Market Discussions

Columns G-J should be ignored, because they are based on a production strategy that no longer makes any kind of sense under the new tax regime. (The Production strategy underlying them was a market & tariffs that strongly supported horizontal integration and very weak vertical integration of production.)

I've hidden them for now, (they may return later when reworked for a different strategy I have in mind).



Very much so, that was the case even without the tariff rise, those underline things. I see prices continuing to rise over the short term (1-2 weeks) to at least the following:

P0 : worthlessness, I've long said this but it should now be obvious for even for the most innumerate.
P1 : 800
P2 : 12-16,000
P3 : 120-140,000
P4 : 2M +
I expect outliers (pos fuels) will spiking higher.

Medium term (1-2 months), prices could easily go much higher if if there is any attrition warfare, against interbus CO on enemy territory.

Longer term (3+ months), the opportunity to stock up on P4 and gantries should I insulate prices from any attrition, and I expect pries to settle towards those short term prices.

The report of



Making my 6k POCO demand look very modest.

My estimates:

P0 - still worthless to export, turn it into P1 and have 1/4 the haul volume.

P1 - The low priced stuff will have to rise to at least 250 ISK/u. The high priced stuff might move up another 50-85 ISK/u. That puts P1 prices at 250-900 ISK, with 700 ISK as a broad baseline.

P2 - It takes 16 P1 to make a P2. So 700 * 16 + 900 ISK/u tariff + 5% profit = about 13k. Some P2 will be lower at 9k, some will be higher at 15k, but overall most of it will end up around 13k +/- 1k. I think that will get shaved back down to 11-12k by the end of December as people adjust.

P3 - It takes 6.67 to 10 units of P2 to make a P3. Export tariff is 7000 ISK/u. So the 2-input P3 would end up at at 98k and 3-input P3 might end up around 140k. But I expect the market to revolt a bit at that price and people will instead make P3 from P1 inputs. Making P3 from P1 in hi-sec saves you anywhere from 9k to 13.5k ISK/u in tariffs on each unit of P3. So instead of 140k at the upper-end, I expect that to end up more in the 120-125k range, with the average being around 100k.

P4 - Bit fuzzier here, but the low-end would probably be no less then 1.2M ISK/u with the high end at around 2M ISK/u. Hi-sec factories will have to rework to make P4 from P2 in order to avoid the P3 tariffs.

The main reasons I think P1 will end up around 700 instead of 1000 ISK/u number:

- PI harvesting is still a low-skill endeavor. Train CCU4 and IPC4 and optionally Planetology III and you're done. That's about 4 days of skill training.

- Setting up a PI harvest planet only costs about 6.5M ISK for a CCU4 world. Payback is only 7-10 days. Low investment.

- Last summer, people were willing to do hi-sec PI harvesting for as little as 600k ISK/day. Now they're making closer to 1M ISK/day. Unless they get tired of spending 5-10 minutes every other day to reset 5 planets, that supply will continue.

For most new players learning how to make 4-5M ISK/day from 5 hi-sec planets is a big deal. At less then 2 months in-game, a few million ISK is still a lot if they play less then 10 hours per week. We're constantly teaching people in our channels how to setup PI harvest colonies as a step stone into putting them more in control of their own destiny. So there will always be new players entering the supply side.

However, the long-term impact of POCOs on lo-sec P1 supply has yet to be seen/felt. But without a dev-post, we have no way of knowing how much P1 production was done in hi/low/null/w space. My guess is that at least 50-70% of the P1 materials come from hi-sec planets. But nobody knows.

There's also an extremely high demand on the PI system at the moment from everyone wanting to build POCOs. So I don't think my predictions will come true until January after the markets stabilize around the new tariffs / supply / demand.

I suspect most of these are simply the local owners removing Interbus to put up their own.

You seem to be discarding the option to generate P2 directly on the harvest planet. In my limited experience, that should work fine. At least well enough to undercut P1->P2 factory planets. Any reason not to do it?

That might be a thing in lowsec, but it's unacceptably risky in 0.0. Sitting your fleet on a celestial is a good way to stuck in a situation you don't want to be in with no exit plan.

Enough scouts to be sure you're safe to loiter in an age of cynos and titan bridges is enough scouts to find you some ~goodfights~

above poster....you are asking for it with a capital A. Sorry to say but I can already hear it exploding...

Prices will adjust accordingly. Also, you say being able toa adjust taxes is a 'good' thing because you seem to assume people will just turn it all the way down to 0%.....That is a VERY faulty assumption and is an indicator that you may not be fully aware of the way things work in non-highsec.

Now, strength and gang blob war pretty much rules low and nullsec, even WH, so there is a good chance that some alliance or another will simply destroy any non-alliance POCO and set their own poco, tell people that 'if you want to do pi in these resource-rich planets in non-highsec, you are going to have to pay taxes to US (remember taxes in pocos go directly to pockets of whoever owns them) above the rates of highsec corresponding with richer planets'. Already one alliance has announced it is considering 'nationalizing' the PI industry.

People will be counting their lucky stars if they can even get the taxes down to the high sec level. In fact, the general assumption before the patch was there was little reason for non-highsec entities to NOT charge a full 100% tax rate, seeing as non-highsec can potentially overwhelm high sec in terms of supply resources if fully utilized, and therefore can afford to charge 100% taxes and still direct the market prices as they wish due to being the supplier of such large portion of the p1 and perhaps p2 market. It was already established that substantial amount of raw and processed resources originate not from highsec, but from non-highsec spaces.

Edit: you probably still made profit from that haul, at least a little. prices are adjusting, and it's barely been 5 days since patch came out. be patient.

Someone said: If these estimates are accurate, there is massive room for trading right now - on anything that contains a lot of PI stuff (either directly or indirectly). P4 materials being the biggest... I mean, POS gear is going to go up a lot. Hello 400M control towers?

I wish I'd have more liquid isk on hand... but I guess I need to be happy with the massive piles I'm going to make now, confident that next time a patch like this hits, I have even more liquid isk to take advantage of market shifts :D "

Man you are 2 months late !!

I wave to you with 4534 units of Organic Mortar Applicators all made by myself and 2 alts in lowsec in last 2 months.
I'll show you my new shinny Jump Frieghter and a Carrier when prices will be high enough to dump all things on market

The big unknown is how many people do/will do PI in 0.0 (and maybe Lowsec) with their own low-tax Custom offices.

I don't know how big the demand is for P4 in comparison to the lower tiers. But i can very well imagine that 0.0 combined with lowsec could match it once the current Spike to replace Interbus offices is over.

If you have a low tax office you could simply buy P3 in empire and churm out as many P4's as possible.

I think thats an factor this discussion has been completely ignoring so far.
While i'm not sure if it will make a big difference its something that should not be dismissed.

Just checked your sheet again this evening and found it having incorrect import taxes on the PI page. Showing for example importing of 40 P1 goods as 20,000 tax where it should be 10,000 and 20,000 total to make a P2 product, not 40,000...unless they just screwed us again?

I'm assuming it's still using :

* Advanced Commodities: 1,350,000.00 ISK
* Specialized Commodities: 70,000.00 ISK
* Refined Commodities: 9,000.00 ISK
* Basic commodities: 500.00 ISK
* Planet Resources: 5,00 ISK

As a base, half of the listed price is what is charged for import, listed as export? If so it means your sheet is reading as import = export price, not half of.

The sheet may of been messed with I guess because it was all listed as correct import/export prices yesterday when I last checked it.

EDIT:

Also I think I may be having a MASSIVE brain fart here from lack of sleep or something but help me out here with this guesstimation someone:

Assume I want to make coolant.

Here are hte prices:
Electrolytes: 540 ISK
Water: 340 ISK
Coolant: 11,800 ISK

40 water = 21,600
40 Electrolytes = 13,600

Import tax: (250 * 0.1) x 40 x 2 = 2,000

Export tax: (9,000 * 0.1) x 5 = 4,500

Total cost: 41,700 ISK

Product made: 5 coolant = 59,000

Total Profit: 17,300 / cycle

Now I may of messed up and if I have please tell me where so I can fix it and what not. The 0.1 in the tax thing is due to current taxes and such with CONCORD.

I don't know why but it just feels wrong somehow.

Cool my numbers where roughly right, tghat sheet just totally threw me and being tired as hell didnt help too much either lol