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Dev blog: The Price of Change

First post First post
Author
AFK Hauler
State War Academy
#661 - 2014-05-06 20:22:11 UTC
[Rant]

It will be next to impossible to make a profit with manufacturing in EVE for several months if these changes go live.

I see an exodus of manufacturing players leaving the profession a and dumping their current stocks on the market at or below the proposed cost increases. This will further cause stress on the remaining industry players and will squeeze more of them out of the profession.

After several months, those who remain might survive to build another day.... or just go mining.


[/rant]



tl;dr - The wheel is becoming square.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#662 - 2014-05-06 20:35:29 UTC
Babbet Bunny wrote:
Multi-run discount:

Simplified math is:

Per run cost = (base run cost)*EXP(-0.01*(Hours production after first))

So at 25 runs a TE 10 per run cost is 10% greater than a TE 0?

Suggesting changing the simple math to:

Per run cost = (base run cost)*EXP(-0.01*(Runs -1))

Or I would suggest not researching TE.
TE 10 will ruin your profit margin.


I read "hours" in the initial formula as a generic time (how many prior runs...

That is, the 100th run (99 complete) would be .99^99 or 35% the price of the first run.

But yeah, I probably misunderstood... If it is literally hours, then... yeah... you want your jobs to take LONGER.

But remember, it is 10% of fees, which themselves are probably going to be around 7% of produced output value. And the 10th being 10% cheaper, averaged across all runs would eb like 5% for the whole job. SO... 7% * 5% = 0.35% of produced goods.
Babbet Bunny
#663 - 2014-05-06 20:55:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Babbet Bunny
Korthan Doshu wrote:

You know, when the dev blog clearly stated that they will be capping the bonus and raising the cap based on ME skill, it makes me lose patience that you ask for a link on a math change. RTFDB.

See here or below with bolded relevant part:

CCP Greyscale wrote:
Multi-run discount: makes each subsequent run of a given job cost a little less than the last, mainly to give another small thing that industrialists can optimize for once they've got the basics under control. For each run, the job cost is multiplied by 0.99 raised to the power of however many hours (or fractions thereof) the job will already have run at that point. This is calculated at installation time and therefore the job doesn't actually change price over time. Rather, we do the math up front. We're looking to cap the maximum bonus of this using the old Material Efficiency skill, which will no longer be affecting waste (see previous blog).

Let's build five at once. With a build time of 4 hours, our average cost per run drops to 6.93m.




Math is the same.

From the example at TE 0 each battleships cost 6.93m each to install. TE 20 battleships would cost 7.04m each to install at an NPC station and 7.15m at a POS.

And that 10% of fees use to be profit margin.
Odoya
Aeon Abraxas
#664 - 2014-05-06 21:44:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Odoya
Typhoon Tess wrote:
It seems that CCP want to make T2 bpc more readily available thus are implementing changes. I understand that the T2 bpo are held by only a few older players in comparison to total players within Eve. Now this brings the question how many T2 bpo are actually left in circulation and what variety?

The people to gain from these changes will be the owners of the originals So are we changing a system so dramatically for the few?. I see at no point will I have enough invented T2 bpc to want to sell any on the markets.

The invention process requires items that are not easily aquired other than paying large prices for the data cores decryptors. If we do turn to market to buy the items demand will soon push the prices up thus making a T2 copy will be stupid amounts of isk. We also need to cover the failures and loss of this isk.

If you want more T2 bpc on market then make the invention mats as common as ore.

I generally resent it when I set out to make achievements required to better my position within the game itself as in grinding standings to place a pos and lower tax etc to have it belittled and the benefits removed.

As for suggestions as to a pos I still think standings in high sec should apply make unlimited slots in stations but give the pos a dedicated role or 2 maybe we can invent our reasearched bpo into a T2 bpo at pos only, making it possible but not easy to get success. If standings is an issue then change the standings for a corp so they don't need as high to place pos more members less standing required to a point.

By removing pos from the game as well as the sideline economy being ice mining and pi fuel sales building of pos modules to sell and placeing no incentives back in place so the very few will produce more T2 to sell is not a wise move in my books.

The above may well work and prices will drop from oversupply thus no reasons for invention anymore another area people will loose income from data cores decryptors due to an ease on demand.

If the changes have desired effect then a new player will be all but equal to my several years of indy skills.Granted I can research more R&D agents maybe fly a bigger ship mine a little more but my bpo library is worth less and time spent on it , as well as lost isk on fuel to research them is a nice kick in the teeth.

Like all I will either find a way to adapt but pvp for this account is not a reality and may be one less account to worry paying for.

As a trade off since bpo are npc controlled prices make these cost more making attaining a library more expensive that way those of us who have will not be loosing so much with the changes. If you need to take from those who invest in industry at least give us some area we can have an awww factor.

The above is from my perspective of the game the areas I have concentrated my efforts and directed my isk as a solo indy toon running a pos. It took a long time and many months of effort to be in a position to do this. I did not invest isk into a plex for account as there was not enough after buying bpo and fuel. But free up my expenses and plexing account becomes easy. less income for ccp.



It seems crazy that CCP is seemingly disinterested in addressing this kind of concern.

The notion that T2 has to be "fixed" or that working in inflation will solve a problem that doesn't exist is a case yet to be made by CCP. Utlimately, the EULA does not require CCP to be equitable, but WOW-ifying the market will kill or greatly change the genius of this facet of the game. The fact that arbitrary inflation will decrease the value of ingame wealth is most interesting and I think betrays the pecuniary intrerests at play. CCP publishes estimates the dollar value of big fleet losses, not the retention rate of subscribers.

Conspiracy theories aside, T2 frigate markets maybe enjoy a 15% ROI on a good day (with %5 with correct intelligence and perfect or near optimum throughput. It's hardly unbalanced given that the returns and investments to be present in the market are so substantial.

Dealing with T2 BPC concerns could be addressed by simply increasing the invention rate success rates. Invention success rates never match manufacturing slot potentials. In this regard, a player never has optimum throughput like a T1 manufacturer potentially has.
ElectronHerd Askulf
Aridia Logistical Misdirection
#665 - 2014-05-06 22:50:29 UTC
OK, now that I've stopped waiting for those numbers Greyscale said he was sending out and started putting together estimation spreadsheets, I've got to say that turning the formula into a series is mathematically ugly and an insult to your favorite spreadsheet jockies. It's fine in the code generating the cost algorithmically, but I've spent 20 years avoiding ******* around with macros in spreadsheets and I'd rather not start now, I've already written more Eve-related code this week than I care to admit.

That and it is pretty damned silly how quickly that thing cuts the cost down. The sooner you can get us details around where and how you intend to cap that out (and details on POS bonuses/caps, and overall production numbers) the better. Please, for the love of god, tell us what you plan before it becomes a fait accompli.
Typhoon Tess
Stole Your Candy
#666 - 2014-05-07 02:23:23 UTC
As a side note to my previous post I do have an area I am confused in. There were changes implemented with how ice belts spawn. This was to create a hole in high sec namely only 80% of ice needs met to fuel a pos .

This from one view point may be a model designed to push people into low and null sec but at the end of the day to get some of us there requires more incentive than making things cost more.

I would argue that the ice changes was a way to force corps down to individual players to invest more time or isk into resources needed to maintain an operation and this initself should have an effect on how many did or did not plex their accounts.

Granted some will say I am grabbing at straws but why change the way ice spawns then remove the largest needability for it?.

As a business giving a game away for free is non proffitable and a hard way to stay in business so CCP does need to protect its bottom line so we can go on enjoying all this game has to offer.

To date I have not found a game so comprehensive as eve nor enjoyable that has been so free of costs.Most games you need to buy gold and not that much for your dollars to pay fixed prices that are payed to and controlled by the game makers.
While here you can buy the isk with your dollars and give them to me or maybe one of your mates.

It would be refreshing if there are concerns from CCP about loss of income vs inflation etc to be open and discuss ways we can all achieve a state of happiness.

The test from the update will be felt by those like me who collect mats be it salvaging scanning or buying cheap on the market to build a decent inventory so we can invent reverse engineer or build our inventions etc.

I may not have plexed my accounts but on this account alone my theoretical asset base if sold at top dollar is around 80B

Either way top dollar or not I can sell and pay for a few plex's to cover pilots licence and this is not the way I should be thinking in regards to upcomming changes.
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#667 - 2014-05-07 02:32:34 UTC
Babbet Bunny wrote:
Korthan Doshu wrote:

You know, when the dev blog clearly stated that they will be capping the bonus and raising the cap based on ME skill, it makes me lose patience that you ask for a link on a math change. RTFDB.

See here or below with bolded relevant part:

CCP Greyscale wrote:
Multi-run discount: makes each subsequent run of a given job cost a little less than the last, mainly to give another small thing that industrialists can optimize for once they've got the basics under control. For each run, the job cost is multiplied by 0.99 raised to the power of however many hours (or fractions thereof) the job will already have run at that point. This is calculated at installation time and therefore the job doesn't actually change price over time. Rather, we do the math up front. We're looking to cap the maximum bonus of this using the old Material Efficiency skill, which will no longer be affecting waste (see previous blog).

Let's build five at once. With a build time of 4 hours, our average cost per run drops to 6.93m.




Math is the same.

From the example at TE 0 each battleships cost 6.93m each to install. TE 20 battleships would cost 7.04m each to install at an NPC station and 7.15m at a POS.

And that 10% of fees use to be profit margin.


There is no "each". Each run has its own multiplier, and the whole thing is rolled together. For example, for a TE0 Apocalypse with market value of 170,000,000 at congestion tax of 5% would be

Run# hrs# bonus for that run tax
1 0 0 8.5mil
2 4 .99^4=96.06 8.2mil
3 8 .99^8=92.27 7.8mil
4 12 .99^12=88.64 7.5mil
5 16 .99^16=85.15 7.2mil
6 20 .99^20=81.79 7.0mil
7 24 .99^24=78.57 6.8mil
8 28 .99^28=75.47 6.4mil
9 32 .99^32=72.50 6.2mil
10 36 .99^36=69.64 5.9mil
average tax: 7.15mil

TE of 20%
Run# hrs# bonus for that run tax
1 0 0 8.5mil
2 3.2 .99^3.2=96.84 8.2mil
3 6.4 .99^6.4=93.77 8.0mil
4 9.6 .99^9.6=90.80 7.7mil
5 12.8 .99^12.8=87.93 7.5mil
6 16.0 .99^16.0=85.15 7.2mil
7 19.2 .99^19.2=82.45 7.0mil
8 22.4 .99^22.4=79.84 6.8mil
9 25.6 .99^25.6=77.31 6.6mil
10 28.8 .99^28.8=74.87 6.4mil
average tax: 7.39mil

You're looking at an average difference of 240,000 ISK per run, which is a whopping .14% of an Apocalypse. Yeah, TE 20% is a real mistake. (No, no it's not. Ever.)

But that leads to the other point. If the multirun discount is capped at, say, 10%, then nothing past hour 10 would matter. So the difference would really come down.

That's why all the math is speculative until they give us the final numbers.
Kusum Fawn
Perkone
Caldari State
#668 - 2014-05-07 02:36:33 UTC
Typhoon Tess wrote:
As a side note to my previous post I do have an area I am confused in. There were changes implemented with how ice belts spawn. This was to create a hole in high sec namely only 80% of ice needs met to fuel a pos .

This from one view point may be a model designed to push people into low and null sec but at the end of the day to get some of us there requires more incentive than making things cost more.

I would argue that the ice changes was a way to force corps down to individual players to invest more time or isk into resources needed to maintain an operation and this initself should have an effect on how many did or did not plex their accounts.

Granted some will say I am grabbing at straws but why change the way ice spawns then remove the largest needability for it?.

As a business giving a game away for free is non proffitable and a hard way to stay in business so CCP does need to protect its bottom line so we can go on enjoying all this game has to offer.

To date I have not found a game so comprehensive as eve nor enjoyable that has been so free of costs.Most games you need to buy gold and not that much for your dollars to pay fixed prices that are payed to and controlled by the game makers.
While here you can buy the isk with your dollars and give them to me or maybe one of your mates.

It would be refreshing if there are concerns from CCP about loss of income vs inflation etc to be open and discuss ways we can all achieve a state of happiness.

The test from the update will be felt by those like me who collect mats be it salvaging scanning or buying cheap on the market to build a decent inventory so we can invent reverse engineer or build our inventions etc.

I may not have plexed my accounts but on this account alone my theoretical asset base if sold at top dollar is around 80B

Either way top dollar or not I can sell and pay for a few plex's to cover pilots licence and this is not the way I should be thinking in regards to upcomming changes.


Part of your post seems to indicate a strange idea that EVE is free, or offered in a free format.

It is not.

Eve is a subscription game where game time in the form of PLEX can be bought and sold on the ingame market, however, those items must be first bought by a player using real currency from CCP or CCP approved reseller. Even if you, have never spent a real dollar on the game, the plex that you are using to keep your subscription going was at one point bought by another person from CCP.

All of the PLEX are player bought Month long blocks of game time.

Another point that I want to address from your post, is that the failure of the NeXt store and the addition of Arum as an ingame currency are moves by CCP to pull more money from players. Microtransactions are currently very popular in games right now, and encouraging players to buy PLEX (Pilot License Extensions 30 day), or GTC (Game Time Cards 60 day) is exactly what CCP is trying to do.

Whether or not you play thinking of how you can afford the next month of game time is not nearly as important to CCP as the fact that you buy in one way or another, the next month.

Its not possible to please all the people all the time, but it sure as hell is possible to Displease all the people, most of the time.

Typhoon Tess
Stole Your Candy
#669 - 2014-05-07 03:07:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Typhoon Tess
Part of your post seems to indicate a strange idea that EVE is free, or offered in a free format.

It is not.

Eve is a subscription game where game time in the form of PLEX can be bought and sold on the ingame market, however, those items must be first bought by a player using real currency from CCP or CCP approved reseller. Even if you, have never spent a real dollar on the game, the plex that you are using to keep your subscription going was at one point bought by another person from CCP.

All of the PLEX are player bought Month long blocks of game time.



[/quote]

I understand that but currently I am paying cash to them if I start to plex the plex is on the market already so ccp will loose my subscription component.
As for value for money in most games you buy the weapons repairs or other decent game items from the game makers and generally there is way less gain for the money spent. No other player gets a benefit directly from the investment.

Here you may buy the plex but then that plex benefits another player by gaining real money value from it.

Most games separate game currency from bought currency
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#670 - 2014-05-07 16:23:38 UTC
Typhoon Tess wrote:


I understand that but currently I am paying cash to them if I start to plex the plex is on the market already so ccp will loose my subscription component.


Without that PLEX on the market, the price of PLEX will increase in ISK terms. This increasing price will cause some that PLEX to pay cash, or some that grind ISK to just buy a PLEX with real and sell it in game so that they do not have to grind.

Of course, some may unsub accounts if the price of PLEX becomes too high, so it really comes back to total subbed accounts, as every subbed account, CCP got paid for, one way or another.
Sigras
Conglomo
#671 - 2014-05-09 00:06:24 UTC
Has any additional thought been put to a bonus for multiple starbase arrays?
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#672 - 2014-05-09 03:45:39 UTC
I sure hope not because getting to run as many as you want through one is a great buff already. vOv
Sigras
Conglomo
#673 - 2014-05-09 10:06:13 UTC
well what I suggested isnt so much of a buff anyway, just an incentive for people to run more than one of each module as that is all they should ever need as it stands right now.

The gist of it is to give a 10% reduction to labor cost of installing a job in a POS, but charge an extra 1% for every job running in that array, so the formula would look something like this:

LaborCost = JobCost * 0.9 * 1.01^JobsInArray
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#674 - 2014-05-09 11:58:37 UTC
But have you thought through the possibility that arrays won't be as good anymore because slots? In other words, if you make people use multiple arrays instead of just one, the fuel costs implied by that will much more easily result in nobody putting up a POS because the core justification for a POS--copy/ME slots--is gone.
Sigras
Conglomo
#675 - 2014-05-09 16:06:51 UTC
Korthan Doshu wrote:
But have you thought through the possibility that arrays won't be as good anymore because slots? In other words, if you make people use multiple arrays instead of just one, the fuel costs implied by that will much more easily result in nobody putting up a POS because the core justification for a POS--copy/ME slots--is gone.

1. that idea is actually providing a discount from the way it is now for the first 9-10 jobs in each array
2. you mean other than not paying for the station tax?
3. you mean other than the 30-50% research speed increase?
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#676 - 2014-05-09 19:21:46 UTC
Sigras wrote:
Korthan Doshu wrote:
But have you thought through the possibility that arrays won't be as good anymore because slots? In other words, if you make people use multiple arrays instead of just one, the fuel costs implied by that will much more easily result in nobody putting up a POS because the core justification for a POS--copy/ME slots--is gone.

1. that idea is actually providing a discount from the way it is now for the first 9-10 jobs in each array
2. you mean other than not paying for the station tax?
3. you mean other than the 30-50% research speed increase?


I know the temptation to post without going through the whole thread is strong, but RTFT. You might have seen this post:

Korthan Doshu wrote:
Essentially, for every job beyond a certain number at an array, there should be a cost increase that eventually requires you to use another array. In other words, you need a congestion tax for /each array/ that counts the jobs /going right now, at that array/. If you get the formula just right, you can keep the step-variable nature of starbase costs in the production chain and give room for bonusing unique arrays (their congestion costs ramp up less quickly).


and this post:

Korthan Doshu wrote:
TLDR: Starbases will be justified mainly by assembly arrays; assembly arrays will be justified in part by NPC station tax savings and ME depending on the item; the biggest reason for using assembly arrays will be time savings.


But I have been critical of requiring more than one of each type of array:

Korthan Doshu wrote:
Y'know, I too proposed earlier a bonus to lab arrays that would reintroduce slots through a backdoor (I proposed a supercongestion tax). But looking at the big picture, there's just no reason to use a science array from the first position. You'd have to run billions upon billions upon billions of ISK a month in blueprints through a lab array to make the cost savings break even. It's just never going to get there. Time breaks and convenience are the only things that are going to make us put up MLs/AMLs in the future. Given that this is the case, things that force players to set up multiple AMLs/MLs are very questionable and should be done with the utmost care. That is all.


So, don't assume you're talking to idiots because it might just show how lazy you have been.

On the math for your proposal: adding stacking taxes to arrays will be meaningless (it's difficult to make lab array costs meaningful) or punitive. Remember that each array takes up CPU at a tower, and it generally should be economical to have some defenses at a tower. That means that each industry POS has to spread its fuel across a finite amount of cpu and that therefore each job at an industry array has an implied fuel cost. It will be difficult to justify lab arrays due to implied fuel costs unless assembly arrays are profitable enough that it makes sense to have a lab array for convenience. So unless you want to see laboratory arrays disappear, you need to let people put up a small number of assembly arrays that easily pay for fuel and leave room for defenses and convenience lab arrays.

That is not to say that there should be no limits on the amount of jobs one can run through an array. But there are already four: cargo hold practicalities, the reality that there are limits on the number of jobs one player can do based on character slots, the limits of trust among people in a corporation, and the eventual increase in system congestion taxes from so many jobs.

I could see raising the CPU of some assembly arrays a bit, maybe (150 to 250). But I would hate to see industry POS design hobbled by backdoor slot reintroduction that makes lab arrays extinct.
Sigras
Conglomo
#677 - 2014-05-10 03:23:37 UTC
I have three objections to your post:

1. claiming that i'm lazy and failed to read the thread just reveals that you are an idiot. I posted that suggestion pages ago, and ive very obviously been following this thread ever since; i was simply asking for an update at which time you raised an objection, and I reposted my earlier suggestion assuming that you didnt RTFT

2. POS defenses dont need to be put up on a high sec tower; you get a 24 hour warning that someone is going to attack your tower in the form of a war dec. During that time you're free to put up guns and online them.

3. Everyone/anyone who actually does invention from a tower now knows that your number one bottleneck is concurrent research jobs. I have alts to do research for me, and still I would like to have Super Advanced Lab Operation. If tomorrow you told me that all of my job times would double, I would lose WAY more ISK each month than a tower would cost me.

Allow me to illustrate:

Lets say I invent Anshars, and for simplicity's sake, lets say I only have one character, that character has advanced lab operation 5, and that he uses all of those slots for inventing Anshars.

Now inventing Anshars has a 41.18% success rate, and the Obelisk BPCs have an invention time of 61 hours 26 minutes in a mobile lab. This means that every 30 days I get around 53 Anshar BPCs. Each BPC costs me around 140,000,000 to make and sell for around 250,000,000 giving me a monthly profit of 5.5 billion or so (after POS fuel)

Looking at being in a station, the Obelisk BPCs have an invention time of 138 hours 53 minutes in a station. This gives me

Now it is true that I dont see the research lab getting a ton of use, but it may get some...This gives me around 23 BPCs every 30 days making my profit around 2.6 billion a month.

TL;DR
invention is very time dependent, so the time discount alone is enough to force any inventor to move to a tower.

now im not positive that research labs are worth the price, but with the increase in research time, it might be worth it.
Por-kwat Hamabu
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#678 - 2014-05-10 13:29:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Por-kwat Hamabu
Where's the database of system congestion costs?
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#679 - 2014-05-10 13:30:47 UTC
1. No, you were lazy and didn't read the thread. You should have known you were talking to somebody that has already said all of things you mentioned. Period.

2. Yes, you can run a highsec POS without defenses. However, expecting the equilibrium to be that nobody has defenses at their highsec POSs until a wardec is unrealistic and unfair.

3. Yes, concurrent research jobs is a bottleneck right now BECAUSE SLOTS. People move into a tower because of this bottleneck at all BECAUSE SLOTS. There will be no slots anymore. Not at the POS; not at the stations. That means that you can move into the station. Yes, in the case of ship invention the time savings can make it still worth it. That's why I said earlier in my post about the economics of new towers that T2 ships would be different. However, many many inventors do modules. These time savings don't matter with modules unless the person has an incredibly demanding workflow. Further, there are pressures that will keep an important part of ship invention in stations: risk of having the BPOs in space. Yes, you might be okay neckbearding it up 24/7 in case of a wardec. Many people will not be okay with that risk. You are the 1%: doing T2 ship invention and willing to take the risk of BPO in POS post-Kronos. I am not talking about the 1%. For the other 99%, introducing backdoor slots will screw lab arrays and hurt POS economics.
tx eight
The Dry Stout Society
#680 - 2014-05-10 15:35:32 UTC  |  Edited by: tx eight
Korthan Doshu wrote:

3. Yes, concurrent research jobs is a bottleneck right now BECAUSE SLOTS. People move into a tower because of this bottleneck at all BECAUSE SLOTS. There will be no slots anymore. Not at the POS; not at the stations. That means that you can move into the station. Yes, in the case of ship invention the time savings can make it still worth it. That's why I said earlier in my post about the economics of new towers that T2 ships would be different. However, many many inventors do modules. These time savings don't matter with modules unless the person has an incredibly demanding workflow. Further, there are pressures that will keep an important part of ship invention in stations: risk of having the BPOs in space. Yes, you might be okay neckbearding it up 24/7 in case of a wardec. Many people will not be okay with that risk. You are the 1%: doing T2 ship invention and willing to take the risk of BPO in POS post-Kronos. I am not talking about the 1%. For the other 99%, introducing backdoor slots will screw lab arrays and hurt POS economics.


You severely underestimate time savings in module invention. Yes, current slot system makes it so you just can't have any meaningful work done without a POS. But that just masks other issues.

Production time for a given batch of modules is a sum of copy time, invention time and production time. POS mods very significantly reduce all three. Invention time, being on the order, of 1h for a module sets an upper limit on how many invention jobs you can set up given limited time online. Losing half to quarter of them per session is not acceptable. Total number of jobs you can run depends on how many characters you have, and they each cost 1/3 PLEX price per month, don't forget that.

So you end up with the decision - for a given turnover either pay POS fuel and use less accounts, or pay for more accounts (and also invest into their training, keep track of who's doing what, etc).

Given current PLEX vs fuel prices, POS wins hands down.




EDIT:

Also, BPO-in-POS risk just doesn't apply for most modules, POS itself costs 50-1000 times more than what you would have in BPOs in it.