Market Discussions

I have been contacted by people reporting missing images on the original http://www.vahrokh.com/2013/08/market-analysis-niiso-nitrogen-isotopes-01/ version of the analysis.

The EvE forums version is unaffected.

Not only the pictures were missing, but only the first analysis page was showing as well.

I have fixed everything now. The malfunction was caused by a cached page file that somehow got corrupted.

Now feel free to read the full analysis, it looks way better on the website than in here.

I will post Pt 2 (updated to the last day) tomorrow or the day after.

As usual, I remind those who want to be informed in advance of new articles, that I always tweet the new content URLs ahead of time compared to when it appears on the EvE forums.

Hi,

Interesting read. Coincidentally I have been trying to apply technical analysis methods to other non-financial RL fractal systems. Reading through this has boosted my curiosity to apply them in EvE.

I was trying to download your template for EvE to use in MultiCharts® Discretionary Trader, but I think the link is down?

The same for EvEMarketHistoryDump.

Any chance you could make these available again?

Regards

Cheers

October 2013 PLEX market analysis

I have just written a very educational PLEX market analysis article.

Not only it gives information about what is best to do next, but it explains how and why supports, resistances, big round numbers and trend lines exist.

It also describes a phenomenon I did not cover on this forum yet: the magnetic effect of those levels on price.

I hope you'll like the article as much as I loved to write it!

Extremely illiquid markets

I have faced some very illiquid EvE and RL markets. These are very hard to trade as a swing trader because they basically don't show visible swings (duh!).

Then a little lamp light turned on in my little brain: what if I am just looking at the market with a wrong pair of glasses?

Because markets are rarely wrong, therefore the fault is on my side.


So here you go, in my never ending experiments I found out that just by changing time frame or axis linearity (i.e. from standard to logarythmic) I get those tasty price bars and swings back!


Example taken TOTALLY from a random situation: today I was reading an Italian finance forum (surprise!) and a guy replied to a very nice trader (even in RL!) called Briga73 to go check an illiquid security: steel.

Being a curious muppet, I promptly went to check the CME Group steel security. I got shown a table. The table shows a series of months, with some stats and each row got a button to open a chart. Nom nom!

So I click October 2013 and what do I see? The typical illiquid market!

Look at this screenshot: doesn't it really look like to those "out of the way" or "rare-ish item" EvE markets? Some hardly connected dots - lines and that's it!

Now let's change our pair of glasses: change just a few options so that they look like this second screenshot.

TA-DA! Instant sense in the chart! Even the least trained eye who read some of this thread will immediately spot the double bottom to the right.

Now comes the unavoidable question: would we have traded this setup with a profit? That is, does this method apply even to this "worst case" kind of market?

Well, the only way to know, is to actually backtest it. Let's draw a couple of lines to show the relevant market structures and thus learn WPD (What Price is Doing). They are quite obvious: past swings "peaked" at those lines. The RM (double bottom is a Range Market aka RM) resistance itself comes from a previous swing low.
The double bottom is a bullish inversion pattern (a bullish information) and then we see the often "retracement" back to it. I remind readers that RETracements are price doing always its same mechanic: it breaks a line, goes up a bit then comes back down to hit said line and then "uses" it as support to later proceed upwards. This process whose acronym is RET, gives us a second information about the new trend direction.
What do we miss is just the "smoking gun", that is the evidence also known as confirmation.

Informations = clues
Confirmation = evidence confirming the clues.


Where's confirmation or evidence that the trend now is bullish? And what about WPG (Where Price is Going)?

Simple, che confirmation is a suitable price action pattern sitting exactly at that RET and the WPG is... "Price is Going up! Price will meet and react to those levels I have drawn in the first charts".

Why do those price action patterns even appear? They appear because buyers leave a mark where they have won against sellers (bullish market). Many of these marks have been studied and given a name: pin bars, bullish outside bars, double bars low higher close and a couple others. When we spot these markes we know with good statistical confidence that price will indeed go a certain direction. Notice that those marks ONLY AND EXCLUSIVELY have sense in a precise context, that is when price hits levels. When left to "run free in the middle of nowhere" those marks have no predictable meaning at all.

Back to our chart, we look for such mark / price action pattern and we indeed find one: a two days bullish pin bar, exactly sitting in the "valley" created by the RET. This is the confirmation or evidence we were looking for!

What is one nice pin bar property? That it tells us where price will go immediately past it. Price will go to the first met of these:
- the previous bar high (September)
- the price level immediately above.

In our case we have no price level sitting immediately above, so we set our first target at the high of September's bar. The next targets will be the tips of the nearest important swings. This is the resulting trading plan.
We are just following the old: "plan the trade then trade the plan".

So in our backtest (there are specific software to do those backtests) we setup the buy order right above the 2 days pin bar top, the stop loss right below the 2 days pin bar tail(s) and wait. And the next bar activates the order and goes to our targets.

This is that simple and works in RL like in EvE.

And as you can see, it works even in those nasty illiquid markes!

This completes my study on some T2 and PI markets I have started when I announced my 100B investment funds thread: the T2BSK and PIBSK baskets.

Thank you for the appreciation!

If you wish to get these things explained in a different way that would give you "the idea" please tell me and I'll try to reply any questions.

Which ones? I don't really track all the markets, I focus on those I do my trading into.

before id tracked all material involve in production mechanical for my own price evaluation price item but with irl activity i kept this
now I track only all market in high sec and all Planeteray Item product for same reason and some 'trade activity'

I would love to see an analysis on Robotics. Part of the Planetary Material / Specialized Commodities group.

I have great news for you!

It took me two hours of research but in the end I managed to dig up some ancient data I had in a backup.

Then I found a number of Robotics market data CSV files and slapped all together, the resulting dataset is not only accurate but also it did not lose a single day!

The full analysis is posted on my website.

Enjoy it and please rate it!