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Some Predictions Regarding Starbases in Post-Crius EvE

Author
Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#1 - 2014-07-11 17:39:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Bronson Hughes
tl;dr version: the Amarr Compression POS will become the new Caldari research POS, and Jita will likely lose some of it's overall market share to Amarr.

Here are some predictions regarding the upcoming starbase changes in Crius:

1. With the removal of slots (and the proposed array stacking bonuses), Caldari small towers will no longer be the kings of small research POSes. All you need to do as much research at a POS as you want is one Research Lab and one Design Lab, and any small tower can support both of those at once.

2. In light of #1, coupled with the abundance of extra PG for weapons and the reduced logistics of using laser batteries for defense, I predict that Amarr towers will come to dominate the small POS market. Given the recent price swing in small Amarr faction towers, I'd wager that I'm not the only one to have predicted this.

3. I predict that the small research POS market will collapse due to the availability of unlimited, risk-free, logistic-free NPC research slots. The bonuses provided by POS labs likely won't overcome the extra install costs at NPC stations, and it almost certainly won't overcome the fuel costs. Ironically, the jobs best suited to POS research are the ones that take the longest (they gain the most from the time bonuses), yet these are the ones least likely to be installed as they are either very expensive BPOs that people won't want to risk (even CCP has acknowledged this), or are less-exensive BPOs researching to max levels that won't be productive enough to justify the fuel costs.

4. After Crius, I predict the rise of the "Compression POS", and a boom in the compressed mineral market in hisec. Research, production, and refining will all be able to be performed in NPC stations, at additional cost, with zero risk and zero wait. But compression? That's something you can only get in hisec at a POS, and we couldn't get it before. MODIFIED

5. REDACTED


Having said all of that, this is pure speculation and is, of course, subject to changes by CCP before Crius goes live. If I'm right on even one of these counts, I'll be amazed.

EDIT: Already proven wrong on one and had to change the scope of another, due to poor depth of understanding in T3 production and reverse engineering. I predict that my predictions are coming crashing down around me, LOL!

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Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#2 - 2014-07-11 18:25:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Tau Cabalander
Minmatar towers are superior to Amarr in almost every measure.

More CPU, best balance of CPU and grid, more shield, racial 50% EM + 25% thermal shield resist, weapons that can do all 4 damage types (and with only two different types of ammo), highest alpha weapons (artillery), longest range weapons, highest damage weapons (falloff not affected by ammo).

If I switch towers, it will be to a Minmatar tower. [My first large tower was a Domination.]
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2014-07-11 18:33:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Gilbaron
Reduced demand for caldari research pos is correct, however, I expect increased demand for the minmatar all in one shop pos. Come crius, it's gonna make sense to build some things in a pos.
Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#4 - 2014-07-11 19:27:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Bronson Hughes
Tau Cabalander wrote:
Minmatar towers are superior to Amarr in almost every measure.

More CPU, best balance of CPU and grid, more shield, racial 50% EM + 25% thermal shield resist, weapons that can do all 4 damage types (and with only two different types of ammo), highest alpha weapons (artillery), longest range weapons, highest damage weapons (falloff not affected by ammo).

If I switch towers, it will be to a Minmatar tower. [My first large tower was a Domination.]



Gilbaron wrote:
Reduced demand for caldari research pos is correct, however, I expect increased demand for the minmatar all in one shop pos. Come crius, it's gonna make sense to build some things in a pos.


For medium and large towers, I generally agree with you, which is why I specifically called out smalls. And for production-based POSes, I also agree with you to an extent since assembly arrays have a different balance of PG and CPU. But on small research/compression POSes, I think it's different. Here's why:

1. Currently, Minmatar smalls make better research POSes than Amarr smalls do because you can have two hardeners and two mobile labs online in a small Minmatar POS, but not in a small Amarr POS. Post-Crius, this dual-lab setup doesn't make sense because there's no longer any benefit to the second lab, and you don't have enough CPU to online a design lab in it's place, so it's on an equal footing with an Amarr tower.

2. Individual projectile batteries on a Minmatar POS are superior to individual laser batteries on an Amarr POS. But try fitting a one-lab (or one-compressor) small Minmatar POS with two shield hardeners and defensive modules, and you'll find that you can mount more of them on an Amarr POS. The Minmatar POS will have CPU going un-utlized, whereas the Amarr POS will be at roughly max PG and CPU (with one additional turret).

3. While you are correct that projectile batteries will have a longer range than laser batteries (given appropriate bonuses), The 187+50km on small beam batteries is nothing to sneeze at. More than likely, if someone is going to be taking shots at a POS from 250km to avoid your defenses, they've brought battleships and will take down your POS regardless of whether it's an Amarr or Minmatar tower. Autocannon batteries clearly have a greater max range due to their massive falloff, but they lose damage engaging literally any target because their optimal lies well within any POS's shields. Small pulse batteries do full damage out to 52km, which is far enough away that the tracking on beam laser batteries will allow damage application. I'd call this a wash, but others may differ.

4. Damage type selection clearly favors Minmatar. There's no argument there. Never having to reload your guns clearly favors Amarr. I tend to assume that people are lazy more often than not, so I tip the scale slightly in favor of Amarr there.


If all this is about small towers only and they use the least amount of fuel, why will their fuel demands shift the market? Because (at least based on what I've seen and heard) I think people are probably more likely to anchor one small POS as a throwaway instead of using a medium or large and having to commit more to it's defense and upkeep, and because I think people are going to tend more towards compression, and to a lesser extent research, over production in POSes post-Crius. If I'm wrong on any of those counts though, my predictions will go right out the window.

EDIT: I base my thoughts on people favoring small POSes on the small faction control tower prices at the moment. Last time I checked, "super"-faction small towers are selling for almost what their medium counterparts are.

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Kalarax
Lucifer's Forge
#5 - 2014-07-11 20:08:03 UTC
Bronson Hughes wrote:
1. With the removal of slots (and the proposed array stacking bonuses), Caldari small towers will no longer be the kings of small research POSes. All you need to do as much research at a POS as you want is one Research Lab and one Design Lab, and any small tower can support both of those at once.

Multiple structure bonuses were removed:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4786550#post4786550
Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#6 - 2014-07-11 20:21:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Bronson Hughes
Kalarax wrote:
Bronson Hughes wrote:
1. With the removal of slots (and the proposed array stacking bonuses), Caldari small towers will no longer be the kings of small research POSes. All you need to do as much research at a POS as you want is one Research Lab and one Design Lab, and any small tower can support both of those at once.

Multiple structure bonuses were removed:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4786550#post4786550


I'm aware (which is why I indicated that they were removed). But even without the stacking bonuses, if you want to do material/time research and copy/invent in the same POS, you'll still need one of each.

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Kalarax
Lucifer's Forge
#7 - 2014-07-11 21:18:25 UTC
Bronson Hughes wrote:
Kalarax wrote:
Bronson Hughes wrote:
1. With the removal of slots (and the proposed array stacking bonuses), Caldari small towers will no longer be the kings of small research POSes. All you need to do as much research at a POS as you want is one Research Lab and one Design Lab, and any small tower can support both of those at once.

Multiple structure bonuses were removed:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4786550#post4786550


I'm aware (which is why I indicated that they were removed). But even without the stacking bonuses, if you want to do material/time research and copy/invent in the same POS, you'll still need one of each.

My fault, sorry. I totally misread what you were stating.
Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#8 - 2014-07-11 21:49:54 UTC
Kalarax wrote:
My fault, sorry. I totally misread what you were stating.

No sorries. Looking back, it wasn't the most clear way to say it.

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Li Quiao
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#9 - 2014-07-11 22:11:56 UTC
Bronson Hughes wrote:
4. After Crius, the only service that a POS in hisec will be able to offer that will not be not available in any NPC station is mineral compression.


What about Reverse Engineering?
Josclyn Verreuil
Dark 0rder.
#10 - 2014-07-12 00:23:58 UTC
Bronson Hughes wrote:

5. The fuel block market is almost certainly going to shift. Relative demand for Caldari fuel will likely go down (in response to #1), while relative demand for Amarr fuel will likely go up (in response to #2). If the "Compression POS" market takes off enough, the overall demand for fuel blocks may well go up as well, especially given the myriad new hisec moons that will be available. If this market pressure lasts long enough, ice mining operations, and their associated industrial and market support, will likely shift away from Caldari space into Amarr space, putting Amarr on a more equal footing with Jita.



This isn't going to happen, because the higher demand for Caldari fuel is driven by large reaction POS's far more than it is by high sec research.

Now, if they at some point make non-caldari larges viable for running a simple+complex... then we could see a real shift in the fuel market.
Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#11 - 2014-07-12 11:03:38 UTC
Li Quiao wrote:
Bronson Hughes wrote:
4. After Crius, the only service that a POS in hisec will be able to offer that will not be not available in any NPC station is mineral compression.


What about Reverse Engineering?


I thought you could perform that in an NPC station facility like regular research. Interesting....

How much Reverse Engineering is done in hisec? I don't really see it talked about, and I don't think I've ever seen an Experimental Lab in a hisec POS.

Josclyn Verreuil wrote:
Bronson Hughes wrote:

5. The fuel block market is almost certainly going to shift. Relative demand for Caldari fuel will likely go down (in response to #1), while relative demand for Amarr fuel will likely go up (in response to #2). If the "Compression POS" market takes off enough, the overall demand for fuel blocks may well go up as well, especially given the myriad new hisec moons that will be available. If this market pressure lasts long enough, ice mining operations, and their associated industrial and market support, will likely shift away from Caldari space into Amarr space, putting Amarr on a more equal footing with Jita.



This isn't going to happen, because the higher demand for Caldari fuel is driven by large reaction POS's far more than it is by high sec research.

Now, if they at some point make non-caldari larges viable for running a simple+complex... then we could see a real shift in the fuel market.


This is something I hadn't considered. #5 was, by far, my most sweeping prediction, and therefore the most likely to fall flat on it's face.

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I predicted FAUXs

Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#12 - 2014-07-12 11:09:14 UTC
Bronson Hughes wrote:
Li Quiao wrote:
Bronson Hughes wrote:
4. After Crius, the only service that a POS in hisec will be able to offer that will not be not available in any NPC station is mineral compression.


What about Reverse Engineering?


I thought you could perform that in an NPC station facility like regular research. Interesting....

How much Reverse Engineering is done in hisec? I don't really see it talked about, and I don't think I've ever seen an Experimental Lab in a hisec POS.


No. Both reverse engineering and subsystem manufacture are POS-only. There's a lot of it done in highsec, most industrial POSs I've seen have an experimental lab and/or a subsystem assembly array.
Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#13 - 2014-07-12 14:37:48 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
No. Both reverse engineering and subsystem manufacture are POS-only. There's a lot of it done in highsec, most industrial POSs I've seen have an experimental lab and/or a subsystem assembly array.


Something else I didn't know. Apparently making sweeping prognostications is a good way to learn. Oops

I've updated the OP.

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Tzar Sinak
Mythic Heights
#14 - 2014-07-12 18:31:36 UTC
I am not fully versed on the dev blogs. You keep stating ore compression in hi sec towers. Will ore compression in NPC stations not be possible?

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Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#15 - 2014-07-12 20:22:13 UTC
Tzar Sinak wrote:
Will ore compression in NPC stations not be possible?


No, it will not.
Josclyn Verreuil
Dark 0rder.
#16 - 2014-07-13 00:02:45 UTC
Tzar Sinak wrote:
I am not fully versed on the dev blogs. You keep stating ore compression in hi sec towers. Will ore compression in NPC stations not be possible?


Nope, compression requires a compression array or rorq now. They're essentially killing 425mm rail compression by nerfing reprocessing of all modules.

Interestingly, this should also cause an increase in ore prices as it reduces the mineral input from loot.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#17 - 2014-07-13 03:54:11 UTC
Josclyn Verreuil wrote:
Tzar Sinak wrote:
I am not fully versed on the dev blogs. You keep stating ore compression in hi sec towers. Will ore compression in NPC stations not be possible?

Nope, compression requires a compression array or rorq now. They're essentially killing 425mm rail compression by nerfing reprocessing of all modules.

Interestingly, this should also cause an increase in ore prices as it reduces the mineral input from loot.

Well, the top-end ores in compressed form, like Dense Veldspar, are likely to skyrocket. The others are likely to rise moderately.

I personally look forward to hauling less than 17 Charon's full of Tritanium a week, via compressed ore.
Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#18 - 2014-07-13 13:09:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Bronson Hughes
Tau Cabalander wrote:
Well, the top-end ores in compressed form, like Dense Veldspar, are likely to skyrocket. The others are likely to rise moderately.

I personally look forward to hauling less than 17 Charon's full of Tritanium a week, via compressed ore.


I wonder if people switching to hauling compressed ore in smaller ships (or simply making fewer freighter runs) will decrease the rate of hisec freighter suicide ganks. Fewer people having to replace freighters could have a non-trivial influence on the market.

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Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#19 - 2014-07-13 15:57:28 UTC
Probably not. Ore hauled in freighters is seldom valuable enough to attract a profit-based gank. Might actually have the opposite effect. More ISK-worth of ore can be fit into a freighter after compression, so may see people trying to fly freighter-loads of compressed ore and getting ganked for that.
Salpad
Carebears with Attitude
#20 - 2014-07-14 07:19:18 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Probably not. Ore hauled in freighters is seldom valuable enough to attract a profit-based gank. Might actually have the opposite effect. More ISK-worth of ore can be fit into a freighter after compression, so may see people trying to fly freighter-loads of compressed ore and getting ganked for that.


An old Charon, 980k m3, full of low-end/basic ore, was roughly 200M ISK. Very rough ballpark figure, and from sometime like last year.

New Charon is slightly smaller but has the same EHP. Let's say 170M ISK just as a guesstimate.

What's the Crius compression ratio for ore?

If it's x15 then a new Charon can haul a bit over 2.5 billion ISK worth of ore. I'd say that's very gank-worthy.
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