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Let's discuss PLEX prices.

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Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#61 - 2013-09-21 00:03:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Diomedes Calypso
Hammer Crendraven wrote:
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
Tore Vest wrote:
I blame Incursions....
Was that last time prices was high Blink



Incursions are just the most recent method creating bounce in players steps by introducing lucrative new things to do.

PLEX prices almost certainly will double in isk value every 3 to 4 years


detailed explanation of my reasoning for any that care below:

.[/b]


I see you did not historically check the price of plex over several years.
It has been cyclical for several years running now in this pattern.
Yet you want us to believe that because of the current bump up in price it will double from here every 3 to 4 years?
I see no reason why it will not return to its normal low price by spring.

But that is what makes a market. When some believe it will continue up and some do not.

Also if you watched the 2012 fanfest you would know CCP has economists working on controling the price of plex.
And controling the inflation in the game. But the game is allowed to spike quite a ways into an abnormal condition before they respond, often it will self correct before they have to act or so he said on tape.




Your''e the one that didn't check your charts... you're looking at a 2 year trading range and missing the long term trend.

Plex prices started waht at 100 million.. when I started in 2009 I think they were in the high 200's .. when I took a break in 2011 they were in the mid to high 300s.. now they're in the 500s ...


If someone could give me a 500 day or 720 moving average I bet you anything the rate of increase was th 15% to 20% I guessed at

15% of 500 is 75 millioin..


Eventually the most important price growth rate metric is something very close to how much a mid bell-curve 6 month seasoned player can earn an hour.

In the short term markets are voting machine, In the long finacial market it is a weighing machine , (ben graham I believe)

18 months of a trading range? irrelevant for the most part... especially when the short term gyrations between 500 and 600 million mask my estimate... of the long term price.


The gyrations are almost 100 million.. the gryations would hide the long term trend but it will persist because any game is going to give players a bit more game currency over time to create the Entertainment of feelling like you're getting ahead just like an action scene in a movie excites even if there is no real connection to the outcome..


Step back to a more rational detached perspective of a non involved game analyst and stop looking for emotional and political stuff to latch onto

.
ISD Ezwal
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#62 - 2013-09-21 20:26:41 UTC
This thread has been moved to Market Discussions.

ISD Ezwal Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#63 - 2013-09-21 20:33:25 UTC
Oh no.

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Ariel Dawn
State War Academy
Caldari State
#64 - 2013-09-21 22:37:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Ariel Dawn
Hammer Crendraven wrote:
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
Tore Vest wrote:
I blame Incursions....
Was that last time prices was high Blink



Incursions are just the most recent method creating bounce in players steps by introducing lucrative new things to do.

PLEX prices almost certainly will double in isk value every 3 to 4 years


detailed explanation of my reasoning for any that care below:

.[/b]


I see you did not historically check the price of plex over several years.
It has been cyclical for several years running now in this pattern.
Yet you want us to believe that because of the current bump up in price it will double from here every 3 to 4 years?
I see no reason why it will not return to its normal low price by spring.

But that is what makes a market. When some believe it will continue up and some do not.

Also if you watched the 2012 fanfest you would know CCP has economists working on controling the price of plex.
And controling the inflation in the game. But the game is allowed to spike quite a ways into an abnormal condition before they respond, often it will self correct before they have to act or so he said on tape.



PLEX/gametime has only been going up in value since the start of EVE. For 270m 5-6 years ago, you could buy a 90 day GTC. PLEX when introduced were at 250m. The value of ISK is constantly decreasing, while game time is a fixed RL value commodity. Thus, you get more ISK per PLEX. Expect 1b+ per PLEX within a few years; it's not a "maybe", it's guaranteed to happen.

And in terms of CCP manipulating PLEX prices, they've said that banned accounts have 10,000 or so PLEX that they could introduce should the price go too high, as well as PLEX deals/sales which they do already.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#65 - 2013-09-22 00:47:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Diomedes Calypso
Ariel Dawn wrote:
Hammer Crendraven wrote:
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
Tore Vest wrote:
I blame Incursions....
Was that last time prices was high Blink


Incursions are just the most recent method creating bounce in players steps by introducing lucrative new things to do.

PLEX prices almost certainly will double in isk value every 3 to 4 years

detailed explanation of my reasoning for any that care below:

.[/b]

I see you did not historically check the price of plex over several years.
It has been cyclical for several years running now in this pattern.
Yet you want us to believe that because of the current bump up in price it will double from here every 3 to 4 years?
I see no reason why it will not return to its normal low price by spring.

But that is what makes a market. When some believe it will continue up and some do not.

Also if you watched the 2012 fanfest you would know CCP has economists working on controling the price of plex.
And controling the inflation in the game. But the game is allowed to spike quite a ways into an abnormal condition before they respond, often it will self correct before they have to act or so he said on tape.



PLEX/gametime has only been going up in value since the start of EVE. For 270m 5-6 years ago, you could buy a 90 day GTC. PLEX when introduced were at 250m. The value of ISK is constantly decreasing, while game time is a fixed RL value commodity. Thus, you get more ISK per PLEX. Expect 1b+ per PLEX within a few years; it's not a "maybe", it's guaranteed to happen.

And in terms of CCP manipulating PLEX prices, they've said that banned accounts have 10,000 or so PLEX that they could introduce should the price go too high, as well as PLEX deals/sales which they do already.



It is a shame we don't have easy access to the long term information.

I'd also assert that ISK per month of time via GTC is the same thing in terms of Value even if it tended to fluctuate less and could be purchased then resold on a speculative basis. I believe that 100 milion isk per month of game-time is a good starting point 2 years(verify?) into the games existence.

Price swings are more about seasonality, bumps related to expansions and outlyers like sharp influx of isk via new and focused NPC isk creation... and of course.. greedy financiers that can squeeze a market upward sharply when we sense drying up in supply.

I know I'm not the only one, but looking at the chart from the year before, I bought 40 plex from the market last week.. with isk that was primarily in cash and assets that I had been lazy or indifferent about selling (10,000 assorted data cores etc)

I'm sure 40 is a small number of plex for many people here. I also bet that other people here did something similar ... and I seriously doubt that any financiers were aggressively liquidating two weeks ago to offset many like me adding to positions.

..

My contribution to squeezing up the price by removing liquidity as a "noise trader" (one meaning of the term at least)

Without trying to initiate a broad discussion of different schools of technical trading or whether there is sufficient empirical data to support it's efficacy, there is a broader agreement that noise traders can influence markets in the short term.

I would postulate that any such ability to push price away from "value" would be exacerbated in thinner markets (I don't think that is really contestable by those that understand the contention), and that (more opinion perhaps ) EVE markets are more thin, the lack of reverse convertibility, and meta issues on the supply side that are heavily influenced in the short term by factors unrelated to the game economy such as "Fun" and "Time to play".

I do not refute that the game market will eventual "correct" the price of Plex towards the internal economies assestment of "value". That is accomplished by a rational cost benefit basis related to isk generating value of additional acounts engaged in things such as character creation or ME for resell etc.. among other methods. In the longer term character prices will track the isk/cost of plex but shorter term higher plex cost could reduce margins before purchase prices reflect that. All of this is incrmental and not much mind should be spent on arguing on the true motivations over 6 or 8 week periods.... as that would be more a pissing match and irrlevant long term.

.....

Long as this is getting, I'll only touch briefly on academic articles that support the contention that "noise traders" rather than creating a smoother market, actually create sharper short term swings, that then revert.

There are lots of articles with different nuances in their findings.. so I'll let you explore.

I'll quote one below for it's relatively easy to understand laguage for non economists:

http://forum.johnson.cornell.edu/faculty/saar/BO

Quote:
Abstract
We use a laboratory market to investigate the behavior of noise traders and their
impact on the market. Our experiment features informed traders (who possess
fundamental information), liquidity traders (who have to trade for exogenous reasons),
and noise traders (who do not possess fundamental information and have no exogenous
reasons to trade). We find that noise traders lose money on average: they do not engage
in extensive liquidity provision, and thei


Aniother: UC Berkely Economist Brad Delong contributed to one of the first papers on the subject, with many findings being independently verified with some evolution from the 1986 findings
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/pdf_files/Noise_Traders_Main.pdf

.
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#66 - 2013-09-22 01:14:58 UTC
Ariel Dawn wrote:
Hammer Crendraven wrote:
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
Tore Vest wrote:
I blame Incursions....
Was that last time prices was high Blink



Incursions are just the most recent method creating bounce in players steps by introducing lucrative new things to do.

PLEX prices almost certainly will double in isk value every 3 to 4 years


detailed explanation of my reasoning for any that care below:

.[/b]


I see you did not historically check the price of plex over several years.
It has been cyclical for several years running now in this pattern.
Yet you want us to believe that because of the current bump up in price it will double from here every 3 to 4 years?
I see no reason why it will not return to its normal low price by spring.

But that is what makes a market. When some believe it will continue up and some do not.

Also if you watched the 2012 fanfest you would know CCP has economists working on controling the price of plex.
And controling the inflation in the game. But the game is allowed to spike quite a ways into an abnormal condition before they respond, often it will self correct before they have to act or so he said on tape.



PLEX/gametime has only been going up in value since the start of EVE. For 270m 5-6 years ago, you could buy a 90 day GTC. PLEX when introduced were at 250m. The value of ISK is constantly decreasing, while game time is a fixed RL value commodity. Thus, you get more ISK per PLEX. Expect 1b+ per PLEX within a few years; it's not a "maybe", it's guaranteed to happen.

And in terms of CCP manipulating PLEX prices, they've said that banned accounts have 10,000 or so PLEX that they could introduce should the price go too high, as well as PLEX deals/sales which they do already.


Guaranteed to happen? And yet you state that CCP is manipulating prices? Would not it make price of PLEX in isk dependent on what CCP will do?

You may be right. You may be wrong.

You are using a very simplistic model. You assume than only isk and PLEX exist. But this could easily be thrown off if either isk is easier to generate or harder to generate or just as easy to generate over the next year(s) due to patches. Or what if some RL rich people take losses or decide to become speculators and buy PLEX to sell it for isk? Also there are other factors at play. For example minerals are sold for isk to buy PLEX, and, well then, well it gets too complicated for people to comprehend. So let's just see what happens.

There are no guarantees.
Caliph Muhammed
Perkone
Caldari State
#67 - 2013-09-22 01:51:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Caliph Muhammed
CCP can make any bold statement it wants to. When the price swings down plex sales slow. CCP releasing 10,000 plex on the market would be contrary to their best interest. They have been paid for gametime that will not be consumed. Tell me would you as a company essentially honor 200.000 real life cash in gametime for the temporary favor of disgruntled players or would you keep them off the market keeping the "free" 200000 cash and force the sale of more plex?

Let me simplify it for you. CCP isn't going to do 1 thing to alter plex prices, they are not going to release locked plex and you can rest assured plex will hit the 1 billion mark sooner or later.

They were fibbing. I say that as gently as I can.
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#68 - 2013-09-22 02:33:08 UTC
Caliph Muhammed wrote:
CCP can make any bold statement it wants to. When the price swings down plex sales slow. CCP releasing 10,000 plex on the market would be contrary to their best interest. Thy have been paid for gametime that will not be consumed. Tell me would you as a company essentially honor 200.000 real life cash in gametime for the temporary favor of disgruntled players or would you keep them off the market keeping the "free" 200000 cash and force the sale of more plex?

Let me simplify it for you. CCP isn't going to do 1 thing to alter plex prices, they are not going to release locked plex and you can rest assured plex will hit the 1 billion mark sooner or later.

They were fibbing. I say that as gently as I can.


Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing, and if you are disagreeing how so?

I would just really hate to flame you if you agree with me. It has never been a good strategy to argue with a person who agrees with you in my experience.

I am being velvet silky gentle with you.
Caliph Muhammed
Perkone
Caldari State
#69 - 2013-09-22 02:51:01 UTC
I don't know. The spiel sounded good and I went with it.

I appreciate your liberal use of lubricant.
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#70 - 2013-09-22 03:09:52 UTC
PLEX goes up, PLEX goes down. can't explain that.

I should buy an Ishtar.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#71 - 2013-09-22 05:04:39 UTC
This is a ****ing awful thread.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#72 - 2013-09-22 05:58:25 UTC
mynnna wrote:
This is a ****ing awful thread.

We already have our own awful PLEX thread, why do we need another awful PLEX thread imported from another section?
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#73 - 2013-09-22 07:24:17 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
mynnna wrote:
This is a ****ing awful thread.

We already have our own awful PLEX thread, why do we need another awful PLEX thread imported from another section?


This is where awful PLEX threads come to die...

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#74 - 2013-09-22 15:08:11 UTC
Caliph Muhammed wrote:
CCP can make any bold statement it wants to. When the price swings down plex sales slow. CCP releasing 10,000 plex on the market would be contrary to their best interest. They have been paid for gametime that will not be consumed. Tell me would you as a company essentially honor 200.000 real life cash in gametime for the temporary favor of disgruntled players or would you keep them off the market keeping the "free" 200000 cash and force the sale of more plex?

Let me simplify it for you. CCP isn't going to do 1 thing to alter plex prices, they are not going to release locked plex and you can rest assured plex will hit the 1 billion mark sooner or later.

They were fibbing. I say that as gently as I can.


Can I get a [Citation needed] for that.

What is your evidence that CCP did not alter the price of plex?

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#75 - 2013-09-22 20:03:47 UTC
Rhivre wrote:
Caliph Muhammed wrote:
CCP can make any bold statement it wants to. When the price swings down plex sales slow. CCP releasing 10,000 plex on the market would be contrary to their best interest. They have been paid for gametime that will not be consumed. Tell me would you as a company essentially honor 200.000 real life cash in gametime for the temporary favor of disgruntled players or would you keep them off the market keeping the "free" 200000 cash and force the sale of more plex?

Let me simplify it for you. CCP isn't going to do 1 thing to alter plex prices, they are not going to release locked plex and you can rest assured plex will hit the 1 billion mark sooner or later.

They were fibbing. I say that as gently as I can.


Can I get a [Citation needed] for that.

What is your evidence that CCP did not alter the price of plex?


Buy PLEX now. Price can only go up. :-) Did I get this right? Lol

This PLEX is really messing up Eve economics.
Caliph Muhammed
Perkone
Caldari State
#76 - 2013-09-22 20:56:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Caliph Muhammed
Rhivre wrote:
Caliph Muhammed wrote:
CCP can make any bold statement it wants to. When the price swings down plex sales slow. CCP releasing 10,000 plex on the market would be contrary to their best interest. They have been paid for gametime that will not be consumed. Tell me would you as a company essentially honor 200.000 real life cash in gametime for the temporary favor of disgruntled players or would you keep them off the market keeping the "free" 200000 cash and force the sale of more plex?

Let me simplify it for you. CCP isn't going to do 1 thing to alter plex prices, they are not going to release locked plex and you can rest assured plex will hit the 1 billion mark sooner or later.

They were fibbing. I say that as gently as I can.


Can I get a [Citation needed] for that.

What is your evidence that CCP did not alter the price of plex?


What is your evidence they did? My evidence is found in human nature. They have been paid for gametime that's not honored. It's free cash. Whether you can play free or not matters not in the slightest to them. The only thing that matters is that plex resellers are happy to buy more and in that particular instance they have sold gametime that doesn't have to be honored.

I'm not worried about being taken as right. CCPs word wouldn't move me. I'd need a video of them putting for sale the plex to be satisfied. 1000 dollar pants perhaps prejudiced my view.

How much free gametime has any multi year veteran ever been given? And you believe the whines' of the general public about playing free means what to them?
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#77 - 2013-09-22 21:06:35 UTC
Caliph Muhammed wrote:
Rhivre wrote:
Caliph Muhammed wrote:
CCP can make any bold statement it wants to. When the price swings down plex sales slow. CCP releasing 10,000 plex on the market would be contrary to their best interest. They have been paid for gametime that will not be consumed. Tell me would you as a company essentially honor 200.000 real life cash in gametime for the temporary favor of disgruntled players or would you keep them off the market keeping the "free" 200000 cash and force the sale of more plex?

Let me simplify it for you. CCP isn't going to do 1 thing to alter plex prices, they are not going to release locked plex and you can rest assured plex will hit the 1 billion mark sooner or later.

They were fibbing. I say that as gently as I can.


Can I get a [Citation needed] for that.

What is your evidence that CCP did not alter the price of plex?


What is your evidence they did? My evidence is found in human nature. They have been paid for gametime that's not honored. It's free cash. Whether you can play free or not matters not in the slightest to them. The only thing that matters is that plex resellers are happy to buy more and in that particular instance they have sold gametime that doesn't have to be honored.

I'm not worried about being taken as right in this instance. CCPs word wouldn't move me. I'd need a video of them putting for sale the plex to be satisfied. 1000 dollar pants perhaps prejudiced my view.


Right so I would agree with you that I would not sell the 10K PLEX. But if they said that they would then there is overhanging supply of PLEX that could or would reduce PLEX prices, and if you had lower PLEX prices then more PLEX would be bought but not from them. So in their place I would say it too that I could release 10K PLEX but I would not follow up. But maybe they would. I think that they are A-OK in my book so they might do it. I really think that this PLEX is a bad idea in the long run.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#78 - 2013-09-22 22:09:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Diomedes Calypso
Rthor wrote:
Rhivre wrote:
Caliph Muhammed wrote:
CCP can make any bold statement it wants to. When the price swings down plex sales slow. CCP releasing 10,000 plex on the market would be contrary to their best interest. They have been paid for gametime that will not be consumed. Tell me would you as a company essentially honor 200.000 real life cash in gametime for the temporary favor of disgruntled players or would you keep them off the market keeping the "free" 200000 cash and force the sale of more plex?

Let me simplify it for you. CCP isn't going to do 1 thing to alter plex prices, they are not going to release locked plex and you can rest assured plex will hit the 1 billion mark sooner or later.

They were fibbing. I say that as gently as I can.


Can I get a [Citation needed] for that.

What is your evidence that CCP did not alter the price of plex?


Buy PLEX now. Price can only go up. :-) Did I get this right? Lol

This PLEX is really messing up Eve economics.


There is a difference between saying:
Quote:
Over a span of years, the average price of all plex traded will tend to go up at a 15% to 20% compounded rate. Plex will go up over time, because the isk/hour that an average player with over 6 months of play can earn will go up over time. The more they earn, the easier it will to pay a higher price in isk for plex, or for them to pay more isk for trained characters that in turn creates a demand for plex when there is a motivation to open acounts and train for resale, and other similar business motivations that over time connect earnings to plex price

New content that pays a bit more in game currency than a year or two before is something that developers of any game know they need to provide to keep players spirits a bit up.. players doing PVE (even to fund their PVP) do get glum if their earnings are static. EVE does seek more price stability than most, and the "extra" earnings per hour seems even more real if we keep the ISK price of battle cruisers and T2 components roughtly the same. Those items supply can be tweeked by altering availabilty of their ore components and ease to bring in more ore per hour by increasing or limiting sources via spawn rates etc.

and
Quote:
I know exactly where plex prices will be next month and they will be higher.

or

I deny that things like increasing or waning player interest, external economy issues, promotions reducing the $/euro price per plex , or manipulation by mega corps can create 30% swings, even 40 % swings within a year

I agree that prices can be 650 in a few weeks and 500 in December... 700 and 450 even... or the reverse.
Those moves are almost irrelevant long term.. BUT it can be profitable short term making a good prediction without much risk long term.

People say we can't know the reason, or know what can happen . They are right Short term (6 months is short for me)

(edited out some predictions)
- x - x-
Onto "Manipulation" by CCP and "meddling in the economy"
there is a difference between:

1) Participating in the markets with the purpose of smoothing short term intra-year spikes and troughs - (
using methods to inject more plex in the market (by discount package deals increasing supply to market or by simply putting a stack of 100 for sale 5% off the ask price in Jita )

2) CCP participating in the Plex market in a way that sets the average price of plex over the year higher or lower than a free market would set the long term trend line at.

CCP intervention with the purpose to smooth would require far fewer Plex introduced to soften a spike caused by focused events or seasonal swingers deliberately made sharper by participant like myself and many others who en-masse drained supply.

CCP involvement in that smoothing function does not deny a player driven economy. It does reduce the -swings of the market- many of which are caused by "meta" events (vacations, expansions, special NPC payouts) , limits of the game economic system that would let market participants buffer the swing of plex like other goods if players could actually created supply in game rather than relying on purchasing the good from others that used non game currency to "make" it. Lack of reverse compatibility also restrains in game financier from reducing swings.

CCP short term involvement has a Meta goal - that is based on their opinion, based on their ownership for profit company, that sharp swings in plex prices lose them subscribers in ways that a swing of non-hybrid game assets , like ships and cloaking devices do not.

Given the hybrid meta/game-asset nature of the Plex, their meta interaction with the markets is really just a balance of other meta inputs. One meta deserves another . just as one player driven impact gets offset with player response.

As for Accusing CCP of long term "price fixing" of the plex markets . Off course they do but not through market participation. It would take far more PLEX being brought on the market , $ costing in terms of time/discounts given not needed with other methods, and ultimately futile if they were trying to stem an ever rising tide.

They do set the LONG TERM plex price... Their control Tool is their ability to adjust bounty rates and other NPC reward type payouts to meet isk/hour intentions... which in turn will set plex long term. They also have a major tool to change the long term corelation rate - they can sell plex for less real $ which they have been doing at peaks. The could cut plex to 5$ moving far closer to free to play and that would indideed be a permanent break after which the growth would resume at the rate of earnings power at the new corelation imposed.

.
Caliph Muhammed
Perkone
Caldari State
#79 - 2013-09-23 13:44:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Caliph Muhammed
Rthor wrote:


Buy PLEX now. Price can only go up. :-) Did I get this right? Lol

This PLEX is really messing up Eve economics.



Long term, yes. Barring any game killing features being added to the game that would introduce mass quits and such. MechWarrior managed to do this, it's not impossible. But if you have a lot of ISK laying around and no desire to trade plex investment is a sound idea.

Plex supply is limited. It can't be overproduced like a module. There are only so many people willing to pay out real cash for in game currency. I'd wager 99% of EVE dreams of playing absolutely free, indefinitely, through passively streamed income. How many plex resellers do you think that would take to meet that demand?

Keyword, long term.