Market Discussions

Speculation on hi-sec POCOs seems to be sending prices northwards...

P4s will follow shorty. If only I had more ISK to pour in..

Looks like the Winter Expansion speculation has begun.

as always the news breaks when i'm at work...yippie

ah well...i'll get some extra POS fuel before it starts getting to extreme

I second that.Because the owners will want as many people using THEIR poco people will offer lower taxes so that everyone uses their poco.Also i don't know how many systems eve has but capturing all cos in all systems is absurd job its gonna take months before every co is player owned.But for a large alliance who knows maybe not so hard

Takes as long as a small POS, depending on how small the corp, it's a few hours at most.

The advantages of an organized group setting up a PILRD type alliance where they allow 0% tax is actually greater than renting sov space, as each planet can hold unlimited numbers, unlike sov space. Would you pay 1B/month to have 4 factory planets one jump from Jita at 0% tax? I think a lot of people would.

Actually yes I have and it is possible if time consuming in a single battleship.

PI Item's price will go up, for several reasons:

> more demand because more and more COs get nuked and replaced by POCOs, and because new structures are being added by CCP and some of those are likely to be quite popular (personal hangar anyone)?
> less supply due to disruption over PI production hubs
> speculation around rubicon's release date and speculation each and every time big alliances announce a blockade on PI planets

While I don't see prices skyrocketing out of control in the long term, I can imagine a spike around the time of rubicon's release and the prices falling slowly for at least a couple of months afterwards and I guess prices will remain 20-30% higher than they are now in the long run.

I foresee this scenario because, while it is true that there are too many COs in higsec and not all of them are worth controlling, organized group of players just need to acquire and keep control on a bunch of POCOs to effectively influence the price.

Much part of PI production boils down into producing P4 items and then building Player Owned infrastructures from those. This is a very time-consuming process and is best done in solar systems with 4-6 desert or temperate planets and close to market hubs.

Solar systems like Sobaseki, for example, and there are not that many like that.

The main reason while this partial blockade will work is the necessity to import PI-materials of lower tier into the planet and then exporting P4 items to stations for either production or shipment to a market hub.

This is a time consuming task if carried out on several planets in different solar systems, and especially because both raw materials and finished goods have high volumes and require freighters to be carried back and forth from factory solar systems to/from the market hub.

For this reason the control of a limited numbers of POCOs in few key solar system is likely to happen and there is also all likelyhood of cartels arising.

The average player will continue producing PIs farther from trade hubs, maybe at a lower tax rate at the cost of decreased efficiency.

TLDR;
The post-patch PI will be less efficient for the average joe, cartels around trade hub may arise, the demand will increase, speculation around patch time will exist and further speculation spikes are to be expected for any cartel-war around trade hubs. Expect long term PI prices to be steadily 30% over the actual ones.

Exactly! This will drive prices up.

Of course it will still be possible to produce PI stuff far from trade hubs, but at higher cost e/o increased operational complexity. And this also drives prices up.

that was yesterday :)

for example yesterday i found sterile conduits' prices at 1.400.000 lowest sell when they had been around 930.000 the day before.

I am not the one who bought all the stock, i am just one who produces those items and sells them, so i have some grasp on the usual prices. Yesterday I already made 1 billion extra profit just because of this.

Someone is already beyond speculation, he/she/they are already moving the market.

Yes, i sold those, because i believe tha an egg today is better then (maybe) a chicken tomorrow, and because that keeps me iterating over an high volatile market which in turn generate profit at each iteration an not just once.

Said that, when rubicon hits, i am one of the average joes that will move away from jita, i will adapt and keep making profits.

Since there is nothing I can do to avoid this, I have not deluded myself into thinking that today's profits will be tomorrow profits.