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How long to we have to pay 1B isk for a PLEX?

First post
Author
Julius Rigel
#41 - 2014-03-17 09:31:09 UTC
Plug in Baby wrote:
While some of your logic is valid, the idea that something of scarcity is guaranteed to increased in price is completely incorrect.
I never said it was guaranteed, just very likely, based on the concepts I outlined. I won't deny that there could be some emotions of optimism involved, but I try to look at the facts. There is also the possibility that CCP will do something that ultimately affects the supply or demand for ISK or PLEX, such as making PLEX 20 days instead of 30 (price of PLEX would go down), or removing bounties from NPC pirates (price decrease of ISK would level off a bit).

Plug in Baby wrote:
I would estimate that PLEX is currently above its true value due to the large number of largely uninformed speculators.
I agree, it should be a bit lower.

Plug in Baby wrote:
Investing in PLEX when it is peaking will mean decrease the value of the investment, better to invest in conventional items until the bubble pops, then go for the long term investment.
I agree.

Plug in Baby wrote:
Also in all of this it is worth noting the opportunity cost, the ISK you earn from investing in PLEX even over a peroid of relatively good growth is not 'free ISK' chances are more could have been made by investing in something with steeper growth and you may have made an opportunity loss, although long term it'll still be ok
I see it as a question of time (man-hours). A trader will be able to spend more time/effort flipping commodities to make more ISK. An "investor", per se, will be able to spend more time/effort swing trading to maximize longer-term profit off of price movements. A rich brat with too much money will be pretty happy to spend no time and no effort for the relative certainty of not losing buying power over time.

And indeed, since we are talking about investing smartly, and not about station trading, or about dumping ISK into a commodity that is relatively stable, you are absolutely correct that there are better items to trade for better profit.
Chris Lehman
Doomheim
#42 - 2014-03-17 11:41:38 UTC
Julius Rigel wrote:

Plug in Baby wrote:
Also in all of this it is worth noting the opportunity cost, the ISK you earn from investing in PLEX even over a peroid of relatively good growth is not 'free ISK' chances are more could have been made by investing in something with steeper growth and you may have made an opportunity loss, although long term it'll still be ok
I see it as a question of time (man-hours). A trader will be able to spend more time/effort flipping commodities to make more ISK. An "investor", per se, will be able to spend more time/effort swing trading to maximize longer-term profit off of price movements. A rich brat with too much money will be pretty happy to spend no time and no effort for the relative certainty of not losing buying power over time.

And indeed, since we are talking about investing smartly, and not about station trading, or about dumping ISK into a commodity that is relatively stable, you are absolutely correct that there are better items to trade for better profit.

PLEX used to be a good long-term investment for those who don't have the time or patience to watch the market and can afford to lose a few percent. If you have time time to do it yourself and diversify, PLEX is definitely on the bottem of your to-buy list.
cpt Mark
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#43 - 2014-03-17 23:42:08 UTC
jenks jenki wrote:
I know exactly what you mean, it does just seem to get more and more to keep my accounts going and the cost of ore is staying the same. I think it wont be long before it start forcing high sec players out of the game.



Jesus christ the subscription fee is nothing anyway.
cpt Mark
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#44 - 2014-03-17 23:51:40 UTC
Billy Hix wrote:
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next year or so.

If PLEX hit 1B or even 2 B then we should see a big drop in the number of people who can afford to pay their accounts using PLEX. However if people can sell their PLEX for 2B isk I imagine many more people paying real life money to be in game rich (assuming PLEX has increased more than general inflation)

The piece of the puzzle I am looking forward to playing out is mineral supply. We all know a huge % of the mineral supply comes from multiboxing miners paying for their 10+ accounts with PLEX. If they can't afford to pay with PLEX, will they move to paying for those accounts with real money? Or will we see a big drop in mineral supply as they let most of their accounts lapse.



Basically as the value of plexes increase ingame it becomes more desirable to:

a) Purchase your game time with cash
b) Leave the game
c) Purchase PLEXs to sell for ISK (as you get more isk per cent)

Each of these three has the effect of increasing supply and lowering demand of PLEX. This in turn lowers the value of PLEX.

As the value of plex decrease it becomes more desirable to:

a) Purchase your game time with plex
b) Acquire more alt accounts
c) Avoid purchasing plex to sell for ISK (as you get less isk per cent)

Each of these three has the effect of decreasing supply and raising demand of PLEX. This in turn increases the value of PLEX.

And the game of ping pong continues long into the ages untill the end of time, with a gradual increase known as inflation.

OFC it is possible for the value of PLEX cards to decrease, however generally speaking they are similar to gold in that they will always be in demand and their level of demand will depend on the richness of players/ people which therefore means it will stay in line with inflation (Whilst if your ISK was liquidated you would see its value depreciate in relative terms).

Therefore, storing ISK in plex is a long term objective useful for isk that is sat doing nothing.
Otto Runkter
Renz Rigz
#45 - 2014-03-18 00:53:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Otto Runkter
To be honest I've always been perplexed (get it?) as to just how cheap PLEX have been. When you think of what you get for your money; would you really spend, what, almost $70 for a fitted dred? Maybe not quite, but damn close. That seems ridiculous. I would think $10-$20 would be tops. Even that seems plenty for something that can get blown apart in an instant. Yeah, I'm sure some Russian billionaire's kid has bought a titan with PLEX before, but that sort of thing has to be really rare. If I had no idea and never knew, if I had to guess what a PLEX price would be I'd say 2-4 billion. I can't believe people spend money and get so little ISK in return. When I first started I knew the program existed, but figured I'd never be able to use it as I'm not "that hardcore guy." Little did I know just how easy it was.

I looked around in some neighboring regions the other day to see if there were opportunities there in places without one of the "big 5" hubs, and opportunities abound. There's actually some volume there! In the end though I decided it was too much effort to get off my fat ass to move back and forth, and even more effort to train up another trader. If I ran four traders on two accounts and really worked it I know I could get well over a billion- closer to two-every day (average anyway). It would be a ****-ton of work, which is why I don't, but I could PLEX both accounts in a day. Hell, I could keep all six training and get my PLEX back in half a week! I'm just amazed (and thankful!!) that so many people spend money on PLEX only to sell them so cheaply. I'd never have believed there would be so many when there's so many players with soooooooo much ISK. I don't believe for a second that I'm unusually wealthy. I see some of the big transactions going on, and there's people with almost limitless ISK, and lots of them. There's lots of **** or extreme quantities that I could never afford. So how is it that people buying PLEX outnumber these ultra-rich so much, especially when selling a PLEX gets you so little??? If PLEX do go to a billion, I still think it's a pretty good deal. Yeah, it's gonna he hard to get it ratting, and the multi-box mining fleets will suffer (unless, for just that reason, mineral prices explode), but I never thought I'd be someone who would be able to PLEX at all. I figured that rare honor would be reserved only for the most hardcore players that did little else other than play EVE. Instead I find it to be not a big deal at all, even though I'm not one of the big shots. That was a huge shocker to discover that, "Wait a minute!... let me check the math again...I don't have to pay for this!!!" No my friend, PLEX are cheap, even now, and even at a billion. Not that I want them to go up, I don't at all, but I'm just continually amazed how cheap they are when you consider their cost/reward ratio for the people who buy them with money.
Monics Shakhtar
Minmatar Secret Service
Ushra'Khan
#46 - 2014-03-18 10:10:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Monics Shakhtar
I think PLEX in EVE universe and Gold in real life have many similarities... i will go into that in details later on.
But for now i want to talk about something that isn't taken into consideration, it's about the "0.01ISK Buy Orders" for PLEX (and similar too-low orders). I think they are disrupting (intentionally or not) the Buy/Sell ratio stats in a way that affects the selling price when sellers look at the buyers average price on eve-central.com for example. There should be a threshold for the Buyer Order on any item specially the PLEX since it is related to real money!
Julius Rigel
#47 - 2014-03-18 12:30:54 UTC
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
There should a threshold for the Buyer Order on any item specially the PLEX since it is related to real money!
What? No...

First of all, (according to the wiki) the numbers you see in the market history have already been trimmed - that is, the outliers have been identified by some formula, and removed from the data. So what you see in the history is already CCP's idea of "true" values.

Secondly, the data you get from eve-central is not "official". It's simply numbers that people have found in their cache files and uploaded to a player-run data collection service. Now, eve-central does their own trimming of the data that you see on the site, but I'm not sure if that includes deleting outliers or something else, or just the exclusion of nullsec regions.

Places like eve-central aren't obligated to make sure the numbers they display are make sense, or even that they are correct.

What they do, however, is provide an API with all the raw numbers (minus duplicates) they receive, in XML format, so you could just download them and do your own thing if you wanted. You could make graphs of just the sell order price, or adjust all the buy order prices in some way, or have just the Jita price, or whatever. There's also the EVE Market Data Relay if you want super-duper real-time access to all the market data that everyone is scraping, but I think you will have to do a fair amount more to sort through it all, as it's just going to vomit lots of orders at you continuously.

In practice, the price of a PLEX is what someone is willing to pay for it, and what someone is willing to sell for. No more, no less. So whether or not you feel like below-average buy orders are skewing the charts, that's still what those buyers are paying for their PLEX, and that's what the people selling to those buy order are willing to sell for.
Monics Shakhtar
Minmatar Secret Service
Ushra'Khan
#48 - 2014-03-19 06:15:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Monics Shakhtar
Julius Rigel wrote:
In practice, the price of a PLEX is what someone is willing to pay for it, and what someone is willing to sell for. No more, no less. So whether or not you feel like below-average buy orders are skewing the charts, that's still what those buyers are paying for their PLEX, and that's what the people selling to those buy order are willing to sell for.


You're right and wrong in that, because after-all you can't put a 1$ Buy Order for a Ferrari...
Salvos Rhoska
#49 - 2014-03-19 08:23:19 UTC
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
you can't put a 1$ Buy Order for a Ferrari...


Yes, you can.

Please, stop posting.
Julius Rigel
#50 - 2014-03-19 08:41:51 UTC
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
You're right and wrong in that, because after-all you can't put a 1$ Buy Order for a Ferrari...
Why not?

There are even entire web services dedicated to bartering goods and services this way. You could go on ebay and bid 1$ on a Ferrari listed for auction, or you could make a post on craigslist offering to buy a Ferrari for 1$... there are many possibilities to do this.

Heck, there's nothing stopping you from walking into a Ferrari dealership and offering a dollar for a brand new Ferrari. In all likelihood, the dealer would not take your offer, but a bid is a bid, whether it fills or not. That's all a (limit) buy order is - a bid for an item (at a certain price).

You can place all the 1 ISK buy orders you want, and in all likelihood your 1 ISK buy order will never float to the surface and gain priority*, and it won't bother anyone or cause any trouble, the same way walking into a Ferrari dealership and politely asking a dealer if he would sell you a Ferrari for a dollar isn't going to cause any trouble. Perhaps you would get a blank stare or a chuckle, but there's no law against asking.

* In EVE, as I'm sure we are aware, the order priority is: 1) Best price (lowest sell when buying, highest buy when selling), 2) Earliest order creation date (so if two orders have the same price, whichever one was placed first will fill first).

There is currently more than enough demand for PLEX that there is a constant flow of "reasonable" bids in most regions, as you can see from this picture. Example: eve-central quicklook filtered by highest bid for each region, 08:00 March 18 2014

This could change, but it probably won't.
RudinV
Sons Of Mother's Friend
Can i bring my Drake...
#51 - 2014-03-19 09:37:26 UTC
its funny to see carebears whine about plex prices, cose mostly its their fault. u farm more iskies>inflation>plex strike 700mTwisted
Monics Shakhtar
Minmatar Secret Service
Ushra'Khan
#52 - 2014-03-19 10:57:37 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
you can't put a 1$ Buy Order for a Ferrari...


Yes, you can.

Please, stop posting.

Oh really? Sure you can! You can do anything!
But you should go and try it, and don't forget to come back and share us your experience Big smile
Salvos Rhoska
#53 - 2014-03-19 11:05:57 UTC
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
you can't put a 1$ Buy Order for a Ferrari...


Yes, you can.

Please, stop posting.

Oh really? Sure you can! You can do anything!
But you should go and try it, and don't forget to come back and share us your experience Big smile


Then why did you say you can't?
Julius Rigel
#54 - 2014-03-19 11:30:08 UTC
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
But you should go and try it, and don't forget to come back and share us your experience
There. I've placed a buy order on a Ferrari for a dollar. Are you satisfied?
Monics Shakhtar
Minmatar Secret Service
Ushra'Khan
#55 - 2014-03-19 11:35:49 UTC
Julius Rigel wrote:
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
But you should go and try it, and don't forget to come back and share us your experience
There. I've placed a buy order on a Ferrari for a dollar. Are you satisfied?

I liked and respected your point of view in what you replied previously.
But for this one, you should recognize the difference between a "bidding" and placing a final and complete "buy order"!
dan skirata
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#56 - 2014-03-19 12:06:20 UTC
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
Julius Rigel wrote:
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
But you should go and try it, and don't forget to come back and share us your experience
There. I've placed a buy order on a Ferrari for a dollar. Are you satisfied?

I liked and respected your point of view in what you replied previously.
But for this one, you should recognize the difference between a "bidding" and placing a final and complete "buy order"!


I don't think you understand the terminology of what a buy order means..

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Monics Shakhtar
Minmatar Secret Service
Ushra'Khan
#57 - 2014-03-19 13:17:39 UTC
dan skirata wrote:
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
Julius Rigel wrote:
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
But you should go and try it, and don't forget to come back and share us your experience
There. I've placed a buy order on a Ferrari for a dollar. Are you satisfied?

I liked and respected your point of view in what you replied previously.
But for this one, you should recognize the difference between a "bidding" and placing a final and complete "buy order"!


I don't think you understand the terminology of what a buy order means..

Looking forward to take some Finance private courses with you. Lol
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#58 - 2014-03-19 14:15:32 UTC
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
I liked and respected your point of view in what you replied previously.
But for this one, you should recognize the difference between a "bidding" and placing a final and complete "buy order"!


Monics Shakhtar wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Monics Shakhtar wrote:
you can't put a 1$ Buy Order for a Ferrari...


Yes, you can.

Please, stop posting.

Oh really? Sure you can! You can do anything!
But you should go and try it, and don't forget to come back and share us your experience Big smile


It's not like a 1 ISK buy order for a PLEX will ever get filled either.
Ronny Hugo
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#59 - 2014-03-19 17:31:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Ronny Hugo
The reason for the plex price increase is that there's more people buying plex with isk instead of dollars because they can afford to.
Iaredumbomaths
Doomheim
#60 - 2014-03-19 23:27:28 UTC
mynna wrote:
Three years ago PLEX were 360m, roughly. If you accept that it's linear, then you can plug in what we've got (setting 3 years ago as x=0 and y=360, today as x=1095 and y=652) into a linear equation and approximate plex price as y=(4/15)*x+360.

Plug 1b in for Y, solve for X, and you get 2400.


i'm quite horrible at maths, maybe kindergarten level would be a compliment
but can you please explain to me how you got to 2400, and what's the (4/15)*x for ?