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The real reason PLEX is so expensive

First post First post
Author
Doc Fury
Furious Enterprises
#41 - 2014-04-18 23:20:49 UTC
Divine Entervention wrote:
Tippia wrote:
Divine Entervention wrote:
But at the same time, it works both ways. The isk price needs to be low enough for the PLEX purchasers to feel that they'll get a return on their investment, but they want it to be worth more to make their investment more valuable. It's all about trying to find the most people are willing to pay.

With PLEX right now being sold at 740million, that could be enticing people who don't already have PLEX in supply to buy plex, which is a benefit to CCP.

…except that this isn't happening. Again, and I'll keep repeating this until it sinks in: they were desirable to buy at a quarter the price and if anything, lower ISK prices means people will have to buy more of them to make up for their ISK needs. The trade volume at 740M is the same as it were at 540M — there is no visible “enticement” from the higher price.

So all that is happening is that the higher price makes people shut down their accounts, which inevitably translates into lost money for CCP.


I never said they weren't desirable enough to be bought. I stated that PLEX being sold for more isk makes PLEX MORE desirable than a PLEX worth less ISK.


The trade data (which is available to anyone via the market) shows that PLEX volume is not reflecting that position. Volume would need to increase under your assumption.

Your position assumes the seller of the PLEX in-game is the driving force of the PLEX Market, but it's the consumer as usual that drives the market.

There's a million angry citizens looking down their tubes..at me.

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#42 - 2014-04-18 23:25:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Divine Entervention wrote:
We don't have the figures of PLEX being bought from CCP, so we have no idea of knowing if they are benefiting from an increase in PLEX being bought.
We have the trade volumes, which speak… well… volumes.

Quote:
Because we can't know since they won't tell us, you can't state the "the only one who benefits" because you can't know if CCP is not also benefiting.
Since we know how many PLEX change hands and for what price, and we can state with certainty that the volume isn't being affected by the price, we can indeed know that the higher price does not benefit CCP since it doesn't actually lead to more sales. Moreover, if they benefitted from higher prices, they wouldn't be trying to keep the prices down, which they are.

Your unfounded suppositions are in one case flat-out wrong, and in the other case contradicted by reality. Live with it.
Divine Entervention
Doomheim
#43 - 2014-04-18 23:31:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Divine Entervention
Tippia wrote:
Divine Entervention wrote:
We don't have the figures of PLEX being bought from CCP, so we have no idea of knowing if they are benefiting from an increase in PLEX being bought.
We have the trade volumes, which speak… well… volumes.

Quote:
Because we can't know since they won't tell us, you can't state the "the only one who benefits" because you can't know if CCP is not also benefiting.
Since we know how many PLEX change hands and for what price, and we can state with certainty that the volume isn't being affected by the price, we can indeed know that the higher price does not benefit CCP since it doesn't actually lead to more sales.

Your unfounded suppositions are in one case flat-out wrong, and in the other case contradicted by reality. Live with it.


The trade volumes only show the amount of PLEX bought and sold within EvE, but it doesn't show the volume of PLEX bought from CCP with real money.

You can state with certainty about how many PLEX are being traded within the confines of the EvE universe, PLEX for ISK.
But you cannot state with certainty about how many PLEX are being bought from CCP with money.

Unless of course CCP releases information that shows previous and current PLEX purchases from CCP with real money, then whatever "certainty" you come to regarding the volume of it is false.

Any statement about what you feel is certain or not regarding the amount of PLEX being bought from CCP for money is merely your opinion.
Divine Entervention
Doomheim
#44 - 2014-04-18 23:33:35 UTC
Doc Fury wrote:
Divine Entervention wrote:
Tippia wrote:
Divine Entervention wrote:
But at the same time, it works both ways. The isk price needs to be low enough for the PLEX purchasers to feel that they'll get a return on their investment, but they want it to be worth more to make their investment more valuable. It's all about trying to find the most people are willing to pay.

With PLEX right now being sold at 740million, that could be enticing people who don't already have PLEX in supply to buy plex, which is a benefit to CCP.

…except that this isn't happening. Again, and I'll keep repeating this until it sinks in: they were desirable to buy at a quarter the price and if anything, lower ISK prices means people will have to buy more of them to make up for their ISK needs. The trade volume at 740M is the same as it were at 540M — there is no visible “enticement” from the higher price.

So all that is happening is that the higher price makes people shut down their accounts, which inevitably translates into lost money for CCP.


I never said they weren't desirable enough to be bought. I stated that PLEX being sold for more isk makes PLEX MORE desirable than a PLEX worth less ISK.


The trade data (which is available to anyone via the market) shows that PLEX volume is not reflecting that position. Volume would need to increase under your assumption.

Your position assumes the seller of the PLEX in-game is the driving force of the PLEX Market, but it's the consumer as usual that drives the market.



Yea, the consumer generates the demand, but the PLEX purchasers generates the supply, and CCP provides the opportunity.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#45 - 2014-04-18 23:36:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Divine Entervention wrote:
The trade volumes only show the amount of PLEX bought and sold within EvE
…which is where the ISK price matters. Since we can trivially correlate price with volume, we see that price does not affect volume. That's all there is to it. In addition, CCP is actively trying to keep the price down since this ensures that they don't lose accounts.

So no, CCP very obviously does not benefit from higher prices. Instead, they benefit from lower prices. Exactly why they do so is hardly rocket surgery.

For your idea to hold true, CCP would have to act against their own interests and people would have to buy things they can't actually make use of. If you want to defend your position, explain those two rather than insisting on being wrong about what we do and do not know.

Quote:
Yea, the consumer generates the demand
So you agree, then, that your position is rather nonsensical.
Doc Fury
Furious Enterprises
#46 - 2014-04-18 23:40:12 UTC
Divine Entervention wrote:

You can state with certainty about how many PLEX are being traded within the confines of the EvE universe, PLEX for ISK.
But you cannot state with certainty about how many PLEX are being bought from CCP with money.


All PLEX are purchased from CCP with real money, and it's safe to assume that the total number being bought for cash is greater than or equal to the number being traded.

Any players "holding" PLEX benefit when they either redeem or sell them, the former has no bearing on your position. If players holding PLEX sell them, the isk value will decrease as volume increases.

There's a million angry citizens looking down their tubes..at me.

Prt Scr
569th Freelancers
#47 - 2014-04-18 23:45:40 UTC
The reason plex have gone up in price is cause silly buggers will pay the higher price

uɐıssnɹ pɐǝɹ ʇ,uɐɔ ı ʇnq ʎɹɹos ɯ,ı

Divine Entervention
Doomheim
#48 - 2014-04-18 23:45:59 UTC
Doc Fury wrote:
Divine Entervention wrote:

You can state with certainty about how many PLEX are being traded within the confines of the EvE universe, PLEX for ISK.
But you cannot state with certainty about how many PLEX are being bought from CCP with money.


All PLEX are purchased from CCP with real money, and it's safe to assume that the total number being bought for cash is greater than or equal to the number being traded.

Any players "holding" PLEX benefit when they either redeem or sell them, the former has no bearing on your position. If players holding PLEX sell them, the isk value will decrease as volume increases.


Except an increased value of PLEX determined through ISK price makes people considering to invest in PLEX for the purpose of selling it more desirable to engage, which will result in a temporary increase in supply, resulting in a temporary increase in profit by CCP for the additional PLEX being bought.
masternerdguy
Doomheim
#49 - 2014-04-18 23:46:40 UTC
Prt Scr wrote:
The reason plex have gone up in price is cause silly buggers will pay the higher price


It really is this simple.

Things are only impossible until they are not.

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#50 - 2014-04-18 23:49:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Divine Entervention wrote:
Except an increased value of PLEX determined through ISK price makes people considering to invest in PLEX for the purpose of selling it more desirable to engage,
…except that this isn't happening. If it did, we'd either see higher volumes, or we'd have to explain why people buy stuff they can't use. Making stuff “consider” something is of absolutely no use to anyone.

Quote:
which will result in a temporary increase in supply, resulting in a temporary increase in profit by CCP for the additional PLEX being bought.
…neither of which seems to be happening, and which would directly clash with CCP's attempts at bringing the prices down.
Divine Entervention
Doomheim
#51 - 2014-04-18 23:51:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Divine Entervention
Tippia wrote:
Divine Entervention wrote:
Except an increased value of PLEX determined through ISK price makes people considering to invest in PLEX for the purpose of selling it more desirable to engage,
…except that this isn't happening. If it did, we'd either see higher volumes, or we'd have to explain why people buy stuff they can't use. Making stuff “consider” something is of absolutely no use to anyone.

Quote:
which will result in a temporary increase in supply, resulting in a temporary increase in profit by CCP for the additional PLEX being bought.
…neither of which seems to be happening, and which would directly clash with CCP's attempts at bringing the prices down.


You don't know if it's happening or not. There is no metric used to show the total amount of PLEX being bought by players from players for isk, and there's no metric showing the amount of PLEX bought from CCP by players for money.

You assuming to know is merely your belief of what you feel is happening, your opinion.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#52 - 2014-04-18 23:55:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Divine Entervention wrote:
You don't know if it's happening or not.
How do you explain people buying stuff they can't use?


Quote:
There is no metric used to show the total amount of PLEX being bought by players from players for isk
Yes there is. It can't be any higher than the number of PLEXes traded on the market, especially not if the price keeps going up.

Quote:
You assuming to know
No.
We know all we need to know. We know for a fact that higher prices do not lead to more PLEX being traded. We know for a fact that CCP is trying to keep prices down. If you want to fit your hypothesis with these facts, you will have to come up with some really good explanations for the deeply irrational behaviour this would mean on both the players' and CCP's part.
Divine Entervention
Doomheim
#53 - 2014-04-19 00:02:39 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Divine Entervention wrote:
You don't know if it's happening or not.
How do you explain people buying stuff they can't use?

Quote:
You assuming to know
No.
We know all we need to know. We know for a fact that higher prices do not lead to more PLEX being traded. We know for a fact that CCP is trying to keep prices down. If you want to fit your hypothesis with these facts, you will have to come up with some really good explanations for the deeply irrational behaviour this would mean on both the players' and CCP's part.


You believe you know all you need to know.
You can't know that more or less total plex is being traded, you only assume you do with the information provided to you, but there is information that none of us knows. Because of what we can't know, it's impossible to say one way or the other as a certainty.

As for CCP wanting to keep prices down, well personally I've never seen a Dev statement confirming one way or the other. Does one exist? Potentially. Just because I haven't seen the statement doesn't mean I'm going to claim it doesn't exist.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#54 - 2014-04-19 00:08:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Divine Entervention wrote:
You can't know that more or less total plex is being traded

*Snip* Please refrain from personal attacks. ISD Ezwal.

If you want to offer a different explanation, will have to explain why people are buying stuff they can't use. And while you're at it, explain why CCP would act against its own interests.

Quote:
As for CCP wanting to keep prices down, well personally I've never seen a Dev statement confirming one way or the other. Does one exist?
Watch almost any of the fanfest security or economics presentations for the last couple of years.

e: Meh, Ezwal, dont break the bbcode! P
masternerdguy
Doomheim
#55 - 2014-04-19 00:10:47 UTC
Divine Entervention wrote:


You believe you know all you need to know.
You can't know that more or less total plex is being traded, you only assume you do with the information provided to you, but there is information that none of us knows. Because of what we can't know, it's impossible to say one way or the other as a certainty.

As for CCP wanting to keep prices down, well personally I've never seen a Dev statement confirming one way or the other. Does one exist? Potentially. Just because I haven't seen the statement doesn't mean I'm going to claim it doesn't exist.


The problem with this reasoning is that, if we assume your premise, we can't know anything about anything and therefore we cannot draw any conclusions. It's a futile mental exercise.

Things are only impossible until they are not.

Jenn aSide
Worthless Carebears
The Initiative.
#56 - 2014-04-19 00:19:18 UTC
Everytime plex prices rise, it exposes something nasty about some people.

If a plex costs 750 mil, a person would have to generate 25 million isk per day to plex. If you can't generate 25 mil in 24 hours, you sholdn't be plexing.

What happens is that people get spolied being able to play the game for 'free'. The past cheapness of plex has led some to create these unsustainable Alt empires, then plex prices rise, reality sets in, and instead of realizing "hey, maybe I didn't need my 16 alts and my own supercapital fleet" the get mad and start imagining conspiracies because someone must be trying to screw with them...
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#57 - 2014-04-19 00:29:07 UTC
As Tippia mentioned, high ISK per PLEX could, if anything, reduce PLEX supply, not raise it.

Because the majority of people buy PLEX (with cash) because they need ISK, not because they want ISK.

If you want ISK, you play for ISK, so you'll have ISK-positive toons (e.g. traders, miners, industrialists) so what would you need PLEX for?

Otoh, if you play for spaceship violence, you'll probably have ISK-negative toons (PVPers) that need ISK injection. So you buy PLEX and sell it ingame for ISK.

You buy based on your need: you lose 1B ISK per month? You buy 2 PLEX if they're 'worth' 500M, just one if it's worth 1B.

So when PLEX prices rise, I'd assume you either buy less or maybe the same amount (because that's the 'fun' budget you've decided to spend anyway) and fit a few more shiny mods on your soon-to-be-dead PVP ships.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Divine Entervention
Doomheim
#58 - 2014-04-19 00:36:03 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
As Tippia mentioned, high ISK per PLEX could, if anything, reduce PLEX supply, not raise it.



Yea, it could. I never said it could not. It could also very well increase PLEX supply by more people having bought it hoping to get in on the higher value only to find there aren't enough buyers at the present time to satisfy their attempt at making as much isk they were hoping to, deciding to hold onto it for the potential of fulfilling their initially desired amount of isk.

possibility
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#59 - 2014-04-19 00:39:13 UTC  |  Edited by: ISD Ezwal
Divine Entervention wrote:
It could also very well increase PLEX supply
Explain why people would buy something they can't use.
Explain how the price would keep going up if they do.

*Snip* Please refrain from personal attacks. ISD Ezwal.
masternerdguy
Doomheim
#60 - 2014-04-19 00:41:42 UTC
Divine Entervention wrote:

possibility


But not one supported to logic or facts.

Things are only impossible until they are not.