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Dev blog: The Price of Change

First post First post
Author
Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#361 - 2014-04-29 18:39:30 UTC
Greyscale, could you look into increasing the capacity of various pos arrays? With the removal of slots they will be quite... Cramped.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#362 - 2014-04-29 18:41:07 UTC
So basically, there is no way to know your costs until the job is submitted. Cry
Kun'ii Zenya
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#363 - 2014-04-29 18:42:28 UTC
Gizznitt Malikite wrote:
CCP Greyscale wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
CCP Greyscale wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
I understand the pricing for manufacturing. However, I do not understand the pricing for research: what's the output price? Could you give us some examples of what it would cost to (a)add a level of ME to a bpo (b)Make copies of that bpo or (c) run an invention job?


The "output price" where the output is a blueprint is treated as being 2% of the value of whatever the blueprint produces. It's buried in a paragraph halfway down, that probably could've been clearer.


What about copies: is a 50-run copy equal to 100%? It seems like this makes regular research oddly cheap and copying oddly expensive in relation to one another. I'll have to poke at the formula and see what drops out for the usual sort of stuff though.

Related question: how is this formula resolving the market value of rarely sold (e.g. components) items and never sold (supercaps)? Is it using market prices or is it doing a sort of 'base cost' off the minerals?


It will likely be per-run, so a 50-run copy becomes 100%, yes. Research costs scale at higher levels though, so it probably swings back a bit there.

Market costs are all done using the system that is used for killmail pricing (and thus used for FW LP payouts), which should have reasonable values for most things already. Some newer items aren't being properly calculated on TQ right now, but we're fixing that.


Let's put some numbers on this:

Heavy Neutron Blaster II, valued at 1.3m isk.

To make a Heavy Nuetron Blaster II, I need a max run Heavy Neutron Blaster 1 BPC. This is 300 runs per copy. The cost of a Heavy Neutron Blaster 1 is ~200k isk.
That means my BPC is worth 300 * .02 * 200k * (station costs) = 1.2m * (station costs)
Assuming the station has 5% of global hours, the sqrt of this is .22 ('we'll round down to .2).
Now the cost of the BPC is 1.2 * .2 = 240k isk to make.

The net result in my spread sheets is about a 120k isk price increase to the 1.3m isk build price of the Heavy Neutron Blaster Cannon II.




The global hours is a bit high based on the Dev Blog, the highest system was 2.5% which when squared gets you 15%.

So it is more likely your preferred research system is some less than that, lets say 1.5% and squaring that would give you 12.25% which when multiplied by 2% gives you a cost multiplier of 0.00245 or about 0.245%.

So your costs, assuming I did the math right is 147,000 isk or so. I think...

Here is my math:

200,000 for the heavy neutron blaster.
2% of this is 4,000 isk.
But we are maxing out the runs at 300, so we multiply that by 300 to get
1,200,000 isk.
But we multiply that by 12.25% for 147,000.

And that is the base price. If you are in a system good for researching (i.e. lots of research slots and at the best facilities) and there are 4 of them you'd get an additional discount of

0.95^4 or 81.4506%

A Caldari research outpost would provide a 50% multiplier, so doing that copy in null would cost you about 73,500 isk.

And since we are talking invention where with the best skills you have about a 50% success ratio, you'll need 2 such BPCs if you expect to see actual product, so double those prices from an invention view.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#364 - 2014-04-29 18:43:12 UTC
Abla Tive wrote:
I note with interest that CCP says they want industrial type people to spread out.
However, their use of the square root function in the pricing
calculation *dramatically* levels the field and contradicts their stated objective.

Two systems that have a factor of 100 difference in terms of usage get leveled to only a factor of 10 difference in pricing.

Furthermore, they will institute floors on activity (0.0001 -> which roots to 0.01) so that extreme cases are still leveled.

Then, they add back in a bunch of things like station facility adjustments to level it some more.

Finally, there is the future "work team" devblog which is supposed to encourage coming together and no doubt further "leveling".

Simply put: Don't believe CCP when they say they want people to spread out.

*dons tin foil beany*

This may be because a general spreading out would reduce opportunities for "emergent game play "


Don't forget the 10% for NPC station that gets added after everything else. So, if usage results in 2% in one system and 4% in another, they become 12% and 14%...
Kun'ii Zenya
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#365 - 2014-04-29 18:43:48 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
So basically, there is no way to know your costs until the job is submitted. Cry


I thought there was going to be a way to see the costs prior to submitting the jobs....
Veldar Reku
Wu Xi Holdings
#366 - 2014-04-29 18:45:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Veldar Reku
Ranger 1 wrote:
Veldar Reku wrote:
I protest these insane labour costs. Amarrian facilities should be exempt from labour costs - we use free and fresh Minmatar stock for all our menial labour needs!


Surprisingly, slavery isn't necessarily a cost effective industry model. Blink


I am confused. There is no slavery here. We simply use lower lifeforms for menial labour. Are refugee farmers of Olin (Gallentians) employing slavery using spike-horn cattle and spider-cats to plow their land? Hardly.

As for costs, it is still more cost effective to teach sentient lifeforms a task than reprogram an AI system for every job required. You can see the result in beautiful ships Amarrian factories produce, not the abominations of some other so-called "empires".
Kun'ii Zenya
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#367 - 2014-04-29 18:46:42 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Abla Tive wrote:
I note with interest that CCP says they want industrial type people to spread out.
However, their use of the square root function in the pricing
calculation *dramatically* levels the field and contradicts their stated objective.

Two systems that have a factor of 100 difference in terms of usage get leveled to only a factor of 10 difference in pricing.

Furthermore, they will institute floors on activity (0.0001 -> which roots to 0.01) so that extreme cases are still leveled.

Then, they add back in a bunch of things like station facility adjustments to level it some more.

Finally, there is the future "work team" devblog which is supposed to encourage coming together and no doubt further "leveling".

Simply put: Don't believe CCP when they say they want people to spread out.

*dons tin foil beany*

This may be because a general spreading out would reduce opportunities for "emergent game play "


Don't forget the 10% for NPC station that gets added after everything else. So, if usage results in 2% in one system and 4% in another, they become 12% and 14%...


Not sure that is correct. Looking at the formula, it is all multiplicative.

That is it is not just added on, but multiplied. That is you'd multiply the run cost by 1.1.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#368 - 2014-04-29 18:51:15 UTC
Gilbaron wrote:
Quote:
I am VERY, VERY concerned about the ME bonus to amarr/minmatar outposts. A BPO that would take me years to research to perfect, can be produced in null outpost for 1/10,000th the research time because they only need to be at ME 5 for perfect?


you can't make titans in stations


Titans are not the only BP that will take to get to perfect based on the new 10 level, 5x as long per level methodology.

But, it is moot anyway, since they are adding the ME bonus beyond perfect. So, the perfect BPO in null outpust upgrade to +5ME will take 5% less minerals than perfect at POS or station.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#369 - 2014-04-29 18:53:28 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
why are people calling for a release to be delayed when it doesn't even have a release date?


In the 5 years I've been playing, it is always in June.

They have said stuff will be going up onto SISI after FanFest in May, in time for Beta test for... yes... June release. It is like FanFest is scheduled just in time to announce the big things, days before they go into Beta on SiSi.
Lena Lazair
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#370 - 2014-04-29 18:56:47 UTC
Iorga Eeta wrote:
I have to pull out some math books, but I believe an infinite series like this will reach a limit not too far about the initial 10% mark of the base price of x: x + x*.1 + x*(.1)^2+x*(.1 )^3...x*(.1)^n

or better yet:

infinity
∑ X(1/10)^n = 10X/9
n=0

http://symbolab.com/solver/series-calculator


Your equation is incorrect. The best equation for the inflation in price owing to the constant 10% feedback would be the formula for compound interest. For any given item the "interest" will be compounded each time a job is installed, so you will get compounding at a frequency determined by the average build time for that item.
SoHo White
Etoilles Mortant Ltd.
Solyaris Chtonium
#371 - 2014-04-29 18:59:50 UTC
Hahaha, I can't help but laugh.

Industry needed some work done it for sure. Bits never made much sense, the UI was clunky and it had been neglected for a long time.

I've read every dev blog and every subsequent post. Soooo many numbers, percentages, modifiers and taxes. Soooo many questions asking how these work, what gets applied where and when, why they are even there ??

Industry looks to be getting more complicated not more "straight forward" as claimed by CCP Greyscale. If it were straight forward then there wouldn't be so much confusion and so many questions.

I've played a long time and I have a maths degree and I don't think all this helps make a better Industry system.

... and finally the poor POS owners are getting a very raw deal.

My advice is to "Keep it simple"

Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#372 - 2014-04-29 19:01:21 UTC
Veldar Reku wrote:
Ranger 1 wrote:
Veldar Reku wrote:
I protest these insane labour costs. Amarrian facilities should be exempt from labour costs - we use free and fresh Minmatar stock for all our menial labour needs!


Surprisingly, slavery isn't necessarily a cost effective industry model. Blink


I am confused. There is no slavery here. We simply use lower lifeforms for menial labour. Are refugee farmers of Olin (Gallentians) employing slavery using spike-horn cattle and spider-cats to plow their land? Hardly.

As for costs, it is still more cost effective to teach sentient lifeforms a task than reprogram an AI system for every job required. You can see the result in beautiful ships Amarrian factories produce, not the abominations of some other so-called "empires".

Call the labour whatever lets you sleep through the night, the profit/loss statement doesn't lie. Smile

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.

Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#373 - 2014-04-29 19:03:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Ranger 1
SoHo White wrote:
Hahaha, I can't help but laugh.

Industry needed some work done it for sure. Bits never made much sense, the UI was clunky and it had been neglected for a long time.

I've read every dev blog and every subsequent post. Soooo many numbers, percentages, modifiers and taxes. Soooo many questions asking how these work, what gets applied where and when, why they are even there ??

Industry looks to be getting more complicated not more "straight forward" as claimed by CCP Greyscale. If it were straight forward then there wouldn't be so much confusion and so many questions.

I've played a long time and I have a maths degree and I don't think all this helps make a better Industry system.

... and finally the poor POS owners are getting a very raw deal.

My advice is to "Keep it simple"


For the end user the process is far simpler. Click on a BP (whether you own it or not) and get bacon (where bacon = the total cost). And you can do this from where ever you happen to be at the time.

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.

Beta Maoye
#374 - 2014-04-29 19:10:28 UTC
The equation has 7 variables: (1)faction of global job hours, (2)team cost, (3)facility reduction, (4)starbase reduction, (5)FW reduction, (6)outpost upgrade reduction, (7)taxes. This is beyond my comprehension to determine which system I should do manufacturing.

Variables 4, 6, 7 are corporation/alliance dependent. Variables 1, 2, 3, 5 are system dependent. I want to know two pieces of information to help me. First, the total net cost modifier of the system dependent variables. Second, how far the system is. Please show these two pieces of information on the map.

The complexity is not necessary. It would go too far if data mining is a must to play a game.
Kun'ii Zenya
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#375 - 2014-04-29 19:14:49 UTC
Beta Maoye wrote:
The equation has 7 variables: (1)faction of global job hours, (2)team cost, (3)facility reduction, (4)starbase reduction, (5)FW reduction, (6)outpost upgrade reduction, (7)taxes. This is beyond my comprehension to determine which system I should do manufacturing.

Variables 4, 6, 7 are corporation/alliance dependent. Variables 1, 2, 3, 5 are system dependent. I want to know two pieces of information to help me. First, the total net cost modifier of the system dependent variables. Second, how far the system is. Please show these two pieces of information on the map.

The complexity is not necessary. It would go too far if data mining is a must to play a game.


I believe the final result will be you can click on a BP and see the cost of what you want to do with it...I think you'll even be able to pick a system as well. So you wont need all the values of the variables you note (and some wont even apply depending on where you doing your industry stuff.
Dareth Astrar
Astrar Logistics and Engineering
#376 - 2014-04-29 19:20:23 UTC
As Per: Third Party Tools
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4527121#post4527121

As all the variables are server based, and you now have realized that these will have to be exposed via API for third-party tools to actually allow us to "attempt" to calculate the costs associated with construction, I do wonder if you've placed thought on the additional load and impact this will place on the API servers as a result of these changes.

Currently most of the figures we require we all have in our software/spreadsheet/XCalculator. This is going to be bringing a lot of extra load to your servers to allow us to try to calculate values, so I think someone needs to do the maths on that aspect and inform the database and server teams really, as it's clear you haven't thought of this point:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4527096#post4527096

From a developers point of view I know this would have been high on my list if you are making sure all the calculation variables are now server side and/or server calculated as would their exposure via API and how to optimize that so as to reduce the impact on the server teams. I think this is going to have a bigger impact then perhaps has been given thought too.

There is lots of software out there written by people for their websites etc to help with the industrial issues, and you perhaps have not given this as much thought as you should. Big smile

Server Side Variables - Accuracy of Impact
Great that you've come up with different calculation formula, but I really think that all these server side variables you are talking about and the rate at which they may change will make it a lot harder for someone installing a long running production batch to know if they will be actually making a profit on the items by the time the products come out the other side. I would think there might actually be some manipulation opportunity for smaller batches with faster changing variable values then initial large batches, but with the less then accurate numbers used so far it's extremely hard for any of us to help you out.

I would like to suggest you do some accurate numbers, based on some actual example values for the following:


  1. High Production/Population Systems like Jita and Nonni
  2. Middle Range Systems
  3. Low Population and Utilization Systems


and show us the actual figures. Then those of us that have spent a decade or many years in industry can actually help with our past experience.


Margins:
I think you are being rather optimistic about the single digit percentage price increases. Even then it seems strange that for someone so closely involved in the restructuring of this to not understand existing margins people make through industry.

Personally whilst the change interests me, as it's the first significant change in a decade of playing this game, I'm doubtful it will do more then just massively increase costs and market prices, whilst drastically reducing them for people that group/clump together or are already based in systems that are high population.

You don't seem to be helping those that already moved out to lower population systems to take advantage of space and facilities, but will now be penalizing them in some of the many variable costs for these additional fees. The nearly 4% increase for the Abaddon example used would seriously cut into most peoples margins.

Is it just me or is there an obvious market-manipulation to day one? Those with an aweful lot of money buy out everything on the market and I mean everything and up all by 20%. Price increases are going to occur for all the cost calculations, and peoples existing base of operations that prices will go up, and personally I think they will go up more then your single digit percentage expectations. Furthermore they then benefit from the reduced cost of installations on day 1 based on the previous averages, and drive up everyone else's prices by the increase in the background price used as the basis for all calculations, or would I be wrong here?

Penalties as high as 10% differential could wipe out the entire profit margin in some lines, and god knows people don't price in their time for effort of moving materials, the cost of the blueprints purchase and research, cost of BPC/BPO use in production. A useful system for industry would have allowed more of these factors to be included in the cost calculations for people.

A very simple other point would be to assign the average unit cost for each item to the stack in which it is kicked out from production, and allow that like items stacked together workout the weighted average so that people know their actual average production cost prior to attempting to place them up for sale, so they know if they are at least attempting to make a profit. Smile


Population Density:
Many years back you removed lots of ore belts from systems that were considered busy mission runner systems, but when the mission agents were balanced and evened out none of those systems received their asteroid belts back again, meaning it didn't further encourage players to operate in those systems. If player population and density is important to reducing costs of some of the variables, you really should consider restoring those removed belts to encourage those miners back into those systems.


Dareth Astrar
Astrar Logistics and Engineering
#377 - 2014-04-29 19:26:09 UTC
Part 2 of 2

Blueprints
I have to say that we've spent a not insignifcant time performing research, for ourselves and some of our clients. I think the dumbing down of the ME side of things to 10 levels is massively under-rating the time and effort people put in to increasing their margins by those fractions of a percent that you seem to consider insignificant. They might be until you do it all the time, or in large quantities.

I'm kind of sad that my workload was decreasing and allowing me to return to the game a little more frequently.


POSes
Well, I think enough's already been said on this front so that I won't add more salt into the wound. So if you were in a low utilization system, and have lots of pos, you still don't count in the usage percentage calculations so the costs on one variable will massively outweigh the benefit of another?

Considering how much is already done at POSes, their lack of attention in this re-factoring seems worrying.

I honestly think from the few reads of the posting so far that until we can get some actual hard accurate numbers to look at, many of us won't be considering POS'es as anything more then a massive cost increase, as their running costs will far outweigh the savings obtained from the taxation, and even ignoring that many corps do actually tax their members for use to help with the running costs, that doesn't contribute to much in the way of profit.


I look forward to seeing some actual useful numbers when I get more time to read the other 10 pages added since I started typing some responses. Big smile
ElectronHerd Askulf
Aridia Logistical Misdirection
#378 - 2014-04-29 19:29:28 UTC
CCP Greyscale wrote:

We were originally looking at a volume-based system, but IIRC we decided there were too many weird relationships for it to really make sense.


Volumes seem to be under multiple contradictory constraints. The reprocessing change removes one of them, but there's still stuff like certain moongoos being very large (I assume to remove coupling arrays as an output option) as well as the fact that a pile of minerals getting smaller when made into a gun (necessary to get the price curve right, but even without processing results in counterintuitive relationships in the logistics trade)
Kun'ii Zenya
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#379 - 2014-04-29 19:30:39 UTC
Regarding the impact on prices, keep in mind you wont need a POS. Even if you are doing invention. That right there will create some offsetting savings. It might not offset all the costs entirely, but we'll have to wait and see.
Kun'ii Zenya
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#380 - 2014-04-29 19:45:10 UTC
Dareth Astrar wrote:


You don't seem to be helping those that already moved out to lower population systems to take advantage of space and facilities, but will now be penalizing them in some of the many variable costs for these additional fees. The nearly 4% increase for the Abaddon example used would seriously cut into most peoples margins.


That was for the worst system to manufacture in. Pick a nearly dead system and will considerably less. Pick a nearly dead system with decent facilities and it will be even cheaper. You could be down around the 1% range in HS in some systems.