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moon materials and the market

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Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#1 - 2013-11-15 20:54:45 UTC
With the siphon unit, I am unsure what type of effect it will have on the market.

On the one hand, I see more fighting possible, more chances for the materials to get blown up and never make it to market. Upward pressure on prices.

On the other hand, there will be more people trying to sell them. The increased number of people trying to sell them will mean greater competition, downward pressure on prices.

hmph. Guess I'll have to wait and see.
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#2 - 2013-11-15 21:05:23 UTC
Small timers cashing in quick just means more cash in the pockets of the people who manage the T2 mats market and keep things coherent and stable for all you peons out there.

You're welcome.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal
Derp Durrr
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2013-11-15 21:31:19 UTC
not gonna be scared of the solo leeches out there. if anything, they will use it as harassment, like being a cloaky in a system. dunno if they even care what to do with the goo, so they might as well dump it all in buy orders.
however,
siphon is gonna be a tool of doom to the bigger, more organized covert fleets out there. immagine this: recon/cloaky/blops fleet goes from a to b, dropping siphons along the way. on their way back, scout checks if anyone is tempering with the siphons. if so, lights a cyno, bridges in the fleet, kills the poor basterd, rinse and repeat. might stick around, but thats not the point. here it is riskless bait.
or this one:
Goons and NC. start their thug of war along their borders. rows of POS towers are being reinforced, while loads of siphons are being installed along the way. since you can leave more than one siphon up on a single target, its not gonna be a pretty sight. and at the price they are going for, its not gonna be a huge loss to deploy a siphon. the goal won't be to gain isk from it, the goal will be to have the target lose isk.
which is overly obvious in the next one:
nice bear pocket with reactorparadise is being siphoned at multiple towers in the region. takes 4 guys to set up and make the owner paranoid. for if he misses his cycles, he can mess up his entire profit structure. so the optimal tower setups aren't gonna cut it anymore, instead buffertowers will have to be built to be able to cope with these little stings.

in the end it all comes down to how creative people will be with them. but I think that over time, these things will be standard procedure next to sov blocks and bubbles and cov/blops have gained a very powerful toy to play with.
Economic warfare 2.0!

Founder of the soon-to-be Legendary Tournament series -=DESTRUCTION DERPY=- Are you up for the challenge? Join our ingame channel Destruction Derpy today!
Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#4 - 2013-11-16 00:51:36 UTC
Varius Xeral wrote:
Small timers cashing in quick just means more cash in the pockets of the people who manage the T2 mats market and keep things coherent and stable for all you peons out there.

You're welcome.


The median price usually being at or near the top of the day's price range would indicate that most of the T2 mats are not dumped onto buyers but are instead put up as sell orders. So I'm doubtful that the T2 mat markets are 'managed', as you suggest.
Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#5 - 2013-11-16 01:12:43 UTC
Furthermore, since most of them go up as sell orders now, having people take some of those same materials and instead dump them into the buy orders is downward pressure.
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#6 - 2013-11-16 05:13:18 UTC
I'm not sure why you'd start a discussion when you don't have the basic modern understanding of linear time and cause and effect, but there's not much point in talking to you until you do.

Until then: it is so because The Great Sun God Zumbooju wills it to be so.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#7 - 2013-11-16 06:40:31 UTC
Smohq Anmirorz wrote:
Varius Xeral wrote:
Small timers cashing in quick just means more cash in the pockets of the people who manage the T2 mats market and keep things coherent and stable for all you peons out there.

You're welcome.


The median price usually being at or near the top of the day's price range would indicate that most of the T2 mats are not dumped onto buyers but are instead put up as sell orders. So I'm doubtful that the T2 mat markets are 'managed', as you suggest.


http://i.imgur.com/tt8wBFR.png

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#8 - 2013-11-16 07:46:02 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Smohq Anmirorz wrote:
Varius Xeral wrote:
Small timers cashing in quick just means more cash in the pockets of the people who manage the T2 mats market and keep things coherent and stable for all you peons out there.

You're welcome.


The median price usually being at or near the top of the day's price range would indicate that most of the T2 mats are not dumped onto buyers but are instead put up as sell orders. So I'm doubtful that the T2 mat markets are 'managed', as you suggest.


http://i.imgur.com/tt8wBFR.png


Now that's not very fair. I have said that I expect upward pressures, as well. I'm simply saying that having more mats sold to buy orders than are now is likely to make things different. I invite you to look at the median price of T2 mats compared to the daily range of prices. How would you interpret the median being right at the top of the range on the majority of days? How do you determine whether there are a majority of buy orders or sell orders?

Honestly, MD throws around the 'manipulation' idea like you're all paranoid.
Tauranon
Weeesearch
CAStabouts
#9 - 2013-11-16 07:50:36 UTC
Derp Durrr wrote:
not gonna be scared of the solo leeches out there. if anything, they will use it as harassment, like being a cloaky in a system. dunno if they even care what to do with the goo, so they might as well dump it all in buy orders.
however,
siphon is gonna be a tool of doom to the bigger, more organized covert fleets out there. immagine this: recon/cloaky/blops fleet goes from a to b, dropping siphons along the way. on their way back, scout checks if anyone is tempering with the siphons. if so, lights a cyno, bridges in the fleet, kills the poor basterd, rinse and repeat. might stick around, but thats not the point. here it is riskless bait.
!


if I had to manage 20 goo towers, I'd probably always use my alt to scout, and man the towers whilst I use an indy to clear the siphons content and then use the tower to blow away the siphon.

I couldn't see too many people dropping blops under manned tower guns.

The siphons aren't a tool of doom, they take 15% or whatever and an active tower holder is usually going to recover some, its just a tool of irritation for distantly held towers or rarely serviced towers.
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#10 - 2013-11-16 07:57:19 UTC
You're answering your own question, you just don't realize it.

It is mostly sell orders because it is mostly run by large institutional players with fat wallets and long time horizons. What happens when a few randoms start throwing small amounts on buy orders? The large players buy it up and re-list it, and take the margin for themselves. Even when there is downward pressure on t2 mats from a short term flurry of activity, there are enough big players that are able, happy, and informed enough to buy it cheap and sit on it for a month.

So to, again, answer your question: prices will (or have already) go up from the (expected) wastage and loss inherent in the introduction of siphons. Random schmoes dumping individually meaningless amounts on the market will have a negligible effect.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal
Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#11 - 2013-11-16 08:00:23 UTC
Varius Xeral wrote:
You're answering your own question, you just don't realize it.

It is mostly sell orders because it is mostly run by large institutional players with fat wallets and long time horizons. What happens when a few randoms start throwing small amounts on buy orders? The large players buy it up and re-list it, and take the margin for themselves. Even when there is downward pressure on t2 mats from a short term flurry of activity, there are enough big players that are able, happy, and informed enough to buy it cheap and sit on it for a month.

So to, again, answer your question: prices will (or have already) go up from the (expected) wastage and loss inherent in the introduction of siphons. Random schmoes dumping individually meaningless amounts on the market will have a negligible effect.



Thank you for the more well-thought out answer, it is appreciated.
I Was There
Habemus
#12 - 2013-11-16 11:57:21 UTC
If **** goes wild, it's just time to cash out, and reinvest in an Isktar.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#13 - 2013-11-17 04:19:38 UTC
Smohq Anmirorz wrote:
mynnna wrote:
Smohq Anmirorz wrote:
Varius Xeral wrote:
Small timers cashing in quick just means more cash in the pockets of the people who manage the T2 mats market and keep things coherent and stable for all you peons out there.

You're welcome.


The median price usually being at or near the top of the day's price range would indicate that most of the T2 mats are not dumped onto buyers but are instead put up as sell orders. So I'm doubtful that the T2 mat markets are 'managed', as you suggest.


http://i.imgur.com/tt8wBFR.png


Now that's not very fair. I have said that I expect upward pressures, as well. I'm simply saying that having more mats sold to buy orders than are now is likely to make things different. I invite you to look at the median price of T2 mats compared to the daily range of prices. How would you interpret the median being right at the top of the range on the majority of days? How do you determine whether there are a majority of buy orders or sell orders?

Honestly, MD throws around the 'manipulation' idea like you're all paranoid.


This isn't paranoia, it's an overt statement. You think the rapid recent rise of R64s has been natural? Lol

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#14 - 2013-11-17 05:08:03 UTC
That reminds me, there's still around 12B worth of cheap thulium as of this posting. Get it before it doubles in price.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal
Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#15 - 2013-11-17 07:16:45 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Smohq Anmirorz wrote:
mynnna wrote:
Smohq Anmirorz wrote:
Varius Xeral wrote:
Small timers cashing in quick just means more cash in the pockets of the people who manage the T2 mats market and keep things coherent and stable for all you peons out there.

You're welcome.


The median price usually being at or near the top of the day's price range would indicate that most of the T2 mats are not dumped onto buyers but are instead put up as sell orders. So I'm doubtful that the T2 mat markets are 'managed', as you suggest.


http://i.imgur.com/tt8wBFR.png


Now that's not very fair. I have said that I expect upward pressures, as well. I'm simply saying that having more mats sold to buy orders than are now is likely to make things different. I invite you to look at the median price of T2 mats compared to the daily range of prices. How would you interpret the median being right at the top of the range on the majority of days? How do you determine whether there are a majority of buy orders or sell orders?

Honestly, MD throws around the 'manipulation' idea like you're all paranoid.


This isn't paranoia, it's an overt statement. You think the rapid recent rise of R64s has been natural? Lol


I guess I took it the wrong way. I thought you were trying to say that I was trying to manipulate the market with my post.
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#16 - 2013-11-17 11:58:36 UTC
We would never think that.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#17 - 2013-11-17 14:54:18 UTC
Varius Xeral wrote:
That reminds me, there's still around 12B worth of cheap thulium as of this posting. Get it before it doubles in price.


Whoops, all gone. Only went up 60% though, so at 30k per unit it probably still has little way to go long term. 60% was good enough for me though, and gratz to whoever else got in for the ride last night.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#18 - 2013-11-17 14:57:56 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
Smohq Anmirorz wrote:


I guess I took it the wrong way. I thought you were trying to say that I was trying to manipulate the market with my post.


Yeah no I was trying to say that I am.

Varius Xeral wrote:
Varius Xeral wrote:
That reminds me, there's still around 12B worth of cheap thulium as of this posting. Get it before it doubles in price.


Whoops, all gone. Only went up 60% though, so at 30k per unit it probably still has little way to go long term. 60% was good enough for me though, and gratz to whoever else got in for the ride last night.


Oh it does for sure but there's lord knows how much out there. I need to finish Neo and Prom and cash out some before I move on to Thulium. Bear That was just a little experimental poke to see what the market does.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Whereis Mebong
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#19 - 2013-11-18 23:43:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Whereis Mebong
r64 moons are printing isk again around the 40k mark per, prob around the 2.5b profit mark per moon, per month. So would be in the interests of the major blocks to keep it around that mark. cfc prob sitting on the 250-300 moon mark, so your looking conservative around the 600-700b p/m. thulium around the 1b profit mark with it sitting around the 20k mark, so add that and its turning out quite the monthly stipend. rus rus block, and n3 block would be making a pretty penny of the moons as well atm.
As for thulium, mynnna, just send me a mail when to dump it................. <3