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Zydrine Options – (February 2014)

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mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#21 - 2013-11-21 19:01:36 UTC
A surge on a patch day is unsurprising and not really indicative of much. And, if I didn't want to show off my orders I wouldn't tag them. Bear

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#22 - 2013-11-21 20:21:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Lucas Kell
Block Ukx wrote:
I agree, it is probably doubtful Zydrine will reach 2,500 ISK pu by Jan 31, 2014, but I think it could possibly reach 1,500 ISK pu. However, I agree with Grozen’s observation that the new modules will push the price of Zydrine up.
Doubt it... a lot. The new modules use a fraction of Zydrine, barely even a mentionable amount. Sure there's a spike as the initial wave of production hits, but I doubt it will break 1000.

Block Ukx wrote:
This insurance offer is really an option for people that might want to protect themselves against a sudden spike in Zydrine prices. One option is what you mention – buy it right now at market price. Another option is to lever your money (up to 1:125) by purchasing this option. For instance, with 2M ISK you could purchase the grand total of 2,604 units of Zydrine at 768. Suddenly, the price peaks at 3,000 ISK pu (best case scenario), you then sell it and profit 2,604 * (3,000-768) = 5.8 M ISK. In contrast, you could purchase one option contract and opt to settle for ISK. In this case your profit would be 100,000 * (3,000 – 2,500) = 50 M ISK. As you can see, using leverage can greatly amplify your profits. Because this is an option, the most you stand to lose in this scenario is 2M ISK.
Except since it's doubtful it will ever break 1000, and it's definitely not going to reach 1500, the only one that wins is you. You get 2-10b in contracts and a buyer will never need the Zydrine at nearly 2x it's price.

Seriously, at least try a little harder with your scams.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Drab Cane
Carbenadium Industries
#23 - 2013-11-21 20:39:06 UTC
Here's some more speculation:

I can't see the pricing advancing much beyond 900. I suspect some price manipulation from people stockpiling zydrine at the 550 / unit price and now ready to take their profit.
GreasyCarl Semah
A Game as Old as Empire
#24 - 2013-11-21 21:20:31 UTC  |  Edited by: GreasyCarl Semah
I rather enjoy how the concept of an out of the money call option on a commodity like zydrine splits the minds of the hardcore "traders" on the MD forums. Any reasonable person would have been long zydrine since mid summer, waiting for the inevitable. I might be interested in some puts since you think we are going to 2,500 a unit Big smile
Grozen
Mateber Mining and Manufacturing Company
C U L T
#25 - 2013-11-21 22:38:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Grozen
It does seem like the thread spiked up heavy speculation.Although other regions seem to be totally drained out of zydrine.Tbh I'm expecting a good dump somewhere along the lines of 1.2-1.4 which should restore normal prices to some extend at least but blocks offer seem better with the day.


Edit 1k in dod wdf ShockedShockedShocked

knowledge is power.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#26 - 2013-11-22 02:23:12 UTC

Here are some interesting links to read..

http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=104794

http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=102747


While we don't agree on the speculated peak and stable prices, we all seem to agree that the price will go up and stay up.



Rens and Amarr are near 900 ISK pu, and Jita is near 850 ISK pu.
Grozen
Mateber Mining and Manufacturing Company
C U L T
#27 - 2013-11-22 02:54:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Grozen
Block Ukx wrote:

Here are some interesting links to read..

http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=104794

http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=102747


While we don't agree on the speculated peak and stable prices, we all seem to agree that the price will go up and stay up.



Rens and Amarr are near 900 ISK pu, and Jita is near 850 ISK pu.






All in sold the house and the car.Selfscam ftw.Worst case scenario i will be building stuff for 1-2monthsLol
You gotta hand it to me im your biggest customer.Blink
The old prices are wack.Like ice ain't even coming close to this since zydrine is pretty much in super high demand atm and i suspect it will be like that for long.

knowledge is power.
Molic Blackbird
Orion Faction Industries
Orion Consortium
#28 - 2013-11-22 03:06:35 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:

Here are some interesting links to read..

http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=104794

http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=102747


While we don't agree on the speculated peak and stable prices, we all seem to agree that the price will go up and stay up.



Rens and Amarr are near 900 ISK pu, and Jita is near 850 ISK pu.




Block have you been smoking some funny weed? Zydrine prices from 10 years ago have no bearing on what the future price of Zydrine will be.
Kirkwood Ross
Golden Profession
#29 - 2013-11-22 03:07:35 UTC
There is no way it will reach 2,000 - 2,500 pu from rubicon. If it reaches 1,500 pu; i'm dumping 34.6m units in Jita.
Grozen
Mateber Mining and Manufacturing Company
C U L T
#30 - 2013-11-22 03:21:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Grozen
Kirkwood Ross wrote:
There is no way it will reach 2,000 - 2,500 pu from rubicon. If it reaches 1,500 pu; i'm dumping 34.6m units in Jita.


34.6m is like drop in a lake.To affect prices you would need nothing less than 800m units and it will still be temporary.Atm zydrine is almost the same consumption as isogen modules wise I'm not even puting ships here.Lets see how todays trading goes but my guess is no less than 70m units sold.

FOR ZYDRINIA!Big smileBig smile

knowledge is power.
Drab Cane
Carbenadium Industries
#31 - 2013-11-22 03:25:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Drab Cane
Block Ukx wrote:


Rens and Amarr are near 900 ISK pu, and Jita is near 850 ISK pu.



Amarr isn't really a sign of increased demand - the price was propped up a couple of days ago.

EDIT: Gonna shut up now and watch the show /popcorn
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#32 - 2013-11-22 03:37:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Block Ukx
Grozen wrote:

You gotta hand it to me im your biggest customer.Blink





Hmm, yes interesting. All I did was re-priced what was already on the market. Jita @ 900 pu !
RAW23
#33 - 2013-11-22 12:02:26 UTC
Molic Blackbird wrote:


Block have you been smoking some funny weed? Zydrine prices from 10 years ago have no bearing on what the future price of Zydrine will be.


That's a generous explanation for Block's recent posting.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#34 - 2013-11-22 13:13:03 UTC
Molic Blackbird wrote:
Block have you been smoking some funny weed? Zydrine prices from 10 years ago have no bearing on what the future price of Zydrine will be.



No, I don't smoke. I'm just preparing people for possible skyrocketing prices. Do you remember when Tritanium used to cost 2 ISK, Pyerite 2 ISK , Mexallon 10 ISK, and Nocxium 60 ISK? Soon will be remembering 500 ISK Zydrine. Throughout EVE's history, changes in the distribution of mineral consumption or ore composition and accessibility leads to a "rebalancing" of the mineral basket. Nothing affects the mineral basket more than expansions. The recent expansion has the potential of rebalancing mineral prices once more.


Here is a modified quote from one of the posts you think is irrelevant:

"Based over the past couple weeks, Zydrine prices have been rising from a consistent 550-500 to 1000-1200. Reasons have been given which include ore rarity, ship consumption (raising demand for all minerals) and the amount needed for BS construction. Calls for increased mining of precious ore has not been enough. Zydrine output (just like oil in real life) is at maximum and there isn't much capacity to go any higher" - Venna

Noticed that I only change the price from the original quote. Do you still think is irrelevant? It seems that the 10 year old quote applies today. History repeats itself.


Here is another quote:

People choosing not to heed my advice will be obvious. They will be the ones posting over the next couple of weeks threads entitled "Zyd prices out of control," "CCP please intervene," and "We need Ark and Crok in 1.0 space!" - Venna



I think that statement will come true in a few weeks. Let's see how long it takes before we start seen those kinds of threads appearing on MD.


Bottom line is Zydrine was grossly under valued at 500 ISK (just like Nocxium was at 60 ISK), and even if you think that the new price will be 1,000 ISK, history shows that the spike price tends to be 2-5 times its new baseline. That would suggest a peak price of about 2,000 - 5,000 ISK. I really hope ccp keeps their hands out of this one and let Zydrine spike wildly.




Zydrine buy orders holding at ~ 800 ISK. I think this weekend should bring some interesting results.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#35 - 2013-11-22 15:41:58 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
While we don't agree on the speculated peak and stable prices, we all seem to agree that the price will go up and stay up.

Rens and Amarr are near 900 ISK pu, and Jita is near 850 ISK pu.
Go up, yes, partially. Stay up, no, at least not mroe than a trivial amount.
And most of the spike isn't being caused by unusually high use or lack of supply, it's being cause by speculation and stockpiling. Once it hit's a peak that someone with a large stockpile considers to be the peak, they'll dump their stock, the market will start to dip again and everyone with panic sell. It is highly highly unlikely any of your options wil lbe profitable any time soon unless CCP make a change that hits it really hard.

This is the problem with investing on stockpile spikes though. They are difficult to predict, since you are trying to predict what everyone else is predicting. In almost every case, the person that wins is the first major player to dump their stock, since the price drops from that point on.

Block Ukx wrote:
I'm just preparing people for possible skyrocketing prices.
No, you are successfully selling thin air. You are giving people an option to buy at a price higher than the market price will go. The prices you've chosen aren't even remotely reasonable, and nobody buying from you will make a profit. Some people are just dumb enough to fall for anything.

Block Ukx wrote:
Do you remember when Tritanium used to cost 2 ISK, Pyerite 2 ISK , Mexallon 10 ISK, and Nocxium 60 ISK? Soon will be remembering 500 ISK Zydrine. Throughout EVE's history, changes in the distribution of mineral consumption or ore composition and accessibility leads to a "rebalancing" of the mineral basket. Nothing affects the mineral basket more than expansions. The recent expansion has the potential of rebalancing mineral prices once more.
Yes I do. the difference being they completely overhauled the use of those minerals. Zydrine will not spike to 5 times it's value due to a few hundred units being used in a handful of products. If you honestly believe that, you have some serious issues.

Block Ukx wrote:
even if you think that the new price will be 1,000 ISK, history shows that the spike price tends to be 2-5 times its new baseline. That would suggest a peak price of about 2,000 - 5,000 ISK.

Since when?
Even at it's highest peak in the past 4 years, following 550m units bought in a single day in The Forge, the price was under 3x it's normal price.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Silvetica Dian
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#36 - 2013-11-22 16:47:51 UTC
thankyou for this service.
It made me notice the price rise and buy some somewhere else at 740. I bought quite a lot extra as well just in case.
10/10 would do again.

Money at its root is a form of rationing. When the richest 85 people have as much wealth as the poorest 3.5 billion (50% of humanity) it is clear where the source of poverty is. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/20/trickle-down-economics-broken-promise-richest-85
GreasyCarl Semah
A Game as Old as Empire
#37 - 2013-11-22 17:13:18 UTC
Fact is none of us knows what will happen to zydrine. If some guy wants to buy several hundred billion ISK worth of it, I am certain it would skyrocket. And there are plenty of players with that kind of capital. I don't know of a better scenario of uncertainty than one where a single person can reset the market. That is exactly what took it over 1200 ISK a unit last time from what I understand.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#38 - 2013-11-22 17:29:21 UTC
GreasyCarl Semah wrote:
Fact is none of us knows what will happen to zydrine. If some guy wants to buy several hundred billion ISK worth of it, I am certain it would skyrocket. And there are plenty of players with that kind of capital. I don't know of a better scenario of uncertainty than one where a single person can reset the market. That is exactly what took it over 1200 ISK a unit last time from what I understand.
I disagree. Some of us do know what will happen. Like the OP. That's why this is a scam. Anyone with even a tiny amount of knowledge of the market can see there's simply not enough demand to create a spike as high as advertised.

What he's got is a bunch of unsure people he can trick into buy a contract that later they well realise was no good. Then they'll come back here all sad because they paid 100m for nothing. Then the I told ya so's will begin. I eagerly await those.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Batelle
Federal Navy Academy
#39 - 2013-11-22 18:32:52 UTC
This is fantastic because I still have stockpiles of zydrine left unsold from previous patch speculations.

"**CCP is changing policy, and has asked that we discontinue the bonus credit program after November 7th. So until then, enjoy a super-bonus of 1B Blink Credit for each 60-day GTC you buy!"**

Never forget.
GreasyCarl Semah
A Game as Old as Empire
#40 - 2013-11-22 22:05:23 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
GreasyCarl Semah wrote:
Fact is none of us knows what will happen to zydrine. If some guy wants to buy several hundred billion ISK worth of it, I am certain it would skyrocket. And there are plenty of players with that kind of capital. I don't know of a better scenario of uncertainty than one where a single person can reset the market. That is exactly what took it over 1200 ISK a unit last time from what I understand.
I disagree. Some of us do know what will happen. Like the OP. That's why this is a scam. Anyone with even a tiny amount of knowledge of the market can see there's simply not enough demand to create a spike as high as advertised. What he's got is a bunch of unsure people he can trick into buy a contract that later they well realise was no good. Then they'll come back here all sad because they paid 100m for nothing. Then the I told ya so's will begin. I eagerly await those.


Oh Lucas Kell you have no idea what will happen. You are making an educated guess. The OP could lose his shirt for all we know. Although he would have to actually perform on his obligations to do that which I am very certain he wouldn't. This is just another elaborate scam. I tried selling legitimate option contracts on minerals a while back and got very little traction. And it wasn't this nonsense where the strike price was 4X the spot price either. I think a major part of the problem with this plan, whether legitimate or scam, is the sheer amount of DUMB on these forums.