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POCO Supply and Demand Analysis - Impact likely to be greater than current accepted.
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Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#1 - 2011-11-27 20:27:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Wyke Mossari
My PI Production spreadsheet now includes Player Owned Customs Offices. It dynamically updates it's prices from Eve-Central and production functionality is explained elsewhere. Current Jita prices for all PI materials have been uploaded to Eve Central within the last hour.

POCO build cost (E17-FW & E23-CONCORD) at current market rates is around 104M, it was 100m after DT and 95Million yesterday. Materials are the most significant element of the cost at 85 percent from FW Corps.

Details the current supply situation for P3 & P4 materials, the supply ratio for P4 is shown in column I and columns P V and AB show P3. The lower the number the shorter the supply and hence most profitable items (bright green) for speculation, items in dark green are under supplied but not critically low, items in red are currently over supply compared to likely demand for POCO.

The demand ratios for P3 & P4 to build POCO uses a base line of 1 in 10 low-sec planets needing a new or replacement POCO in the near future. This might seem high but is predominately a base-line to compare relative supply. However, the current supply of P3 & P4 is not even close to satisfying this requirement, there is sufficient supply to replace approximately 3 in every 100 POCO in low-sec and WH systems.

The consequence of this short fall will hit home as the POCO start getting interdicted. POCO have 10 million hit points and I've seen reports that a dozen ship BS fleet can take them down in around 15 mins, which is considered the typical defensive response time. Alliances cannot afford to let their POS supply planets sit idle, they will have to replace lost POCOs quickly to keep the fuel flowing. The likely concerted interdiction against POS supply planets will make the Oxytopes interdiction look insignificant.

While any interdiction will stress prices of tower fuel, coolant, mechanical parts and robotics, we can expect P4 prices to rise sharply and those short fall P3 items to literally explode in price.

POCO opens up the opportunity for economic attrition warfare in a way and scale not previously seen in EVE and there is profit to be made speculating in this.
243636
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#2 - 2011-11-27 21:04:23 UTC
It will be interesting to see if this tuens out or not.
Either way it looks like a lot of work went into it.
Nice1 Big smile
Alisarina
Zebra Corp
Goonswarm Federation
#3 - 2011-11-27 23:07:46 UTC
Thank you very much for updating the sheet. I use it quite regulaly. It is the best I have found out there, assuming Eve-Central is up and running that is :D
Mantra Achura
Stammtisch
#4 - 2011-11-27 23:19:51 UTC
You've done a great work for the community.

I'm using that sheet for several month as a main reference of PI prices.

Keep it up!
Comdyego
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#5 - 2011-11-27 23:28:57 UTC
First id like to say im a big fan of you spreadsheets. The costing looks solid except you might want to cost LP at 2000, which is a more likely number for new items.

I did a calculation on the effect of POCOs on PI Raw Material Demand. I assumed that POCO would be replenished at the same rate as POS's, so I used forge average daily volume (about 155 POSs). Then I calculated the Raw Material Volumes with and without POCOs and compared the two (see Custom Office Gantry Effect sheet). The sheet 'Product Daily Volumes' contains the items that use PI materials for which I calculated Raw Materials. The actual calculation was done in MS SQL Server using the Eve DB Datadump and Market Datadump.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqV1bpYXPCoTdExFSXdoVkU4NUUzYjhlQ3RiNXM3dHc
Akrasjel Lanate
Immemorial Coalescence Administration
Immemorial Coalescence
#6 - 2011-11-28 10:19:38 UTC
Nice stuff you have there Wyke. Big smile

CEO of Lanate Industries

Citizen of Solitude
Tahna Rouspel
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#7 - 2011-11-29 05:14:38 UTC
You have some nice spreadsheets! Thank you :D
pmchem
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#8 - 2011-11-29 20:50:31 UTC
Yo Wyke I was waiting until postpatch to post in MD, but you probably want to update your taxes. They're way off. Relevant links:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=33468&find=unread
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/CustomsOffice

https://twitter.com/pmchem/ || http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/community-spotlight-garpa/ || Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#9 - 2011-11-29 21:36:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Wyke Mossari
pmchem wrote:
Yo Wyke I was waiting until postpatch to post in MD, but you probably want to update your taxes. They're way off. Relevant links:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=33468&find=unread
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/CustomsOffice


I was waiting for deployment to confirm what was happening about the change of the tax rates, because those on wiki look borked, they are 100 times greater than now e.g.

Quote:

The taxable value are the same for all items in the same tier
Advanced Commodities: 1,350,000.00 ISK
Specialized Commodities: 70,000.00 ISK
Refined Commodities: 9,000.00 ISK
Basic commodities: 500.00 ISK
Planet Resources: 5,00 ISK


However given the fact I cannot play because my foreground strobes off constantly I suggest that people copy the current spread sheet into their own google account and manually edit the tax rates in columns E & F of the "Tier" sheet.
Tahna Rouspel
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#10 - 2011-11-29 21:58:23 UTC
Tax are indeed 100 times higher than pre-patch (In Highsec)
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#11 - 2011-11-29 22:07:57 UTC
Tahna Rouspel wrote:
Tax are indeed 100 times higher than pre-patch (In Highsec)


So it seems, while the original dev blog said

Quote:
Customs Offices in High Sec will remain under the authority of CONCORD who will, in turn, charge doubled import and export taxes
Tahna Rouspel
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#12 - 2011-11-29 22:17:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Tahna Rouspel
Wyke Mossari wrote:
...


The big difference comes from the updated value of PI products. Before the patch, tax was a mere 0.1% of the value or close enough, now it's actually a 10% of the market value.

The Interbus CO in my wormhole has tax set at 17%. Before patch, I was paying 200,000 isk per day, now the number will be closer to 5,000,000 isk per day. That's about 30% of my PI profit.
Ethilia
Freelance Excavation and Resistance
#13 - 2011-11-29 22:44:12 UTC
Tahna Rouspel wrote:
Wyke Mossari wrote:
...


The big difference comes from the updated value of PI products. Before the patch, tax was a mere 0.1% of the value or close enough, now it's actually a 10% of the market value.

The Interbus CO in my wormhole has tax set at 17%. Before patch, I was paying 200,000 isk per day, now the number will be closer to 5,000,000 isk per day. That's about 30% of my PI profit.

Can you list the pre and post patch tax rates per m3? I can't seem to find a reliable source.
Tahna Rouspel
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#14 - 2011-11-29 22:51:53 UTC
Ethilia wrote:
Tahna Rouspel wrote:
Wyke Mossari wrote:
...


The big difference comes from the updated value of PI products. Before the patch, tax was a mere 0.1% of the value or close enough, now it's actually a 10% of the market value.

The Interbus CO in my wormhole has tax set at 17%. Before patch, I was paying 200,000 isk per day, now the number will be closer to 5,000,000 isk per day. That's about 30% of my PI profit.

Can you list the pre and post patch tax rates per m3? I can't seem to find a reliable source.



I can't find the old values, but I can tell you they were rather insignificant.

Here are the new values taken from the updated wiki;

Taxation

Tax % is taken off the material's taxable value.
This value is set by CCP and is based off the market values in November 2011
Import is always half of export tax
The taxable value are the same for all items in the same tier
Advanced Commodities: 1,350,000.00 ISK
Specialized Commodities: 70,000.00 ISK
Refined Commodities: 9,000.00 ISK
Basic commodities: 500.00 ISK
Planet Resources: 5,00 ISK
Custom tax rates can be set based on corp to corp standings, as well as for alliance members or corp members.

The tax is taken from that value. So Quantity * Product Value * Tax rate

Import tax are about 2/3 of the export tax.
This has a big impact for extraction planets. You pay tax to export the P1, then you pay tax to import the P1 to the manufacturing planet, then you pay taxes to export the P2 to space.

I miscalculated my daily tax; it's actually closer to 50% of my total sell value per day; 8 mil off 15 mil.
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#15 - 2011-11-29 23:07:13 UTC

The old values are still in my spread sheet, look in the tier tab.
Ethilia
Freelance Excavation and Resistance
#16 - 2011-11-29 23:18:44 UTC
Lets do some maths:


1000 coolant/mech/EU @ 10k pu

Sell value = 10m
Tax:
P1 export = 680k
P1 import = 340k
P2 export = 1.53m
Total tax = 2.55m
Total tax rate = 25.5%

P1 export maths: 85.00 (tax pu) * 1000 (P2 total) * 40/5 (P1/P2 ratio) = 680k
P1 import maths: 42.5 (tax) * 1000 (P2 total) * 40/5 (P1/P2 ratio) = 340k
P2 export maths: 1,530 (tax) * 1000 (P2 total) = 1.53m

* I only include importing 1 type of P1 and assume the manufacturing planet is producing the other P1. (Oops, I accidentilly my secrets OopsAttention)


I think the P4 export tax is actually 135,000 and not 1,350,000.
Tahna Rouspel
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2011-11-29 23:27:05 UTC
From all of this, I would definitely expect an increase of the operating cost of POS. It's difficult to say how much that value will be, but I expect 50% increase easily if not more given the increase in PI costs.

It will take some time for markets to stabilize.
Cygnet Lythanea
World Welfare Works Association
#18 - 2011-11-29 23:47:47 UTC
The problem is, given the increase in POS costs, there are likely to be wide ranging repercussions throughout the market. This effectively eliminates new player participation in PI and heavily curtails high and low sec POS operations due to the difficulty in defending POCO units, as they're both easily destroyed by battleships and are unarmed.
EvilCheez
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#19 - 2011-11-30 00:55:54 UTC
Cygnet Lythanea wrote:
The problem is, given the increase in POS costs, there are likely to be wide ranging repercussions throughout the market. This effectively eliminates new player participation in PI and heavily curtails high and low sec POS operations due to the difficulty in defending POCO units, as they're both easily destroyed by battleships and are unarmed.



It does not curtail new player participation in pi. It curtails SOLO player participation.

CCP does not want you to play with yourself !!!

(and yes I am currently in a one man corp but my alt is in rvb so back off)
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#20 - 2011-11-30 01:03:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Scrapyard Bob
The tariffs will have zero effect on a new player doing PI. Generally, new players start with P1 harvest worlds where they have little if any ongoing costs and they'll now just need to pay attention to making sure they sell their P1 output for more then the export tariff. For the stuff like Chiral Structures (which were selling for about 680 ISK/u), they'll just need to raise their sell price to 730-750 ISK/u and they'll make the same amount of ISK that they did the day before.

For the higher tier goods - nothing much changes. You need to monitor your input costs and include import/export fees in your profit calculations, then make sure that you sell the output for a profitable price. If the end-user market is not willing to pay that profitable price point, then change your factory world to produce something else that is profitable.

Even with the new tariffs - a lot of P2s are still worth making in a P1->P2 factory world. Other P2s will have to go up in price, unless the P1 inputs get a good bit cheaper. At least half of the P3s are still profitable even with the higher import/export tariffs. Making P4 has always been risky and remains so.

For P3 - you will need to consider whether it's more profitable to buy and import P2, or switch to a P1->P3 style factory world in order to purchase the less expensive P1 inputs. Same choice with P4 production - do you buy and import P3, or do you attempt to build from P2?

The major hurdle that new players face is if they attempt to do PI in lo-sec, without being friendly with the corp that controls the area. Lo-sec PI definitely got a lot riskier.
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