These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Crime & Punishment

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

My research project for work, into SOMER Blink - Loved every minute.

First post
Author
Ivan Krividus
Quenched Disorder
#121 - 2013-09-24 00:19:41 UTC
They make it so that you can make a profit off of the early achievements with BLINK, and after the free ISK goes away you're left playing thinking that you will continue to make money, without realizing that all the net profit was due to that free ISK at the start. As for me, im working to the "win 1 blink a week" achievement, so i can cash it in, and walk away with a profit.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
#122 - 2013-09-25 07:42:35 UTC
virm pasuul wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
So you take an accusation with utterly no evidence...
Still though, BLINK = RMT ISK laundering.


You don't have a problem with hypocracy do you?
Nope, not at all. :D

Besides, I have evidence, it's called history.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Notthespai
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#123 - 2013-09-26 22:28:01 UTC
Lightbringer wrote:
I did my first 50mil as a test on an orca, i won, i converted it into blink Credit, won a revelation, took the ISK put 600mil back in, win a Revelation, took the isk, 600mil back in Won a Naglfar.



around 7 Billion Isk ontop of my original 50million ISK, damn i feel scammed.



The **** you doing playing Somer go play the lottery you stupid **** ... thats just dumb luck though.
Logical Chaos
Very Italian People
The Initiative.
#124 - 2013-09-27 10:07:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Logical Chaos
So yeah, just read through this threadnaught.

There is one thing I would like to throw to all those people who say:
"Why should somer scam via shill accounts and risk their already good and steady profit?"

Simple thought: What would you do with 100b ISK ingame? What would you do with 500b? What would you do with 1T? 4T?
Simple answer: At some point, more money does not buy you more enjoyment. 100b ISK is not too much anymore if you want to have a Titan for example. 500b is a different story. You can easily buy a kickass Character + Titan + pimp PvP-ships for like forever.

So at some point you want to profit IRL. Since eve offers this possibility like any MMO out there. So it is indeed entirely possible that they are involved in RMT.

I don't know maybe if you buy ISK somewhere you get told to register with somer and play a few blinks, I haven't tried and don't care to do.

By the way OP: That's what you should have done, although it is obviously against the EULA.

And what makes somer not trustable? Back in the day super lotteries (those ceased to exist since somer is in the market I think) have mostly used Chribba's lottery site that was kind of open-source if I remember correct. But even Chribba could have added Shill accounts since everything is on his server. Same thing with somer.

And as pointed out in this thread: It is easy to add code that lets you pick people for increased winning changes or even automate this process.

But there is no way that somer can ever provide proof that they are legitimate. Published code is just published code, no one can guarantee that the same stuff runs on their servers.
Cage Man
Comms Black
Pandemic Horde
#125 - 2013-10-01 00:48:20 UTC
OMG!!! I knew it was true.. I have also been scammed..

Isk deposited: 1,002,000,000
Value of wins: 3,740,001,375

Wins I don't think include the Sin, vindi, 10 x canes (promo stack) and any other promo's I took out of blink.

If someone would please deposit another 1 bil into my account so i can prove I have been scammed by repeating my steps it would greatly be appreciated.

Cheers,
Cage
Scam Tester
Rengor Elongur
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#126 - 2013-10-01 14:00:58 UTC
Seven Koskanaiken wrote:
Victoria Sin wrote:
Of course it's a fix. The house is also betting (via alts), so the house wins a good number of its own blinks. That doesn't mean you don't also have a chance of winning as the odds are still 1/8 for the small stuff and 1/16 for the big stuff (sometimes other odds) but over the course of time the house will always win and your account will regress to the mean, which is lower than break-even (I don't know what it actually is).

Listen people, don't gamble your hard earned isk on Sommerblink. It's addictive and eventually it's going to clean you out.


Looking at a firetail blink with a buyout of 10800000 and a blink of 2000000 the payout is 5.4 to 1.

So e = (5.4*(1/8))+(-1*(7/8)) = -0.2 or 20%.

A rorqual blink has buyout 2,742,280,000 and a blink of 191,500,000, a payout of 14.32 to 1.

e = (14.32*(1/16))+(-1*(15/16)) = -0.0425 or 4.25%.

The big blinks seem to be more profitable (or technically, less unprofitable) to play than the small blinks. Perhaps each blink has an individual edge, in which case someone can write a script to find the best blinks to play. SOMER's edges are quite high though. The house edge on a roulette wheel is only 2.7%. Basically, SOMERblink is a game for suckers.


You have to consider the achievements also. There are some for "Blinks won" / "Ships won" and "Blinks played"

If you add them add they come to a "lot" if you try to achieve some of the lower Tier achievements in an optimal way. My best (non-mathematically verified) gut feeling is that the first few blinks have a slightly positive ev. (But thats just in order to get you hooked, you can only loose Long term... But that should be clear to anyone)

Also dont be so harsh with the OP... He did some research in order to help the comunity. On a related note, he can send me some billions in order to try my new ISK-Loosing Service (Not public yet, but it offers in game medals for every Billion lost and I offer a 10% Bonus for each Billion lost! so loose 10 Billion and make 1 Billion Profit...)



Sir Prometeus
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#127 - 2013-10-10 12:50:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Prometeus
The promos in this lottery makes me wonder about the balance of the income and outcome they have. Of course, every blink gives them money. For example, a ship which costs 10m, with 2m ticket and a total of 8 tickets. 8x2 = 16, so they are winning 6 million for that type of Blink ALWAYS. There's no doubt about that.

However, in the promos, the prize can be 5 times the cost of all the tickets (tokens) Therefore they are ALWAYS losing money with each promo. Let's assume that each player only puts money to get tokens (the prizes for spending that money in blinks contribute to reduce the cost, or not), and all of those players don't put more money until they have spent all the tokens.

The only chance to give them a way to win "at least" 5 times more than what they give in promo's prizes is, that there are people who play blinks continuously and don't spend all the tokens.

PS And all that, assuming it's not a colossal scam. I'm just playing because a friend of mine does that and he's winning by the moment.


EDIT: Well, it seems there's a rule that says "Players can only participate in a blink either if they have played a regular blink in 48h, or added 1b ISK to their blink account"

Anyway, let's supose that everybody is adding 1 billion, OR participating in blinks each 48h with the money they have whilst they click on every promo.
Erotica 1
Krypteia Operations
#128 - 2013-10-10 14:13:00 UTC

I am a close personal friend of one of the "suspects" the op lists. That person has identified patterns and plays those patterns on a regular basis for an overall consistent profit (along with plenty of losses, though fewer than wins). Anyone can identify these patterns if they play enough or watch enough.

If you don't want to risk the isk but still want to win big, there is always my game in my bio.

See Bio for isk doubling rules. If you didn't read bio, chances are you funded those who did.

Batelle
Filthy Peasants
#129 - 2013-10-10 15:23:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Batelle
Its a lottery. Even if it was a legit lottery with no manipulation, the expected return on your investment is well below 1, and again, this is assuming the guys running it aren't manipulating the chances to win in order to promote certain behavior. So why people put their isk into it has always been beyond me. But now CCP has given them an actual reason to give them your isk.

Claiming to have "figured out" blink is like claiming to know how to beat roulette or any other RL lottery system.

"**CCP is changing policy, and has asked that we discontinue the bonus credit program after November 7th. So until then, enjoy a super-bonus of 1B Blink Credit for each 60-day GTC you buy!"**

Never forget.

Sir Prometeus
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#130 - 2013-10-11 10:59:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Prometeus
Batelle wrote:
Its a lottery. Even if it was a legit lottery with no manipulation, the expected return on your investment is well below 1, and again, this is assuming the guys running it aren't manipulating the chances to win in order to promote certain behavior. So why people put their isk into it has always been beyond me. But now CCP has given them an actual reason to give them your isk.

Claiming to have "figured out" blink is like claiming to know how to beat roulette or any other RL lottery system.


True, but what about the promos? The prize is usually equal or higher than the total amount of bets. Sometimes it is lower, but just a tiny bit (it can be 1/4 lower than the total amount of money in tokens, but when it's higher, it can be 5 or 10 times higher or so, and there aren't as many "lower" prizes to compensate that)

PS Even with the 48h limitation, you can pay only 2m for a Firetail blink, and there are many more than 2 promos each day
ry ry
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#131 - 2013-10-16 10:38:48 UTC  |  Edited by: ry ry
Batelle wrote:
Claiming to have "figured out" blink is like claiming to know how to beat roulette or any other RL lottery system.


haven't both of these been done already?

roulette, use a laser to get the ball's speed and calculate it's decaying orbit. accuracy probably in the region of which 8th of the wheel it'll land in.

lottery, find a smaller or provincial lottery that has rolled over several times, if the potential payout for having every winning combination of tickets is greater than the total number of combinations * ticket price, buy all tickets

so yeah, i'd say they're pretty much figured out.
Fel'ina Twilight
Tr0pa de elite.
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#132 - 2013-10-16 13:09:33 UTC
To me it took 5 minutes to do the math and find out that I cannot win on Blink.

It is a money sink. That is why CCP likes them so much. CCP loves money sinks.

Aesheera
Doomheim
#133 - 2013-10-17 09:22:36 UTC
Cipio Alduin wrote:
Well it's nice to know that when i choose to share some work with the eve community

I simply get trolled and abused

How apt and immature

Reasons for you being trolled and abused:
Lack of proof - check.
Lack of constructive content - check.
Trying to present a gamer crowd with the 'news' Lotteries make their holders money - check.


***

Here is my extensive research on SOMER Blink.


  • SOMER makes money.
  • Players win and lose.
  • Like it? Play it.
  • Dont like it? Dont play it.





  • - I think my passion is misinterpreted as anger sometimes. And I don't think people are ready for the message that I'm delivering, and delivering with a sense of violent love.

    Rico Minali
    The Scope
    Gallente Federation
    #134 - 2013-10-17 13:11:33 UTC
    I recently worked for 62 hours straight producing a report for my top secret government work (its secret so don't tell anyone who I am).

    The results of my work are below, read very carefully, I know it is very complicated but you REALLY need to know this:

    Eve is a terrible game and CCP ARE MAKING MONEY FROM YOU PLAYING IT!

    Trust me, I almost know what I'm doing.