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Dev Blog: A New Live Event for July

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Kytre Aurgnet
Better Hide R Die EVE
#301 - 2013-09-09 17:17:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Kytre Aurgnet
Any update on the prizes? Don't tell me they were given out and all three of my submissions were ignored...
Jarvid Myyk Sunrider
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#302 - 2013-09-09 21:31:10 UTC
Also wondering on the timeframe for prizes? I submitted all three Tiers on time and fully compliant with rules, but haven't gotten anything yet. Last I heard we were getting them by the end of last week . . .
CCP Goliath
C C P
C C P Alliance
#303 - 2013-09-10 09:49:47 UTC
Hi folks,

Hopefully getting the script reviewed and tested today - if all goes well deployment will be tomorrow. If not, Thursday.

CCP Goliath | QA Director | EVE Illuminati | @CCP_Goliath
CCP Goliath
C C P
C C P Alliance
#304 - 2013-09-10 16:09:42 UTC
Thursday it is!

CCP Goliath | QA Director | EVE Illuminati | @CCP_Goliath
DeMichael Crimson
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#305 - 2013-09-10 20:59:04 UTC
CCP Goliath wrote:
Thursday it is!


Thursday huh?

Listen to Scotty

Blink



DMC

'The Plan' | California Eve Players | Proposal - The Endless Battle
CCP Goliath
C C P
C C P Alliance
#306 - 2013-09-12 09:41:01 UTC
DeMichael Crimson wrote:
CCP Goliath wrote:
Thursday it is!


Thursday huh?

Listen to Scotty

Blink



DMC


I didn't listen!

But I should have... Sorry folks, due to a little snag yesterday we're going to have to wait for early next week for this (as it can't go out today and I am out of the office tomorrow).

CCP Goliath | QA Director | EVE Illuminati | @CCP_Goliath
Sarmatiko
#307 - 2013-09-12 11:01:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Sarmatiko
CCP Goliath wrote:
But I should have... Sorry folks, due to a little snag yesterday we're going to have to wait for early next week for this (as it can't go out today and I am out of the office tomorrow).

We can wait until Winter Expansion, no problem. But then you will have to give us something else from SoE instead of Virtue Alpha Roll
Rangh Ovaert
#308 - 2013-09-12 11:10:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Rangh Ovaert
Sarmatiko wrote:
CCP Goliath wrote:
But I should have... Sorry folks, due to a little snag yesterday we're going to have to wait for early next week for this (as it can't go out today and I am out of the office tomorrow).

We can wait until Winter Expansion, no problem. But then you will have to give us something else from SoE instead of Virtue Alpha Roll


Would have been nice to get the stuff at the first deadline when my characters was ca. 7 weeks old ...now I can afford to buy the stuff if I wanted to. None the less the whole matter slowly leaves a bitter aftertaste.
SquirlRuler Cadelanne
Guilliman Initiative
#309 - 2013-09-12 13:38:06 UTC
Rangh Ovaert wrote:
Sarmatiko wrote:
CCP Goliath wrote:
But I should have... Sorry folks, due to a little snag yesterday we're going to have to wait for early next week for this (as it can't go out today and I am out of the office tomorrow).

We can wait until Winter Expansion, no problem. But then you will have to give us something else from SoE instead of Virtue Alpha Roll


Would have been nice to get the stuff at the first deadline when my characters was ca. 7 weeks old ...now I can afford to buy the stuff if I wanted to. None the less the whole matter slowly leaves a bitter aftertaste.


Well, it is free stuff that they don't have to give you. I don't mind waiting a couple extra daysweeks months. As long as you haven't unsubbed...Roll

Slipping steadily into madness; now that is the only place to be free.
Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
#310 - 2013-09-12 13:47:06 UTC
SquirlRuler Cadelanne wrote:
Rangh Ovaert wrote:
Sarmatiko wrote:
CCP Goliath wrote:
But I should have... Sorry folks, due to a little snag yesterday we're going to have to wait for early next week for this (as it can't go out today and I am out of the office tomorrow).

We can wait until Winter Expansion, no problem. But then you will have to give us something else from SoE instead of Virtue Alpha Roll


Would have been nice to get the stuff at the first deadline when my characters was ca. 7 weeks old ...now I can afford to buy the stuff if I wanted to. None the less the whole matter slowly leaves a bitter aftertaste.


Well, it is free stuff that they don't have to give you. I don't mind waiting a couple extra daysweeks months. As long as you haven't unsubbed...Roll


It's not exactly free stuff: We took part in a contest and everyone who completed a tier of the demanded pictures "won", so to speak. If you didn't make pictures, not enough pictures or the wrong pictures or ****** up something else, you won't get anything, either way.

So of course the ongoing delay of the prices starts to get annoying, if it were a real contest with real prices, it would start to look pretty bad already.

That said, I can wait. With my luck it will turn out I messed up a single picture in every tier, anyway. Lol
Portia Tigana
Signal Cartel
EvE-Scout Enclave
#311 - 2013-09-12 14:38:21 UTC
Rangh Ovaert wrote:
Sarmatiko wrote:
CCP Goliath wrote:
But I should have... Sorry folks, due to a little snag yesterday we're going to have to wait for early next week for this (as it can't go out today and I am out of the office tomorrow).

We can wait until Winter Expansion, no problem. But then you will have to give us something else from SoE instead of Virtue Alpha Roll


Would have been nice to get the stuff at the first deadline when my characters was ca. 7 weeks old ...now I can afford to buy the stuff if I wanted to. None the less the whole matter slowly leaves a bitter aftertaste.


This is disappointing, to say the least. At this point, unless someone from CCP posts otherwise, I'm going to assume that the entries weren't verified before the grand prize was announced and that drawing was invalid.

The thrill of doing the contest has faded, all I'm left with is a vague feeling that I got scammed.
Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
#312 - 2013-09-12 15:00:46 UTC
Portia Tigana wrote:
Rangh Ovaert wrote:
Sarmatiko wrote:
CCP Goliath wrote:
But I should have... Sorry folks, due to a little snag yesterday we're going to have to wait for early next week for this (as it can't go out today and I am out of the office tomorrow).

We can wait until Winter Expansion, no problem. But then you will have to give us something else from SoE instead of Virtue Alpha Roll


Would have been nice to get the stuff at the first deadline when my characters was ca. 7 weeks old ...now I can afford to buy the stuff if I wanted to. None the less the whole matter slowly leaves a bitter aftertaste.


This is disappointing, to say the least. At this point, unless someone from CCP posts otherwise, I'm going to assume that the entries weren't verified before the grand prize was announced and that drawing was invalid.

The thrill of doing the contest has faded, all I'm left with is a vague feeling that I got scammed.


Now to be fair, the only thing we got "scammed" out of is our time. And this only if CCP doesn't get this ongoing delay sorted out.

Your assumption about the grand prize is stupid, by the way. The drawing would be invalid if CCP had drawn a winner and then not verified his pictures, but they have and so it is.

The rest is irrelevant: Either they have verified all pictures before drawing the grand price, which means they have sorted out a couple of poor schmucks with invalid pictures, or they haven't. In which case nothing would have changed, a few unlucky fellows wouldn't have changed much about our chance of winning and if they had been drawn, they would have been discarded and there would have been another draw.

Actually, I think we maybe even would have had better chances at winning with unverified pictures: More invalid contestants means less chance of winning, but on the of off-chance of someone getting drawn with invalid pictures, another draw would have happened, thus doubling our winning chance. Or multiplying, if this would have happened several times in a row.

Just my two cents.
Portia Tigana
Signal Cartel
EvE-Scout Enclave
#313 - 2013-09-12 15:30:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Portia Tigana
Owen Levanth wrote:

Now to be fair, the only thing we got "scammed" out of is our time. And this only if CCP doesn't get this ongoing delay sorted out.

Your assumption about the grand prize is stupid, by the way. The drawing would be invalid if CCP had drawn a winner and then not verified his pictures, but they have and so it is.

The rest is irrelevant: Either they have verified all pictures before drawing the grand price, which means they have sorted out a couple of poor schmucks with invalid pictures, or they haven't. In which case nothing would have changed, a few unlucky fellows wouldn't have changed much about our chance of winning and if they had been drawn, they would have been discarded and there would have been another draw.

Actually, I think we maybe even would have had better chances at winning with unverified pictures: More invalid contestants means less chance of winning, but on the of off-chance of someone getting drawn with invalid pictures, another draw would have happened, thus doubling our winning chance. Or multiplying, if this would have happened several times in a row.

Just my two cents.


I know it's just my time, I said it was a vague feeling. Big smile

As for the validity of the drawing, I know the odds don't change much with invalid entries but I'll go through the extreme example to show how the odds are lessened, not improved.

Assume Alice, Bob and Mallory all participated. Alice did all three rounds and they were valid. Bob submitted entries for all three rounds but only the first round was valid. Mallory only submitted the first round entry and it was valid.

If the entries were not verified before the drawing, Alice and Bob each get 85 entries into the final drawing, Mallory gets 10. Alice's chance of winning is 85/180 or .47%. Bob's is the same. Mallory's is 5.55%. If the entries are verified before the drawing, Alice and Mallory still have the same number of entries but Bob's are reduced to 10. So Alice now has a 85/105 chance of winning or 80%. Bob and Mallory each now have a 10% chance of winning.

With invalid entries allowed, everyone's chance of winning is lowered.

And what happens in the first scenario if Bob's name was drawn? He does in fact have a valid entry. If all they did was check the first entry to see that it was valid and stop, he wins with artificially inflated odds.

That's the extreme scenario and I don't know how many entries are actually invalid but I do know it's non-zero. But again, in the end, the odds only change by very small fractions of a percent per invalid entry but they do change and not in our favor.
Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
#314 - 2013-09-12 15:46:53 UTC
Portia Tigana wrote:
Owen Levanth wrote:

Now to be fair, the only thing we got "scammed" out of is our time. And this only if CCP doesn't get this ongoing delay sorted out.

Your assumption about the grand prize is stupid, by the way. The drawing would be invalid if CCP had drawn a winner and then not verified his pictures, but they have and so it is.

The rest is irrelevant: Either they have verified all pictures before drawing the grand price, which means they have sorted out a couple of poor schmucks with invalid pictures, or they haven't. In which case nothing would have changed, a few unlucky fellows wouldn't have changed much about our chance of winning and if they had been drawn, they would have been discarded and there would have been another draw.

Actually, I think we maybe even would have had better chances at winning with unverified pictures: More invalid contestants means less chance of winning, but on the of off-chance of someone getting drawn with invalid pictures, another draw would have happened, thus doubling our winning chance. Or multiplying, if this would have happened several times in a row.

Just my two cents.


I know it's just my time, I said it was a vague feeling. Big smile

As for the validity of the drawing, I know the odds don't change much with invalid entries but I'll go through the extreme example to show how the odds are lessened, not improved.

Assume Alice, Bob and Mallory all participated. Alice did all three rounds and they were valid. Bob submitted entries for all three rounds but only the first round was valid. Mallory only submitted the first round entry and it was valid.

If the entries were not verified before the drawing, Alice and Bob each get 85 entries into the final drawing, Mallory gets 10. Alice's chance of winning is 85/180 or .47%. Bob's is the same. Mallory's is 5.55%. If the entries are verified before the drawing, Alice and Mallory still have the same number of entries but Bob's are reduced to 10. So Alice now has a 85/105 chance of winning or 80%. Bob and Mallory each now have a 10% chance of winning.

With invalid entries allowed, everyone's chance of winning is lowered.

And what happens in the first scenario if Bob's name was drawn? He does in fact have a valid entry. If all they did was check the first entry to see that it was valid and stop, he wins with artificially inflated odds.

That's the extreme scenario and I don't know how many entries are actually invalid but I do know it's non-zero. But again, in the end, the odds only change by very small fractions of a percent per invalid entry but they do change and not in our favor.


Ah, point taken.

But I wouldn't worry too much about the contest, even in an extreme scenario they would have at least controlled all three tiers instead of just the first one to sort out invalid entries and the prizes for the pictures alone are only impressive if it's your first week of Eve Online.

If you did your grand tour of New Eden like me, you'll have at least a shitload of nice pictures as a consolation prize. Lol
Rob Crowley
State War Academy
#315 - 2013-09-13 20:46:37 UTC
Owen Levanth wrote:
Actually, I think we maybe even would have had better chances at winning with unverified pictures: More invalid contestants means less chance of winning, but on the of off-chance of someone getting drawn with invalid pictures, another draw would have happened, thus doubling our winning chance. Or multiplying, if this would have happened several times in a row.
Dude, that's awesome! After a few invalid draws my chances of winning would be like at least 300%! So why didn't I win?! (Honestly, your math is bad. No offence.)

Portia Tigana wrote:
With invalid entries allowed, everyone's chance of winning is lowered.
That's not possible of course, if that were true then the chance of having a winner would go below 100%. Unless you only refer to a potential first draw where an invalid entry might get drawn. But the chance on any single draw is of course irrelevant, what counts is your chance to be the winner at the end after all potentially invalid draws are done.

Quote:
And what happens in the first scenario if Bob's name was drawn? He does in fact have a valid entry.
Then the draw is repeated with only Bob's valid entries this time. This changes neither Bob's nor anyone else's ultimate chance to win. It's just as if the first draw has never happened. Repeat for further invalid draws.

Quote:
That's the extreme scenario and I don't know how many entries are actually invalid but I do know it's non-zero. But again, in the end, the odds only change by very small fractions of a percent per invalid entry but they do change and not in our favor.
The odds don't change at all if it's done right, as outlined above.
Portia Tigana
Signal Cartel
EvE-Scout Enclave
#316 - 2013-09-13 21:23:53 UTC
Removing invalid entries if that person is drawn does not change the fact that the other entries had a lower chance to be drawn. In my scenario, if Mallory was drawn first, game over, she wins. Yet Alice had her chance reduced greatly, from 80% to 47%. No one would even know this until some time much later after all the entries were verified.

Invalid entries inflate the total entry pool, lowering the chance for the valid entries to win. Basic simple math. Repeatedly drawing names, pruning the bad entries and hoping to get a valid set of entries doesn't change that.
Rob Crowley
State War Academy
#317 - 2013-09-13 21:52:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Rob Crowley
Portia Tigana wrote:
Removing invalid entries if that person is drawn does not change the fact that the other entries had a lower chance to be drawn. In my scenario, if Mallory was drawn first, game over, she wins. Yet Alice had her chance reduced greatly, from 80% to 47%. No one would even know this until some time much later after all the entries were verified.

Invalid entries inflate the total entry pool, lowering the chance for the valid entries to win. Basic simple math. Repeatedly drawing names, pruning the bad entries and hoping to get a valid set of entries doesn't change that.

Wrong, you have to distinguish between the chance to get your name drawn and the chance to win the prize. The first one changes over the course of several draws when invalid entries get pruned (but as I already said this chance is completely irrelevant), the second one stays the same and that's what counts.

To make this a bit clearer, look at it from Mallory's point of view in the first draw: her chance of getting her name drawn is smaller because of inflated entries, but those entries are not actually dangerous to her because they can't win the prize. So the chance of Mallory winning the prize is not smaller than it would've been with pre-filtered entries.

Sometimes basic simple math isn't as simple as it appears to be. Big smile


Edit: A bit of nitpicking on my own math. The way I described handling a hit on someone with partially valid entries actually skews the chances slightly in favour of people with only valid entries because the people with partially valid entries can't win at all on draws when they still have invalid entries, not even with their valid portion of entries. Not that this would really be a problem, cause the people with partially valid entries are responsible themselves for having invalid entries.

Anyway, if you want truly identical chances of winning the prize for everyone compared to a pre-filtered draw you have to handle drawing someone with partially valid entries like this: You check if his valid or invalid entries were hit, e.g. by random draw. So in the above example if Bob gets hit on first draw while he has invalid entries you make a side draw where on 10/85 chance he wins the prize and on 75/85 he doesn't win and a second draw is done with his invalid entries removed (though the removal doesn't matter for the chances, you could keep the invalid entries and it would still be the same). This way the chances for everyone are the same as in a pre-filtered draw.
CCP Goliath
C C P
C C P Alliance
#318 - 2013-09-14 14:18:22 UTC
Portia Tigana wrote:
Rangh Ovaert wrote:
Sarmatiko wrote:
CCP Goliath wrote:
But I should have... Sorry folks, due to a little snag yesterday we're going to have to wait for early next week for this (as it can't go out today and I am out of the office tomorrow).

We can wait until Winter Expansion, no problem. But then you will have to give us something else from SoE instead of Virtue Alpha Roll


Would have been nice to get the stuff at the first deadline when my characters was ca. 7 weeks old ...now I can afford to buy the stuff if I wanted to. None the less the whole matter slowly leaves a bitter aftertaste.


This is disappointing, to say the least. At this point, unless someone from CCP posts otherwise, I'm going to assume that the entries weren't verified before the grand prize was announced and that drawing was invalid.

The thrill of doing the contest has faded, all I'm left with is a vague feeling that I got scammed.


I will absolutely say that the entries were verified before the drawing of the grand prize and subsequent announcement (I also posted to this effect on Twitter prior to the announcement).

CCP Goliath | QA Director | EVE Illuminati | @CCP_Goliath
Portia Tigana
Signal Cartel
EvE-Scout Enclave
#319 - 2013-09-14 19:09:36 UTC
CCP Goliath wrote:

I will absolutely say that the entries were verified before the drawing of the grand prize and subsequent announcement (I also posted to this effect on Twitter prior to the announcement).

Thanks for this post. My faith in CCP has been restored. Big smile

Sorry for the drama, sometimes the mind invents monsters out of the shadows in the dark.
Kaycee Deegee
TR-475
#320 - 2013-09-15 06:06:16 UTC
I honestly don't really mind if we never get the prizes. I had a great time doing the contest. It gave me a reason to go out and do things I otherwise wouldn't have done (yeah I'm a care-bear). I spent more time in null-sec for that contest than I did in the entire year prior to it. Sure I lost a couple of ships but I also learned a few tricks and saved myself from loosing a few ships in the process. Heck, the adrenaline rush of getting all the way out to Steve made the whole thing worth it!

I can't wait for the next one!