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Mexallon prices
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Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#1 - 2011-12-05 02:47:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
A few facts that I think most people will agree on:

1) Mexallon went up (peaked at 47 ask i think) because of high demand for tier 3 battlecruisers
2) Demand for BCs fell off from about 6000 units per day to about 1600 so far
3) ME1,2,3 for BCs will roll out shortly. ME1 is probably already at work but at a relatively small volume. So people who are buying mex now to build BCs off of ME0 are at risk to lose ISK

Question is why is mex still at 41? Seems like anyone who is holding mex and not using it for very rapid production should dump now, since the likelihood of a price drop seems very high. Am i missing something here?
Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#2 - 2011-12-05 04:44:09 UTC
Dream Five wrote:

Question is why is mex still at 41? Seems like anyone who is holding mex and not using it for very rapid production should dump now, since the likelihood of a price drop seems very high. Am i missing something here?




Yes.


You're assuming the majority of EVE's populace is smart.
Lucinda Hamu
Doomheim
#3 - 2011-12-05 08:44:11 UTC
Loraine Gess wrote:
Dream Five wrote:

Question is why is mex still at 41? Seems like anyone who is holding mex and not using it for very rapid production should dump now, since the likelihood of a price drop seems very high. Am i missing something here?



Yes.

You're assuming the majority of EVE's populace is smart.


Brilliant and oh so true.
Kandreath
De Re Metallica
#4 - 2011-12-05 09:00:19 UTC
It's great watching it all happen. Pity I didn't look hard enough to stockpile minerals though. Next time perhaps.
Roger Alar
Insert name 22
#5 - 2011-12-05 09:47:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Roger Alar
Mex actualy reached 58 at its highest point but that only last for a few hours till the frezy to sell had drove it down to 47
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#6 - 2011-12-05 11:06:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Tasko Pal
On a related note, some expansions with tech 1 stuff (or loot/drone poo nerfing, etc) seem to have one or two minerals pop up greatly in price. Using our amazing power of hindsight about the new bc and other stuff, was there any clues to indicate that mex would be this expansion's whack-a-mole?
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#7 - 2011-12-05 13:52:51 UTC
Tasko Pal wrote:
On a related note, some expansions with tech 1 stuff (or loot/drone poo nerfing, etc) seem to have one or two minerals pop up greatly in price. Using our amazing power of hindsight about the new bc and other stuff, was there any clues to indicate that mex would be this expansion's whack-a-mole?


Looking at the stats on Singularity is the best way to see. Do a rough estimate of materials vs supply, make a bet on the market.
Tanya Powers
Doomheim
#8 - 2011-12-05 13:55:07 UTC
The demand will go like crazy in a few weeks once big industrials will have they r BPO's researched, time to make iskies Lol
Max Flipper
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#9 - 2011-12-05 16:05:07 UTC
Tanya Powers wrote:
The demand will go like crazy in a few weeks once big industrials will have they r BPO's researched, time to make iskies Lol


I don't see a reason why the demand should go higher then it is right now.
That doesn't mean Mineral Prices can't go up though (Reserves being used up, Drone Anomalie nerf).
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#10 - 2011-12-05 20:31:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
Tasko Pal wrote:
On a related note, some expansions with tech 1 stuff (or loot/drone poo nerfing, etc) seem to have one or two minerals pop up greatly in price. Using our amazing power of hindsight about the new bc and other stuff, was there any clues to indicate that mex would be this expansion's whack-a-mole?


No didn't see this coming :) Although with 20/20 hindsight you could look at BPOs and say, aha!, high mex ratio for these puppies.
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#11 - 2011-12-05 20:33:53 UTC
Tanya Powers wrote:
The demand will go like crazy in a few weeks once big industrials will have they r BPO's researched, time to make iskies Lol


That's supply :)
Berluth Luthian
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#12 - 2011-12-05 20:53:49 UTC
Any thoughts on the ramifications of the TII module changes? Is there anything common to all of them that would spike anything?
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#13 - 2011-12-05 21:59:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Tasko Pal
Berluth Luthian wrote:
Any thoughts on the ramifications of the TII module changes? Is there anything common to all of them that would spike anything?


Datacores. Might be some moon goo effects, but these module all seem to be light on T2 components. I did notice a bit of the rare T2 moon minerals rising in price, but that might just be opportunistic manipulation/speculation.

Edit: glancing at the markets, I was mistaken on moon goo going up.
Esan Vartesa
Samarkand Financial
#14 - 2011-12-05 22:37:34 UTC
Dream Five wrote:
Tanya Powers wrote:
The demand will go like crazy in a few weeks once big industrials will have they r BPO's researched, time to make iskies Lol


That's supply :)


In production, one man's supply is another man's demand for constituent parts.

Demand for mexallon will likely climb again, though it will be a much smoother curve as all those BPOs come out of labs everywhere.

As mentioned above, people are stupid. While the demand for the new BCs will have tapered well off by then, people with freshly-researched BPOs will still race to manufacture a ton of them. Good time to sell mexallon and buy BCs.