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Building Ships

Author
Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#21 - 2014-04-03 13:22:19 UTC
Gilbaron wrote:
Alright, let's bring some actual numbers into this:

http://imgur.com/mK0NkjS

Battleships, good BPO/BPCs, minerals bought via buy orders, ships sold via sell orders.

That window looks like you REALLY should start building Hyperions, however, you first need to look at some other values.

Let's check the market for Hyperions:
http://imgur.com/GldxDhD

what does that tell you ? today, hyperions are spiking and at 220m ISK. a price of 200m ISK is a more reasonable price you need to expect at the moment of your sale. people are really good at driving down the margin. they panic and try to sell ASAP to catch it, driving down the margin by undercutting deep. some people have access to "free" minerals and don't care about the current price and sell at whatever they consider a "nice" price. a reason to be very carefull about making and selling hyperions.

what else do we know about hyperions ? is there a hyperion doctrine out there ? where lot's of them go pop ? nope. there is not. you can check zkillboard. Hyperions are solo/smallscale boats that never die in huge numbers. that is a reason why you may not want to sell them (in jita)

back to my first screenshot. the SVR value is interesting. it tells you how long it's gonna take you to build the daily turnover for the jita market (in the screenshot, it's the daily average over the last 7 days). An SVR value of 3.64 for hyperions tells you that you need 3.64 production lines running 24/7 to cover everything sold in jita. that's not very much. with 7m ISK/hr you can expect a lot of competition for a market with very little demand. do you really consider this a good market ?

Last, but not least: the Hyperion Alliastra Edition. That ship explains a part of the demand. people buy it to have it in their hangar, not to go out and lead it to a glorious death. The demand is a one time thing and not constant. Does that sound lucrative in the long run ?

Last but not least: Transport. You need two Freighters for a 1 day batch of battleships. That's a lot of work. You can't even go #yolo and put everything in one freighter, it simply won't fit. Does that sound like fun ? 2 (1.8 or so if you run it 24/7) freighter roundtrips per 24 hours. For Fuel Blocks, it's one Roundtrip every 3 Days. Yes, you can pay Red Frog or PushX to do the work for you, but it may take a while (during which you are not generating wealth) and it's gonna eat your margin.

I made Abaddons, Rokhs, Hyperions and Maelstroms a few days before the patch and sold them for absolutely crazy prices, but that was a one time thing.

TL:DR:

don't make ships for jita unless you are really sure that you can be online all the time for freighter runs and undercutting.




I don't know what fuel blocks you're running but I use 2 freighters a day, not 1 per 3 days.
Muffet McStrudel
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#22 - 2014-04-03 13:22:26 UTC
I think the real issue is the best place for anyone to make production isk is in 0.0, however, the issue is that hot drop and cloaking mechanics make it pretty well impossible to accomplish.

CCP needs to either remove the ability for cloakers to hotdrop, or set a timer on afk cloaking so the account times out. After all, what are these big risks we keep hearing the PVP pilots taking in 0.0?

Any 6 mo. old cloaking noob can pretty much lock down isk / mining production in a system for as long as they are willing to get on after down time. It's stupid, and the problem is compounded even more by allowing people to pay for alt accounts with isk.
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#23 - 2014-04-03 13:37:03 UTC
Sister Hyde wrote:
Gilbaron wrote:
Alright, let's bring some actual numbers into this:

An SVR value of 3.64 for hyperions tells you that you need 3.64 production lines running 24/7 to cover everything sold in jita.



I believe there's a mistake in your otherwise helpful post: AFAIK, the SVR tells you how many manufacturers (producing on all 11 lines) it takes to satisfy demand in the region. There are about 40 Hyperions sold in Jita each day, a single manufacturer couldn't possibly deliver that.



3.64 is the average daily SVR for the last week

making 40 hyperions takes 5d 9h 31m 25s of manufacturing (PE 20) resulting in an SVR of 5.something. there are less than 40 hyperions sold per day in jita if you ignore the spike from the new skins. so 3.64 makes sense.

Quote:
I don't know what fuel blocks you're running but I use 2 freighters a day, not 1 per 3 days.


i was using a batch size of 2000 production runs (80.000 blocks) as my reference. 1.something bn ISK, ~400k m³. safe in an AFK freighter.
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#24 - 2014-04-03 13:40:16 UTC
Muffet McStrudel wrote:
I think the real issue is the best place for anyone to make production isk is in 0.0, however, the issue is that hot drop and cloaking mechanics make it pretty well impossible to accomplish.

CCP needs to either remove the ability for cloakers to hotdrop, or set a timer on afk cloaking so the account times out. After all, what are these big risks we keep hearing the PVP pilots taking in 0.0?

Any 6 mo. old cloaking noob can pretty much lock down isk / mining production in a system for as long as they are willing to get on after down time. It's stupid, and the problem is compounded even more by allowing people to pay for alt accounts with isk.


production is completely safe from AFK cloakies and hotdrops. however, production is not worth it, your margin is no bigger than in highsec and there are many factors that cut into it.

with current game mechanics it's stupid to make anything but caps, supercaps and maybe T2 production from BPOs in nullsec.
Muffet McStrudel
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#25 - 2014-04-03 14:07:11 UTC
Gilbaron wrote:
Muffet McStrudel wrote:
I think the real issue is the best place for anyone to make production isk is in 0.0, however, the issue is that hot drop and cloaking mechanics make it pretty well impossible to accomplish.

CCP needs to either remove the ability for cloakers to hotdrop, or set a timer on afk cloaking so the account times out. After all, what are these big risks we keep hearing the PVP pilots taking in 0.0?

Any 6 mo. old cloaking noob can pretty much lock down isk / mining production in a system for as long as they are willing to get on after down time. It's stupid, and the problem is compounded even more by allowing people to pay for alt accounts with isk.


production is completely safe from AFK cloakies and hotdrops. however, production is not worth it, your margin is no bigger than in highsec and there are many factors that cut into it.

with current game mechanics it's stupid to make anything but caps, supercaps and maybe T2 production from BPOs in nullsec.



I would argue if you can't mine the minerals for production in 0.0, production is hardly "safe". I've found certain hulls and basic T1 modules to be quite profitable in 0.0

Only a crazy or unemployed man would move his T2 BPO to null to produce on-site. BPC's ok.
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#26 - 2014-04-03 14:25:28 UTC
Quote:
I would argue if you can't mine the minerals for production in 0.0, production is hardly "safe". I've found certain hulls and basic T1 modules to be quite profitable in 0.0


nullsec mining is something different.

Quote:
Only a crazy or unemployed man would move his T2 BPO to null to produce on-site. BPC's ok.


moving T2 BPOs through null or lowsec is a bazillion times safer than moving them through highsec. you are safe as long as you always and under all circumstances keep a JC and a blops in the station with the BPO.
Perkin Warbeck
Higher Than Everest
#27 - 2014-04-05 22:56:48 UTC
Darkateyer Baker wrote:
Okay but what type of ammo drones and rigs should I go for? I need specific ones to maximize my profits


If you are making T1 ammo then start with laser crystals. A lot of missioners use them because they don't break like their T2 counterparts. T1 drones would be Gallente and Minmatar light, meds,heavies and sentries (also electronic warfare drones). I'd go with sentries at first as a lot of people do not train T2 sentries for a fair while. Remember drones are being changed in the summer expansion.

Ships can be profitable but you need a well researched BPO which means you either need access to a POS or do your research in a low/null sec station. Even then the margins aren't great.

Don't mine your own minerals. It's opportunity cost is unacceptable.

Best of luck.
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#28 - 2014-04-05 23:09:37 UTC
Did you just suggest that he should produce something that never needs to be replaced once bought?
Perkin Warbeck
Higher Than Everest
#29 - 2014-04-06 04:52:19 UTC
Gilbaron wrote:
Did you just suggest that he should produce something that never needs to be replaced once bought?


Yup. Newer players will always buy them. He just wanted to make isk not a lot of isk
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#30 - 2014-04-07 04:45:22 UTC
Tech 1 ships are only profitable to build if you have near-perfect trade skills and trade-related standings. Don't try otherwise.

Tech 2 ships are often quite profitable if you can react quickly to changes in demand. I made a couple billion building Oneiros hulls when demand from Goonswarm Federation pushed their price into the stratosphere a couple months back. But you need to really understand the market, or you can get burned badly on these. (I'm sitting on dozens of ship blueprints now that are not even close to profitable to build due to market condition changes, such as Symmetry-decryptor Arazu BPCs).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Muffet McStrudel
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#31 - 2014-04-07 11:46:01 UTC
Gilbaron wrote:
Quote:
I would argue if you can't mine the minerals for production in 0.0, production is hardly "safe". I've found certain hulls and basic T1 modules to be quite profitable in 0.0


nullsec mining is something different.

Quote:
Only a crazy or unemployed man would move his T2 BPO to null to produce on-site. BPC's ok.


moving T2 BPOs through null or lowsec is a bazillion times safer than moving them through highsec. you are safe as long as you always and under all circumstances keep a JC and a blops in the station with the BPO.



Ahem. Only a FOOL would move their T2 BPO's to null sec. The only way, and I mean the ONLY way you'd keep even one out there would be if you kept it at an NPC station. Even then, if traffic is low, you might make more isk per unit, but you will probably sell a lot less units. Therefore, empire is the only sane place to keep them.
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