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Plex price manipulation, plex up 20 million in less than 24 hours.

First post
Author
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#121 - 2014-03-12 13:48:11 UTC
Bael Malefic wrote:
If that is indeed the case, and switching all accounts to paid subscriptions would in fact reduce the revenue stream by 30%, then perhaps the current model is the best one possible for the time being. In that case I'd simply wonder how to sell more PLEX and hope the pubbies keep buying them.
See, that's the thing with your problem formulation: you assume that there are only two opposing extremist views. Either everyone would pay a sub (never mind that removing the PLEX option would in many cases mean that those people would stop playing and that a PLEXed account earns CCP more money than a subscribed account) or everyone would trend towards solely using PLEX (never mind that many people would rather stab themselves in the throat than do any kind of monthly grind).

In reality, we have a situation where some people prefer it one way and some people prefer it another (and some do both or even a fourth variation). PLEX lets CCP serve all those needs and keep everyone happy on top of offering a partial solution to the RMT plague.

Quote:
Sometimes I forget that these forums are actually all about flames/trolls. I shall refrain from trying to make any constructive comments in future and stick to snarky comments aimed at other posters. After all, this is EVE.
Who's been flaming and trolling? The reason people aren't buying your idea is because it has shown to be somewhat detached from the realities of how people actually behave and of how CCP makes money.
Bael Malefic
Doomheim
#122 - 2014-03-12 13:56:33 UTC
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
I get what some people are trying to say, the existance of PLEX does front-load the system, since people paying money for PLEX are going to be the same people paying for a subscription (because I like to think no-one would be dumb enough to buy PLEX for money, then use them for their sub), while the people buying PLEX for isk to sub their game, aren't going to be buying them for money too.

So in effect, half the players are paying for all the subscriptions, making the game less resistant to a sudden outflux of players (since people playing for free have no reason to stop their subs if temporarily unhappy with the game, so any outflux is going to be in the paying half, and cause double the hit). That said, since a PLEX bought today doesn't have to be used on a sub for months or even years in the future, CCP is getting their hands on a large chunk of sub-money early, and assuming they treat it as that (and don't just spend it as "free money"), the price and abundance/scarcity of PLEX on the market can give an early-warning system to CCP that something is amiss. If people stop buying PLEX, CCP can react before the supply dries up, using these "early paid subs" as a safety net to buy them time to correct whatever caused the outflux.


That might be spot on.

So maybe a better framed question:

How does CCP keep that RL-money paying group of players attached to the game and keep them buying PLEX? Especially as PLEX scarcity would indeed be a big red warning light that something was amiss?

And is the current spike in PLEX price a big red warning light or a temporary fluctuation triggered by upcoming "perks?"

I admit I might be "somewhat detached" from how people behave related to this game. I am not an expert on all things EVE and never will be.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#123 - 2014-03-12 14:07:41 UTC
Bael Malefic wrote:
How does CCP keep that RL-money paying group of players attached to the game and keep them buying PLEX?
The same way the keep everyone else attached to the game, presumably: by providing and maintaining a sandbox in which they can have fun.

Quote:
And is the current spike in PLEX price a big red warning light or a temporary fluctuation triggered by upcoming "perks?"
Vast amounts of stuff have been lost recently and both old and new uses for PLEX have been (re)introduced. It's hardly surprising if the stockpiles are running a bit low.
Charlie Firpol
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#124 - 2014-03-12 14:29:59 UTC
Tippia wrote:

Quote:
And is the current spike in PLEX price a big red warning light or a temporary fluctuation triggered by upcoming "perks?"
Vast amounts of stuff have been lost recently and both old and new uses for PLEX have been (re)introduced. It's hardly surprising if the stockpiles are running a bit low.


Dont forget ship skins. Lots of speculation has been going on about that. Usually, speculation on an item before a patch makes that item more expensive, at least temporary. This time its AUR, and as such, PLEX.

The Butcher of Black Rise - eve-radio.com

Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#125 - 2014-03-12 14:30:46 UTC
While this plex price explosion is a disaster for the causal non-rich player, one way that CCP benefits is the fact that RMT sellers get hurt. If the price of a plex rises, and that is directly tied to the black market rate for RMT, then 1 billon ISK sold is not going to gain as much real cash as before.

6 months ago, 575 million ISK would net around, what, 12 bucks? (assuming a plex price ingame was around 575M in Sept)
When plexes hit a billion, that same 575 million ISK will net around 7 bucks.

But given that the null sec cartels are creating far more ISK than they could ever possibly sell, not sure how the pieces all fall together, and if their real life incomes are affected that much.

So maybe CCP is OK with the future of plex prices at some ridiculous number.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#126 - 2014-03-12 14:34:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
While this plex price explosion is a disaster for the causal non-rich player
That doesn't make much sense. The casual non-rich player would presumably be one who pays a regular subscription. After all, they're casual and non-rich and thus aren't the type to grind tons of ISK every month.

Quote:
But given that the null sec cartels are creating far more ISK than they could ever possibly sell, not sure how the pieces all fall together, and if their real life incomes are affected that much.
Do you have anything to actually support any of this nonsense?
cynobutt
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#127 - 2014-03-12 14:48:28 UTC
Plex are too cheap as it is. When they hit a billion its still only 33 mill per day to plex an account and that can be done easily just from bounties of most level 4 missions.
Aralyn Cormallen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#128 - 2014-03-12 15:11:56 UTC
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
While this plex price explosion is a disaster for the causal non-rich player,


Actually, its more the middle-class getting hit, the players who are rich enough (currently) to PLEX an account, as they now have to work harder for the same "income". Isk-poor players are the ones more likely to be selling PLEX occasionally to make up their wallets, so will actually be getting more isk for their pound/dollar/ruble, so its party-time for them.
Lilianna Star
Vagrant Empress
#129 - 2014-03-12 15:51:03 UTC
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
While this plex price explosion is a disaster for the causal non-rich player,


Actually, its more the middle-class getting hit, the players who are rich enough (currently) to PLEX an account, as they now have to work harder for the same "income". Isk-poor players are the ones more likely to be selling PLEX occasionally to make up their wallets, so will actually be getting more isk for their pound/dollar/ruble, so its party-time for them.


As someone who has a lot more money than time, it is indeed party time.
Harry Forever
SpaceJunkys
#130 - 2014-03-12 16:41:17 UTC
Knights Armament wrote:
What the hell is going on.


20 million... wow
Bael Malefic
Doomheim
#131 - 2014-03-12 18:41:09 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
Knights Armament wrote:
What the hell is going on.


20 million... wow


Up and up and up it goes...checking in Eve Central today has been a bit of an eye-popping experience.
Yuri Fedorov
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#132 - 2014-03-12 21:02:58 UTC
Watching the prices lately has convinced me to buy a month or 2. I can't spend 700m isk per plex every month, that's just crazy.

Hoping for a plex sale by the end of the month now.
Tekniq
Bionic Systems
#133 - 2014-03-12 21:38:36 UTC
how about pay for the game with real money - for real working people?

I hope plex prices go over 1 billion..
Baron Chauman
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#134 - 2014-03-12 21:49:30 UTC
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
Actually, its more the middle-class getting hit, the players who are rich enough (currently) to PLEX an account, as they now have to work harder for the same "income".


True, and they are the ones more likely to quit because of spikes like these, especially if they grind for a new plex every month, living on the edge, rather than have 100b in their wallet constantly. This isn't too uncommon (even in null as opposed to what some seem to believe).
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#135 - 2014-03-12 22:15:47 UTC
Bael Malefic wrote:
Malcanis wrote:


Your plan improve stability by reducing CCP's revenue by about 30% is interesting. Can you explain how definitely earning $700 per month is better than earning ~$950-$1050 per month?


I don't know what the proportion of CCP revenue derived from PLEX sales is vs. paid subscriptions or what the revenue impact would be of switching PLEX over to subs.

If that is indeed the case, and switching all accounts to paid subscriptions would in fact reduce the revenue stream by 30%, then perhaps the current model is the best one possible for the time being. In that case I'd simply wonder how to sell more PLEX and hope the pubbies keep buying them.

Sometimes I forget that these forums are actually all about flames/trolls. I shall refrain from trying to make any constructive comments in future and stick to snarky comments aimed at other posters. After all, this is EVE.


It seems a pity that your well meant business advise, based on your admitted lack of knowledge, isn't taken more seriously.

CCP will be sorry

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Hasikan Miallok
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#136 - 2014-03-12 22:51:04 UTC
meh ... bull market ... speculation ... no actual significant increase in demand for PLEX ... it will settle

though much like overpriced real estate, once prices get out of kilter they rarely adjust downwards, the market just stagnates
Barbara Nichole
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#137 - 2014-03-12 23:33:50 UTC
Knights Armament wrote:
Icarus Able wrote:
Its more expensive on weekends because more people are online?

Possibly, but someone is buying up most of the plex and relisting, driving prices up. I thought CCP flooded the market with plex to prevent this type of behavior? What is to stop large alliances from using their vast income to buy up all the plex?

They have not printed new PLEX to do this.. In the past, they used a pool of existing in game PLEX that had been taken from banned accounts. For the record there are other steps they could take other than flooding the market with PLEX.

  - remove the cloaked from local; free intel is the real problem, not  "afk" cloaking -

[IMG]http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a208/DawnFrostbringer/consultsig.jpg[/IMG]

Mr LaboratoryRat
Confederation of DuckTape Lovers
#138 - 2014-03-12 23:40:02 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Player market controls price of PLEX ingame. No need for external regulation.

Since all PLEXs are introduced into the game by someone paying IRL money in some form, that part is externally regulated by CCPs pricing, and CCP doesnt need to worry about the ingame price of PLEX interms of their revenue from players maintaining account time.

I agree a rise in PLEX value ingame is to be expected in anticipation of the ship paintjobs.
This because PLEX is the ingame item convertible to AUR.

So there is a connection between the demand on AUR items and PLEX.

Again, there is no need for external regulation on this, because PLEX as the ingame item convertible to AUR, is only introduced into the game by someone somewhere buying ine with IRL money.

AUR, however, can also be purchased from CCP directly out of game.
So if it should happen that demand for AUR items raises so high that it raises PLEX to an unsustainable level (ie: where people are paying so much ISK for PLEX to either maintain gametime or purchase AUR, people will start buying the AUR directly from CCP instead, and the PLEX will devalue eventually to a point where it is more inline with peoples capacity to generate ISK for purposes of maintaining gametime.

So no need to worry, and no need for internal regulation. PLEX price ingame is player controlled. If rising PLEX prices make it harder for people to maintain their account time, that is simply because other playersmaremcharging more, and they will simply have to adapt either by playing harder or more profitably, or obtaining gametime by out of game means. Noteably, another factor is that the higher the value of PLEX ingame is, the more lucrative it is for people to buy PLEX from CCP and sell ingame, which again will serve to reduce PLEX price as supply increases.

TLDR: The more demand there is for AUR items, the higher PLEX price will rise (especially at this point where buying AUR from CCP is (to my perception atleast) still quite uncommon. The existing pool of PLEX ingame, will also drop, owing to people converting them into AUR now, as well as using them for account maintenance, which was the only primary PLEX sink at this point. So even as demand for PLEX increases (to convert into AUR) that also means a direct reduction in PLEX supply, which further increases the foreseeable price of PLEX in ISK.

The proposed current AUR price for paintjobs, is quite low. So low, infact, that converting a PLEX will get you more AUR than what most people even really have use for in terms of just buying the paintjobs. So though AUR items will drain some PLEX, its not likelyto be all that many in the long run.

Make no mistake though, PLEX prices will certainly spike noticeably as we get closer to an actual release of the AUR paintjobs.
I have no doubt that many speculative players can see this eventuality, and are either ensuring they get the PLEZ they need for upcoming months, now, before that happens (therefore driving price up now) but also those whonanticipate being able to sell PLEX in that spike period for substantial profit.

No cause for panic. Everything is as it should be.


You type like a dev, are you a dev?

btw we all know the "free market" is a illusion only believed by optimist. I am on the other hand a realist and find the plex developments over the year, from introduction to now, very interesting and quationable....
Barbara Nichole
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#139 - 2014-03-12 23:49:40 UTC
Knights Armament wrote:
What the hell is going on.

I'm not seeing it. I see a 10 million increase in 24 hours... and though that is a spike, it's not the largest spike that has ever happened.

  - remove the cloaked from local; free intel is the real problem, not  "afk" cloaking -

[IMG]http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a208/DawnFrostbringer/consultsig.jpg[/IMG]

Hasikan Miallok
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#140 - 2014-03-12 23:57:45 UTC
Barbara Nichole wrote:
Knights Armament wrote:
What the hell is going on.

I'm not seeing it. I see a 10 million increase in 24 hours... and though that is a spike, it's not the largest spike that has ever happened.


30 mill in 2.5 days