Market Discussions

With the announced changes to the PI and player owned customs offices being confirmed by CCP will this mean the value of existing PI products go up overall due to higher taxes to combine low end PI into higher end products?
Will the changes mean less people doing PI and this drive up the prices too?
Should I buy now before the prices rise or wait abit till they fall off from the pre-announcement speculation and then buy just before the launch date?
Or should I just stay away from it as its likely to go down as masses of people release there massive stores in hope of a profit and the market crashes?

If the prices will go up has anyone crunched the numbers and seen by how much the new tax rates will affect the prices or even how much the anticipated changes affect the market?

I expect to see all PI-sourced goods go up a solid 30% after launch and stay at least 20-25% above historical norms due to decreased supply (due to it being far more difficult to farm PI goods in lo-sec now).

Depending on where the tariff rates end up in hi-sec, will determine just how much prices will jump on top of that. Right now, tariff amounts for P1/P2 are miniscule (under 0.5% of market value) and have little effect on pricing. P3 pays a bit more (in the 2-5% range, and P4 pays about 5-10% effective tax rate right now). But the tariff amounts on Sisi are still extremely screwed up, so nobody knows exactly where CCP is going to set the number.

To slow we know about it from some time. Byt was meh when CCP anounced that 0.0 and low CO will be still there till someone destroy it. Hope that some alliances will purge them...

Player owned vs Player needed...

Just because a player can own one and deploy it, and charge tax doesn't mean a player needs it.

Some food for thought..
Pirate Corps/Alliances in low/null sec are probably not going to go around blow these things up. Well they will at first, but there is more ISK if they themselves deploy the thing..

Lets say my corp holds a low-sec system, we gate camp, we pirate and loot the system etc.
It's in our corps best interest to own all the customs offices in the system. So we kill everyone that doesn't belong to us, and deploy our own. This will likely be the case in most low/null-sec systems, only those contested will be different. Those in established systems will not. That said, in all likely hood they'll charge the full 100% export tax.

WH systems I predict will be similar, they'll all have customs offices but they'll be owned by the system holder etc. I think the office themselves will be in a BIG demand at the start, then level off and almost be non-existent sales unless there is a big power shift.

If 5% tax in the new system is what we're paying right now, I predict the export taxes will be about 20x higher, which will raise the cost of the item about 10-30% depending on the item.

The small problem is, once the price increase takes hold, the question becomes.. where is the price break. When does volume of goods become less profitable per unit, then taking a smaller amount but not paying exorbitant export tax.. People are not stupid, if I'm making 10 ISK a unit in highsec for 100 units after taxes, and people in low/null-sec are making 7 ISK a unit for 140 units after taxes, guess who is profiting more..

I had already heard something along these lines from alliance members so this is why I thought prices might go up significantly if goons do to PI what there doing to Isotopes.
I heard figures of more than 20% rises accross the board so I have decided to invest now while the prices are low still.
Even if they only rise a bit it will be like keeping up with inflation haha.
Thanks for all the helpful replys guys.

gonna be a gigantic flop on release and don't expect a lasting spike, details here:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=33468&find=unread

Thats my point. With no reinforcement timers LS NPC customs offices are suseptable to being popped by roaming griefers which will pop them just to get people to fight or to drive the prices up considerably. I think that people who dont think prices wil change by much are in for a very rude awakening. Im gonna sink 50 bil or so as a 6-9 month investment I think.
There are also products that can only be made with 1 or 2 types of extractor and these coincidently are also in the group of planets that there are fewest of in highsec/lowsec. Once lowsec PI gets cut down by 75% the only realistic place for them to be sourced is highsec as I cant see people jump freightering low end PI to Jita. I think there are still quite a few under valued products that will go through a re valueation once the dust settles.

Possibly final import/export tariff numbers are on Sisi. Looks like they took the average market value of all of the PI goods in a particular tier and divided by 10 to get the export tariff (with a bit of rounding off).

Market impact will mean that instead of tariff fees being a minor issue for P1/P2, you're going to have to include those in your calculations. For P1, the low-priced P1s are going to immediately have to go up 30-60 ISK/u (import tariff is 25, export is 50). The higher priced P1s will probably only go up a flat 50 ISK/u.

This will trickle down through the layers, probably boosting prices about 10% per layer (so 20% higher prices for P2, 30% higher for P3, 40% higher for P4).

Smart producers will attempt to do setups where you buy as low on the tier as possible and turn it into the final product, skipping as many import/export steps as possible. Such as a P1->P3 factory world instead of doing separate P1->P2, moving product, then doing P2->P3 on another planet.

Or put up your own and never pay tax at all (collect from others if you want) until somebody shoots down your POCO (just for kicks or to put up their own).

0.0 Alliances will build them on their own and will hardly advertise the fact.
They aren't needed in high sec.

So that leaves low sec. Sure, anyone can make a corp to build and manage POCO's in lowsec...but can you defend them in lowsec? Probably not.

I see all the low sec POCO's getting knocked down in short order and no one feeling interested in investing the ISK/Time to install/protect new ones. So PI moves to high sec or null sec.

The only place it would make any kind of sense at all to run a POCO business is in high sec, where someone would have to wardec you to take out the POCO's. However high sec POCO's are all being assigned to concord instead of being replaced by player owned/operated structures.

In Lowsec, any bored group of pirates / FWers / 0.0 roamers can and will blow your stuff up in short order.

POCO's in low sec are very vulnerable structures that take a LONG TIME to earn back their initial investment, let alone all the time/isk you spend defending them after that (if you are even able to).