Jita Park Speakers Corner

Since you have gone to huge effort (and I do appreciate the effort) to comment, you do deserve a response.

Bottom line, I think we can throw out pretty much all of last year's results as any kind of benchmark.

A few premises to work from:
1. goons (given they represent the most evil and powerful of the cartels, I use their name to represent them all) are REALLY smart, and ruthless.
2. They want to get as many of their people as possible on the CSM. Controlling the CSM, especially as it has now been stated by other CSM members that CCP consults with them on various employees, (goons knew that, but was a revelation to me). The CSM is just another tool to control the direction of Eve.
3. The goons have a year of testing and analysis to figure best way to optimize their voting bloc's power.
4. And most importantly, the goon voting bloc is absolutely huge this year.

Last year, a total of 49702 were cast, which was down significantly from the previous year.
cfc is now in excess of 36,000 members, with goonswarm itself is now in excess of 12,000 chars.
RvB, whores of the goons now with the PoCo deal etc, not even officially part of the cfc, is 7,000
I am not even getting into the control exerted by the PL and Russian cartels, but Brothers of Tangra alone is now 5900.

A significant percentage of the votes last year were cartel controlled. I believe you are saying 40%. I may quibble with that a bit, but is as good a benchmark as any. So that means about 19,000 of last year's votes were cartel controlled.

That means also, the 60% "independent thinkers" last year equated to approx 30,000 votes.

So I will make some assumptions:
1. The 30,000 independent votes will remain static. I really don't believe that since some have been subsumed into the cartel growth the past year, plus I think a lot of them are pretty jaded given the changes this year (high sec Poco's gifted to the cartels, drone assist nerfs, Marauder nerfs, complete stagnation in null sec, etc etc), but let's assume that there are still 30,000 out there that will vote their own conscience.
2. The cartels discuss amongst themselves who they want on the CSM. Below is my list of groups that have large voting bloc power:

goons
PL
Russians
RvB
Test
loose group of FW corps/alliances
loose group of wormhole corps/alliances
E-UNI


N3 will be history by vote time. Already we see large corps that were in N3, like DTRON, being absorbed into cfc.
I was going to also suggest the Incursion groups, because I know they helped get Mike Azriah elected last year. But I don't see them as a political force this year, given the hatred amongst the groups.

PL and RvB will vote as goons tell them to vote. They both have deep financial interests in keeping goons happy.
Russians are always badly fragmented amongst themselves, but currently, they are heavily aligned with the goons. Whether that will still hold true by voting time, who knows, but rest assured, Russians will be voting to enhance null sec cartel control.
Test is a mess on an organization level, but I doubt they will vote to protect high sec casual players.
The FW group will get someone elected. They are cohesive enough to do that.
The wormhole groups are as effective as the FW groups, so they will get someone on there as well.
E-UNI is not running anyone, which is a real shame. If the UNI and the high sec incursion groups got together, they could form a bloc powerful enough to maybe get someone on.

3. All indications, so far, is that the overall interest in the election this year is down. See point #1. Very few new players will be involved in the voting as independent players, but new players in the organized voting bloc's will told to vote. That can only hope the cartels. This is pretty much how real life works as well.

4. There are way more alt accounts/ cartel player when compared to the casual player. High sec players may need an Orca or hauling account, but don't need a a supercap account, a cyno alt, spy accounts, a non supercap account etc etc. These accounts also contribute to the cartel voting power.

So, putting it all together, I see maybe 30,000 independent voters, some who actually vote against their best interests (Tea Party, anyone?), against a highly motivated collection of cartel accounts numbering in excess of 50,000 (more like 70,000 with alts)

And given the way the STV works, those 50,000 out of 80,000 votes cast will easily dominate the "election".
Yes, I can easily see 70% of the cartel's slate getting on the CSM this year.

I do expect we will see a huge uptick in the amount of votes cast over last year, and then CCP championing this as a victory for democracy. Too bad that the successful candidates are decided on by about a dozen people on Skype weeks before the "election".

Watch out for dogs being imported to Iceland.

OK, one I am stepping up for the Casual Player. I may not be a whole lot but don't make it sound like there is nobody here.

Candidate pool looking smaller? Well you can answer that in one of two ways. You could point out that it is still very early in the election cycle as CCP has not said 'Boo' about it, yet. OR You could say that a lot of the lost causes of yesteryear have decided that this election is not theirs to win, even with STV.

Juggernaut. (I actually looked that word up, great history to it). I hate to break it to you but we SELDOM VOTE in our deliberations. Owning 9 seats has little or no effect over having three, or even one. When I had something to say I am heard, by my fellow members and by the Devs.Matter of fact if you had 9 people repeating some company line they would be more likely to slowly bore the devs and as a result . . .be ignored. And that is assuming that all the NUll sec folks agree and get along.

I agree, I do hope the Winter Minutes come out soon and Summer stuff starts being leaked. Thing is, I cannot recall the last change that was made that you did not see as proof of the Null Cartels plotting the overthrow of Hisec.

m

Huh?

Low sec is another thing altogether.
I have no beef with low sec.
I do a fair bit of work in low sec, and pretty much recognize it is a dog's breakfast of playstyles, most of which center around exploration, quiet R&D/industry , and of course, mayhem. Low sec players are constrained by the game mechanics to "own turf" (forgiveness FW players, I know what I say is not quite accurate there), but I have no doubt if low sec could be conquered, the cartels would be all over it.

Low sec can be a fun place.
My last sweaty palms moment was trying to dodge a gatecamp in Aridia in a cloaked exploration Gila. Manual piloting for the win.

I don't understand where you see me dumping on low sec players...unless it is of course PL using it as a staging grounds for dropping 10 supercaps on a T1 cruiser, because they are bored out of their minds.

There are going to be 14 people on the CSM. Even if only one candidate genuinely engages you, why deprive yourself of a say in who the other 13 are going to be? If nothing else, you can help stop someone you actively don't want on the CSM by voting for people that aren't them.

Hey Dinsdale, why not vote for a Provi candidate this year?

We represent a casual playstyle to EVE and we reject the large coalitions political scheming.

Or do you concider Providence to be a nullsec cartel aswell?

I made the mistake of only placing three names on the ballot last year. From what I understand, this meant my vote had a high chance of being wasted.

Are there any yet?
Ali Aras is now part of Noir.
Who is the Provi bloc running as a candidate?

But I am tired and bored with the game.
It has devolved into null sec being safer than high sec, https://twitter.com/midi2304/status/432495224875933696 (try doing that in Lanngisi) , where the hypocrisy of the cartels and stagnation of the Eve universe is something that CCP celebrates.

Regardless of what the cartel propagandists say, CCP MUST destroy the game mechanics that allow the cartels to flourish.
But the voices of reason that would tell CCP this are muzzled at every level, be it by the goon thugs who derail every forum thread that speaks the truth of the game, or by flooding the CSM with voices that say "keep giving null sec more power is the key to CCP's long-term success", or with having as many CCP employees as possible sympathetic to the cartel agenda.

There is no hope for the casual player in CCP's world.
The only hope CCP has for it's long term future is a slow decline in subs, followed by an overhaul of management, replaced with a team that has the vision and guts to turn this game upside down.

Can I have your stuff?

Lol, install renters in Providence!

Good one.