Market Discussions

Hello Everyone,

Some months ago I decided I wanted to start a MD Project/Experiment and I have only just found enough time to start it.

This is The Honestly Dishonest Pyramid Scheme.

Update : Event concluded on Day 17. Analysis on Page 2.

How does it work:

People deposit ISK with me (Reason = Pyramid) to go into a pool of ISK. Having ISK in this pool earns you interest. This interest is earned by subsequent depositors. Interest is 1% per day. After 7 days interest is 3% per day. After 14 days interest is 5% per day. After 21 days the interest is 10% per day. Withdrawals are locked for 8 days to prevent this event ending suddenly when a single large investor clears the pool. After the first week once you deposit you cannot withdraw for 24hrs. The cash pool is not revealed to anyone to prevent gaming - after the event transactions logs will be made available for the cash pool. Remember not to post how much you are sending.

The Twist:

Outstanding community champion Chribba has rolled a random number between 8 and 30 and has informed me of it see post #10. This is the day on which I "scam" everyone. On the day this happens I will take 5% of the total pool. 45% of the remaining will be returned equally to the top 10 investors. 50% will be returned equally to all other investors. Myself and/or Chribba will be making the number public after the event. If people withdraw ISK from the pool prior to "Scam Day" they can withdraw as much or as little of their deposit + interest as they like. For calculations of this day the start day Tuesday 26th November is day 1. Wednesday 27th November is day 2 and so forth.

However:

If the ISK pool is reduced to 0 at any time during the event the event ends. Whomever has withdrawn their ISK are the winners. I take nothing from the pool in this event.

Additional Rules:
1. Deposits under 10m are ineligible for any payout on "Scam" day.
2. "Scam" day begins at Midnight. Any withdrawals received between Midnight on "Scam" day and when I actually login to complete the event are ineligible for processing.
3. Withdrawals are requested by Evemail listing the total amount you want withdrawn - there is a Timetable below to determine your account level or you can just evemail "Everything". If I am not online withdrawals are honored as of the time they were requested - unless rule #2 is broken.
4. Interest daily means the following 24hrs. If you deposit at 23:59 Tuesday you will earn 1% interest on 23:59 Wednesday. You will be able to withdraw your amount at 23:59 Wednesday.
5. Days are organised based on a count that includes the first day. Tuesday 26th November is Day 1. Tuesday 3rd December is day 8. Tuesday 10th December is day 15. Tuesday 17th December is day 22. Tuesday 24th December is day 29. Wednesday 2th December is day 30.

Timetable:

Tuesday 26.11.13 Event Starts
1% Daily Interest until :
Tuesday 3.12.13 Withdrawals Available
3% Daily Interest until:
Tuesday 10.12.13
5% Daily Interest until
Tuesday 17.12.13
10% Interest until
Wednesday 25.12.13
Event is limited to 30 days.

"Scam Day" can happen from Days 9 - 30 (Wednesday 4th - Wednesday 25th). This timetable is invalidated by Scam Day occurring earlier and therefore the event ending.

Mailing List :

Join the mailing list "THDPS" for updates of interest increases and withdrawal activation.

Why am I doing this:

It's an interesting experiment. If some fortunate investor deposits enough ISK in the last two days they have the chance of accruing so much interest that a single withdrawal will empty the pool entirely. Or they run the chance of depositing too close to the unknown "Scam Day" and losing their ability to withdraw and must just hope they regain ISK by being a top investor.

You can play it safe and deposit a small amount early on and hope that it adds up. Or you can deposit late to benefit from the skyrocketing "interest" in the late game to profit with a quick cash grab.

Why I'm likely to not steal your ISK:
This gentleman offered some good questions and I have answered them here : post 6

copycat!

Essentially, you are offering the MD community a somewhat convoluted gambling/lottery scheme.

More or less.

I don't remember quite when I thought it up but it seems relatively unique and I wanted to see what would happen.

I'm probably going to chart the results and see how it is played in terms of late deposits, average length of deposit held and so forth.

Check my signature posts.

I've run a standings business (which is far more complicated and difficult than any other kind of service I've ever seen in Eve, but that's an aside) for four years. I have taken dozens of billions of ISK from people and then paid it to mission runners who provide standings.

You're welcome to read through that forum thread and see all the positive testimonials about me on it.

1. I wouldn't risk sinking my standings service over some piecemeal effort like this.
2. If I were to risk my reputation (or simply renege upon it) I'd do something far more profitable than a market experiment.
3. If you're not comfortable with it, don't deposit. I never said anywhere in this post that this is secure, I just explained why you can trust me more than a forum alt

My sincere thanks to Chribba for going out of his way for this.

I was going to use Chribba's Dice Tool to secure a number, however the number is hidden to myself until I unlock it. Unlocking it makes it public. MD is generally full of clever people and therefore someone would find the number of days until "Scam day" and then game the system accordingly. In a real Ponzi scheme you have no idea when it is going to end.

Since Chribba's Dice wouldn't work, I contacted Chribba to ask if there was any way to do what I wanted and his suggestion was that he simply roll a dice, tell me the number (so we both knew it) and then reveal it at the end.

I'm happy securing the "billions of isk" (I'd be very surprised if this went that large) simply because I have done it before for numbers far north of "billions". I want a degree of transparency to this and "scam" day is integral in so far as if I were inclined and able to manipulate it I would determine whether or not I make any ISK at all. As I have mentioned in the OP if the pool is emptied before "Scam day" I'll simply end up with nothing.

And we're into our second day. 6 Days till withdrawals and I'm still accepting investments.

And we're in to our 3rd day.

I was going to try and be clever and work out what the potential risks and returns were estimating the likely investment that this may see, but then i just decided to throw some money in without thinking about it instead as its more fun. I will admit though that the number of zeros in the figure I sent went up and down in indecisiveness before I hit send :P. I feel like there should be an investment amount that is highly unlikely to see you losing money, but i'm not smart enough to work out what that is. Good luck folks :P