These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Out of Pod Experience

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Nosygamer's analysis of indirect RMT via Lottery Sites (SOMER etc.)

First post First post
Author
Previous Topic Next Topic
TigerXtrm
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#61 - 2013-10-22 16:00:38 UTC
Jori McKie wrote:

You didn't read the link did you? It is not like $1,75 per plex. It is buy a GTC via my affilate link and get 200m extra. So more $1,75 per 200m ......


Yes... I get that. It's still the cheapest RMT service I've seen to date. Back in da day when traditional RMT websites were at their high point 200m would cost you like 10 bucks or something.

My YouTube Channel - EVE Tutorials & other game related things!

My Website - Blogs, Livestreams & Forums
Ghost Phius
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#62 - 2013-10-22 16:05:15 UTC
EACCP has no credibility concerning their behind the scenes RMT practices, NONE!!
Prince Kobol
#63 - 2013-10-22 16:38:52 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Prince Kobol wrote:
Infinity Ziona wrote:
Prince Kobol wrote:
TheGunslinger42 wrote:
And it is a surprise to no one that CCP are knowingly allowing RMT for people like somer


Thats because it isn't RMT Big smile

Since you can convert the blinks into isk with 100% if thats true and you can have CCP convert the GTC into plex which convert into isk as well you end up with:

GTC purchase -> Plex -> isk
7 dollars to Somer -> Blinks -> isk

First line legit
Second line RMT

You'll probably say well Somer would get that 7 dollars anyway but they wouldn't because they wouldn't be selling as many GTC without selling the Isk.


The problem is that it is not true.

Once you your 200mil isk credit you have to spend it on blinks and win to get it back.

Can you 100% convert your 200mil credit to 200mil isk.. no.

Even if you manage to blink on all the available slots you still do not get your 200mil back.



Come to my store to buy your 12 packs and receive 1 free scratcher lottery ticket with every purchase!




That would be fine as there is no guarantee I would win the lottery :)

Also quite a few stores were I live do similar things Big smile
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#64 - 2013-10-22 16:40:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Murk Paradox
Frying Doom wrote:
Prince Kobol wrote:


Nope because what you are doing is not chanced base.

As I have said before it is a fine line but there you go.

Also why is it now a problem?

Somer has been running for 3+ now yet all of a sudden its bad?

Its not like they have been hiding in the shadows is it.

Chance based means that if I buy 50% of the tickets I will win 50% of the time. So based on that we will simplify as this is how probability works over large sets of numbers but simplified 50% works as follows. I buy 50% of the tickets to a Raven Navy issue 49,000,000 per blink a total prize of 670,320,000 ISK with 16 slots. You will notice that the total of all blink slots is 784,000,000 isk, so Somer is taking their cut of 113,680,000 isk or 7,105,000 per slot.

the 50% of the Raven Naval Issue tickets costs me 392,000,000 isk but I lose, so I do it again and it costs me another 392,000,000 and I win.

So I am down 784,000,000 isk but win 670,320,000 the money is now sent to me as isk in game.

A lottery based on probability will come out exactly as per the probability its self over a large set of numbers which enough GTC purchasers would be doing especially if they use the smaller lotteries. Always buy 50% of the tickets you will average out to win 50% of the time.

So as I said Somer is RMT, you just seem to mistake a laundering process to be valid method for RMT. It is not it is still RMT.

The amount of time they have been RMTing is irrelevant, it does not make it legitimate.



That's not how chance works.

Chance means you can win 100% of the time, or 0% of the time, regardless of how much % of tickets you buy (atleast 1 and under all).

If I buy 50% of the available tickets, I have half chance to win, and that means, half chance to lose.

Per lottery.

Just because you lose the first does not mean you win the second.

If I had 3/16 tickets for the next 5 lotteries, I can still lose every single one, just like I can win every single one.

And that's only purchasing 3 tickets to a 16 slot raffle.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#65 - 2013-10-22 16:43:22 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Sexy Cakes wrote:
Why is this still under discussion?

CCP is guilty as sin of profiteering and their not apologizing for it.

Get over it.


CCP sold game time for money.

This is a thing that MMO companies do.

If you want to criticise them for letting Somer "profiteer", then have at it, but what CCP did in this case is called "selling a product or service that they provide".



How about rephrasing that they are guilty of allowing a breach of EULA/TOS because they make money off of it?

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#66 - 2013-10-22 16:50:57 UTC
Prince Kobol wrote:


That would be fine as there is no guarantee I would win the lottery :)

Also quite a few stores were I live do similar things Big smile



Yes. Including Somer. What I did, was show that the store(somer) is not the owner(ccp) of the lottery ticket (isk in this case) and what happens is, is you get a free chance to win more cash for spending your cash to get a product(gtc).

Whether you win or not remains to be seen. That's the convincer and the show of money spent.

The difference with any store being able to do it, is that in this case it would be illegal (TOS/EULA breach) to sell lottery tickets, except for at very limited stores.

In the South, they call that the "good ol boy" system.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.
Xavier Higdon
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#67 - 2013-10-22 16:53:11 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Frying Doom wrote:
Prince Kobol wrote:


Nope because what you are doing is not chanced base.

As I have said before it is a fine line but there you go.

Also why is it now a problem?

Somer has been running for 3+ now yet all of a sudden its bad?

Its not like they have been hiding in the shadows is it.

Chance based means that if I buy 50% of the tickets I will win 50% of the time. So based on that we will simplify as this is how probability works over large sets of numbers but simplified 50% works as follows. I buy 50% of the tickets to a Raven Navy issue 49,000,000 per blink a total prize of 670,320,000 ISK with 16 slots. You will notice that the total of all blink slots is 784,000,000 isk, so Somer is taking their cut of 113,680,000 isk or 7,105,000 per slot.

the 50% of the Raven Naval Issue tickets costs me 392,000,000 isk but I lose, so I do it again and it costs me another 392,000,000 and I win.

So I am down 784,000,000 isk but win 670,320,000 the money is now sent to me as isk in game.

A lottery based on probability will come out exactly as per the probability its self over a large set of numbers which enough GTC purchasers would be doing especially if they use the smaller lotteries. Always buy 50% of the tickets you will average out to win 50% of the time.

So as I said Somer is RMT, you just seem to mistake a laundering process to be valid method for RMT. It is not it is still RMT.

The amount of time they have been RMTing is irrelevant, it does not make it legitimate.



That's not how chance works.

Chance means you can win 100% of the time, or 0% of the time, regardless of how much % of tickets you buy (atleast 1 and under all).

If I buy 50% of the available tickets, I have half chance to win, and that means, half chance to lose.


Actually its much more complex. If you buy half of the tickets in an infinite number of blinks you'll win half of the time. The moment you stop doing so, your chance of winning is 0%. And then you have to take into account that each blink is its own game of chance, meaning that using any number of blinks below infinity is statistically irrelevant. Generally on games of chance odds are worked out by simulating the game millions, billions or even trillions of times. This is because statistical anomalies, like someone buying 1 ticket on 12 separate blinks and winning all 12, happen. The reason people so often see an imbalance is because we have a hard time grasping infinity. And so, when someone buys half the tickets for a Rorq and it goes to the guy that only bought one, they see it not as the anomaly it is but rather as a rigged blink.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#68 - 2013-10-22 17:02:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Murk Paradox
Xavier Higdon wrote:


Actually its much more complex. If you buy half of the tickets in an infinite number of blinks you'll win half of the time. The moment you stop doing so, your chance of winning is 0%. And then you have to take into account that each blink is its own game of chance, meaning that using any number of blinks below infinity is statistically irrelevant. Generally on games of chance odds are worked out by simulating the game millions, billions or even trillions of times. This is because statistical anomalies, like someone buying 1 ticket on 12 separate blinks and winning all 12, happen. The reason people so often see an imbalance is because we have a hard time grasping infinity. And so, when someone buys half the tickets for a Rorq and it goes to the guy that only bought one, they see it not as the anomaly it is but rather as a rigged blink.



You're right and wrong at the same time. With blinks, each lottery is it's own, as you said. But every slot has it's own set % of chance to land per blink.

It's not like dice that have statistically proven to land on a 3 more than a 1. This is digital.

Regardless of the % of tickets bought, you have the same equal chance of winning per slot you buy.

That number does not change over time.

Otherwise you'd be saying that 1 out of every 16 blinks I would have won something, not the 0 and 45 that I currently am.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.
Scharena
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#69 - 2013-10-22 17:10:27 UTC
What does this all mean for the little guy who unsuspectingly got attracted by the Markee Dragon offer? Are they likely to get punished for participating? Because I mean loads of people probably have used this offer. This is why we need a CCP response that is concise and to the point.
Sexy Cakes
Have A Seat
#70 - 2013-10-22 17:43:15 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Sexy Cakes wrote:
Why is this still under discussion?

CCP is guilty as sin of profiteering and their not apologizing for it.

Get over it.


CCP sold game time for money.

This is a thing that MMO companies do.

If you want to criticise them for letting Somer "profiteer", then have at it, but what CCP did in this case is called "selling a product or service that they provide".


Still not quite getting it and not giving up eh Malcanis?

"Profiteering is a pejorative term for the act of making a profit by methods considered unethical."

What SOMER is doing is what's under observation here and CCP gave them a big old pat on the back for doing so.

Not today spaghetti.
Xavier Higdon
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#71 - 2013-10-22 18:11:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Xavier Higdon
Murk Paradox wrote:
Xavier Higdon wrote:


Actually its much more complex. If you buy half of the tickets in an infinite number of blinks you'll win half of the time. The moment you stop doing so, your chance of winning is 0%. And then you have to take into account that each blink is its own game of chance, meaning that using any number of blinks below infinity is statistically irrelevant. Generally on games of chance odds are worked out by simulating the game millions, billions or even trillions of times. This is because statistical anomalies, like someone buying 1 ticket on 12 separate blinks and winning all 12, happen. The reason people so often see an imbalance is because we have a hard time grasping infinity. And so, when someone buys half the tickets for a Rorq and it goes to the guy that only bought one, they see it not as the anomaly it is but rather as a rigged blink.



You're right and wrong at the same time. With blinks, each lottery is it's own, as you said. But every slot has it's own set % of chance to land per blink.

It's not like dice that have statistically proven to land on a 3 more than a 1. This is digital.

Regardless of the % of tickets bought, you have the same equal chance of winning per slot you buy.

That number does not change over time.

Otherwise you'd be saying that 1 out of every 16 blinks I would have won something, not the 0 and 45 that I currently am.


No, I'm saying you will win 1/16th of infinity blinks. But you have to play an infinite number of blinks. 45 is a few short of infinity.

Also, can you show me where you found this information regarding dice? It seems a little odd to me.

And to be a bit more technical, the fact that SOMERblink is a "digital" program, there is a 100% guarantee of the outcome the moment the program decides there should be an outcome. The fact is that those random number generators you've heard about don't exist. They are actually psuedo-random number generators. That means that in an attempt to make the outcome appear random programmers often create elaborate algorithms to mask what the outcome will be. This is because a computer has no ability to calculate a non-specific outcome. It can only say ticket 1 wins, it cannot say ticket 1 may win. A PRNG allows a mathematician to devise an algorithm that takes a seed number and puts it through an equation, or series of equations, to decide what the outcome will be. This makes it impossible to predict the outcome unless you know and understand the algorithm. To the average observer it would appear random, but in reality the outcome was decided before the first ticket was bought.
Argus Sorn
Star Frontiers
Brotherhood of Spacers
#72 - 2013-10-22 18:34:20 UTC
I have posted on this extensively in the "main" SOMER thread, and so will keep my comments short. People need to stop looking at this from a player perspective. It is not the player who buys isk that is the root of the RMT problem, but the person who profits from selling isk. This results in a couple distinctions:

1) The GTC is not RMT in this regard. Yes you pay cash for PLEX, and those plex can be sold for isk, but at no point is game currency or items converted into profit for anyone (other than CCP) and even that profit is market regulated.

2) SOMERblink assumes no "risk" or "chance" in these auctions. They basically "sell" an item to a bunch of players who each pay an equal share and then randomly determine who gets to keep it. Or, they may be selling ISK if you take the cash out. In which case think about the ridiculousness of a bunch of players paying 1.3 bil to get 1 bil, but yeah - that's what happens.

Because of this the 'random' nature does not prevent it from being RMT. If everyone who bids on the auction uses their "blink isk" obtained from a GTC purchase, then they have converted 100% of that item into cash. If 50% use "blink isk" then they have converted half of the value of that item into cash.

The 'chance' factor doesn't impact the RMT side at all.

As for the exchange rate, it is just a matter of scale. If you were doing this with large amounts of isk, you'd want the rate to be low enough to escape CCP's notice or concern. I and others have estimated the cash value of even a portion of SOMERblink's profits to be well over 3 million USD. This amount even provides a great deal of room for promotions (at EVE Vegas they just gave out what was reported to be 300 billion isk in plex and that only amounted to less than 1% of their total isk assets).

The key to "evil" of RMT is the conversion of large amounts of in game assets into cash and that is exactly what SOMER is doing, even they are doing it slowly - that's secondary. It's still RMT.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#73 - 2013-10-22 18:43:46 UTC
Xavier Higdon wrote:

No, I'm saying you will win 1/16th of infinity blinks. But you have to play an infinite number of blinks. 45 is a few short of infinity.

Also, can you show me where you found this information regarding dice? It seems a little odd to me.

And to be a bit more technical, the fact that SOMERblink is a "digital" program, there is a 100% guarantee of the outcome the moment the program decides there should be an outcome. The fact is that those random number generators you've heard about don't exist. They are actually psuedo-random number generators. That means that in an attempt to make the outcome appear random programmers often create elaborate algorithms to mask what the outcome will be. This is because a computer has no ability to calculate a non-specific outcome. It can only say ticket 1 wins, it cannot say ticket 1 may win. A PRNG allows a mathematician to devise an algorithm that takes a seed number and puts it through an equation, or series of equations, to decide what the outcome will be. This makes it impossible to predict the outcome unless you know and understand the algorithm. To the average observer it would appear random, but in reality the outcome was decided before the first ticket was bought.



For the dice...

You have a 6 sided die ok? Numbered 1/2/3/4/5/6. Take that die and roll it.

You have 1:6 chance of landing on ANY number. Right? Right.

Now, roll it again.

Same odds. Over and over. Does not mean out of 6 times it will land on "YOUR" number once. That's the discrepancy with saying "if you buy 50% of the tickets you will win 50% of the time" because that is simply not true.

If you had a raffle of 100 lotteries, and you had a pool of 100 numbers, and each lottery only pulled 1 number, then yes, buying half of the numbers would guarantee you a 50% win.

But this isn't the case.

You mentioned infinity blinks, but that does not matter because each blink is different.

You only need to count 1 blink.

Reset each time.

It's not 1:16 first blink, 1:15 for the second, 1:14, 1:13 and so on.

It's 1:16 each time. No slots are removed after a winner is decided.

Much like the dice analogy.

You can take that 6 sided die and roll it 10 times and have a chance to roll a 6 EVERY time. Just like you can win EVERY blink as long as you buy atleast 1 ticket.

There is no set algorithm to a RNG because there's no variable formula when the fields get reset each time.

Otherwise the same number would always win.

So tell me, why would a RNG system pick the #4 instead of #2 if it does not know who it will select?

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.
Kolvin Trask
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#74 - 2013-10-22 20:34:06 UTC
Well interesting stuff
Frying Doom
#75 - 2013-10-22 20:46:42 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Xavier Higdon wrote:

No, I'm saying you will win 1/16th of infinity blinks. But you have to play an infinite number of blinks. 45 is a few short of infinity.

Also, can you show me where you found this information regarding dice? It seems a little odd to me.

And to be a bit more technical, the fact that SOMERblink is a "digital" program, there is a 100% guarantee of the outcome the moment the program decides there should be an outcome. The fact is that those random number generators you've heard about don't exist. They are actually psuedo-random number generators. That means that in an attempt to make the outcome appear random programmers often create elaborate algorithms to mask what the outcome will be. This is because a computer has no ability to calculate a non-specific outcome. It can only say ticket 1 wins, it cannot say ticket 1 may win. A PRNG allows a mathematician to devise an algorithm that takes a seed number and puts it through an equation, or series of equations, to decide what the outcome will be. This makes it impossible to predict the outcome unless you know and understand the algorithm. To the average observer it would appear random, but in reality the outcome was decided before the first ticket was bought.



For the dice...

You have a 6 sided die ok? Numbered 1/2/3/4/5/6. Take that die and roll it.

You have 1:6 chance of landing on ANY number. Right? Right.

Now, roll it again.

Same odds. Over and over. Does not mean out of 6 times it will land on "YOUR" number once. That's the discrepancy with saying "if you buy 50% of the tickets you will win 50% of the time" because that is simply not true.

If you had a raffle of 100 lotteries, and you had a pool of 100 numbers, and each lottery only pulled 1 number, then yes, buying half of the numbers would guarantee you a 50% win.

But this isn't the case.

You mentioned infinity blinks, but that does not matter because each blink is different.

You only need to count 1 blink.

Reset each time.

It's not 1:16 first blink, 1:15 for the second, 1:14, 1:13 and so on.

It's 1:16 each time. No slots are removed after a winner is decided.

Much like the dice analogy.

You can take that 6 sided die and roll it 10 times and have a chance to roll a 6 EVERY time. Just like you can win EVERY blink as long as you buy atleast 1 ticket.

There is no set algorithm to a RNG because there's no variable formula when the fields get reset each time.

Otherwise the same number would always win.

So tell me, why would a RNG system pick the #4 instead of #2 if it does not know who it will select?


If you roll that dice 10000 times you will end up getting a six, 1/6 of the time.

Welcome to mathematics.

So if you buy 50% of the auctions over a large enough sample you will end up winning 50% of the time, it really is not that hard.

Any spelling, grammatical and punctuation errors are because frankly, I don't care!!
Xeen Du'Wang
Perkone
Caldari State
#76 - 2013-10-22 20:48:53 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Prince Kobol wrote:
The problem is that it is not true.

Once you your 200mil isk credit you have to spend it on blinks and win to get it back.

Can you 100% convert your 200mil credit to 200mil isk.. no.

Even if you manage to blink on all the available slots you still do not get your 200mil back.
As Frying Doom said above.
Blink pay out 80% so by giving you 200m credit, they are giving you 160m isk. If they wanted you to have 200m isk, they'd give you 250m credit.
I really don;t know how you can continue to try to tell us that blink don't RMT.
Let's super simplify for you to get it:

I've simplified the figures so you might understand
This is the state beforehand:

Blink RL wallet $0
Your RL wallet $35
Markee RL wallet: $0
Blink ISK wallet: 1200m (0m reserved for credit)
Your Credit: 0m
Your ISK wallet: 0m

You buy a GTC for $35. Markee gets that and pays somer, let's just say $5 for simplicity. Somer give you 200m credit. This makes the following state:

Blink RL wallet $5
Your RL wallet $0
Markee RL wallet: $30
Blink ISK wallet: 1200m (200m reserved for credit)
Your Credit: 200m
Your ISK wallet: 0m

Now you play blink, buying all of the tickets for a 200m lottery with a 160m prize. You win 160m isk. Now it looks like this:

Blink RL wallet $5
Your RL wallet $0
Markee RL wallet: $30
Blink ISK wallet: 1040m (0m reserved for credit)
Your Credit: 0m
Your ISK wallet: 160m

Do you see how blink have decreased their isk wallet, while increasing yours, and increased their RL wallet? That's RMT. They paid you isk to engage in a transaction which game them real money.
Just because they jammed the extra step in the middle that has their own made up "credit" currency does not stop it being RMT. They get sales which net them cash by "giving" out their isk. The only difference between them and a straight up RMTer that gets banned every day is the terminology.


Quoted so you guys discussing chance based stuff can see that it is not required to gamble and get your ISK.
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#77 - 2013-10-22 20:48:59 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Xavier Higdon wrote:
Also, can you show me where you found this information regarding dice? It seems a little odd to me.



For the dice...

You have a 6 sided die ok? Numbered 1/2/3/4/5/6. Take that die and roll it.

You have 1:6 chance of landing on ANY number. Right? Right.


Xavier was confused by your confusing reference to a loaded die, not about dice in general.

Murk Paradox wrote:
You mentioned infinity blinks, but that does not matter because each blink is different.

You only need to count 1 blink.

Reset each time.

It's not 1:16 first blink, 1:15 for the second, 1:14, 1:13 and so on.

It's 1:16 each time. No slots are removed after a winner is decided.


Which means that out of infinity blinks, you will win 1:16. And as Xavier pointed out, in any sample size less than infinity, you will win approximately 1/17th of the blinks, allowing a margin of error. It is entirely possible to lose 45 blinks in a row even with 1:16 odds (though with 16 participants the odds are 1/16th or 1:15, meaning that for every 1 of you there are 15 other participants).

So you are both arguing the same point back and forth, and your differences come down to (apparently intentional) misunderstanding of each other's words.

Day 0 Advice for New Players
Frying Doom
#78 - 2013-10-22 20:49:16 UTC
March rabbit wrote:
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
Sexy Cakes wrote:
Why is this still under discussion?

CCP is guilty as sin of profiteering and their not apologizing for it.

Get over it.


So when TMC, En24, and just about any blogger with a website sets up their own competing GTC referral / gambling site, that will be OK as well.

as long as they stay inside EULA/ToS i'm ok with it.

It is a shame Somer is not staying inside the rules for ETC/GTC and are in breach of the EULA then isn't it? Lol

Any spelling, grammatical and punctuation errors are because frankly, I don't care!!
Charles Panzram
Doomheim
#79 - 2013-10-22 21:23:53 UTC
Mara Rinn wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Xavier Higdon wrote:
Also, can you show me where you found this information regarding dice? It seems a little odd to me.



For the dice...

You have a 6 sided die ok? Numbered 1/2/3/4/5/6. Take that die and roll it.

You have 1:6 chance of landing on ANY number. Right? Right.


Xavier was confused by your confusing reference to a loaded die, not about dice in general.

Murk Paradox wrote:
You mentioned infinity blinks, but that does not matter because each blink is different.

You only need to count 1 blink.

Reset each time.

It's not 1:16 first blink, 1:15 for the second, 1:14, 1:13 and so on.

It's 1:16 each time. No slots are removed after a winner is decided.


Which means that out of infinity blinks, you will win 1:16. And as Xavier pointed out, in any sample size less than infinity, you will win approximately 1/17th of the blinks, allowing a margin of error. It is entirely possible to lose 45 blinks in a row even with 1:16 odds (though with 16 participants the odds are 1/16th or 1:15, meaning that for every 1 of you there are 15 other participants).

So you are both arguing the same point back and forth, and your differences come down to (apparently intentional) misunderstanding of each other's words.



If you buy 1 ticket out of 16, 45 times in a row and lose every times your chances for something like that to occur are ~5.4%
Possible but rare. It gets really interesting if you increase the sample size 99 for example still a pretty small sample size, now chance to loose 99 times in a row are 0.16%.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#80 - 2013-10-23 14:13:32 UTC
Frying Doom wrote:

If you roll that dice 10000 times you will end up getting a six, 1/6 of the time.

Welcome to mathematics.

So if you buy 50% of the auctions over a large enough sample you will end up winning 50% of the time, it really is not that hard.



That is incorrect. Dice don't use a round robin system.

If you roll a die 10,000 times, you can statistically roll a 6 10,000 times.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.