Market Discussions

With the Crius release just over 6 weeks away we’re starting to get a feel for the impact it will have on the EVE Online markets. One of the biggest changes announced was that invention would only produce positive ME and TE BPOs. This effectively reduces the base gap between invention and T2 BPOs from almost 50% to 10%.

Compare this to the best case for invention scenario which is a +3 ME decryptor which puts ME at -1 previous or 3% ME under the new system, a -1 ME BPC is effectively 20% waste currently. Then for arguments sake we’ll presume that the T2 BPO is almost perfectly researched with zero waste under both the old and new systems so ME 10%.

This means that we’ll be looking at 7% gap between build cost for invention and T2 BPOs, slightly more once you add on invention costs. When you compare this to where we’re currently at with a 20% gap at best case this makes things extremely interesting and it may open up markets that are dominated by BPO owners such as Commandships to invention. The difference will be even more apparent for module invention which on the whole is done at -4ME currently so a 50% waste when compared to the almost 0% waste of T2 BPOs. What this ultimately means is invention gets a massive boost in its effectiveness.

At the same time however we’ll now see decryptors go from improving material requirements for invention from 30% to 3% an extremely large drop. What this will mean is that decryptor traditionally used for Blackops, Marauders and Jump Freighters should begin to fall in price as players no longer need to use them to make a profit. In fact you could easily interchange a Incognito Process for Incognito Accelerant whilst building an Anshar choosing to lose roughly 50mil in profit in exchange for a 10% reduction in build time, this roughly balances out as both Accelerants and Process decryptors being as profitable as each other on an ISK per hour basis.

Ultimately decryptor usage price will drop to reflect the reduction in savings from their usage, so we should expect  to see the prices drop on all ME gaining decryptors which includes Optimized Augmentation, Symmetry, Process, Accelerant, Parity and Optimized Attainment decryptors.

We’re also likely to start to see decryptors such Incognito Augmentation starting to come into play more often with a 2% addition to material costs being covered for by the reduction in invention costs. Take for example Anshar production if each Obelisk BPC costs 20mil after the patch for example then a batch of 10 costs 200mil, with the standard incognito process you will average about 4 successful invention jobs for about 2bil profit. Meanwhile if you do the same with the Incognito Augmentation you’ll get 2 10 run BPCs so 20 ships each at 400mil profit per unit (based on 1% ME being roughly 50mil material costs) so 8bil potential profit from a single batch of invention.

Currently I believe that the most important factors post release will be the run modifier (balanced against the chance modifier) and the final TE which will have a large swing over profit per hour.

Overall there will be a lot of movement in the prices as players begin to adapt I’ve already started to speculate and purchase the decryptors which have a chance of becoming more valuable after the patch and with the decryptors as low as 250k there really is very little risk of getting in getting it wrong. Next week the first of the Crius builds will be hitting Singularity for us to test and it won’t take long for players to start to figure out which decryptors are going to win and lose from these changes and the market will adapt even before release as players learn more of the changes to come in Crius.

Decryptors are being completely changed/overhauled afaik. First details should arrive on June 10th I believe, so I'm holding off any of my own speculation until at least then.

Probably a good idea. Just too many ways decryptors can be retasked/repurposed in the new system. They could all magically be changed into "Efficiency Engineers" that lower taxes. Not that I think CCP would be that radical, to change a 'metal box' into a 'human being', but it is a game, and it is fiction, who knows what could happen.

Except like CCP said, all the decryptors are slated to change, so your decisions are based on invalid data.

Hey man, all info I used is public and has been the whole time. :) Start with greyscale's blueprint data thread in the S&I forum, modify build cost as discussed in that, calculate the resulting build time as well as total copy/invention (to reflect multiple attempts based on decryptor use) for every decryptor for each class of item, then calculate isk/hr and work out which one is best.

The trick is figuring out how prices will change in light of the materials changes, which is what made me ultimately shy away and decide to take my profit now. Tht assumption you make on price changes changes the decryptor to use.