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Jita prices crashing?

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Netan MalDoran
Cathedral.
Shadow Cartel
#1 - 2014-07-19 18:30:33 UTC
I noticed today as I sold my loot that everything was selling for about 20% less than estimated, looking at Cerlestes it seems that everything is crashing in price other than Ice products (Probably from people stocking up before everyone wants Ice With highsec POS's), any thoughts on why everything else is dropping in price?

"Your security status has been lowered." - Hell yeah it was!

Falcon's truth
Nihi Li'aldoko
The Mucking Fuppets
#2 - 2014-07-20 00:38:13 UTC
I'll bite because I have already positioned myself for Crius. Basically I hope you stock piled T2 mods and ships and T2 making materials because after the new expansion hits prices are going to skyrocket. Which means people are firesaling all their stocks in order to get T2 mods/ships/etc.. buy orders up now before anyone realizes it. But of course I have already packed about 157 billion in T2 and moon goo so I am expecting it to at least double. /dreamy voice I always wanted one of those titan thingys

I dunno just throwing that out there because ~industry material cost changes~
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#3 - 2014-07-20 02:09:20 UTC
Oddly, I was noticing how prices on many things has spiked since roughly this time last month, and how stocks in Jita are extremely low.

Example: EM Ward Field II

It looks to me like other industrialists may have also stopped manufacturing until Crius hits, as I did. Plus, there is likely a lot of stockpiling going-on as others realize post-Crius prices will be higher.
Netan MalDoran
Cathedral.
Shadow Cartel
#4 - 2014-07-20 05:06:44 UTC
Ah, the mist of confusion has faded...... just when I'm starting invention for the first time X.
Guess I'll have to go buy a lot of fulerines and the other thing I needed ASAFP

"Your security status has been lowered." - Hell yeah it was!

Falcon's truth
Steve Celeste
Doomheim
#5 - 2014-07-20 08:12:27 UTC
Netan MalDoran wrote:
Guess I'll have to go buy a lot of fulerines and the other thing I needed ASAFP

Just because a 1 like random told you so.... ok.
Careby
#6 - 2014-07-20 14:15:54 UTC
Crius includes so many inter-related changes that I don't believe anyone is capable of predicting the outcome, including CCP. And the communication of the coming changes was confusing at best. Add to this the ongoing changes to the previously announced changes that have occurred along the way. Then throw in the lingering inconsistencies between what was stated by CCP and what's implemented on SiSi. And don't forget all the forum posts from players who mean well, players who mean to mislead, and players who just don't have a clue.

I don't pretend to have any better understanding of what it all means than any other average player, but I am confident from my own limited research that there are going to be some rude surprises come Tuesday morning.
Netan MalDoran
Cathedral.
Shadow Cartel
#7 - 2014-07-20 20:10:57 UTC
Steve Celeste wrote:
Netan MalDoran wrote:
Guess I'll have to go buy a lot of fulerines and the other thing I needed ASAFP

Just because a 1 like random told you so.... ok.


This wasn't a random decision BTW, I didn't realize that production will take a bit more materials plus the fact that more people will be trying Industry for awhile so it make sense that materials may cost more, some T2 stuff is already rising in price.

I actually use my brain before I post unlike some Shocked

"Your security status has been lowered." - Hell yeah it was!

Falcon's truth
Careby
#8 - 2014-07-20 22:48:54 UTC
Netan MalDoran wrote:
Steve Celeste wrote:
Netan MalDoran wrote:
Guess I'll have to go buy a lot of fulerines and the other thing I needed ASAFP

Just because a 1 like random told you so.... ok.


This wasn't a random decision BTW, I didn't realize that production will take a bit more materials plus the fact that more people will be trying Industry for awhile so it make sense that materials may cost more, some T2 stuff is already rising in price.

I actually use my brain before I post unlike some Shocked

Whether or not production will take "a bit more materials" depends on what kind of production and from what kind of blueprint, and even then I don't think it's 100% clear yet. I compared some T2 bpcs on Tranquility to the same ones converted on SiSi, and compared those to new ones invented on SiSi. The ones I checked did not require more materials. I'm sure others do. I expect T1 production to be less viable as a profession because anyone will be able to do it without waste, but I am not at all sure that will be the case, especially if we include refining from ore into the equation.
Abidal Trekt
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#9 - 2014-07-21 00:42:37 UTC
Crius: Region traders sipping cocktails beachside while speculators fashion beads for their abacuses from their ripped-out hair.
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#10 - 2014-07-21 05:18:45 UTC
It was "mojito-time" last week... won't be long now before folks realize the "new order" of things.

"Cheeeves.... another mojito, you slack bastard..."

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )
Elzon1
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#11 - 2014-07-21 08:35:12 UTC
People are just reacting to the changes coming in Cruis.

All people will really have to due is take their industrial operations a bit further out from Jita than they currently are.

The more interesting aspect to Cruis is what is going to happen to the tech 1 market seeing as their will no longer be a 100% refine at any high sec station for ships, module, drones, ammo, or deployables.

When Cruis hits anything that is high in supply but low in demand will begin to fall in price in the tech 1 market.

The prices will keep falling until there is an increase in demand, decrease in supply, or it hits the new floor in terms of the new max refining rate.

Now tech 1 industrialists will have to be more careful about how they build and sell things on the market due to no longer having the 100% refine in place. If something is overproduced/supplied the price will drop.

Anything in the tech 1 market that typically is low in demand will be dropping in price.

The market will shift from a massive mineral storage device into a just-in-time production cycle.

Due to the new reprocessing interface it will tell you if something is worth more selling than it is reprocessing. As a result, prices will be dropping quite quickly on various items not in demand due to being into buy orders or made into sell orders. The new refining percentage will cause people to sell, sell, sell until they hit the new processing floor.

Also, some player owned stations can be upgraded to have a higher refine for tech 1 items and as a result some may be buying from the market's new refining floor (55%) to reprocess at their station (60%) for a profit when returning those minerals to the market.

Interesting time this expansion is...
Pheusia
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#12 - 2014-07-21 20:12:09 UTC
Elzon1 wrote:


The market will shift from a massive mineral storage device into a just-in-time production cycle.


It's surprising how few people have noticed this.
Elzon1
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#13 - 2014-07-22 05:12:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Elzon1
Pheusia wrote:
Elzon1 wrote:


The market will shift from a massive mineral storage device into a just-in-time production cycle.


It's surprising how few people have noticed this.


Strange, I usually feel as if I'm pointing out the obvious most of the time. Lol

I wonder how fast CCP updates the insurance prices.

If it's too slow there just might be a chance to commit insurance fraud with tech 1 ships that are rarely used or fairly low in demand. Twisted

Hopefully CVA upgrades at least one of it's minmatar outposts to 60% refine so they can take advantage of those who wish to profit from buying at a 55% refining floor and reprocessing at 60% for saleable minerals.

Edit: Wouldn't it be interesting if all tech 1 ship prices fell due to all the markets being oversupplied compared to demand?

If a good portion of the market fell to the 55% reprocessing floor it would leave me stitches Lol
Sellion Nali
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#14 - 2014-07-22 21:35:59 UTC
Nihi Li'aldoko wrote:
I'll bite because I have already positioned myself for Crius. Basically I hope you stock piled T2 mods and ships and T2 making materials because after the new expansion hits prices are going to skyrocket. Which means people are firesaling all their stocks in order to get T2 mods/ships/etc.. buy orders up now before anyone realizes it. But of course I have already packed about 157 billion in T2 and moon goo so I am expecting it to at least double. /dreamy voice I always wanted one of those titan thingys

I dunno just throwing that out there because ~industry material cost changes~

How is your plan going? I hope you make any profits soon because we are going down, any rise will probably not last unless there are specific increases in manufacturing material requirements.
Sellion Nali
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#15 - 2014-07-22 21:37:01 UTC
Elzon1 wrote:
People are just reacting to the changes coming in Cruis.

All people will really have to due is take their industrial operations a bit further out from Jita than they currently are.

The more interesting aspect to Cruis is what is going to happen to the tech 1 market seeing as their will no longer be a 100% refine at any high sec station for ships, module, drones, ammo, or deployables.

When Cruis hits anything that is high in supply but low in demand will begin to fall in price in the tech 1 market.

The prices will keep falling until there is an increase in demand, decrease in supply, or it hits the new floor in terms of the new max refining rate.

Now tech 1 industrialists will have to be more careful about how they build and sell things on the market due to no longer having the 100% refine in place. If something is overproduced/supplied the price will drop.

Anything in the tech 1 market that typically is low in demand will be dropping in price.

The market will shift from a massive mineral storage device into a just-in-time production cycle.

Due to the new reprocessing interface it will tell you if something is worth more selling than it is reprocessing. As a result, prices will be dropping quite quickly on various items not in demand due to being into buy orders or made into sell orders. The new refining percentage will cause people to sell, sell, sell until they hit the new processing floor.

Also, some player owned stations can be upgraded to have a higher refine for tech 1 items and as a result some may be buying from the market's new refining floor (55%) to reprocess at their station (60%) for a profit when returning those minerals to the market.

Interesting time this expansion is...

I think you are on the money.
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#16 - 2014-07-23 07:12:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Jarnis McPieksu
Netan MalDoran wrote:
I noticed today as I sold my loot that everything was selling for about 20% less than estimated, looking at Cerlestes it seems that everything is crashing in price other than Ice products (Probably from people stocking up before everyone wants Ice With highsec POS's), any thoughts on why everything else is dropping in price?


Wrong. Meta loot from rats are going down because loot reprocessing was taken behind the shed and introduced to the Nerf Bat.

So anyone buying random crap mods for reprocessing would have cut down their buy order prices by a ton.

Everything actually manufactured is going up and if you are smart, you will grab that spare ship or two *now* while there are still stuff on the market built under the old system.

There are already effects on some individual products where market was thin enough for some single player to just grab all the underpriced stuff and mark it up (see: Ishtar, if you want an example) - those are already selling at the "new norm". As time goes on, this spreads to all T2 stuff and, eventually, will also inch up the T1 prices (tho less than T2).

Edit: T1 prices assume minerals stay where they are. Right now they are going down because mass buyers no longer want to buy minerals to manufacture piles and piles of 425 railgun I:s. They want to buy ore (or compressed ore) for JFing into 0.0 for capital/supercapital builds.

In the short term T1 side may go down a bit until miners wise up to sell ore instead of trying to refine with non-prefect high sec refineries.
Cerlestes
Veldspar Trading Company.
Veldspar Trading Alliance.
#17 - 2014-07-23 17:59:13 UTC
Mineral prices are dropping because the refining yield has been increased by 38.1% across the board for all ores and ices. In combination with the now possible 114% refine rate, this allows perfectly skilled refiners with a perfect station to get almost 60% more minerals out of their ore - for free.

More minerals available = lower prices as demand can't catch up.
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#18 - 2014-07-23 20:41:05 UTC
Cerlestes wrote:
Mineral prices are dropping because the refining yield has been increased by 38.1% across the board for all ores and ices. In combination with the now possible 114% refine rate, this allows perfectly skilled refiners with a perfect station to get almost 60% more minerals out of their ore - for free.

More minerals available = lower prices as demand can't catch up.


No, they are dropping because mass buys by cap/supercap builders are not happening any more. They want ore (or compressed ore). Miners need to gain Patchnotes Reading III and start selling their stuff as ore to get better ISK out of it.

Once this happens minerals will find the happy middle ground - if they rise too high, people buy some ore and refine it to sell. Only buyers are small time producers in high sec so big volumes will move to raw ore.
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#19 - 2014-07-23 21:15:29 UTC
Cerlestes wrote:
Mineral prices are dropping because the refining yield has been increased by 38.1% across the board for all ores and ices. In combination with the now possible 114% refine rate, this allows perfectly skilled refiners with a perfect station to get almost 60% more minerals out of their ore - for free.

More minerals available = lower prices as demand can't catch up.



uhhh

your math is off.

perfect refine, in a 50% station is approximately equal to what was perfect.

Perfect refine in a 60% station is approximately 20% higher.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter
Careby
#20 - 2014-07-24 15:46:52 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Cerlestes wrote:
Mineral prices are dropping because the refining yield has been increased...


uhhh

your math is off.

perfect refine, in a 50% station is approximately equal to what was perfect.

Perfect refine in a 60% station is approximately 20% higher.

And remember that transportation costs between all the 60% outposts and empire space have gone up. I have not run the exact numbers, but my gut instinct tells me you cannot profitably transport compressed highsec ore to a nullsec outpost, refine it, and bring those minerals back to highsec. (I do think you can profitably refine nullsec ore at an outpost and bring those minerals to highsec, especially considering there may be empty jump freighters going that direction.) I presume that was the reason for increasing jump freighter fuel requirements - to separate the highsec and lowsec markets for low-end minerals.

Add to this the reduction in minerals obtained from reprocessing mission loot, which is bound to have some effect on mineral prices.
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