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CCP, I'm so on to you. (Complex Running)
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Red Crown
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2013-10-10 19:43:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Red Crown
I'm part of a complex running service for a certain coalition. As is such, I've been grinding through dozens of Fleet Staging Points (9/10 equivalent) and 10/10s as of late. Me and my pals keep track of our drops, and we've noticed an unmistakable trend:

Drops have been getting worse.

They have progressed from an average of the Overseer's Personal Effects + 2 items, down to 1 item (usually a hardener), and finally down to nothing but the OPE. In fact, out of 10+ complexes I've run in the last 3 days, 8 have dropped the OPE only. I'm not alone in this - one of us got 4 OPE only in a row. An older complex runner reported once getting 16 OPE only drops in a row.

This is absolutely absurd - if you assume that the drops are semi-randomized, with more valuable items being rarer. CCP, I'm going out on a limb here and saying that they aren't. Somehow, the server measures how much loot has been paid out to an individual character and closes off the funnel once they've gotten too much. Why? Probably an attempt to ensure that the markets aren't flooded with what is supposed to be rare deadspace gear.

C/D?

Seriously though, if this is the case - or if there is some similar system - us players have a right to know. We assume that when we dedicate billions in assets and hours of time to complexes we have a fair, somewhat randomized chance of getting X loot. This presents a moving target, only we don't know the target is moving.
Zappity
New Eden Tank Testing Services
#2 - 2013-10-10 19:47:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Zappity
So to sum up, n=10.

Zappity's Adventures for a taste of lowsec and nullsec.
ShahFluffers
Ice Fire Warriors
#3 - 2013-10-10 19:48:09 UTC
The tinfoil hat is strong here.

How did you Veterans start?
Red Crown
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2013-10-10 19:59:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Red Crown
ShahFluffers wrote:
The tinfoil hat is strong here.


Is it? Frankly, it would strike me as more unlikely that this was a truly random pattern. Even if the chance of getting an OPE only drop was fully 50/50 (and it isn't), you'd still be stretching getting more than a handful in a row. To put it in perspective, that'd be flipping a coin and getting tails 8 times in a row. The 16 in a row one of us experienced would bear the probability of 1 in 65,356.
Takari
Promised Victorious Entropy
#5 - 2013-10-10 20:02:21 UTC
Red Crown wrote:
ShahFluffers wrote:
The tinfoil hat is strong here.


Is it? Frankly, it would strike me as more unlikely that this was a truly random pattern. Even if the chance of getting an OPE only drop was fully 50/50 (and it isn't), you'd still be stretching getting more than a handful in a row. To put it in perspective, that'd be flipping a coin and getting tails 8 times in a row. The 16 in a row one of us experienced would bear the probability of 1 in 65,356.


but at the same time, the odds of getting tails on the 17th time as well is still 50/50

"Roll the dice, don't think twice. This is the way of things. Welcome to EVE." ~ CCP Falcon

"Good luck, shoot straight and don't back down." - Serendipity Lost
Red Crown
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2013-10-10 20:05:50 UTC
Takari wrote:
Red Crown wrote:
ShahFluffers wrote:
The tinfoil hat is strong here.


Is it? Frankly, it would strike me as more unlikely that this was a truly random pattern. Even if the chance of getting an OPE only drop was fully 50/50 (and it isn't), you'd still be stretching getting more than a handful in a row. To put it in perspective, that'd be flipping a coin and getting tails 8 times in a row. The 16 in a row one of us experienced would bear the probability of 1 in 65,356.


but at the same time, the odds of getting tails on the 17th time as well is still 50/50



The odds of any individual coin flip going one way or another is indeed 50/50. However, the odds that a chain of a single result will continue decrease as you increase the sample size.
Omnathious Deninard
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2013-10-10 20:14:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Omnathious Deninard
Except each site would be considered an individual "coin flip"
There is no "jackpot" algorithm set for each player. All loot is randomly selected when the site is activated, and resets during DT.
Edit: inserted NO in before "jackpot"

If you don't follow the rules, neither will I.
HiddenPorpoise
Jarlhettur's Drop
United Federation of Conifers
#8 - 2013-10-10 20:15:52 UTC
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
The odds of any order of 16 drops is 1 in 65,000.
Red Crown
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2013-10-10 20:24:03 UTC
HiddenPorpoise wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
The odds of any order of 16 drops is 1 in 65,000.



The Gambler's Fallacy refers to the idea that a win eventually has to happen in a pure numbers game. It's the idea that if the odds of a win are 1 in 2, then you "must" win after you lose one. What I'm seeing here is evidence that the nature of the game changes the better you do at it. The drops are also very clearly weighted - it wouldn't make sense for an Explosive Shield Hardener to be as common as a Shield Boost Amplifier.
STush T
House of Tuachair
#10 - 2013-10-10 20:24:45 UTC
16 in a row is possible, but rare enough to make the op have a point. Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but unless there was a crap ton of confirmed numbers, it would be almost impossible to call CCP out on this. CCP knowing this, could easily adjust the randomness, there by making isk just that much more difficult. There is no quality control, or guarantee that CCP is actually doing what it says. Its only check are the players themselves doing something like Burn Jita, and you cant get that kind of organization unless your case is undeniable. So to the OP, goodluck, but most likely your just going to have to eat it on this one.
Zappity
New Eden Tank Testing Services
#11 - 2013-10-10 20:29:50 UTC
If you want to know get everyone in the CFC to accurately record their drops for a month. Maybe then you will have adequate numbers to produce a statistically significant calculation.

At the moment, n=10 plus a dubious third party story. Pathetic.

Zappity's Adventures for a taste of lowsec and nullsec.
Chinicata Shihari
Perkone
Caldari State
#12 - 2013-10-10 20:33:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Chinicata Shihari
The 16 OSEs i got was across Mazes and FSPs. I think it was 9 FSPs and 7 Mazes if i remember correctly. I believe it is all luck. Recently i have been getting awesome drops.

It is all luck.

I have spreadsheets to back it up but i think it is all just a myth that CCP 'rig' your drops. They fluctuate, some days are awesome other just aren't the best.
Red Crown
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#13 - 2013-10-10 20:38:28 UTC
Chinicata Shihari wrote:
The 16 OSEs i got was across Mazes and FSPs. I think it was 9 FSPs and 7 Mazes if i remember correctly. I believe it is all luck. Recently i have been getting awesome drops.

It is all luck.

I have spreadsheets to back it up but i think it is all just a myth that CCP 'rig' your drops. They fluctuate, some days are awesome other just aren't the best.


I respectfully disagree. There absolutely is such a thing as an off day, but 16 complexes in a row dropping the absolute minimum drop suggests that there is some kind of reactive element to the loot system.
Chinicata Shihari
Perkone
Caldari State
#14 - 2013-10-10 20:44:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Chinicata Shihari
Red Crown wrote:
Chinicata Shihari wrote:
The 16 OSEs i got was across Mazes and FSPs. I think it was 9 FSPs and 7 Mazes if i remember correctly. I believe it is all luck. Recently i have been getting awesome drops.

It is all luck.

I have spreadsheets to back it up but i think it is all just a myth that CCP 'rig' your drops. They fluctuate, some days are awesome other just aren't the best.


I respectfully disagree. There absolutely is such a thing as an off day, but 16 complexes in a row dropping the absolute minimum drop suggests that there is some kind of reactive element to the loot system.


Looking at my spreadsheet you can see a clear pattern of how the loot drops change. I will make you a graph to show this now.

EDIT: Graph was too much effort
NinjaStyle
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#15 - 2013-10-10 20:54:37 UTC
Takari wrote:
Red Crown wrote:
ShahFluffers wrote:
The tinfoil hat is strong here.


Is it? Frankly, it would strike me as more unlikely that this was a truly random pattern. Even if the chance of getting an OPE only drop was fully 50/50 (and it isn't), you'd still be stretching getting more than a handful in a row. To put it in perspective, that'd be flipping a coin and getting tails 8 times in a row. The 16 in a row one of us experienced would bear the probability of 1 in 65,356.


but at the same time, the odds of getting tails on the 17th time as well is still 50/50



your an idiot at math and should go away
Chinicata Shihari
Perkone
Caldari State
#16 - 2013-10-10 21:01:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Chinicata Shihari
NinjaStyle wrote:
Takari wrote:
Red Crown wrote:
ShahFluffers wrote:
The tinfoil hat is strong here.


Is it? Frankly, it would strike me as more unlikely that this was a truly random pattern. Even if the chance of getting an OPE only drop was fully 50/50 (and it isn't), you'd still be stretching getting more than a handful in a row. To put it in perspective, that'd be flipping a coin and getting tails 8 times in a row. The 16 in a row one of us experienced would bear the probability of 1 in 65,356.


but at the same time, the odds of getting tails on the 17th time as well is still 50/50



your an idiot at math and should go away


Technically his math holds some grounds. These events have no effect on each other and so the chance of getting an OSE drop is 50/50.
Donbe Scurred
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#17 - 2013-10-10 21:25:06 UTC
Obligatory: R is R
Red Crown
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#18 - 2013-10-10 21:26:44 UTC
My hypothesis is that the events do have some unknown manner of effect on each other, so that math doesn't apply.