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Zydrine Options – (February 2014)

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Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#61 - 2013-11-26 22:39:18 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Block Ukx wrote:

Interesting analysis VV.


Zydrine DOWN
Sell 814
Buy 778


I'm considering adding a ZD1200 policy. Any suggestions on how to price an insurance policy?
My suggestion would be to stop trying to scam people. You know full well Zydrine will not reach the prices you list.



Scam people? How? It's an insurance policy.


Zydrine Price DOWN
Sell 792
Buy 750
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#62 - 2013-11-27 07:41:31 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Block Ukx wrote:

Interesting analysis VV.


Zydrine DOWN
Sell 814
Buy 778


I'm considering adding a ZD1200 policy. Any suggestions on how to price an insurance policy?
My suggestion would be to stop trying to scam people. You know full well Zydrine will not reach the prices you list.
Scam people? How? It's an insurance policy.


Zydrine Price DOWN
Sell 792
Buy 750
Because you know full well you will never have to pay out since the prices are never going to go that high. The fact that you are knowingly selling insurance to cover an event that will never happen makes it a scam.

The alternative is that you truly thought it was going to spike that high, which would mean you know jack all about the economy, and should probably stay out of speculation.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Drab Cane
Carbenadium Industries
#63 - 2013-11-27 12:20:24 UTC
Starting tossing this idea around, and I'm finally starting to see how these options work.

Essentially, this is a hedge for people who are willing to throw in some ISK on the chance that Zydrine returns to a peak price it hasn't seen in over a year.

For Block, it serves as a hedge in case the price doesn't reach the level he's hoping for.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#64 - 2013-11-27 13:32:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Lucas Kell
Drab Cane wrote:
Starting tossing this idea around, and I'm finally starting to see how these options work.

Essentially, this is a hedge for people who are willing to throw in some ISK on the chance that Zydrine returns to a peak price it hasn't seen in over a year.

For Block, it serves as a hedge in case the price doesn't reach the level he's hoping for.
Well block gets the contract amount regardless. If Zydrine then suddenly shot up to 5000 isk/unit, there's no way to be sure he would hand across the Zydrine rather than selling it on the open market.

Essentially he's selling a chance to gamble on his sincerity if the price ever rises, and selling nothing if the price remains the same or drops.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#65 - 2013-11-27 21:05:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Block Ukx
Lucas Kell wrote:
Block Ukx wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Block Ukx wrote:

Interesting analysis VV.


Zydrine DOWN
Sell 814
Buy 778


I'm considering adding a ZD1200 policy. Any suggestions on how to price an insurance policy?
My suggestion would be to stop trying to scam people. You know full well Zydrine will not reach the prices you list.
Scam people? How? It's an insurance policy.


Zydrine Price DOWN
Sell 792
Buy 750
Because you know full well you will never have to pay out since the prices are never going to go that high. The fact that you are knowingly selling insurance to cover an event that will never happen makes it a scam.

The alternative is that you truly thought it was going to spike that high, which would mean you know jack all about the economy, and should probably stay out of speculation.



So you are calling a scam because you think Zydrine might not reach 1,200?


It's an option, if you don't like the price then don't buy it.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#66 - 2013-11-27 21:09:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Block Ukx
Lucas Kell wrote:
Drab Cane wrote:
Starting tossing this idea around, and I'm finally starting to see how these options work.

Essentially, this is a hedge for people who are willing to throw in some ISK on the chance that Zydrine returns to a peak price it hasn't seen in over a year.

For Block, it serves as a hedge in case the price doesn't reach the level he's hoping for.
Well block gets the contract amount regardless. If Zydrine then suddenly shot up to 5000 isk/unit, there's no way to be sure he would hand across the Zydrine rather than selling it on the open market.

Essentially he's selling a chance to gamble on his sincerity if the price ever rises, and selling nothing if the price remains the same or drops.



NO, I don't get the contract price regardless. It's an option. "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_(finance)"

And if Zydrine reaches 5,000 I will handle out the Zydrine because I already have it.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#67 - 2013-11-27 22:43:25 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Drab Cane wrote:
Starting tossing this idea around, and I'm finally starting to see how these options work.

Essentially, this is a hedge for people who are willing to throw in some ISK on the chance that Zydrine returns to a peak price it hasn't seen in over a year.

For Block, it serves as a hedge in case the price doesn't reach the level he's hoping for.
Well block gets the contract amount regardless. If Zydrine then suddenly shot up to 5000 isk/unit, there's no way to be sure he would hand across the Zydrine rather than selling it on the open market.

Essentially he's selling a chance to gamble on his sincerity if the price ever rises, and selling nothing if the price remains the same or drops.



NO, I don't get the contract price regardless. It's an option. "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_(finance)"

And if Zydrine reaches 5,000 I will handle out the Zydrine because I already have it.
Right... yes...
So 2 players have bought those options. I they have paid you, between them, 200m right? So should the price NOT reach 2500, you keep their 200m, and they get the opportunity to buy Zydrine at a price way above market value (which they won't, obviously). So yes, you get the contract amount (the price of buying the option contracts).

Then say it reaches 5000/unit, you could simply sell to the market, that way you've made all of the profit they would have made plus all of the profit you made for buying early.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Awkward Sanchez
Awkward Honesty Inc.
#68 - 2013-11-27 23:43:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Awkward Sanchez
EDIT I have made a fatal error in my assumptions. you were right, I was wrong.

Awkward Honesty. the only mutually profitable scam in eve.
Molic Blackbird
Orion Faction Industries
Orion Consortium
#69 - 2013-11-28 00:50:56 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Right... yes...
So 2 players have bought those options. I they have paid you, between them, 200m right? So should the price NOT reach 2500, you keep their 200m, and they get the opportunity to buy Zydrine at a price way above market value (which they won't, obviously). So yes, you get the contract amount (the price of buying the option contracts).

Then say it reaches 5000/unit, you could simply sell to the market, that way you've made all of the profit they would have made plus all of the profit you made for buying early.



I have no doubt in my mind that Block will sell the Zydrine at 2,500 even if the price is at 5,000. If Block wanted to steal ISK, he had the opportunity to steal 100's of billions and didn't.
Derp Durrr
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#70 - 2013-11-28 01:00:48 UTC
Molic Blackbird wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Right... yes...
So 2 players have bought those options. I they have paid you, between them, 200m right? So should the price NOT reach 2500, you keep their 200m, and they get the opportunity to buy Zydrine at a price way above market value (which they won't, obviously). So yes, you get the contract amount (the price of buying the option contracts).

Then say it reaches 5000/unit, you could simply sell to the market, that way you've made all of the profit they would have made plus all of the profit you made for buying early.



I have no doubt in my mind that Block will sell the Zydrine at 2,500 even if the price is at 5,000. If Block wanted to steal ISK, he had the opportunity to steal 100's of billions and didn't.



This.
Accusing Block of scamming only shows how fresh in this game you truly are. Block is many things, a scammer is not one of them.

Founder of the soon-to-be Legendary Tournament series -=DESTRUCTION DERPY=- Are you up for the challenge? Join our ingame channel Destruction Derpy today!
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#71 - 2013-11-28 08:02:05 UTC
Derp Durrr wrote:
Molic Blackbird wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Right... yes...
So 2 players have bought those options. I they have paid you, between them, 200m right? So should the price NOT reach 2500, you keep their 200m, and they get the opportunity to buy Zydrine at a price way above market value (which they won't, obviously). So yes, you get the contract amount (the price of buying the option contracts).

Then say it reaches 5000/unit, you could simply sell to the market, that way you've made all of the profit they would have made plus all of the profit you made for buying early.



I have no doubt in my mind that Block will sell the Zydrine at 2,500 even if the price is at 5,000. If Block wanted to steal ISK, he had the opportunity to steal 100's of billions and didn't.



This.
Accusing Block of scamming only shows how fresh in this game you truly are. Block is many things, a scammer is not one of them.
LOL

If he's such an epic player, then he already is scamming, since he's got no reason for thinking prices will rise to 2500. So purely the sale of the option contracts itself is a scam in the first place as he knows they will never need to be fulfilled.

And if you trust him so much, how come you aren't buying up these scam contracts of his?

Thinking a guy who is running an obvious scam is not trustworthy does not suddenly mean I am new by the way. And from what I understand, Block has a history of questionable behaviour, so it's not unreasonable to predict he would not pay out. But by all means go buy his contracts and find out for yourself.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#72 - 2013-11-28 12:52:35 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:

Thinking a guy who is running an obvious scam is not trustworthy does not suddenly mean I am new by the way. And from what I understand, Block has a history of questionable behaviour, so it's not unreasonable to predict he would not pay out. But by all means go buy his contracts and find out for yourself.



I managed BSAC for six years and at its peak had access to 750 Billion of public ISK. I closed BSAC over a year ago but I'm still managing the BSAC Exchange.


Every single person that I have dealt with can attest that I have deliver on my promise to pay out over the seven year period that I have been managing public funds.


Now getting back on topic, I welcome ideas on how to price options.


Brendan Anneto
Gladiators of Rage
Fraternity.
#73 - 2013-11-28 14:06:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Brendan Anneto
Block Ukx wrote:
Zydrine Insurance – (Buy Option)

The price of Zydrine has increased steadily since the launch of Rubicon. In the last 24 hours alone, the Zydrine price has gone up ~ 20 %. There is no way of telling where Zydrine price will end up but at this rate you can expect Zydrine price to reach 2,000 – 2,500 by the end on next week. However, manufacturers, traders, and speculators can protect themselves against outrageous Zydrine prices in the future by purchasing Zydrine Insurance.

The Zydrine Insurance policy is basically an option contract, where the policy holder has the option and it is not obligated to purchase Zydrine at the specified strike price any time on or before the policy expiration date. Each single contract consists of 100,000 units of Zydrine available for delivery in Jita Hub with a January 31, 2014 expiration date. There are three different options to choose from that are priced accordingly.

To reserve your policy simply post here the number of contracts and the contract ticker you would like to reserve, and send the policy payment to Block Ukx. All purchased policies will be listed in this thread.

To redeem your policy simply evemail me with the number of contracts you would like to redeem. If you prefer a cash settlement, I will sell the Zydrine for you at the best available price, and deliver your profits in ISK.

Do not hesitate to ask questions. Suggestions are welcome.



PRICING

Contract Ticker : ZD1500
Zydrine Price : 1,500 ISK per unit
Policy Price : 10,000,000 ISK

Contract Ticker : ZD2000
Zydrine Price : 2,000 ISK per unit
Policy Price : 5,000,000 ISK

Contract Ticker : ZD2500
Zydrine Price : 2,500 ISK per unit
Policy Price : 2,000,000 ISK



Total Policies Available : 900
IMPORTANT: Available contracts and prices subject to change depending on market conditions.


CURRENT POLICIES






MEH. I just mine my own.

I also will laugh at your calamity; I will mock when your terror comes, When your terror comes like a storm, And your destruction comes like a whirlwind, When distress and anguish come upon you.   Proverbs 1:26-27
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#74 - 2013-11-28 15:05:13 UTC
Brendan Anneto wrote:
MEH. I just mine my own.


Free minerals are the bearst Bear.

Free 3rd party services

Buddy link w/ bonus 250k SP, you keep the whole PLEX upon subscribing
Derp Durrr
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#75 - 2013-11-28 15:37:08 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
LOL

If he's such an epic player, then he already is scamming, since he's got no reason for thinking prices will rise to 2500. So purely the sale of the option contracts itself is a scam in the first place as he knows they will never need to be fulfilled.

And if you trust him so much, how come you aren't buying up these scam contracts of his?

Thinking a guy who is running an obvious scam is not trustworthy does not suddenly mean I am new by the way. And from what I understand, Block has a history of questionable behaviour, so it's not unreasonable to predict he would not pay out. But by all means go buy his contracts and find out for yourself.


I assume you know the difference between a scam and manipulation.
The technetium spike was not a scam, nor is the current r64 spike, nor the nocxium spike. however, they are man made and are anticipated upon. this is not scamming, it is what separates the witty from the sheep.
in this light, regard the zydrine spike. Block might very well indeed be trying to up the prices and in that light, his insurances are a very good idea. he is speculating on the thought that if everything goes according to plan, he will be the bottleneck to "affordable" zydrine. if it pans out the way he wants to is something else entirely, just like it is irrelevant whether or not you like what he is doing.

I am not buying into his insurances for I, like every other sensible jita dweller, have bought heavily into zydrine when it was beneath 600 isk/u not long ago. in all my years of eve I've never seen it so low, so best stock up now and enjoy it forever.

as for questionable behavior,
I've known block to be the type of guy who sticks to his word, whether that is in your favor or not. If he'd have told me he'd walk my dog while I do some groceries, I'd trust him with it, just like I would start running if he told me he had a sniper outside my house. its a different kind of trustworthiness but it still accounts for something.

So if Block is selling insurances for Zydrine, I start paying attention. for whether he is right in his predictions or not, something is going to happen to it.

Founder of the soon-to-be Legendary Tournament series -=DESTRUCTION DERPY=- Are you up for the challenge? Join our ingame channel Destruction Derpy today!
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#76 - 2013-11-28 16:07:48 UTC
Derp Durrr wrote:
I assume you know the difference between a scam and manipulation.
The technetium spike was not a scam, nor is the current r64 spike, nor the nocxium spike. however, they are man made and are anticipated upon. this is not scamming, it is what separates the witty from the sheep.
in this light, regard the zydrine spike. Block might very well indeed be trying to up the prices and in that light, his insurances are a very good idea. he is speculating on the thought that if everything goes according to plan, he will be the bottleneck to "affordable" zydrine. if it pans out the way he wants to is something else entirely, just like it is irrelevant whether or not you like what he is doing.

I am not buying into his insurances for I, like every other sensible jita dweller, have bought heavily into zydrine when it was beneath 600 isk/u not long ago. in all my years of eve I've never seen it so low, so best stock up now and enjoy it forever.

as for questionable behavior,
I've known block to be the type of guy who sticks to his word, whether that is in your favor or not. If he'd have told me he'd walk my dog while I do some groceries, I'd trust him with it, just like I would start running if he told me he had a sniper outside my house. its a different kind of trustworthiness but it still accounts for something.

So if Block is selling insurances for Zydrine, I start paying attention. for whether he is right in his predictions or not, something is going to happen to it.
Of course I know the difference. He's selling options that will never be required, and he knows this. I can;t honestly believe he's dumb enough to believe that through an tiny increase in the use of Zydrine that can only be measured in fractions of percents, that the price of Zydrine is going to increase threefold. This means he is knowing selling useless contracts. No amount of past behavior changes what he is doing now. Honestly, do you believe Zydrine will reach 2500/unit? Honestly?

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#77 - 2013-11-28 16:18:04 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
I managed BSAC for six years and at its peak had access to 750 Billion of public ISK. I closed BSAC over a year ago but I'm still managing the BSAC Exchange.


Every single person that I have dealt with can attest that I have deliver on my promise to pay out over the seven year period that I have been managing public funds.


Now getting back on topic, I welcome ideas on how to price options.
Oh OK, so running a profitable venture in the past means a guarantee for no scamming in the future? I'll write that in my diary. If anything though, the fact that you've run ventures for profit in the past means you will want to profit on this one, so that furthers the idea that you know Zydrine will never reach your options prices.

I'll give you a hand by the way. What you really should have picked up on in the clear logical fallacy I left for you. You chose to become all defensive instead which I find amusing.
The fallacy is this. I have claimed you are scamming as you know Zydrine prices will never reach your option price, this I stand by (Scam A).
I then suggested that if you were scamming there, then if the option price reached 2500, you wouldn't pay out (Scam B), which is a possibility, but unlikely, since you already would have made the ~600->2500 profit and could maintain your name. That was suggested more to guage your reaction.
The fallacy here is that I am implying Scam A, being easily displayable, would be evidence for Scam B. However, for you to be able to use Scam B, the price would have to have reached your option price, meaning Scam A was not a scam, thus destroying the basis for suggesting you would engage in Scam B.

:D

So ideas on how to price options. How about something that Zydrine stands a chance of actually reaching?

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#78 - 2013-11-28 18:42:00 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
I have claimed you are scamming as you know Zydrine prices will never reach your option price, this I stand by (Scam A).




That is a ridiculous statement. I once claimed Nocxium will reach 600, was I scamming then? I once claimed Pye will hit 12 ISK, was I scamming then? Calling me a scammer because we disagree on a price is very immature.

I'm offering 3 options 2500, 2000, and 1500, and I do believe Zydrine will reach 1,500. I'm considering offering a 1200 option but I'm hesitant because I believe it will easily hit 1200.




Zydrine
Sell 757
Buy 748


Still looking for ideas on pricing options.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#79 - 2013-11-28 20:04:28 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:


Now getting back on topic, I welcome ideas on how to price options.



There are several possible points of improvement.

- Have you checked Black-Scholes options pricing model?

- Options are a marketplace. You have an exchange, make the connection.

- Options should not be set by you, but by the market. I mean, if someone wants to buy an option for 800 ISK he should be able to (assuming he finds a willing seller). Of course an option placed in an easy place has to give very different revenue and have a well different cost compared with one in an "odd place".

I want to stress point 2. You'll never depart from the "scammer" or at least "in bad faith" label if you play the market maker and place yourself in an utterly dominant position.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#80 - 2013-11-28 22:17:35 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
That is a ridiculous statement. I once claimed Nocxium will reach 600, was I scamming then? I once claimed Pye will hit 12 ISK, was I scamming then? Calling me a scammer because we disagree on a price is very immature.
Nocxium had reason to reach that high and a realistic prospect of it. Zydrine does not.

Block Ukx wrote:
I'm offering 3 options 2500, 2000, and 1500, and I do believe Zydrine will reach 1,500.
So you admit that the guys that have currently bought your stocks are not going to get anything from it?
Why are you offering options at prices even you don't believe the price of zydrine will reach? Oh yeah, because of profit.

Block Ukx wrote:
I'm considering offering a 1200 option but I'm hesitant because I believe it will easily hit 1200.
Exactly, so if there's a real chance of you having to pay out, you don't want to offer it, since you won;t make the isk from it. This line right here, this is why it's a scam. Because you know there's no realistic prospect of your buyers making anything.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.