP allow us to combine T2 BPCs. If I am allowed to combine 10 identical 10-run T2 BPCs into one single 100-run T2 BPC, life would be easier and more fun for me.
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
#4 - 2014-07-30 14:50:58 UTC
Reducing production times for things is a problem for manufacturers.

Nothing in Crius is going to increase demand for items. So if the same number of manufacturers are building, and each one builds more items in the same time period as before, then the market is going to be oversaturated. Margins decrease. Isk per hour decreases. Some people start selling at a loss to get their isk back out. Eventually, a certain number of manufacturers quit or move to other markets and prices stabilize again.

Prices are always set by the least efficient manufacturer who is required to fulfill the market demand. People who are more efficient than that get more profit per unit. People who are less efficient than that sell at a loss. Hopefully they quickly recognize that fact and change which product they are making.

This is especially relevant for T2 ammo today. A T2 BPO owner will always be more efficient than an inventor, and they just got their throughput massively boosted. I guarantee whoever owns these T2 BPOs are setting up their lines for maximum production. If they are able to produce enough of a certain T2 ammo to fulfill the market demand, then that ammo will no longer be profitable to invent.

Consider inventing something else.
Annaleva Niminen
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#5 - 2014-07-30 16:20:52 UTC
Velicitia wrote:
Assuming I am following you correctly (because your wording is a bit convoluted) .... you only seem to be looking at the "time" aspect as reducing costs, and are ignoring the upward pressure on raw material price that this decreased time will cause (and, also, the upward pressure from reduced mineral inputs from non-mining sources).

In addition to that, you also have to factor in available monies and desire to run that many jobs... sure the largest manufacturers, and many of the upper-middle guys will probably have enough ISK to throw at a 7x increase in potential production, but maybe they don't have the time. In the same vein, the middle-tier and lower will probably only have enough money on hand to keep to the old times -- For example, you have enough money such that:

1. 10 BS on sell orders
2. 10 BS worth of minerals in your hangar (or, a running job)
3. Mins on order

You're going to get a faster "Time To Market" now, but you're still going to be on the same cycle as pre-Crius (say 5 days total), due to not being able to have 4-5 runs worth of minerals sitting in your hangar that would allow you to leverage the faster manufacturing cycles.


Hi Velicitia, Yes you more or less got my point and i totally agree that there are several factors included in the final benefit and of course also the pressure from raw materials. Thats what i meant that with time the increased production speed and masses will face a higher demand on resources but also depending on the markets thirst for these products. It will balance out but nevertheless the amount of good which can be produced on a per player basis (at least speaking from amunition, i havent dont the sheets for ships yet - thanks for the hint team bidders) hast drastically increased and with that the gains from industry will tighten up since the markets needs can easily be more satisfied now. I d onot agree though on the of material stocks because of lack of isk - at least for ammunition its easy to have several jobs in advance stored up. the limiting factor will be if one can sell the ammunition that quickly - i dare say no.
Also invention is now a bottleneck since you invent in about 2/3rd of the time with only in average 50% success chance resulting in more time needed to invent t2 ammo then being able to build it (thats no biggy though since there is enough t1 stuff i can produce where i do not need invention)

yet again, the sheer amount of increase of production amounts due to the time reduction is a serious issue in my opinion

thanks all
Qmamoto Kansuke
Killing with pink power
Penguins with lasorz
#6 - 2014-07-30 19:33:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Qmamoto Kansuke
Funny enough i created the same topic 1day ago.I agree man this is disaster and the worst is ccp is not seeing this.Just look at the markets everything is going DOWN big time ammo, t2, ships you name it.Production is so much faster that many of my corp mates are thinking about leaving eve when the profits go down to levels where we would have to fight with t2 bpo owners for every cent.When a game becomes life that's when we will exit and find another 1.Eve HAD the best industry with the slow production times before crius now it just plain sucks.CCP FOR THE LOVE OF GOD FIX THIS!
Ginger Barbarella
#7 - 2014-07-30 20:48:42 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Funny enough i created the same topic 1day ago.I agree man this is disaster and the worst is ccp is not seeing this.Just look at the markets everything is going DOWN big time ammo, t2, ships you name it.Production is so much faster that many of my corp mates are thinking about leaving eve when the profits go down to levels where we would have to fight with t2 bpo owners for every cent.When a game becomes life that's when we will exit and find another 1.Eve HAD the best industry with the slow production times before crius now it just plain sucks.CCP FOR THE LOVE OF GOD FIX THIS!


Not sure if srs... Straight

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Qmamoto Kansuke
Killing with pink power
Penguins with lasorz
#8 - 2014-07-30 21:12:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Qmamoto Kansuke
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Funny enough i created the same topic 1day ago.I agree man this is disaster and the worst is ccp is not seeing this.Just look at the markets everything is going DOWN big time ammo, t2, ships you name it.Production is so much faster that many of my corp mates are thinking about leaving eve when the profits go down to levels where we would have to fight with t2 bpo owners for every cent.When a game becomes life that's when we will exit and find another 1.Eve HAD the best industry with the slow production times before crius now it just plain sucks.CCP FOR THE LOVE OF GOD FIX THIS!


Not sure if srs... Straight


Im not trolling infact i single handed ate a margin of 1m just 3days of crius now the margin is 600k but not for long.If a solo person can do that what's left for others?I guess i have to destroy more margins to show people how wrong these new production times are.
Terminator 2
Omega Boost
#9 - 2014-07-30 21:38:52 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Funny enough i created the same topic 1day ago.I agree man this is disaster and the worst is ccp is not seeing this.Just look at the markets everything is going DOWN big time ammo, t2, ships you name it.Production is so much faster that many of my corp mates are thinking about leaving eve when the profits go down to levels where we would have to fight with t2 bpo owners for every cent.When a game becomes life that's when we will exit and find another 1.Eve HAD the best industry with the slow production times before crius now it just plain sucks.CCP FOR THE LOVE OF GOD FIX THIS!


Not sure if srs... Straight


Im not trolling infact i single handed ate a margin of 1m just 3days of crius now the margin is 600k but not for long.If a solo person can do that what's left for others?I guess i have to destroy more margins to show people how wrong these new production times are.


Market PvP at its best!

Or maybe even margin ganking!

Much fun to be had...maybe this is CCPs intention after all...
Plleasure Hub
Municorn
#10 - 2014-07-31 07:42:54 UTC
Some build times have gone down, but others have gone up. While analyzing my production line for the post-Crius era, some of my previous top-seller have actually increased in production desirability due to their longer build times. This will mean less competition on those items. The profit margins and IPH stats on them remain excellent.

"There's no meaningful difference between a real and a virtual world. It's pointless to ask anyone who they really are. All you can do is accept and believe in them, because whoever they are in your mind, is their true identity." — Kazuto Kirigaya
Annaleva Niminen
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#11 - 2014-07-31 19:08:28 UTC
Plleasure Hub wrote:
Some build times have gone down, but others have gone up. While analyzing my production line for the post-Crius era, some of my previous top-seller have actually increased in production desirability due to their longer build times. This will mean less competition on those items. The profit margins and IPH stats on them remain excellent.


Cheers folks, and cheers Plleasure Hub,

"Adapting" Production times I would expect a LITTLE tweaking but reducing Ammo Production TIME to about 15% is LUDICRIOUS, Thats not adapting at all. No clue what CCP thought about it but i am pretty sure they had something in mind.
If it was making the market more competitive - mybe who knows - being able to produce 7 times the amoutn of stuff without increasing the amount of need will definitely have an impact on profit margins - intended or not.
Qmamoto Kansuke
Killing with pink power
Penguins with lasorz
#12 - 2014-08-01 00:53:48 UTC
Annaleva Niminen wrote:
Plleasure Hub wrote:
Some build times have gone down, but others have gone up. While analyzing my production line for the post-Crius era, some of my previous top-seller have actually increased in production desirability due to their longer build times. This will mean less competition on those items. The profit margins and IPH stats on them remain excellent.


Cheers folks, and cheers Plleasure Hub,

"Adapting" Production times I would expect a LITTLE tweaking but reducing Ammo Production TIME to about 15% is LUDICRIOUS, Thats not adapting at all. No clue what CCP thought about it but i am pretty sure they had something in mind.
If it was making the market more competitive - mybe who knows - being able to produce 7 times the amoutn of stuff without increasing the amount of need will definitely have an impact on profit margins - intended or not.


This is how they greet new players who want to start production which usually is ammo.Low margins and fierce competition we had none of that before..X
Deus Toran
Stojany z Podziemia
#13 - 2014-08-01 04:44:23 UTC
I agree completely with the OP. This really took me by surprise. I had been following all of the information about industry changes, but nothing I read indicated they'd change stuff this much. The only industry I did was invention and manufacturing of T2 ammunition. Prices have already started tanking. I was also a little disappointed to find that the changes to material and time efficiency made all of my decryptored BPCs pretty much worthless. I haven't gotten the chance to sit down and re-examine all of them, but my first guess is that there is now no point in using any decryptors on ammunition. I spent a lot of time setting up my toons to make different types of ammunition. I understand that players should be expected to adapt, but this structural change in the market for T2 ammunition is huge. That can't be overstated.
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#14 - 2014-08-01 09:16:41 UTC
Most T2 modules are indeed heading doooown.

On the other hand, the profit margins were (percentage-wise) pretty impressive pre-Crius and it is still somewhat hard to make a loss making T2 modules.

But it is small time business. A batch of goods is tens of millions. Pocket change for any serious builder. I expect the prices to start creeping back up once Crius newbro builders figure out that all that messing with blueprints, copies, datacores etc. gave them a pittance (in absolute terms) in ISK.
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#15 - 2014-08-01 09:17:33 UTC
Deus Toran wrote:
I agree completely with the OP. This really took me by surprise. I had been following all of the information about industry changes, but nothing I read indicated they'd change stuff this much. The only industry I did was invention and manufacturing of T2 ammunition. Prices have already started tanking. I was also a little disappointed to find that the changes to material and time efficiency made all of my decryptored BPCs pretty much worthless. I haven't gotten the chance to sit down and re-examine all of them, but my first guess is that there is now no point in using any decryptors on ammunition. I spent a lot of time setting up my toons to make different types of ammunition. I understand that players should be expected to adapt, but this structural change in the market for T2 ammunition is huge. That can't be overstated.


There was never really any point in using a decryptor on anything other than ships and a handful of specific T2 items.
Niko Lorenzio
United Eve Directorate
#16 - 2014-08-01 12:48:55 UTC
Velicitia wrote:
Assuming I am following you correctly (because your wording is a bit convoluted) .... you only seem to be looking at the "time" aspect as reducing costs, and are ignoring the upward pressure on raw material price that this decreased time will cause (and, also, the upward pressure from reduced mineral inputs from non-mining sources).

In addition to that, you also have to factor in available monies and desire to run that many jobs... sure the largest manufacturers, and many of the upper-middle guys will probably have enough ISK to throw at a 7x increase in potential production, but maybe they don't have the time. In the same vein, the middle-tier and lower will probably only have enough money on hand to keep to the old times -- For example, you have enough money such that:

1. 10 BS on sell orders
2. 10 BS worth of minerals in your hangar (or, a running job)
3. Mins on order

You're going to get a faster "Time To Market" now, but you're still going to be on the same cycle as pre-Crius (say 5 days total), due to not being able to have 4-5 runs worth of minerals sitting in your hangar that would allow you to leverage the faster manufacturing cycles.


You missed the point I think. Upwards pressure does not increase the producer's profits, it's cutting into them. Regarding everything else, even if profits don't plummet, what it means is that we have to do a lot more work in a lot less time. Either way it's killing profit / effort.

The CSM XI Election are now open until March 25th, 2016. Consider Niko Lorenzio for CSM XI.

CSM matters, your voice matters, your vote matters!
Annaleva Niminen
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2014-08-02 18:32:20 UTC
Niko Lorenzio wrote:
Velicitia wrote:
Assuming I am following you correctly (because your wording is a bit convoluted) .... you only seem to be looking at the "time" aspect as reducing costs, and are ignoring the upward pressure on raw material price that this decreased time will cause (and, also, the upward pressure from reduced mineral inputs from non-mining sources).

In addition to that, you also have to factor in available monies and desire to run that many jobs... sure the largest manufacturers, and many of the upper-middle guys will probably have enough ISK to throw at a 7x increase in potential production, but maybe they don't have the time. In the same vein, the middle-tier and lower will probably only have enough money on hand to keep to the old times -- For example, you have enough money such that:

1. 10 BS on sell orders
2. 10 BS worth of minerals in your hangar (or, a running job)
3. Mins on order

You're going to get a faster "Time To Market" now, but you're still going to be on the same cycle as pre-Crius (say 5 days total), due to not being able to have 4-5 runs worth of minerals sitting in your hangar that would allow you to leverage the faster manufacturing cycles.


You missed the point I think. Upwards pressure does not increase the producer's profits, it's cutting into them. Regarding everything else, even if profits don't plummet, what it means is that we have to do a lot more work in a lot less time. Either way it's killing profit / effort.


Totally Agree with your observation, its less profit for more time. Pre crius I used to do industry like 1hour per week setting up all Jobs and once a day doing invention jobs - took about 10 minutes. Rest of the time i enjoyed "fun stuff" - now its more like i spend every day more then 1 hour on industry doing less fun stuff - which is definitely not good. Granted the new interface (laggy as it may be) helps a lot installing new jobs (because of the filter obtions and that you can base out in one singel station), nevertheless its still only clicking around as before, so no fun stuff there.
Jan Po
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#18 - 2014-08-05 15:35:49 UTC
Hey Guys,

In following this thread I disagree that these changes have made a negative impact on Industry in the long run.

Right now most people (especially new builders and pilots unknowing of market trends and economics) will begin taking advantage of the new changes to production time without seeing the long term volatility to their actions.

Yes at the moment, I agree some prices have already begun to fall, but the market has yet to right itself. There was / is still an abundance of raw resources available at post patch prices, and so far there has been very few buy / sell order adjustments to mitigate the change in refining / reprocessing which also came with the patch.

This is where some of the big hitters will see a difference, right now and for the next few short weeks to follow, prices will continue to fall, but once the demand for raw resources exceeds the supply of them in market at pre-Crius prices, then we will start to see a market adjustment to increase the actual raw material costs of manufacturing which in turn will not only correct this temporary market fluctuation, but will also help aid a forgotten art... mining.

Mining as far as I've noticed has become increasingly more forgotten (at least by Null Sec pilots) and with these manufacturing changes, I can see mining becoming a more lucrative occupation than it has been in recent years.

Anyways, just my spin on what's happening and how I see the changes coming down the line.

Good Luck!
Van Kuzco
Perkone
Caldari State
#19 - 2014-08-06 06:26:16 UTC
Is there a way to see how manufacturing times were changed?
SJ Astralana
Syncore
#20 - 2014-08-06 09:01:56 UTC
Honestly I can't see how so many brain cells can generate so little heat.

You have a portfolio. If you have more than one blueprint, you have a portfolio. You tick along, patches and releases come and go, you tick along some more, you still have a portfolio.

If your portfolio under-performs, that frees up capital. You respond by adding a prospect to your portfolio. If your portfolio goes like the clappers and your capital gets stretched, you sit tight.

What in God's name does production time have to do with anything when the game is applying business rules to market changes? Every downturn is an opportunity to shift. Every upturn is an opportunity to ramp up your supply.

Bottom line is every damned changed is a ******* opportunity. The only thing that sucks is the lack of change, because that's where your 23/7 .01 no-life undercutters live.

Hyperdrive your production business: Eve Production Manager

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