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Effects of the job cost increase.
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Sellion Nali
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#21 - 2014-07-22 21:47:39 UTC
Quote:
And that ISK is made up in markup by manufacturers, further contributing to price hikes.


Yeah, relative to raw material prices, which are going down!
Qmamoto Kansuke
Killing with pink power
Penguins with lasorz
#22 - 2014-07-22 21:47:40 UTC


Maybe but take a moment to think how much time it will take to small scale producers to see they are doomed.My guess long time.It could be a while before we see normal prices.Or you might as well be right i guess only time will show.
Sellion Nali
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#23 - 2014-07-22 21:49:37 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:


Maybe but take a moment to think how much time it will take to small scale producers to see they are doomed.My guess long time.It could be a while before we see normal prices.Or you might as well be right i guess only time will show.

I don't get where are you seeing increases in job times. I am getting lower times, can you explain?
Qmamoto Kansuke
Killing with pink power
Penguins with lasorz
#24 - 2014-07-22 22:03:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Qmamoto Kansuke
Sellion Nali wrote:
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:


Maybe but take a moment to think how much time it will take to small scale producers to see they are doomed.My guess long time.It could be a while before we see normal prices.Or you might as well be right i guess only time will show.

I don't get where are you seeing increases in job times. I am getting lower times, can you explain?



Certainly things are much faster to produce but the existing stockpiles are build pre-cruis where invention used to take 1hour and 15 mins for your average module for example.Right now invention of 10run of that module takes 5!!! hours.So im not really sure where this could go.If the inventor playerbase is lower atm we might as well see increase in build times because lets face it people get on after work they won't stay for 10hours just to get a 2nd batch.But people can also counter this with more invention alts developed in the future like i said its complicated.
Sellion Nali
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#25 - 2014-07-22 22:33:07 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Sellion Nali wrote:
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:


Maybe but take a moment to think how much time it will take to small scale producers to see they are doomed.My guess long time.It could be a while before we see normal prices.Or you might as well be right i guess only time will show.

I don't get where are you seeing increases in job times. I am getting lower times, can you explain?



Certainly things are much faster to produce but the existing stockpiles are build pre-cruis where invention used to take 1hour and 15 mins for your average module for example.Right now invention of 10run of that module takes 5!!! hours.So im not really sure where this could go.If the inventor playerbase is lower atm we might as well see increase in build times because lets face it people get on after work they won't stay for 10hours just to get a 2nd batch.But people can also counter this with more invention alts developed in the future like i said its complicated.

Yeah plus you are talking about more of a niche market, I don't think it represents much of the sales or production. Also such increases might counter the probably lower profit margins by forcing people to get into more broad production lines.
Brock Nelson
#26 - 2014-07-22 22:44:51 UTC
The increase in invention time has no impact whatsoever, in fact, you'll probably have even more T2 BPCs lying around waiting for manufacturing alts to be able to build it.

Pre-crius, I had 1 POS, only 10 advanced labs. I can only do 30 invention job for every 1.25 hour.
Now? I can do 150 invention job for every 1.75 hours.

Signature removed, CCP Phantom
Sellion Nali
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#27 - 2014-07-23 01:17:54 UTC
Brock Nelson wrote:
The increase in invention time has no impact whatsoever, in fact, you'll probably have even more T2 BPCs lying around waiting for manufacturing alts to be able to build it.

Pre-crius, I had 1 POS, only 10 advanced labs. I can only do 30 invention job for every 1.25 hour.
Now? I can do 150 invention job for every 1.75 hours.

Its like ccp wants to flood the market with stuff while taking away isk off the table, which would mean just what I started to say, isk might become more valuable or atleast less inflation.
joyous the
Slippery Penguin
#28 - 2014-07-23 05:50:56 UTC
Less inflation? CCP made it easier for the poor to access invention. However the chokepoint still relies on mats. Which lies in the control of more important people than the common poor. The wave of "t2 bpo prices will fall" brought the prices in line to lower /yr profit margins, for the past couple months. The panic led for some good grabs by the smart. Fact of the matter is, bpos aren't judged by the rich on the profit they make, but the ease of profit they bring. /yr profit? lol, the poors perception. The drum of the imminent t2 bpo crash is led by the uninformed poor and manipulators. Plex crash? No, nothing in EVE crashes permanently. The people driving the price has more invested, and more liquid than you can imagine. You're wrong, deal with it. Quote this in a year.
Antihrist Pripravnik
Cultural Enrichment and Synergy of Diversity
Stain Neurodiverse Democracy
#29 - 2014-07-23 19:08:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik
I wanted to create a thread about this, but found out about this one.

Taxing industrial activities like Crius did will cause inflation because more ISK will be coming into the game. It may seem like an ISK sink, but it's really causing faucets to grow. Let me explain.

Industrialists make stuff for profit. Any tax added to the manufacturing or related activities will be added to the final price of the product. Those who buy stuff for consumption (anyone not doing industry, which is the majority of population) will have to grind more to buy the stuff, thus generating more ISK than before Crius. ISK income from grinding haven't been increased (and will not be), so the only option for many players is more grinding which means bigger faucets.

A similar thing is happening in my country now:
The government is "trying" to battle the inflation with insane taxes and keeping public wages stagnant (or even lowering them). I said "trying" because that's only the official story - the reality is that it's done intentionally in order to build a dictatorship and establish tight population control. And while the people are working harder for the same amount of money, the prices are steadily rising because of the taxes applied to industrial sector. In order to appear that the economy is "growing", they print more money as they raise taxes. It's an effective method of controlling general population until everything goes straight to hell when you'll need 5 billion [insert currency here] to buy an ice cream (I've already been through that situation).

Why has CCP decided to deploy a well known population control methodology is beyond me. The only logical explanation is that they want to divide the player base into those who grind and those who spend, with PLEX in the middle. And let's not forget the final piece of the puzzle - privileged elite who has an income source not available to the general population while paying substantially less for taxes than the rest. It's fuel, electricity, medication,... in RL and moon goo in EVE.

By the way, I'm not complaining about this... I've already survived a hyper-inflation and know what to do when s#%$ hits the fan. It's just strange that they actually want to do that to the economy of their own game.
Treboro
Guns and Butter Industries
#30 - 2014-07-24 02:33:42 UTC
I have often had all of my manufacturing slots running 1500 run cruise missile jobs at npc stations in high sec, this used to take about three days... the same jobs are now taking nine days. this is going to reduce my mineral needs for the month to about a third of what i was using, of course my production will be reduced too. i don't often look at the cost as this is an activity i can do contantly with no cost restraints and i can recover any cost just by raising my sell price.

this expansion was billed as an industrial revolution. i wonder which industrial revolution was kicked off by a period of higher taxes and slower production???
Tulber
#31 - 2014-07-24 02:57:31 UTC
Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:

Industrialists make stuff for profit. Any tax added to the manufacturing or related activities will be added to the final price of the product. Those who buy stuff for consumption (anyone not doing industry, which is the majority of population) will have to grind more to buy the stuff, thus generating more ISK than before Crius. ISK income from grinding haven't been increased (and will not be), so the only option for many players is more grinding which means bigger faucets.


I disagree. They're the same faucets, which are an issue unto themselves.

Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:

The only logical explanation is that they want to divide the player base into those who grind and those who spend, with PLEX in the middle.


I think you just might be reading a little too much into this. The simpler line of reasoning being "encourage industry to not locate entirely in The Forge."

Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:

By the way, I'm not complaining about this... I've already survived a hyper-inflation and know what to do when s#%$ hits the fan. It's just strange that they actually want to that to the economy of their own game.


Well, if they want to do something about inflation, I think the last thing I would suggest is to remove a non-trivial isk sink first.
Paynus Maiassus
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#32 - 2014-07-24 03:49:22 UTC
Khara Taredi wrote:
Now that crius is live and everyone has had a chance to look at the numbers for industry jobs I'm curious what everyone thinks about the effects this will have on the value of isk.

Since almost everything in Eve is created by players CCP effectively put a giant isk sink into the game with the change to job costs.
Since I'm still relatively new I don't have a good idea about how much isk is actually generated "out of the blue" by things like bounties but I'm guessing it's more than whatever leaves the game through sinks like the LP store.
Now that job costs are up significantly even more isk is gonna leave the game (possibly more than through the LP store).

What do you think this will do the overall economy?
My guess is that short term we won't see much of change because of old stock and people still adapting to the changes.
But once we run out of that I'm assuming prices will go up to compensate for higher production costs.

What I'm mostly interested in is the time after that.
Compared to the old prices for running jobs, which were negligible in terms of an isk sink, the new increase actually removes a lot of isk from the game.
Would it be possible that we'll see deflation in the long run and prices for everything coming down?




As a second point I'm also wondering what these changes will do for newer players who want to get into industry.
Like I said, I'm still pretty new but I have a decent BPO collection. Before crius I was looking at new markets but after checking the cost and time required to research all the new BPOs I think I'm gonna wait a little to see what happens to the prices.

My point here is that it will take a lot more time and capital to get into industry. New players will be competing against a lot of people with perfect BPOs that were created cheaper and faster. While starting out they'll have to deal with lower profit margins for longer.

Someone also mentioned that T1 production was heavily tied to refinery and with the changes to that T1 manufacturing will become less profitable. If this is true that it will only make it even harder for new players to start off their industry empire.
Do you agree or am I missing something here?

Obligatory tl;dr
- Job costs are up and are a new (big) isk sink. Will we see deflation in the long run?
- Costs and time requirement for ME/TE research increased significantly. Will this make it harder for new players to enter the market?

Looking forward to read what you all think.


The costs aren't terribly significant. 1-5% if a player takes no actions to mitigate them. They certainly won't amount to the ISK input from bounties, and they may slow inflation a bit but there will certainly be no deflation. My numbers are already showing increased margins because, as one would expect, hysteria is the rule, and most players are not gaming the system as it was meant to be gamed. They are not moving. They are not properly using teams. The optimal situation in Crius is the creation of industrial alliances consisting of groups of Indy players interacting to operate in areas where only their group operates, share POS resources, and cooperatively bid on teams that will work on coordinated product lines to ensure the effects of bonuses are maximized. 99.9% of Eve players will not do this or adjust their operations at all, but will just eat the costs and 10% margins will become 7% margins and nothing else will change. As I mentioned, I have seen margins increase on most of my products by a few percent and this also is a result of industrialists not being smart enough for the new system. Basically, the new system will grant smart guys like yours truly a few percentage points and will cost the idiot masses a few percentage points and that will be it.

It's not going to be a new era for Ndw Eden or anything.
Antihrist Pripravnik
Cultural Enrichment and Synergy of Diversity
Stain Neurodiverse Democracy
#33 - 2014-07-24 04:47:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik
Tulber wrote:


...



I'm not talking about spreading the industry, which is fine and should be done.

I'm talking about 400 million to 1.1 billion ISK rip-off in order to research ME level of a capital ship (in this example Thanatos) by a single point. The NPC cost of blueprint is 1.1 bil ISK, by the way. That's not connected to spreading industry - that's connected with introducing an insane amount of artificially pumped cost forced by the game itself - not by player actions. Those costs will be transferred to end users and the price will rise as the current stocks are being slowly depleted, so there is really a little to worry about as an industrialist.

However, the increase in price will be covered with increase in time spent in farming (by the buyers/consumers) while sacrificing time dedicated to other activities. I'm not like that... my mentality and gameplay is not like that - but as you can see with the state of nullsec (we should call it a rentsec now... it's more appropriate), that's a dominant mentality in the game. Don't have ISK? - throw a tengu alt in a renting corp and grind your ISK as much as you like widening the faucet in the process. Artificially pumped insane amount of costs will cause an inflation and the EVE demographics, as we can already see, reacts to inflation with more grinding.

The funny thing is - the next step in creating the cash-grab environment with rampant inflation and PLEX in the middle (as an easy way to avoid the grind) is to boost the ISK grind. Watch closely releases that follow.
Adunh Slavy
#34 - 2014-07-24 04:48:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
Tulber wrote:

Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:

... the majority of population will have to grind more to buy the stuff, thus generating more ISK than before Crius. ISK income from grinding haven't been increased (and will not be), so the only option for many players is more grinding which means bigger faucets ...

Well, if they want to do something about inflation, I think the last thing I would suggest is to remove a non-trivial isk sink first.


This is a big unknown from my perspective. Could players, in the aggregate, over compensate? They are being presented with something they have not previously had to weigh.

There is a new sink and that should, on paper, reduce the net monetary gain, yet there is another angle to consider: the utility of ISK is being increased. ISK, like trit, is gained by expending time and effort to collect it. Functionally, ISK is a commodity money, the canon says fiat but that's just fiction. (as if Eve were not fiction right? anyway ... )

So now, this money has a new purpose, as an input to the build process. That has not existed before this patch, certainly not to this degree.

Will players feel inclined to run just one more mission instead of mine that day, to compensate for this new cost? I think we can assume that they will not spend more or less time in Eve than before. So who's utility wins, trit or ISK?

Pure reason would lead one to think trit would win this contest, but trit is not getting the hype in the patch, ISK is.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Antihrist Pripravnik
Cultural Enrichment and Synergy of Diversity
Stain Neurodiverse Democracy
#35 - 2014-07-24 05:05:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik
Adunh Slavy wrote:

Will players feel inclined to run just one more mission instead of mine that day, to compensate for this new cost? I think we can assume that they will not spend more or less time in Eve than before. So who's utility wins, trit or ISK?

Pure reason would lead one to think trit would win this contest, but trit is not getting the hype in the patch, ISK is.

With artificially increased prices caused by the game itself while the grind income stays the same (same DPS of PvE ships, same bounty values,...), my assumption is that a player will feel inclined to run just one more mission instead of venturing into PvP, or any other non-ISK generating activity that day in order to compensate for the new cost... and that's scary but already proven to be true.

Mining isn't an option, because it does not provide much of a gameplay.
Tulber
#36 - 2014-07-24 17:44:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Tulber
Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:

However, the increase in price will be covered with increase in time spent in farming (by the buyers/consumers) while sacrificing time dedicated to other activities.


This will occur when cost shifting begins and old stocks of affected ships and modules are hitting shelves at higher prices, but if there's a general reduction in the money supply as the result of this isk sink, then the purchasing power of each isk one grinds is increased (or rather depletes more slowly than before) and the resulting cost hike is not so extreme.

Of course that's general theory and doesn't take into account this gind-psychology you're alluding to, but I don't know what that is other than a guess. ;)

Adunh Slavy wrote:

So now, this money has a new purpose, as an input to the build process. That has not existed before this patch, certainly not to this degree.


I see your point here, and i'll admit I hadn't considered that angle directly; however, I don't think this is a fundamental paradigm shift given that isk/currency is always a potential input to the extent that most users aren't literally supplying all of their individual needs in the production process. eg. If before I needed 500 isogen and I now need 600 isogen, that's not appreciable different from needing 500 isogen plus an additional isk amount relatively similar to the 100 isogen+ cost. So if I were in the situation that I purchased some or most of my isogen already, I the material vs. isk sink wouldn't change my behavior significantly.

Adunh Slavy wrote:

Will players feel inclined to run just one more mission instead of mine that day, to compensate for this new cost? I think we can assume that they will not spend more or less time in Eve than before. So who's utility wins, trit or ISK?

Pure reason would lead one to think trit would win this contest, but trit is not getting the hype in the patch, ISK is.


I'm not sure about the hype in question, but I think the average manufacturer has enough liquid isk to cover the initial hit while prices stabilize. I don't see a lot of overlap between the manu/research crowd and mission runners, but perhaps that is naivete on my part. If there's still any margin left in the manu business, they'll continue to work it. If there's not, they might turn to the isk faucets as you suggest. I don't have sufficient information to make a guess about how likely that is, but personally I'm not warming up the marauder any time soon.

Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:

With artificially increased prices caused by the game itself while the grind income stays the same (same DPS of PvE ships, same bounty values,...), my assumption is that a player will feel inclined to run just one more mission instead of venturing into PvP, or any other non-ISK generating activity that day in order to compensate for the new cost... and that's scary but already proven to be true.


While it is obviously true that increasing the number of minutes/hours of your time represented by a ship loss increases risk and inherently affects one's general willingness to take said risk, there's also something to be said for the inverse effect; that is, fights that represent more time value of loss are more meaningful both to the victors and the defeated. Attempting to use an example ad absurdum in either direction would produce lousy gameplay. Either extreme risk aversion or random suicidal behavior devoid of consequence.

Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:

The funny thing is - the next step in creating the cash-grab environment with rampant inflation and PLEX in the middle (as an easy way to avoid the grind) is to boost the ISK grind. Watch closely releases that follow.


Oh I'll definitely be watching those faucets.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#37 - 2014-07-24 18:14:21 UTC
Note that Advanced Inustry skill is being buffed from 1% / level reduction in manufacturing, to 3% reduction / level on everything you can do in the Industry UI.

I think it is way too early to predict where the markets are going, as industrialists like me haven't even figured-out the new systems yet.
Festers Uncle
Shortbus Hauling
#38 - 2014-07-24 18:30:54 UTC
Brock Nelson wrote:
The increase in invention time has no impact whatsoever, in fact, you'll probably have even more T2 BPCs lying around waiting for manufacturing alts to be able to build it.

Pre-crius, I had 1 POS, only 10 advanced labs. I can only do 30 invention job for every 1.25 hour.
Now? I can do 150 invention job for every 1.75 hours.


But what is the cost of doing said 150 inventions now? That will have to be figured into sell cost of all times increase the cost of T2 putting it further away from people. Ratting, whether it be incursion, pve, and so on, is still the primary way that most people will earn money in Eve. The amount per rat stays the same and the loss in loot because of the nerf on loot refining and flooding the markets, means that people will have to grind even harder for isk to pay for the 150 inventions that can be done in no time.

Yes the min prices are going to drop because no one will be using them The stockpiling is going to go from minerals and such to BPos since no one can afford to manufacturing because the players have to fill the isk sink.
Adunh Slavy
#39 - 2014-07-24 18:41:25 UTC
Tulber wrote:

Good points all.



Will be interesting to watch how this new wrinkle is dealt with.

And, the entire faucet/sink aspect of this will rely more on builders, will they move to lower cost areas or sit and deal with the fees.

I just wish CCP had focused more on divisions of labor than making the waters even more muddy.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Tulber
#40 - 2014-07-24 19:37:16 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
I just wish CCP had focused more on divisions of labor than making the waters even more muddy.


I certainly agree that DoL is the key to a realistic/productive game economy, and incidentally, one in which complex systems can be broken down into bite-sized pieces for newer players to introduce themselves to the process. Come to think of it, I think you're describing exactly why Industry sucks; that is: because it's a head-case's job with no end of complication and due to game mechanics, sharing some of that load is almost certainly suicidal to your bottom line.

That said, I don't see the water being much more muddy than it was before and *hopefully* this industrialist isk-sink is a portend of more isk-sinks to come.
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