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Dead Stock

Author
Vara Odunen
Aegis Defense Industries
#1 - 2014-06-25 01:19:22 UTC
So, a while back I bough a whole bunch of Ogre II's, because at that point the margin was around 30%, and the chart looked decent, the price was only just starting to rise. I went ahead and bought 150 of them. Just as my buy order completed and I put them up for sale (I manage to sell 2) the sell price started to plummet. Before I had any chance to respond the price fell below the price I bought them at. I now have about 150 million isk locked up in these Ogres, but if I sell them I will lose around 15 million isk. I'm currently trading with a total of 1.1 billion isk, which means that around 10% of my total value is locked up here, but I'm also new enough at this I don't really want to lose the isk. Any suggestions? What do you do in this kind of situation?
Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#2 - 2014-06-25 01:30:15 UTC
15m isk loss, game over man, GAME OVER
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#3 - 2014-06-25 01:31:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Elizabeth Norn
For as long as you're holding them the ISK they're worth is not earning a profit, and you don't know when the price will recover. If you can earn 10% per day on 150m then after just one day you are losing ISK by having it tied up in those items. If you really wanted to avoid a loss you could check out other market hubs or mission hubs, but items in those places tend to sell much slower, especially non-trade hubs.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#4 - 2014-06-25 01:37:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Sabriz Adoudel
If 150m is a small amount to you, sell them in a hub for the 135m and take the loss.

If 150m is a lot to you, take one third of them to each of three mission hubs and sell them there for 150-165m.


What you need to learn here is that, when an item is temporarily above its long-term average price, you need to know why it went up before buying. I remember that Ogre II spike - it's when I sold out of the market completely because I knew there had been minimal changes to underlying supply costs, and so I knew it was a short term spike.

Surprisingly, the Garde II spike lasted much longer.


Edit: FYI, build cost on Ogre IIs is around 450k/unit IIRC, may be a little lower, including all ancillary costs (invention, etc).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Vara Odunen
Aegis Defense Industries
#5 - 2014-06-25 02:05:08 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
For as long as you're holding them the ISK they're worth is not earning a profit, and you don't know when the price will recover. If you can earn 10% per day on 150m then after just one day you are losing ISK by having it tied up in those items. If you really wanted to avoid a loss you could check out other market hubs or mission hubs, but items in those places tend to sell much slower, especially non-trade hubs.


Ok, that's an excellent point I had not though of before
Vara Odunen
Aegis Defense Industries
#6 - 2014-06-25 02:10:37 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
If 150m is a small amount to you, sell them in a hub for the 135m and take the loss.

If 150m is a lot to you, take one third of them to each of three mission hubs and sell them there for 150-165m.


What you need to learn here is that, when an item is temporarily above its long-term average price, you need to know why it went up before buying. I remember that Ogre II spike - it's when I sold out of the market completely because I knew there had been minimal changes to underlying supply costs, and so I knew it was a short term spike.

Surprisingly, the Garde II spike lasted much longer.


Edit: FYI, build cost on Ogre IIs is around 450k/unit IIRC, may be a little lower, including all ancillary costs (invention, etc).


Yeah I think I've been caught by that trap a few times, though this is the only one where I've actually had a loss. I'll need to keep a closer eye out for it in the future
Derrick Miles
Death Rabbit Ky Oneida
#7 - 2014-06-25 02:22:38 UTC
If I were you I would sell them, take the loss, and consider it a valuable lesson. The risk with buying in bulk is that you won't be able to offload your items as quickly and if they're available in bulk it often means a manufacturer is flooding the market with them. Personally the metric I use most often for determining what to trade is the volume sold. If you can invest a similar amount of isk in something with half the profit margin, but flip it three times as often, you're making more for you investment. I'd look at items looted in pve and used often in pvp at trade hubs if you're looking for the kind of things to buy and sell quickly.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#8 - 2014-06-25 02:50:03 UTC
Derrick Miles wrote:
If I were you I would sell them, take the loss, and consider it a valuable lesson. The risk with buying in bulk is that you won't be able to offload your items as quickly and if they're available in bulk it often means a manufacturer is flooding the market with them. Personally the metric I use most often for determining what to trade is the volume sold. If you can invest a similar amount of isk in something with half the profit margin, but flip it three times as often, you're making more for you investment. I'd look at items looted in pve and used often in pvp at trade hubs if you're looking for the kind of things to buy and sell quickly.



I actually do buy bulk amounts of low-ish margin items often. I just make sure I understand how the item is produced, how it is consumed, and keep an eye on anything that I think might impact one or both of those factors.

I still make the odd mistake, but usually they are limited to buying stock for a billion and reselling it for 1.01b (wasting time), rather than having to resell at 850m (wasting time and capital).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Derrick Miles
Death Rabbit Ky Oneida
#9 - 2014-06-25 03:13:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Derrick Miles
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:

I actually do buy bulk amounts of low-ish margin items often. I just make sure I understand how the item is produced, how it is consumed, and keep an eye on anything that I think might impact one or both of those factors.

I still make the odd mistake, but usually they are limited to buying stock for a billion and reselling it for 1.01b (wasting time), rather than having to resell at 850m (wasting time and capital).


That's a good point, I didn't mean to imply that this wasn't a valid method of trading, only that as a new trader with limited capital it is generally safer to invest in items that move quickly since it isn't likely the price will swing so far as to make it unprofitable. Buying in bulk and selling over time is definitely a good strategy when you diversify and have a lot of capital spread out in a lot of areas, but for early-game trading I wouldn't recommend it.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#10 - 2014-06-25 04:15:36 UTC
Derrick Miles wrote:


That's a good point, I didn't mean to imply that this wasn't a valid method of trading, only that as a new trader with limited capital it is generally safer to invest in items that move quickly since it isn't likely the price will swing so far as to make it unprofitable. Buying in bulk and selling over time is definitely a good strategy when you diversify and have a lot of capital spread out in a lot of areas, but for early-game trading I wouldn't recommend it.



I don't pick up enormous amounts of stock, and it's usually things that I know I can certainly sell at cost. (Unless I'm seeing the purchase as market speculation, not trading).

For instance, every time Light Neutron Blaster IIs get under about 720k, I post enormous buy orders. If I can't sell them on sell orders, I know I can always sell them off at cost to other gankers (forgoing profit for the intangible rewards of public service).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Korgan Medel
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2014-06-25 06:18:33 UTC
As Norm said bite the bullet and get your money working for you again
Isaac Schwartz
Caldari State Venture Capital
#12 - 2014-06-25 06:34:21 UTC
Always always, if you need the ISK for something else just get rid and re-invest the ISK. I sometimes will hang on to stacks - but that's only because I'm not needing the ISK for another project.
Anne Kingston
a Blueprint Holding Corporation
#13 - 2014-06-26 02:50:33 UTC
You could buy even more and try to fill a bulk / wholesale contract order. Or see if anyone wants to buy the whole lot as it stands. You could Contract Auction too. You could gamble them away, start a contest, promote your business by giving them away for free.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#14 - 2014-06-26 03:13:11 UTC
Anne Kingston wrote:
You could buy even more and try to fill a bulk / wholesale contract order. Or see if anyone wants to buy the whole lot as it stands. You could Contract Auction too. You could gamble them away, start a contest, promote your business by giving them away for free.



Selling bulk contracts is usually a losing proposition unless you are selling to the end user.

A public contract for Light Neutron Blaster IIs will usually only go for 98-99% of buy order price (i.e. buy order, minus the new owner's taxes) and then you pay 1% in public item exchange contract taxes on top of that. But CODE. alliance or one of their FCs might buy your stock at 103% of buy order price as they are major end users.

Similarly, bulk Interdictors aren't going to sell at good prices in a highsec hub, but get in contact with an alliance logistician, and they may want to buy your 500 hulls.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Anne Kingston
a Blueprint Holding Corporation
#15 - 2014-06-26 04:03:39 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
But CODE. alliance or one of their FCs might buy your stock at 103% of buy order price as they are major end users.

Similarly, bulk Interdictors aren't going to sell at good prices in a highsec hub, but get in contact with an alliance logistician, and they may want to buy your 500 hulls.


This would probably be OPs most lucrative bet though requires a bit of networking skill she may not have aquired yet. Though no one said Trading could sell Amarr in a day.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#16 - 2014-06-26 05:32:04 UTC
Anne Kingston wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
But CODE. alliance or one of their FCs might buy your stock at 103% of buy order price as they are major end users.

Similarly, bulk Interdictors aren't going to sell at good prices in a highsec hub, but get in contact with an alliance logistician, and they may want to buy your 500 hulls.


This would probably be OPs most lucrative bet though requires a bit of networking skill she may not have aquired yet. Though no one said Trading could sell Amarr in a day.


Ogre II end users are very disparate individuals, which is one of the reasons I have never bought more than a few hundred at a time.

They are used and lost by mission runners, a minority of empire suicide gankers, low/null complex runners, and solo/small gang PVPers. None of these groups are particularly organised (except the gankers but it is a minority of us that use Vexors and hence Ogres).

So yeah, I'd just post them in a trade hub or a mission hub, and dump to sell orders if the ISK must be freed up now. (You can try manipulating sell orders up before dumping on them - if the current spread were 710k-780k, I'd place an order to buy 20 at 735k in a lowsec system in the same region, then post a buy order at 735000.01 in the hub, hoping someone comes along and 0.01 ISKs the single buy order before it is filled, then you dump stock on them and cancel the lowsec buy order).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com