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Summer expansion POS fuel prices

Author
Antihrist Pripravnik
Cultural Enrichment and Synergy of Diversity
Stain Neurodiverse Democracy
#1 - 2014-04-16 16:44:34 UTC
As you might already know, the summer expansion will make many changes to the POSes. The main changes are:
- POSes can be anchored in 0.8+ systems excluding highly congested systems (like JIta) and starter systems;
- You will not require faction standings in order to anchor a POS;
- Slots are being removed from the game and are being replaced by the tax. More slots used in the station equals higher tax. POSes will have lower tax than stations.

There are more changes announced, but the dev blog is too massive to list them all here.

Anyway, do you think that POS fuel prices will jump due to higher availability of POS gameplay to newer players/players without standings or even by the pretty decent amount of high-high security space (sorry ... can't find the better word for it Big smile) that is free for spreading POSes?

Or will the prices drop because of the convenience of station industry without a limit on the number of slots?
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#2 - 2014-04-16 16:54:18 UTC
there is no reliable way of telling, as the popularity of station production will be determined by the (not yet released) progressive manufacturing costs formula. if CCP bungles it and production costs in and around jita become too high, POSes will become more popular. if they fail the other way, everyone will switch to station production in a radius of a few jumps around the trade hubs and no one will care about POSes.

personally, i have dropped a few bil into pos related stuff, just so i can later say i profited from it (if indeed i will).

I should buy an Ishtar.

Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#3 - 2014-04-16 16:57:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Bad Bobby
Could easily go either way.

Based on the little information we have, I would be planning to reduce the number of POSes I operate. That's something I'm very happy with. If a lot of other people do the same then we could see fuel prices fall back some.
Proton Power
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#4 - 2014-04-16 18:40:25 UTC
My original thoughts: BUY Isotopes now!!!

After debating it in my head for a few hours, while I do believe at first POS's will go up all over the place, after a few months most will be offline.. Those that want POS's now can get one just as easy now as they can once a patch comes out, tons of corps for sale for very little isk with standings...

The other aspect of this is as I think bobby mentioned, how will Taxes work. We do know POS's will be hit with taxes, we also know that to use a POS you will need to use Copies or BPO in the POS now, where if taxes are low in system in station, a station would be just as good as a POS with not having to fuel the POS..

The other aspect is some people/corps/allainces have tons of POS's up for production/research and such because 1 POS isnt large enough for there needs, most of these people are the ones that will still be doing production after the first few months and everyone else got over the "NEW" feeling; But as Bad did say, they will now only require 1-2 POS's instead of God knows how many they have up. This means less fuel being used.

My Prediction:
Short Term: Buy to resale quickly. Don't hold it to long.
Knutto
Hajiilee
#5 - 2014-04-16 22:13:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Knutto
Where they exactly say that POSes will be hit by taxes? I can't find the part in the new dev blog where they clearly state it.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#6 - 2014-04-16 22:33:41 UTC
Knutto wrote:
Where they exactly say that POSes will be hit by taxes? I can't find the part in the new dev blog where they clearly state it.


They say it in the threadnought that spawned from the dev blog.


Also, I wanted to post an isotopes analysis of mine but as anyone may easily verify by reading the Reverence thread, CCP changed their stuff again so the market data extraction program does not work at the moment Cry
Adunh Slavy
#7 - 2014-04-16 23:06:03 UTC
It will depend on how high these taxes/fees go. If pos operation costs more than paying the tax, then pay the tax. I think we can assume greater demands on the fuel supply, with the tax/fee acting as a soft ceiling.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Sturmwolke
#8 - 2014-04-17 00:13:59 UTC
Most highsec towers churn out BPCs (and ME/PE research), barring the small number of production towers. Going by details from the first blog, EVERYONE will have near unlimited acccess to what was traditionally limited.
You will literally see a flood of BPCs produced in the first several weeks - either for sale or for in-house consumption. You get less demand, massive overproduction. Long term, the entire BPC market will collapse on itself, with the flood of BPCs and competition - the higher end (i.e capital BPCs) will have some resistance, but it'll succumb sooner or later.

Need the details of the station charges before you can solidy the direction it's going into. Caldari ice may drop like a rock.
Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#9 - 2014-04-17 03:13:10 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
It will depend on how high these taxes/fees go. If pos operation costs more than paying the tax, then pay the tax. I think we can assume greater demands on the fuel supply, with the tax/fee acting as a soft ceiling.



If pos are also being hit by the tax, then I see very little reason to continue to own one.
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#10 - 2014-04-17 05:00:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Felicity Love
If POS become the best place to do industry, period, then there will be a steady increase in fuels demand.

You can expect the racial towers with the cheapest fuel (Gallente / oxytopes, currently) to become more commonly used, if only for operating costs rather than the ability to host the most number of Labs or Assembly Arrays.

Mostly though -- expect a "Honeymoon" period where tonnes of players suddenly have access to a part of the game they just could NOT be arsed to grind standings for before the summer.

And then the slump as the novelty wears off, a new game comes out on PS4 and / or they go back to school.

Boom and bust economics, EVE is real. Huzzah.

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

Qmamoto Kansuke
Killing with pink power
Penguins with lasorz
#11 - 2014-04-17 07:08:53 UTC
Pos has never been about cost, its about how well you can use them.If said taxes are less than station poses are still worth owning because they still provide speed that stations can't match, and with this change for standings say hi to poses in sobasekiLol
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#12 - 2014-04-17 10:58:44 UTC
Sturmwolke wrote:
Most highsec towers churn out BPCs (and ME/PE research), barring the small number of production towers. Going by details from the first blog, EVERYONE will have near unlimited acccess to what was traditionally limited.
You will literally see a flood of BPCs produced in the first several weeks - either for sale or for in-house consumption. You get less demand, massive overproduction. Long term, the entire BPC market will collapse on itself, with the flood of BPCs and competition - the higher end (i.e capital BPCs) will have some resistance, but it'll succumb sooner or later.

Need the details of the station charges before you can solidy the direction it's going into. Caldari ice may drop like a rock.


Capital BPC prices are already half of what they were compared to 6 months ago.
Cyniac
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#13 - 2014-04-17 17:19:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Cyniac
Loraine Gess wrote:
If pos are also being hit by the tax, then I see very little reason to continue to own one.


The level of tax will be determined by the degree of use of the production / research asset.

Thus while the station tax might be very high (because of overuse) the tax which you pay in your own POS may be at a minimal level.

To my knowledge the only system which we have on these scaling taxes is the corp offices - and they can get very expensive very fast.

So - still very much worthwhile having a POS if the tax differential is high (and my guess is - it will be).

As an aside it makes POS accounting a bit simpler, you know much more clearly how much you are saving by running a POS.
350125GO
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#14 - 2014-04-17 17:41:19 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:
If POS become the best place to do industry, period, then there will be a steady increase in fuels demand.


I didn't see where POS becomes good for industry as a whole (I read industry as manufacturing), we DO know that POS will become go-to for refining. Seems like they'll still be the go-to for research/copying as well. Manufacturing will still be best done in a station, except for low-level stuff like T1 ammo and small mods/rigs.

I don't see this resulting in a long-term increase in demand, though it may be good speculation for a short-term gain, but I think smarter money would invest in small/med towers.

You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it.

Erik Sokarad
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#15 - 2014-04-17 19:27:16 UTC
what i get from reading the devblog, is that we will see a lot of small corps suddenly using POS for the first time. this will result in a learning curve, and some of them will get wardecced and lose their POS (some will take the pos down first). it will probably take a couple months to settle down again, but in that time ice prices will probably spike for the POS fuel, before it returns to equilibrium. anyone who is in a position to supply fuel during the spike will make a good return on investment, but the best ISK will likely be from sales away from the trade hubs (where the POS cannot place), in whatever systems the new POS tend to get put in. we may see a ripple effect into mining barge demand for ice mining, probably starting before the update actually hits. whoever is manufacturing the POS components will make the most income short-term,unless speculators flood the market.

changes to the slot system will most likely mean we will see a lot more research and invention take place. this will probably show a short-term spike, as more people try out the system than before, resulting in short-term demand spikes for things like datacores. demand for researched BPOs will probably fluctuate for a while. after a lot of people lose money to not knowing what they are doing, the market should stabilize again.

in general, the safest assumption is that a lot of people will not read the update carefully, and then waste money as they learn the hard way.
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#16 - 2014-04-17 23:37:12 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Knutto wrote:
Where they exactly say that POSes will be hit by taxes? I can't find the part in the new dev blog where they clearly state it.


They say it in the threadnought that spawned from the dev blog.


Also, I wanted to post an isotopes analysis of mine but as anyone may easily verify by reading the Reverence thread, CCP changed their stuff again so the market data extraction program does not work at the moment Cry



You know there's a json export for market data now? Sure, it doesn't contain everything you want, but it does contain the majority of what you'd need to see consumption. ish.

https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

Soldarius
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#17 - 2014-04-21 16:25:34 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php


Dat tool, awesome.

http://youtu.be/YVkUvmDQ3HY

Dachhan
Pnex Pwn Squad
#18 - 2014-04-23 14:53:36 UTC
Soldarius wrote:
Steve Ronuken wrote:
https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php


Dat tool, awesome.


Seconded.. this tool is great.
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#19 - 2014-04-23 15:04:38 UTC
Dachhan wrote:
Soldarius wrote:
Steve Ronuken wrote:
https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php


Dat tool, awesome.


Seconded.. this tool is great.



You can thank FoxFour for it Smile (along with some other devs helping with his heavy lifting)

I just slapped a frontend together for it, using Google charts.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

ChromeStriker
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#20 - 2014-04-25 07:42:11 UTC
If there isnt Moon and PI changes this summer i will be hugely surprised. Theyre hitting everything else, and putting a new UI to it all...

No Worries

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