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Why everyone is wrong about minerals and the time to buy is now.

First post
Author
Emily Spankratchet
Pragmatics
#21 - 2014-03-21 14:32:02 UTC
There may well be a brief increase in mineral supply as people refine and reprocess stuff to avoid refining losses before the changes are implemented.

I recently returned to the game after a five year break and have discovered that I have ~15-20 billion of assorted rat drops scattered throughout the galaxy. I suspect I will be refining a large proportion of that and selling the stuff that will actually make money. Of course, that's a larger proportion by volume than by value - I have yet to work out the ISK value of the minerals that will come out of this process.

I guess a lot of people will do the same once the date of the change is known.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
#22 - 2014-03-21 16:30:20 UTC
Kamikazie wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Kamikazie wrote:
Stuff
There might be a bit of a bump in mineral prices, but I doubt it will be spectacular. You did miss something though, but I'll leave it to you to wonder what, cos I'm mean.
Some stuff was left out on prupose.

Bottom line, trit is for sure not going to go down unless they introduce changes to mining beyond the batch sizes and mineral yields.
I doubt it will go down, but then I doubt it will go up much. It might prior to the change due to speculation and hoarding, but after the change everything will be about the same.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Erotica 1
Krypteia Operations
#23 - 2014-03-22 14:21:52 UTC
Personally, I'm looking forward to more ore in compressed form moving around highsec in freighters.

See Bio for isk doubling rules. If you didn't read bio, chances are you funded those who did.

mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#24 - 2014-03-22 14:58:47 UTC
Erotica 1 wrote:
Personally, I'm looking forward to more ore in compressed form moving around highsec in freighters.


This is the best and most true post you have ever made on these fine forums.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#25 - 2014-03-22 17:34:57 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Erotica 1 wrote:
Personally, I'm looking forward to more ore in compressed form moving around highsec in freighters.


This is the best and most true post you have ever made on these fine forums.



Freighter full of compressed glazed hedbergite please....

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

Otto Runkter
Renz Rigz
#26 - 2014-03-23 00:24:40 UTC
I strongly suspect it will affect the more expensive minerals more than the cheapies. It doesn't take long to mine tremendous quantities of trit. Recyclers may out number miners, but takes a LOT of people recycling to equal what one guy can mine in a mack in an hour- and there's a LOT of macks out there mining scordite and veldspar in high sec. I wonder if you don't realize just how many miners there are in high sec. And in many systems all they have to mine is scordite and veldspar. They still strip them. We're talking many many belts, many many systems every day. The percentage of minerals used in high sec that come from reprocessing vs. mining has got to be much higher in noxium and megacyte than the cheapest minerals. Obviously a lot larger raw quantity of trit comes from reprocessing (and a lot more is needed as well), but it's a drop in the ocean compared to trit mined versus the rarer minerals that are maybe more of a drop in a Solo cup. OK, that's a bad analogy, I'm sure both are more than a drop, but you get the idea.

Due to the OCD psyche of miners combined with the fact that, with enough effort, ore yields can be slightly higher (theoretically significantly higher in upgraded null stations) than they are now I don't think trit prices will skyrocket. Even an increase of 1 ISK is, percentage-wise, a pretty huge gain. 950 nox is much more realistic than 10 trit (or even 7 trit for that matter). Personally, I think trit is more likely to stay the same or slightly decrease than it is to go up, as even a slight ore yield gain may be able to offset the recycling loss. Or will there be enough ore refined in null for those potentially large yield gains to come into play?

A big question is what percentage of minerals go into capital and supercapital production (or large battleship operations in null for that matter). If it's high then we probably will see some level 3 stations where I think they get ore yields like 115%-120% compared to what they are now, so that could offset A LOT of lost repossessed mod minerals. OR, and this is a cool possibility, if any group started LARGE scale ore refinement in null to re-import back into high sec. It would be pretty awesome to see a convoy of 80 freighters with a heavy carrier escort (also full of compressed ore or minerals) moving through null and back. If you could turn profits of even 15% on something that's as scalable as ore and minerals, although still maybe unlikely for someone to do, it could be possible. It's probably one of the most scalable business a multi-trillionaire could get into. Maybe takes too many people/accounts to get enough volume to make it worth the effort though, I really don't know.

One unknown factor, as in real life, is besides what effect this actually has, is what effect is it perceived to have? Whether in EVE or in the stock market knowing when to sell is often harder than picking winners. The run up to this change, that will be even more important, and even harder to predict. Even if I'm right we could see mineral prices shoot up if everyone agrees with you, regardless of who's right. If that happens, whatever you do, don't be afraid to sell. I hope it works for you (well... not really; I don't really want higher mineral prices, but I don't wish anyone to lose ISK is the point), but if trit gets to 6-6.5 just enjoy your profit (personally I'd dump at 5.5, but then I wouldn't invest in it in the first place). It ain't gonna get to 10. Of that I'm sure. Just remember if you do make some money, then it goes way back down, any token of gratitude for my wisdom will, as always, be much appreciated. It would be no fun sitting on that much trit if it did hit 6.5, only to fall down to 4 a couple months later, even though I wouldn't count on it spiking in the first place. OR, even if I'm wrong does everybody have huge piles of junk scattered around the galaxy that they're gonna reprocess now while they can and push prices down? Just how big is the collective pile of junk that everyone just kinda puts off doing something with? A few trillion worth of minerals? 20? 50? More!?!?? I'm sure it's huge in any case, but how huge is difficult to know or even guess at. If everybody liquidated that would be a hell of a thing. If you've got your finger on the pulse of the big industrialists and market movers maybe you have some chance of predicting the former "feeling"; the later size of the junk pile you'll just have to guess though. I'm not even gonna try to answer either.

Disclosure: I have no large mineral investments; I'm not confident that this couldn't go either way... or nowhere. I do think nox (or maybe even isogen) is a much better shot than trit though if I were to make a play at it. Although my theory about their recycling impact is correct, but the collective "junk reserve" is big enough and gets liquidated, they very well could be the worst investment- at least for awhile. That's why I'm sitting this one out.
Brock Nelson
#27 - 2014-03-23 00:36:15 UTC
Got a tl;dr version?

Signature removed, CCP Phantom

Adunh Slavy
#28 - 2014-03-23 18:35:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
Less minerals from missions and rats, min prices go up. Min prices go up, more people mine, which means less people shooting rats. Less people shooting rats means less ISK in the economy. Less ISK in the economy means ISK is worth more, thus negating the increase in mineral prices.

How quickly that happens, how it manifests, much less what the price of anything might be three months down the road, is anyone's best guess.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Jacabon Mere
Capital Storm.
#29 - 2014-03-24 02:53:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Jacabon Mere
After the patch the demand will be for compressed ore, not minerals. The big consumers of trit will be buying compressed veld and compressed pyerite. Good luck offloading your trit. Or moving it.

Capital Storm is recruiting Aussies for Lowsec pvp and money making. Join "Capital Storm Pub" channel ingame. www.capitalstorm.net

Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#30 - 2014-03-24 04:10:17 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
mynnna wrote:
Erotica 1 wrote:
Personally, I'm looking forward to more ore in compressed form moving around highsec in freighters.


This is the best and most true post you have ever made on these fine forums.



Freighter full of compressed glazed hedbergite please....

unlikely to happen in hisec, but you never know...

I should buy an Ishtar.

mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#31 - 2014-03-24 12:32:26 UTC
Jacabon Mere wrote:
After the patch the demand will be for compressed ore, not minerals. The big consumers of trit will be buying compressed veld and compressed pyerite. Good luck offloading your trit. Or moving it.


Disagree - ore in both compressed and uncompressed forms will be more readily available on the market than now but prices of both ore and the minerals will track each other and there will continue to be a healthy market for raw minerals for people who don't want or feel the need to take the time to train perfect refining skills just to run their production lines.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
#32 - 2014-03-24 13:09:13 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Jacabon Mere wrote:
After the patch the demand will be for compressed ore, not minerals. The big consumers of trit will be buying compressed veld and compressed pyerite. Good luck offloading your trit. Or moving it.
Disagree - ore in both compressed and uncompressed forms will be more readily available on the market than now but prices of both ore and the minerals will track each other and there will continue to be a healthy market for raw minerals for people who don't want or feel the need to take the time to train perfect refining skills just to run their production lines.
Are you sure on that one? With compressed ore mainly being marketed to null (and WH) space, they would likely pay higher for compressed ore than the value of the minerals refined in high sec, as they would be getting more out of it refining in null. In the same way, I'd expect high sec players to want more for the compressed form of ore since they would have to have a POS to create it.

So after the change, compressed veld with trit at 5/unit, would be worth around 3.45m reprocessed in high sec. In null, it would be worth 3.93m. I'd expect the price of compressed ore to fall somewhere in the middle of those, so 3.7m ish. [Note, figures here are examples only, based on approximate values].

While I agree the demand for minerals will not decrease, I don't suppose it will increase by a staggering amount either, and any increase it does have will undoubtedly be suppressed by the enormous stockpiling that's already started.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#33 - 2014-03-24 19:04:02 UTC
absent further changes, trit and pyerite go down (not up) because suddenly anything manufactured in nullsec requires about 13-14% less mining man-hours it did before. consequently, demand for mining man-hours goes down and with it the cost of what is produced with mining man-hours: minerals

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Adunh Slavy
#34 - 2014-03-24 22:03:21 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
absent further changes, trit and pyerite go down (not up) because suddenly anything manufactured in nullsec requires about 13-14% less mining man-hours it did before. consequently, demand for mining man-hours goes down and with it the cost of what is produced with mining man-hours: minerals




Is this, "minerals from thin air" confirmed or just the result of the formulas?

Only takes one line of code to eliminate magic minerals:

if (refine_rate > 100) refine_rate == 100;



If CCP allows minerals to be created from thin air, then they are doing it wrong.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Kadl
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#35 - 2014-03-24 22:16:36 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
absent further changes, trit and pyerite go down (not up) because suddenly anything manufactured in nullsec requires about 13-14% less mining man-hours it did before. consequently, demand for mining man-hours goes down and with it the cost of what is produced with mining man-hours: minerals




Is this, "minerals from thin air" confirmed or just the result of the formulas?

Only takes one line of code to eliminate magic minerals:

if (refine_rate > 100) refine_rate == 100;



If CCP allows minerals to be created from thin air, then they are doing it wrong.


CCP is adding new minerals to all of the ores. This is a confirmed plan but subject to modification. All ores will suddenly have more minerals in them after the Summer Expansion. This is like the ships which suddenly needed more minerals to build. Those minerals will only be able to be accessed via POS refining or upgraded player owned stations. In the best case (fully upgraded Minmatar player owned station) a person will be able to refine 20% more minerals from the same ore.

The refining rate is also being changed at the same time. New refining rate != Old refining rate (does not equal).

The 13-14% less mining man-hours is simply Weaselior's prediction based on his expectations and the numbers we have.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
#36 - 2014-03-24 22:38:00 UTC
Kadl wrote:
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
absent further changes, trit and pyerite go down (not up) because suddenly anything manufactured in nullsec requires about 13-14% less mining man-hours it did before. consequently, demand for mining man-hours goes down and with it the cost of what is produced with mining man-hours: minerals




Is this, "minerals from thin air" confirmed or just the result of the formulas?

Only takes one line of code to eliminate magic minerals:

if (refine_rate > 100) refine_rate == 100;



If CCP allows minerals to be created from thin air, then they are doing it wrong.


CCP is adding new minerals to all of the ores. This is a confirmed plan but subject to modification. All ores will suddenly have more minerals in them after the Summer Expansion. This is like the ships which suddenly needed more minerals to build. Those minerals will only be able to be accessed via POS refining or upgraded player owned stations. In the best case (fully upgraded Minmatar player owned station) a person will be able to refine 20% more minerals from the same ore.

The refining rate is also being changed at the same time. New refining rate != Old refining rate (does not equal).

The 13-14% less mining man-hours is simply Weaselior's prediction based on his expectations and the numbers we have.
People keep saying 20%. Where is that % coming from? From what I've seen it will be an increase of 14.4% over high sec max. Or do you mean 20% more than is current, with high sec also receiving more at maximum?

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Kadl
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#37 - 2014-03-24 23:04:50 UTC
Ore and Ice Refining: Advertised percent | amount of new ore/ice vs currently received recieved | percent of max obtainable (Player Null = 100%)
NPC Station (with a highly skilled individual): 72.4% | 100% | 83.3%
POS High Sec: 75.3% | 104% | 86.7%
POS Low, Null, and Wormholes: 78.1% | 108% | 89.9%
Player Null Station (fully upgraded): 86.9% | 120% | 100%

Original Post

Lucas Kell wrote:
People keep saying 20%. Where is that % coming from? From what I've seen it will be an increase of 14.4% over high sec max. Or do you mean 20% more than is current, with high sec also receiving more at maximum?


When people mention 20% they are saying one of two things both of which are true.

1) Null Sec can refine ore to produce 20% more minerals then the current perfect refining.
2) Null Sec will refine ore to produce 20% more minerals than a perfect high sec refine (high sec refine = 100%).
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#38 - 2014-03-25 00:50:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Elizabeth Norn
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
absent further changes, trit and pyerite go down (not up) because suddenly anything manufactured in nullsec requires about 13-14% less mining man-hours it did before. consequently, demand for mining man-hours goes down and with it the cost of what is produced with mining man-hours: minerals




Is this, "minerals from thin air" confirmed or just the result of the formulas?

Only takes one line of code to eliminate magic minerals:

if (refine_rate > 100) refine_rate == 100;



If CCP allows minerals to be created from thin air, then they are doing it wrong.



Refine rates round the board are being reduced, and to compensate miners the amount of minerals refined from ore is being increased.

According to the dev blog Veldspar is gaining 38.3 percent more Tritanium, multiply that by 72.4 percent (best high sec station refine post patch) and you get 1.001292 times current the Tritanium you can get right now from Veldspar with a 100 percent refine, using an 86 percent refine you get about 1.18 times the Tritanium you can today.
Adunh Slavy
#39 - 2014-03-25 01:03:30 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:

According to the dev blog Veldspar is gaining 38.3 percent more Tritanium, multiply that by 72.4 percent (best high sec station refine post patch) and you get 1.001292 times current the Tritanium you can get right now from Veldspar with a 100 prcenterēfine, using an 86 percent refine you get about 1.18 time the Tritanium you can today.



Fair enough, perhaps I am misreading the context of some of these numbers. Just so long as minerals aren't magicly poofing into existance, we're good.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Jacabon Mere
Capital Storm.
#40 - 2014-03-25 02:07:18 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Elizabeth Norn wrote:

According to the dev blog Veldspar is gaining 38.3 percent more Tritanium, multiply that by 72.4 percent (best high sec station refine post patch) and you get 1.001292 times current the Tritanium you can get right now from Veldspar with a 100 prcenterēfine, using an 86 percent refine you get about 1.18 time the Tritanium you can today.



Fair enough, perhaps I am misreading the context of some of these numbers. Just so long as minerals aren't magicly poofing into existance, we're good.


Well they kind of are. Stockpile your ore now and refine in maxed minmatar outpost after the patch and you will get more than pre patch.

Capital Storm is recruiting Aussies for Lowsec pvp and money making. Join "Capital Storm Pub" channel ingame. www.capitalstorm.net

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