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TY VV!!

Zydrine analysis

Posted on my website at first, as per the input coming from another thread.



Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

Price reached an all time low, hit support and rebound up. Price re-entered above the monthly level 756.43. If this will stay true till the end of the month, then price will have confirmed a bullish move. In that case, the level will become a support and price will try and reach the next monthly level, 844.10.

Chart link.


Weekly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

Unlike the monthly bar, the weekly bar has closed already. It closed above the monthly level by a small margin. Why “small margin”? Look at the big upper tail (in the circle), it’s due to some number of sell orders being triggered at the tip of the bar. Guess what could cause such effect? A resistance level I did not draw. Which resistance level? The eye does not take long to see the tip “suspiciously” hit BRN 800. We’ll see more of that effect on the daily chart.

Another peculiarity is the big bearish channel that is enclosing price between those two red trend lines. If price will go hit the one at the top, then it will react to it. I have drawn small arrows showing what bars determined the monthly level right above price.

Chart link.


Daily chart

Where Price is Going (WPG)

The daily chart shows some interactions between price and other market structures. At first price slowly went down, supported by the lower red trend line. Look at the lots of small arrows showing how price reacted every time it hit the trend line. That’s the definition of (dynamic) support at its finest.

Then price described a range market (RM), in blue and recently broke it upwards. Arrows show the contact points. A problem with price beaking so hard is that it enters a so called “hyperbolic phase”, that is, it rises a lot but with no real solid foundations. This is typical of bubbles. Big rise with no foundation and then a crash. Therefore unless you are in the market already, it’s very, very dangerous to enter at the current price. It’d be better to wait for the monthly bar to close and see if it closed above the 756.43 monthly level.

Price trend frailty immediately got shown as it hit BRN 800. Price had not formed any swing to gain energy and thus it easily got beaten by sellers into submission. However after being pushed down, it still closed above the monthly level. Since it’s close to the BRN, price will tend to bounce between the two, forming “battle bars”, like dojis, spinning tops and similar. This means, entering here is not advisable. Assuming price will go up there, the next relatively safe place where to buy (after price putting a confirmation too) is above the swing connected by a grey line. It will also get rid of the upper trend line at the same time. It will still be well worse than having bought at the blue RM though.


Chart link.

In regards to this chart:

ZYDRN

Why is it not advisable to enter now at the current price? Will there not be enough support to continue its bull? I mean, can you go into more detail as to why you believe the upward momentum can't continue?

Love the thread though +sub'd

Cold birds are chirping!

Nov 6, 2013.

It's a long while I don't post, and for a reason.

My interest in EvE has dipped since I have basically "won the game" and can get any amount of ISK I want just by repeating the same thing.
It sounds so good until it becomes true and then you suddenly don't have new (financial) goals ahead to aspire to.

I know I could "diversify" on other goals but this is a topic for another thread.


What's relevant to this thread instead is:

- Now that I have proved to myself that RL finance and EvE are similar and thus the experiment can be classified as successful, I have made another, "unconventional" move.

What if I could copy to RL another EvE concept? That is, what if I could do like in EvE, that is setup a network of AFK activities that bring in periodic money with nearly no effort?

That's what I am doing right now in RL. I have started some initiatives that lead to recurring subscription based services about stuff I only have to update every now and then.

So far I am making about 200 euros a month with it, pure passive income that gets in even if I do nothing at all.

I am looking forward to expand it past this first attempt and then achieve a life that does not depend on any active effort, where I can focus on my studies, hobbies and ... other pleasant activities.

Is it a dream? Is EvE <> RL? So far it looks like it isn't.
The coming years will prove me right or wrong, but it's worth trying.

EvE is too much of a grand humanity social experiment to not take the challenge.

Imagine that, an internet guy who makes a living out of what he learned in a game, with no effort involved.

That's pretty cool, but unfortunately I will never be able to get the image out of my head of you getting-off to hands-free Eve market chart-p0rn.

Updated PLEX market analysis

I have posted an updated PLEX market analysis.
While price is not telling anything new, looking at the current scenario may give some insights about what's going to happen next or how to be in a profitable position when the next moves will happen.

There's some "real pin gar" theory explained as well. In fact, not all the pin bars are "good stuff". Only good ones are:

- those that sit on top of an important level / range market level (such as its support or resistance).

- they also have to be in an appropriate location: bullish pin bars must sit at the bottom of higher low swings (that is, small "valleys") while bearish pin bars must sit at the top of lower high swings (that is, small "price peaks / roofs").


Finally: for the "less than believers": that diagonal bullish trend line is now years old. I have drawn it... I don't even recall how long ago. Still convinced that levels (dynamic in this case) don't exist?

You actually made some very clever questions that give me the opportunity to talk about some practical stuff that usually does not get written.

First the direct answer: here's a May 2012 analysis showing that trend line. There *was* also a March 2013 analysis as testifyed by this post on this thread. Sadly, as some might still recall (and perhaps find in Google's cache) that link points to my website's forums, which died a terrible death and could not be recovered even with a backup. So I lost dozens of analyses (including a lot of RL ones) in one hit .
Here are the pictures I had saved from that analysis: Monthly, Weekly 1, Weekly 2 and Daily chart.

Expecially take note of the purple level found in Weekly 2 as it'll be covered in the following text.

Plus there are "less public" or just less known charts like this one which were made for clients or research (in that screenshot, testing other trading platforms). Does not change the fact I studied them, so they stick to my memory.



The deviations you can see on trend lines come from 2 main sources:

1) The change of scale
2) The amount of available points.

1) Is one of the main reason traders do the possible to only trade horizontal lines. Changing time frame but also just changing zoom causes visible differences even when dealing with identical data.

To see this in action, download a free copy of Metratrader 4 and install it. Now find a diagonal line anywhere and look at it by changing time frame and / or zoom. What you'll see is utterly blatant, possibly more than on the charts you have seen.
Traders learn to deal with it over time and to move the trend line(s) when they switch time frame so that they follow the bars tops (bottoms).
I *don't* always move the trend lines as I could forget to put them back in place on the monthly time frame for the next round of analyses and this will cause (even visible) discrepancies.

2) In the beginning I had all of 2 points to base an estimate upon. As more get added, the line finds more confirmation and precision. It's still the same line talking the same price story though. The fact it may change by some degrees (in addition to the above) is meaningless, as it's what price "says" that matters: that a sequence of swings are orderly following each other in a ramp.


3) BRNs are never a 100% exact thing, as you know, they are defined by humans not robots. Whereas in RL markets we have many more traders and the average of their orders comes closer to the BRN (see a BRN as a Gaussian of orders spread around it) than in EvE. Actually the delta between a "perfect BRN" and a "near miss" is useful to understand more advanced stuff like i.e. the market sentiment, but that's really too much to discuss to cover it here.

You noticed I have drawn a purple level exactly where you say price hit. That purple level was put there for a reason. That's the top of a swing.

It's the same concept of trend lines: the "story" price talks is that it went up to a BRN. That's the "quick fact check".
Then when you want to actually do a trade you have to have precision and draw the purple line because that's where price really went, despite the "story" says price reacted to a BRN.

Another factor, a MOST important factor: look at the weekly chart. The purple level and the BRN have been pivotal in this market. The previous swing hits the purple line and took liquidity from the BRN (see the bars' "tails"). Then price closes above the BRN and the BRN became support and the purple line became it's liquidity source.

This process is called "flip" and is one of those that MUST immediately pop to the trader's eye.
The "liquidity" instead is part of a concept that often happens in the markets, to the point there's been written a little "rule": "liquidity levels become effective levels and effective levels become liquidity" as it's fairly frequent to see such kind of "swapping" between the levels roles like that.

A liquidity level is where the large blocking orders sit. It's usually a bit shifted from BRNs because those orders are usually not put at an exact BRN but put as a "barrier" near it. I.e. those 10B buy / sell orders placed on Trit or Nitrogen Isotopes (and many more) when big market operations occur.

An effective level is where a market "retraces" and where most buyers meet sellers, that is where price goes to confirm its direction. It's the famous "dip and continue" known by traders since decades.

- First of all I don't see difference between the 2012 one and the latest. I have made a "collage" and joined the two charts. Please tell me where's this HUGE trend line different angle.




We are apparently on different pages.
I wish I had such a clear and simple situation when RL trading. If you are expecting for markets to do what you want, hit a BRN by the triple decimal digit and so on, you are in for a world of hurt.

BRNs are guidelines to understand what price is doing (WPD), the only place where you even have to care about a BRN being hit is the daily (WPG). The daily bars are those that form the weekly (and in turn the monthly), and they form the liquidity on the weekly and monthly chart. So, even if you just see a bar tail hitting a BRN, it's already (more than) enough!

I have drawn a chart where I have circled where the BRN had effect on price. It's not little. In particular, the bar in a blue rectangle is a doji. Dojis are "long legged, small body" bars that delimit a range market on the lower time frames. Doji represent an hard battle around a level. Where does that doji sit? Exactly across the BRN.

Now look at the daily chart I have posted in the latest analysis. TONS of bars grab liquidity from the purple level and sit above or below the BRN. Look at the double bottom at the beginning of the year: it shows a 2 days pin bar sitting on the yellow RM support, taking liquidity from the purple level and closing above the BRN to show the buyers have won (the "close above / below are very important informations). The next 2 bars are 2 more pin bars sitting on the BRN. All these have been a safe buy opportunity.

I repeat, I really hope you'll always find such a simple BRN situation because it's actually quite rare to see one like that.

You are right for some reason I had put some 2013 pictures in the 2012 folder.
That means that *in the worst case* I "only" predicted the market for the next 8 months. That is, an achievement many economists and traders would not even dream of.

But no, it's not just that.
I am specifically "feeling" your:



Here are the rules to draw trend lines, not written by me:


Trend lines

Draw trend lines below bars in uptrend, above in downtrend.
May only adjust lines to be more horizontal, never more vertical.
Need >= 2 points.
Uptrend = from low to first time a bar fails to make an higher low.
Downtrend = from high to first time a bar fails to make a lower high.

I have just applied it. With 2 starting points plus the (both) time frame and platform zoom induced imprecision that's what you are going to get. The trend line is that one and like all things markets, it's constantly changing and evolving and all we can do is to refine it as time goes on. Adapting to market dynamics and following the rules by the book <> "change my mind".



It would be quite hard finding a place where BRNs have no effect on price, since it's the locations traders choose to put more orders in there than in the middle of nowhere.
Once again, you talk it like it's me inventing some funny exotic stuff, when I am applying well known and long time practices.