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A Constant Change

Author
Cyris Maleus
Symptom Industries
#1 - 2014-03-11 02:18:25 UTC
For those of us who have been playing for years we all remember when PLEX was sitting at 259 mil roughly but by todays standards PLEX sits at around 658 mil. Now everyone understands that basic growth and inflation drives prices up but PLEX seems to never drop at all.

So my question is; Why the constant rise in price of PLEX? Just last week or so it was at 618 mil and now it is 40 mil more. An impressive jump if you ask me. But what are your theories or reasoning?
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#2 - 2014-03-11 03:03:38 UTC
Long term: It's a sign that too much ISK enters the economy of the game, and too little is destroyed.

Short term: PLEX fluctuate with CCP sales, the day of the week (people get paid IRL on Wed and Thurs more than any other days), and multiples of 30 days since the introduction of dual training spike demand slightly.

PLEX do not constantly rise. IIRC they were ~670m for a short period.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Lors Dornick
Kallisti Industries
#3 - 2014-03-11 05:16:36 UTC
Cyris Maleus wrote:


So my question is; Why the constant rise in price of PLEX? Just last week or so it was at 618 mil and now it is 40 mil more. An impressive jump if you ask me. But what are your theories or reasoning?

A qualified guess is that more people are making more isk in Eve, which makes more people willing to pay more for PLEX and less people needing to use cash.

Since every PLEX on the market is paid for by someone the actual cost/value of it will be a question of balance between how hard is to get isk and painful it is to part with RL cash.

CCP Greyscale: As to starbases, we agree it's pretty terrible, but we don't want to delay the entire release just for this one factor.

Myriad Blaze
Common Sense Ltd
Nulli Secunda
#4 - 2014-03-11 09:21:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Myriad Blaze
Also there is (or was) a certain cycle in PLEX pricing that gave reason to assume that PLEX prices would crash mid to end February. If enough people planned to PLEX their accounts accordingly they are forced to buy now regardless of the price (or resub using real money) and thus increase demand.

EDIT:
And lets not forget RMTers. It seems PLEX are a preferred method to make veiled ISK transfers (i.e. transfer the PLEX to a quiet hisec system, load it into a noobship, meet with your client at a safespot and fire at him with your civilan weapon, wait for Concord and hope the PLEX drop as loot).
Cavalira
Habemus
#5 - 2014-03-11 12:37:35 UTC
More people get older accounts, richer, and can therefore afford the plexes. There hasn't been enough new accounts to help fund these plex.
Alyssa Wyatt
Bazinga Labs
#6 - 2014-03-12 12:09:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Alyssa Wyatt
As already stated, the issue is, there is simply to much ISK in the game
The ISK sinks simply aren't large enough

And of course, CCP's 'PLEX for everything' direction isn't helping either I suppose
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#7 - 2014-03-12 12:37:23 UTC
Alyssa Wyatt wrote:
CCP's 'PLEX for everything' direction isn't helping either I suppose

I like the 'PLEX for everything' direction.

I've been really impressed by the charity drives.

I was pleased to be able to buy HD streams and fanfest tickets with PLEX.

I would happily buy all manner of EVE branded merchandise with PLEX if it was available. I'm dissapointed that more of their existing affiliate products aren't available for PLEX.

People can complain that PLEX is currently very expensive, but when I compare it to the earnings potential of even fairly new pilots in today's EVE, I think the price is very reasonable. The problem is really that you've had it too good for too long.

Erotica 1
Krypteia Operations
#8 - 2014-03-12 13:27:30 UTC
I'm just waiting for CCP to sell houses, cars, and boats for PLEX.

See Bio for isk doubling rules. If you didn't read bio, chances are you funded those who did.

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#9 - 2014-03-12 13:37:04 UTC
Cyris Maleus wrote:
For those of us who have been playing for years we all remember when PLEX was sitting at 259 mil roughly but by todays standards PLEX sits at around 658 mil. Now everyone understands that basic growth and inflation drives prices up but PLEX seems to never drop at all.

So my question is; Why the constant rise in price of PLEX? Just last week or so it was at 618 mil and now it is 40 mil more. An impressive jump if you ask me. But what are your theories or reasoning?
The main reason for the current spike will be fanfest, as tickets can be bought for plex.

There are many reasons they keep going up though. More can be done with plex, increasing demand, which increase price. But on the other side, people tend to buy less plex if the price starts to drop. Years ago you'd buy a plex to sell in game for 300m. But imagine if the price dropped back down now to 600m. Many people who would have bought one and sold it for 658m will now see that as a losing purchase, so less get bought, supply drops and the price rises. Once plex price peaks to, lets say 800m as an example, some people will see 750m for a plex and think that's not worth it, even though right now, 658m is good. Conversely, not many people are just waiting for the price to reach a certain level before they will invest real cash, meaning you don't see the opposite effect from price rises.

The short of it is that it will be hard for the plex price to substantially drop without people decreasing the supply to a point that it will go back up, but it's easy for the plex price to rise though increased uses.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Samroski
Middle-Earth
#10 - 2014-03-12 15:13:01 UTC
This thread, where everyone speculates on PLEX inflation, is always worth a read/good laugh :)

My 2 cents: getting large amounts of money for selling PLEXes motivates more people to buy them. Thus it is in CCP's interest that prices stay high.

So does CCP actually interfere in the PLEX market? I do not think there is much direct manipulation, though many of the strategies noted above may be considered as indirect manipulation.

Any colour you like.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#11 - 2014-03-12 15:37:41 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Alyssa Wyatt wrote:
CCP's 'PLEX for everything' direction isn't helping either I suppose

I like the 'PLEX for everything' direction.

I've been really impressed by the charity drives.

I was pleased to be able to buy HD streams and fanfest tickets with PLEX.

I would happily buy all manner of EVE branded merchandise with PLEX if it was available. I'm dissapointed that more of their existing affiliate products aren't available for PLEX.

People can complain that PLEX is currently very expensive, but when I compare it to the earnings potential of even fairly new pilots in today's EVE, I think the price is very reasonable. The problem is really that you've had it too good for too long.



I wish I could go out at the supermarket and buy F4P (Food For Plex).

That'd be epic!
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#12 - 2014-03-12 15:45:36 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I wish I could go out at the supermarket and buy F4P (Food For Plex).

That'd be epic!

PLEX for Beer, surely?
Alyssa Wyatt
Bazinga Labs
#13 - 2014-03-12 16:15:06 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Alyssa Wyatt wrote:
CCP's 'PLEX for everything' direction isn't helping either I suppose

I like the 'PLEX for everything' direction.

I've been really impressed by the charity drives.

I was pleased to be able to buy HD streams and fanfest tickets with PLEX.

I would happily buy all manner of EVE branded merchandise with PLEX if it was available. I'm dissapointed that more of their existing affiliate products aren't available for PLEX.

People can complain that PLEX is currently very expensive, but when I compare it to the earnings potential of even fairly new pilots in today's EVE, I think the price is very reasonable. The problem is really that you've had it too good for too long.



Not saying if it's good or bad, but it is definitely creating more demand which leads to higher prices

Ofc, it is literary CCPs form of microtransactions now, which means CCP will look at nickle and diming it as much as they can get away it (and tbf, it's their right to, it's just down to us how much of it we're happy to pay for)
It just has an advantage of allowing those of us with vast reserves of ISK to get that same stuff without ever spending RL money on those transactions, which increases the acceptance of it all
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#14 - 2014-03-12 22:44:36 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I wish I could go out at the supermarket and buy F4P (Food For Plex).

That'd be epic!

PLEX for Beer, surely?



As much as that would be awesome, the tax implications would be worrying.

Don't games with digital objects that do not prohibit RMT (I'm thinking of Magic The Gathering Online here) have to send American players an IRS notification if they hit certain levels of prizes? In EVE, that would be even harder to track.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Cyris Maleus
Symptom Industries
#15 - 2014-03-13 03:08:42 UTC
I am not saying that CCP affects the market directly, I am just simply curious as to what people think about the rise in PLEX price.

i agree. There is a lot of ISK floating in EVE and not enough destruction. Who knows if a Hulkaggedon or high sec attacks begin because usually there is such a thing. But we all know the CFC and PL had their massive fight and word has spread that prices of minerals would boost due to such a huge loss but after watching the market, not much of a spike or am I not paying "enough attention?" lol
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#16 - 2014-03-13 03:18:05 UTC
Cyris Maleus wrote:
I am not saying that CCP affects the market directly, I am just simply curious as to what people think about the rise in PLEX price.

i agree. There is a lot of ISK floating in EVE and not enough destruction. Who knows if a Hulkaggedon or high sec attacks begin because usually there is such a thing. But we all know the CFC and PL had their massive fight and word has spread that prices of minerals would boost due to such a huge loss but after watching the market, not much of a spike or am I not paying "enough attention?" lol


There was only a quarter trillion units of tritanium destroyed in that fight, which isn't enough to change the economy. It did spike it for a while. The economy is still reacting to the nullsec mineral rebalance too.

What DID change the economy was when the Tiericide of battleships was announced, and a very large number of people started building ridiculous amounts of battleships. If two million battleships were stockpiled, that's something like ten trillion units of Trit, almost all of which was additional demand.


CCP have only intervened in the PLEX market once (via selling PLEX from permabanned accounts on the market to slow a price spike), and their stated goal was 'to keep prices from changing too rapidly'. I would not worry about CCP intervention.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Setsune Rin
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2014-03-13 08:11:44 UTC
well fanfest is coming up, looking forward to the economy panel

maybe dr whateverhisnameis will be able to tell us.
Claire Voyant
#18 - 2014-03-13 11:18:17 UTC
If it was just too much isk, the price of everything would be going up. The problem is that there is too much isk AND too much stuff. There are enough ways in Eve to earn a living that the balance of isk to stuff does not get too far out of whack. If isk is scarce, ratting or running missions will be more lucrative. If isk is plentiful, mining or other harvesting activities become more profitable.

The PLEX price measures the real world value of everything in Eve. Not only what isk is worth in dollars, but what that isk will buy you in Eve. Because of mudflation, the long-term trend in PLEX prices will always be up. However, there are short-term supply and demand effects such as idiots buying up PLEX to paint all their ships Roll or increased supply from people with too much real life cash to burn on a silly game.

tl;dr: Buy PLEX on the next dip. I know I will.