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Why everyone is wrong about minerals and the time to buy is now.

First post
Author
Kamikazie
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#1 - 2014-03-20 23:06:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Kamikazie
Lets take a look into the wonderful world of the EVE-Online Economy. It is currently for the most part save some NPC seeded items(mainly skillbooks) player run. So how do players run it? Simple! They build and sell. Other players turn around and buy then blow **** up. this creates supply and demand.

I tell this story below after I bought 15B tritanium and another 8B pyrite. Not isk value but units of.

Supply

Supply is this wonderful thing called trit. I know some people snort it but lets face it, its used for production in greater quantities(exponentially) then anything else. I have read most of the ongoing threads about mining and refining, but I feel as though one massive item was overlooked.

CCP Ytterbium wrote:
With the max reprocessing rate for any item that is not ore or ice dropping to 55%(with Scrapmetal Processing trained at 5), we needed to find other ways to favor compression or else null-security industry would simply stop functioning.


STOP!!!!! Did anyone read the first part of that sentence, or just skim to the end. There was two key things addressed here. Were going to ignore changes to compression because that is more of a long distance demand thing then a supply. They are reducing the amount of minerals received from refining loot from NPC drops. So lets think about this... Just how many NPCs are killed in EVE in a day. Then lets think about how much of that loot thanks to Mobile Tractor Units, MTUs, is actually refined. Well assume for a minute everyone does as I do, meta 4 is instantly in the station container labeled "For The Market." So what about the rest? Meta 1-2 go into the "To Be Refined" can. Meta 3 is split into whats worth listing and whats not.

So what happens when you cut the mineral value of something you refined for minerals? Well there is a set market price you and I are going to pay for meta 1-4 items. Its dictated by supply and demand. So were going to see a drop in the meta items prices because if you half the mineral value of an item, it still has a market price. Unfortunately for EVE if that mineral price is not greater then market price its going to be sold as an item instead of minerals. We all love ISK after all.

The markets can then see the amount of titanium and pyrite, the predominant minerals from refining, reduced significantly. While sure, not all minerals come from refining. Infact per miner vs per ratter I am willing to stick isk a miner will see in a given day more minerals then a ratter. The number of ratters far outnumbers then number of miners.

Where am I going with this, hopefully it dawned on you by now. We are going to have a significant amount of tritanium and pyrite removed from the supply category. If we remove the supply of something, it becomes more valuable. Unfortunately only CCP has the hard numbers on just how much trit comes from refining of items over refining of ore.

So changes to compression compound this. In highsec now only a corp who has standings to drop a tower can compress, which face it is not most mining corps. Sure corp sale prices will go through the roof as people buy them to drop tower to compress with and hand back to their alts. Maybe even refine at since the POS mods dont take tax and have a 52%(high sec pos mod) refinery with a 10 second cycle time. With the compressed minerals being primarily generated in lowsec and even more so in null sec, the price of minerals will go up even further as the only effective way to supply major 0.0 alliances the minerals they need is divert it from going into highsec and out into 0.0.. Speaking as a nullsec industrialist, there is never enough trit around. Its always being imported. The supply in highsec will begin to dwindle even further. Sure will there be a price breaking point for trit that people send it to empire over compress and ship to null? ABSOLUTELY.

TLDR long story short two more paragraphs. Lets look at history of EVE when the tech scandle broke, for those of you who dont know what I am talking about its this:

Google: EVE Online's POS Exploit Exposed

GM Grimmi wrote:
At the time we discovered the exploit in early December, there were 232 reactors running in the bugged state. Those were installed at 178 POS complexes owned by seven corporations. The scale of the operations differed quite a bit, with one corporation running 81 bugged reactors and another with 3 reactors active.


So what happened? People were making high end moon goo out of nothing. CCP removed a decent sized chunk of the market supply permanently and the prices skyrocketed to well over 4x in the end. Why do I bring it up, well read the conclusion.

Summing all of this up is the fact that trit sits at 5ish isk a unit because of the supply vs the demand. Were about to lose a chunk of the supply without a change in demand. If anything HERO Coalition's mindbogglingly large amount of T1 losses is going to increase demand as they get out of frigates and into cruiser/battleships. So this change in ratio will see low end materials coming out of NPC loot going through the roof. I expect to see trit at 10 or more isk a unit. Goons if you read this and do hulkageddon again, its ******* game over for the economy. You will literally nuke it from orbit to quote a good movie.

I hope someone proves me wrong because, I dont want to pay 2-3x as much for a ship

EDIT** If you find this helpful for the time invested to do an essay on this, send me some trit instead of isk, it'll be worth more when the expansion hits in a month or two.
Kamikazie
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#2 - 2014-03-20 23:15:12 UTC
reserved
Lim Yo Hwan
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2014-03-20 23:20:46 UTC
Bitcoin Tritanium To the moon!!! ┗(°0°)┛
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#4 - 2014-03-20 23:46:56 UTC
I could be wrong, but I'd be guessing that currently, 2% of Trit supply is reprocessed rat drops, 75% highsec miners, and 23% miners in other space.

If supply drops 2%, I can see that causing a price change, but not a big one.

Good luck with your speculation, I will remain deeply invested in Rattlesnakes instead.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Kamikazie
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#5 - 2014-03-20 23:52:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Kamikazie
I dunno Sabriz, NPC drops if you look at the piles of trit in mining systems vs ratting systems is pretty even and I'd say there is more in ratting then mining because the ratters build ammo and things that ratters just dont need. I also live in 0.0 and using 1 mining toon, my guys who rat and get the loot can outdo me in lowend minerals so much so I buy from them and mostly get highends. I do strip the belts clean.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#6 - 2014-03-21 00:07:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Elizabeth Norn
Mission drops have been almost worthless since they got nerfed two or three times in the last couple of years. Taking tips from Block? I don't think it worked out for him either.

Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
I could be wrong, but I'd be guessing that currently, 2% of Trit supply is reprocessed rat drops, 75% highsec miners, and 23% miners in other space.

If supply drops 2%, I can see that causing a price change, but not a big one.

Good luck with your speculation, I will remain deeply invested in Rattlesnakes instead.


Should've dumped the rattlers at 480 :p.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#7 - 2014-03-21 00:07:31 UTC
Kamikazie wrote:
I dunno Sabriz, NPC drops if you look at the piles of trit in mining systems vs ratting systems is pretty even and I'd say there is more in ratting then mining because the ratters build ammo and things that ratters just dont need. I also live in 0.0 and using 1 mining toon, my guys who rat and get the loot can outdo me in lowend minerals so much so I buy from them and mostly get highends. I do strip the belts clean.


The amount of trit vomited into the economy by the botted and the ISOboxed fleets (and the rare actual multiplayer fleet) in highsec is tremendous, however. We are talking over a trillion units a month. Ratters (even the rare breed that scoops every single thing with an MTU) are nothing next to that.

Nullsec mining, by design, is somewhat low on the Trit/Pyerite/Mex drops even after the recent changes. CCP's design intention is that nullsec is a net exporter of Morphite, Zydrine, Megacyte, Nocxicum and Isogen and a net importer of the others.

Now in a solidly locked down 0.0 system, an organised group might get a fair bit of reprocessable loot by dropping and bookmarking MTUs in each anomoly, then having one person come around once per hour in an Iteron scooping all of them. But that would be several ratters feeding one reprocessing alt. And they aren't getting anywhere near the volumes of minerals highsec vomits out.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#8 - 2014-03-21 00:11:49 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Mission drops have been almost worthless since they got nerfed two or three times in the last couple of years. Taking tips from Block? I don't think it worked out for him either.

Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
I could be wrong, but I'd be guessing that currently, 2% of Trit supply is reprocessed rat drops, 75% highsec miners, and 23% miners in other space.

If supply drops 2%, I can see that causing a price change, but not a big one.

Good luck with your speculation, I will remain deeply invested in Rattlesnakes instead.


Should've dumped the rattlers at 480 :p.




Mine are BPCs (so 140m less than hulls) but I'm willing to hold them longer. I see no way they are likely to fall below the current rate and plenty of potential to rise.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Kamikazie
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#9 - 2014-03-21 01:11:25 UTC
lets stay on topic?
Anders Madeveda
Usque Ad Mortem
#10 - 2014-03-21 01:27:48 UTC
Not sure how your analysis holds up when you consider that they are increasing the amount of minerals you receive when you reprocess. The net effect will be zero or somewhere close to it.
Volar Kang
Kang Industrial
#11 - 2014-03-21 02:19:17 UTC
I think there is some merit in what the OP says. My experience in null was that most people who need minerals rat rather than mine. Ratting gives you money + loot to refine for minerals and ratting in null was much more profitable than mining. Plus with ratting you have a chance at a good drop now and then that could be worth hundreds of millions.
Not saying it will be a big increase but when it goes live I would bet we see some upward movement in price. At the very least due to peoples inability to read the actual change log and just freak out.
Kamikazie
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#12 - 2014-03-21 02:28:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Kamikazie
Anders Madeveda wrote:
Not sure how your analysis holds up when you consider that they are increasing the amount of minerals you receive when you reprocess. The net effect will be zero or somewhere close to it.



You mean like this? Am I the only one who read this devblog carefully?

CCP Ytterbium wrote:
A character that has perfect skills/standings who reprocesses at a 50% station with all skills maxed but without the 4% implant will have 2.8% less reprocessed minerals than currently.


Yes I will give you 0.0 fully upgraded minmatar outposts which will cost for 3 levels of upgrade in the area of 40B will in fact have a better yield. However, consider most mining is done in highsec so that rules this out and back into the 2.8%less category.

CCP Ytterbium wrote:
someone with perfect skills, implant and standings refining at a fully upgraded Minmatar outpost will receive 14.4% more reprocessed minerals than currently


Bottom line is not all the miners will have all lvl 5 skills. Whereas before you could get 100% if you had refining 5 and refining efficiency 5 and no ore skills. Now you need them all which is several months alone just for the ore spec skills. Consider the amount of trit being consumed in EVE and then remove 5% for most people having no standings to the NPC corp and they take a tax. Then imagine and I am being generous that the miners have refining 5 and eff 5 but ore skills lvl 4, you only get 71% of your ore which is 4.2% less then maxed add the two together, that is a big hit with a tax at 66%. Sure there is more minerals per refine and the refines are less ore per, but still will not offset the nerf to refining.
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#13 - 2014-03-21 02:44:19 UTC
...cracks the whip so the peons keep busy, and looks forward to the summer "goldrush" of the crazy market scams and barely concealed manipulation stunts that these changes will bring. Twisted


"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#14 - 2014-03-21 02:45:22 UTC
that 4% implant is 300 million or so.

It's not exactly a huge roadblock.

And not all miners need to be able to refine. That's what corporations are for.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mZSNGLaxi1A-Q818nApcJ2kNJOfnJmhcAcYn-mulzEU/edit?usp=sharing may be of interest so you can see how skills and implants affect things.

And remember, there's no /need/ for miners to refine. They can sell the ore directly, if they don't have the skills or friends to refine it at a level that's acceptable.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#15 - 2014-03-21 03:16:36 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
that 4% implant is 300 million or so.

It's not exactly a huge roadblock.


What is actually required for it to enter the economy?

If I knew the implant's name I'd research it, but is it an LP item? Rare drop? Both?

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Kamikazie
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#16 - 2014-03-21 03:43:10 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Steve Ronuken wrote:
that 4% implant is 300 million or so.

It's not exactly a huge roadblock.


What is actually required for it to enter the economy?

If I knew the implant's name I'd research it, but is it an LP item? Rare drop? Both?


Zainou 'Beancounter' Refining RX-804
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#17 - 2014-03-21 05:44:07 UTC
Volar Kang wrote:
I think there is some merit in what the OP says. My experience in null was that most people who need minerals rat rather than mine. Ratting gives you money + loot to refine for minerals and ratting in null was much more profitable than mining. Plus with ratting you have a chance at a good drop now and then that could be worth hundreds of millions.
Not saying it will be a big increase but when it goes live I would bet we see some upward movement in price. At the very least due to peoples inability to read the actual change log and just freak out.


People who need minerals in nullsec import them in compressed form so as to take advantage of the highsec mining population hundreds of times larger than anything they might have locally.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#18 - 2014-03-21 05:50:17 UTC
Kamikazie wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Steve Ronuken wrote:
that 4% implant is 300 million or so.

It's not exactly a huge roadblock.


What is actually required for it to enter the economy?

If I knew the implant's name I'd research it, but is it an LP item? Rare drop? Both?


Zainou 'Beancounter' Refining RX-804



Thanks, so its production cost is 30m ISK + 80k LP. That kinda kills off my interest in speculating in that implant.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
#19 - 2014-03-21 08:07:38 UTC
Kamikazie wrote:
Stuff
There might be a bit of a bump in mineral prices, but I doubt it will be spectacular. You did miss something though, but I'll leave it to you to wonder what, cos I'm mean.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Kamikazie
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#20 - 2014-03-21 14:09:59 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Kamikazie wrote:
Stuff
There might be a bit of a bump in mineral prices, but I doubt it will be spectacular. You did miss something though, but I'll leave it to you to wonder what, cos I'm mean.


Some stuff was left out on prupose.

Bottom line, trit is for sure not going to go down unless they introduce changes to mining beyond the batch sizes and mineral yields.
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