Market Discussions

Now that crius is live and everyone has had a chance to look at the numbers for industry jobs I'm curious what everyone thinks about the effects this will have on the value of isk.

Since almost everything in Eve is created by players CCP effectively put a giant isk sink into the game with the change to job costs.
Since I'm still relatively new I don't have a good idea about how much isk is actually generated "out of the blue" by things like bounties but I'm guessing it's more than whatever leaves the game through sinks like the LP store.
Now that job costs are up significantly even more isk is gonna leave the game (possibly more than through the LP store).

What do you think this will do the overall economy?
My guess is that short term we won't see much of change because of old stock and people still adapting to the changes.
But once we run out of that I'm assuming prices will go up to compensate for higher production costs.

What I'm mostly interested in is the time after that.
Compared to the old prices for running jobs, which were negligible in terms of an isk sink, the new increase actually removes a lot of isk from the game.
Would it be possible that we'll see deflation in the long run and prices for everything coming down?




As a second point I'm also wondering what these changes will do for newer players who want to get into industry.
Like I said, I'm still pretty new but I have a decent BPO collection. Before crius I was looking at new markets but after checking the cost and time required to research all the new BPOs I think I'm gonna wait a little to see what happens to the prices.

My point here is that it will take a lot more time and capital to get into industry. New players will be competing against a lot of people with perfect BPOs that were created cheaper and faster. While starting out they'll have to deal with lower profit margins for longer.

Someone also mentioned that T1 production was heavily tied to refinery and with the changes to that T1 manufacturing will become less profitable. If this is true that it will only make it even harder for new players to start off their industry empire.
Do you agree or am I missing something here?

Obligatory tl;dr
- Job costs are up and are a new (big) isk sink. Will we see deflation in the long run?
- Costs and time requirement for ME/TE research increased significantly. Will this make it harder for new players to enter the market?

Looking forward to read what you all think.

It's contradictory if you assume it'll happen at the same time.
What I meant was that it'll go something like this.
- Short term prices stay the same due to old stock.
- Mid term prices will go up cause we run out of that old stock and overall production can't meet the demand because people are waiting to see where the market settles.
- Long term people start producing again but because everything has been so expensive average joe doesn't have a lot of isk anymore and demand will be lower. It will take a while for this decrease to move through the market until it reaches base materials like minerals. Once the demand gets lower at the base prices will naturally get lower as well and everything else will in turn follow until we reach a new equilibrium where everything is material price plus a little profit.

Of course this is just wild guessing on my part because it's hard to really estimate the amount of isk that leaves the system.
Maybe I'm just overestimating the isk sink but to me it seems like a significant change in a game where almost everything is player built.

Taking everything you've said into account and acknowledging your scenario of an economy depreciating, I just can't see how it can happen. Inflation has been the way of the economy well before Crius and the new ISK sinks introduced will do little to reverse it.

It'll be more difficult for newer players to cope with the changes because of the aforementioned ISK sinks that particularly hit people hard in high sec. Factor in that they have also have a disadvantage brawling it out in the team auctions because they just don't have the capital to do so. Same goes with researching blueprints, albeit higher ore yield should help offset the disadvantages of an unresearched blueprint.

You can expect less engagement from these players in industry, and the game as a whole while buying power for players is still a problem and will continue to be.

I remember ccp saying something about they wanting players to have less inventories of stuff, they want to decrease the hoarding of minerals and isk, and look at we have now, isn't it perfect and simple?

Yes because the profit margins are way down because of the taxes!

Right now I am trying to test the market direction for minerals by market making, guess what? I am buying way more than selling!

What the? Are you a noob? I am telling you that I am buying more eg. players are selling their minerals. Inflation levels will go down!

You are right up to this point "On the manufacturing side of things, Crius has made it more difficult financially for players to manufacture goods from these minerals, meaning fewer players are involved and fewer goods will be produced, resulting in a lower stock, further contributing to the overall inflation of the economy."

Because CCP is not taking minerals away as payment, they are charging you a tax in isk!
Hence even thou mineral requirements are higher, the tax overpowers this by a lot as seen in reduced mineral prices!
Unless the market is wrong, and I highly doubt it, then trends will continue, its already starting with ships, with salvaged materials and their producs, look it up.

If the higher bpo mineral requirements cost was higher than the tax then prices wouldn't go down, they would remain stable or go up if the tax was much lower, but its not, its a solid 10%! Which will eat isk with every single production and market cicle. The effects are only beggining today and look at the prices already.

Oh that too!? No way. Hah now we are in for a ride :D

WAIT A MINUTE!! Then why do my fighter done bpo's are showing 3 days in manufacturing instead of 2 weeks? If this is true for most products then profits will be very very low! Man this is so weird.