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Nosygamer's analysis of indirect RMT via Lottery Sites (SOMER etc.)

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Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#81 - 2013-10-23 14:15:06 UTC
Mara Rinn wrote:


Which means that out of infinity blinks, you will win 1:16. And as Xavier pointed out, in any sample size less than infinity, you will win approximately 1/17th of the blinks, allowing a margin of error. It is entirely possible to lose 45 blinks in a row even with 1:16 odds (though with 16 participants the odds are 1/16th or 1:15, meaning that for every 1 of you there are 15 other participants).

So you are both arguing the same point back and forth, and your differences come down to (apparently intentional) misunderstanding of each other's words.



Except that I can win 100% of infinity blinks even by buying just 1 ticket.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#82 - 2013-10-23 14:16:10 UTC
Charles Panzram wrote:
Mara Rinn wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Xavier Higdon wrote:
Also, can you show me where you found this information regarding dice? It seems a little odd to me.



For the dice...

You have a 6 sided die ok? Numbered 1/2/3/4/5/6. Take that die and roll it.

You have 1:6 chance of landing on ANY number. Right? Right.


Xavier was confused by your confusing reference to a loaded die, not about dice in general.

Murk Paradox wrote:
You mentioned infinity blinks, but that does not matter because each blink is different.

You only need to count 1 blink.

Reset each time.

It's not 1:16 first blink, 1:15 for the second, 1:14, 1:13 and so on.

It's 1:16 each time. No slots are removed after a winner is decided.


Which means that out of infinity blinks, you will win 1:16. And as Xavier pointed out, in any sample size less than infinity, you will win approximately 1/17th of the blinks, allowing a margin of error. It is entirely possible to lose 45 blinks in a row even with 1:16 odds (though with 16 participants the odds are 1/16th or 1:15, meaning that for every 1 of you there are 15 other participants).

So you are both arguing the same point back and forth, and your differences come down to (apparently intentional) misunderstanding of each other's words.



If you buy 1 ticket out of 16, 45 times in a row and lose every times your chances for something like that to occur are ~5.4%
Possible but rare. It gets really interesting if you increase the sample size 99 for example still a pretty small sample size, now chance to loose 99 times in a row are 0.16%.



As long as it is not the exact same % of tickets purchased, then the debunk is sound.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.
Iosue
League of Gentlemen
The Initiative.
#83 - 2013-10-23 16:24:44 UTC
in light of all this, i have a question for CCP.

can i setup a website with links to affiliate GTC sellers and offer an isk reward to all those using my link?
destiny2
Decaying Rocky Odious Non Evil Stupid Inane Nobody
Looking for Trouble
#84 - 2013-10-23 16:37:11 UTC
Another somerblink thread, i think the CSM's should just start locking these, and players who keep makeing them should be banned from posting for a week.
Baali Tekitsu
AQUILA INC
#85 - 2013-10-23 16:40:13 UTC
destiny2 wrote:
Another somerblink thread, i think the CSM's should just start locking these, and players who keep makeing them should be banned from posting for a week.


Yea.... No

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Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe
#86 - 2013-10-23 16:46:48 UTC
destiny2 wrote:
Another somerblink thread, i think the CSM's should just start locking these, and players who keep makeing them should be banned from posting for a week.

yeah

Triggered by: Wars of Sovless Agression, Bending the Knee, Twisting the Knife, Eating Sov Wheaties, Bombless Bombers, Fizzlesov, Interceptor Fleets, Running Away, GhostTime Vuln, Renters, Bombs, Bubbles ?
ISD Ezwal
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#87 - 2013-10-23 23:33:08 UTC  |  Edited by: ISD Ezwal
Thread locked.

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21. Posting regarding RMT (Real Money Trading) is prohibited.

Posts discussing, linking to, or advertising RMT, including but not limited to the sale of in game items, assets, currency, characters or game accounts for real life money are strictly prohibited.

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