Market Discussions

Can any one explain the reason for the massive change in the tripped power circuit price over the last 6-9 months?

Some time ago it was trading at ~130-140k isk/item (I think it peaked at 150k) and now it has dropped to <80k. It has essentially halved in price over 90 days. It took a while to drop to <100k but since then the drop has continued at an incredible rate. As far as I am aware, other salvage items are trading at roughly the same price over the same time so there doesn't seem to be a massive increase in people salvaging and the general supply of salvage parts.

I wondered if the peak was due to the war in Fountain pushing up demand for rigs but there does not seem to be a change in the demand for key rigs made with the TPC such as the medium core defence field extender, if anything the volumes have gone up as the price has dropped (It is now <3m c.f. >4m before the price drop in TPC).

I know this is a supply and demand game, so what has caused the drop in this one item? Have drop-rates increased significantly for the TPC specifically? I'm relatively new to the game (<1yr), when do these prices bottom-out? And is there any way to predict the bottom of the market? I thought 100k would be the bottom but thankfully couldn't/didn't invest in a stock-pile!

Thanks.

Hi,

Sorry for that, I'm new to the forums and didn't really think about the market forum until it was already posted.

The reason I put it here is that it directly impacts my manufacturing of T1 rigs, especially if I want to set a run for more than a couple of days. If I set a build going for 4 days the price continues to drop and my healthy margin at d0 is eroded by the drop in TPC price by the time I am ready to deliver to market. It has dropped 10k/item in a week. Currently I'm limiting myself to short build cycles for any item that is using TPC. I think of it as a directly relevant to industry question,but actually as it is phrased, it is purely a market question.

Can I swap the post, or should I just start a new post in market and let this one expire in time?

Tripped were choke point for rig production together with armor plates which inflated their price.

Sisters of eve mission wrecks drop a lot of tripped circuits (and ppl went to them for new ships). New sites also drop lot of salvage and circuits appear in all salvage tables not like special salvage which is NPC specific (armor plates, current pumps...). So in the end all salvage got cheaper but logically choke point material not being choke point, in same measure anymore, dropped in price the most.

Haha, yes armor plates. Armor plates got more and more expensive up to 200k as demand increased but supply was low then all that new hacking/archeology thing came to TQ and supply increased so plates should have dropped much lower then they are BUT WAR HAPPENED. Armor plate demand and therefore price is difficult to predict for simple reason - demand is war/PVP driven and currently we have lot of wars in all armor tanked ships - Trimark anyone :)?
Like you, I also buy in small volume so I don't get stuck with lot of plates if war ends. Roughly 30-40 thousand per week.

Just to add a producer's take on declining commodity prices, I believe one should be turn over existing stock more aggressively. By any measure, a supply glut is devaluing existing stocks, and while panic selling would just make everything worse, a measured response to move to a better overall position is suggested.

Currently, cargo rigs are faced with a broad-based decline of each of their three salvage materials, and although margins are holding reasonably well considering, I would actually undercut right down to cost if need be. Obviously, if the factory profitability of a rig is in the tank, it will sit much lower in build priority -- in fact I see that medium cargoholds have moved right to the bottom of my list.

However, other than naturally building fewer of a rig, which flows on to naturally buying fewer materials to support it, it's a mistake not to continue to stock enough materials to be able to produce an item without interruption. Every sharp drop has its rebounds, and when it happens you want to be in position to jump in.

I might just be seeing things, but at the moment I salvage tripped at about the same rate as burned logics.. Perhaps that's the answer?

There are only 4 rig types produced with Alloyed Trit. salvage and those rigs will have steady demand no matter the price.
Cargohold Optimization I - mostly used on Rorq, orca and industrial, basically ships that don't die a lot.
Dynamic Fuel Valve I - used very rarely.
Engine Thermal Shielding I - used in special builds for frigs and cruisers so small amounts supply market fully.
Polycarbon Engine Housing I - used a lot but mostly on frigs so low amount of Al. Trit. is needed to saturate market.

So if we add the fact that supply increased in order of magnitude with exploration patch, it comes to no surprise that price drops a lot.