These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

The Post-Oxytopes World

First post
Author
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#81 - 2011-11-13 15:13:08 UTC
Lexmana wrote:
So yesterday was the first day with zero transactions in Jita. Impressive. Was this is just a shock reaction or a sign of weakness?


That's just a display glitch that happens.
tengen san
Triton-TC
#82 - 2011-11-13 17:57:53 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
tengen san wrote:
It certainly does but Iam still not convinced there is a lasting effect! The OI price jumps are caused by a hype, taking in account the operation cut of a mere 6,5% -7,5% of the available recourse, the laws of the market allows only a solid shortage a lasting sustainability on a risen price level.

Hype always will be what it is, a hype as it has no solid background. Take it as given the drones get stripped from their alloy, a real existing shortage comes in function, justify any skyrocketing of Ore/Min prices. The OI shortage is only real where buyers hold back their stocks but not in the nature of a resource shortage.




I presume that you've cashed in all but a bare operating minimum of your stock, knowing that a price crash is immenent?


Not yet, as the hype is still working well and the spike isn’t reach yet.

I also see no reason for an imminent price crash. I don’t know from where in my post this could be extracted. What I do daub is a sustained high Price elevation, this based on the remaining 92% of the target resource. Sooner or later the prices will slow down gradually once these resources, rather neglected till now, will come in focus to be attractive enough to feed the market. It’s just hurting not enough but it will come.

11 BI Ice belts partially shoot down compared to a 170 TBI available with a higher OI yield than BI really can’t create a shortage on the long term.

On the end, the attempt to minimize bots will be contra productive in its effect, as booting will rise in those areas out of reach to the Ice indictors. From my observations I even dare to state you can run a bot in the Gallanten Ice fields much saver now than ever before once you’ve paid the requested 250mil fee.
Claire Voyant
#83 - 2011-11-13 19:17:28 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
I presume that you've cashed in all but a bare operating minimum of your stock, knowing that a price crash is immenent?

Yeah, I'm down to my last 6 million unit stack of raw ice, just pondering if I should refine before hauling it. Hard times.
Rakshasa Taisab
Sane Industries Inc.
#84 - 2011-11-14 03:20:14 UTC
tengen san wrote:
On the end, the attempt to minimize bots will be contra productive in its effect, as booting will rise in those areas out of reach to the Ice indictors. From my observations I even dare to state you can run a bot in the Gallanten Ice fields much saver now than ever before once you’ve paid the requested 250mil fee.

Make the rest of your post seem like a shining beacon of insight.

Nyan

Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#85 - 2011-11-14 09:03:42 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:

Which goes back to the original question. How big are the stockpiles and how long will Goons have to keep up this (rather boring) interdiction of all of the ice fields in Gallente space? (And Oxytope prices have been flat-lined at 900-1050 ISK/u for a few weeks now, hardly a "skyrocket".)

I don't think that the POS owner stockpiles are really an issue here.

If you check the market numbers in the Gallente regions, you'll notice that oxytope prices may be up, but quantities sold/bought are down, and more importantly, not showing any signs of improving. So, the Goons are sitting on a huge pile of oxytope sell orders, but no one is buying.

Demand of oxytopes is unlikely to increase, since most current POS owners are opting to swap Gallente/Serpentis towers for other racial towers, as their oxytope supply runs out (many were even smart enough to sell off their oxytopes and use the profit to buy 2-3 times more alternate 'tope fuel for their new towers). New POS owners are avoiding the problem by not buying Gallente/Serpentis towers in fhe first place.

Eventually, the Goons may be able to sell out their excess stock in oxytopes, but it will take a long time, esp. as demand continues to drop. And, to keep the price up at current levels, they will need to actively maintain the Gallente ice interdiction. If they don't, then the ice miner bots will be immediately back at work - grinding out tons of oxytopes and undercutting the Goon sell orders, pushing the price rapidly back down.

So, this is more of a question of how long Goon management wants to tie up so many sell orders with oxytopes, and how long they want to tie up players to maintain the interdiction. Overall, though, it really does not make sense to keep it going much longer, and even less sense to continue it after the Winter Expansion.

From an economic POV, it isn't really a great idea to sit on an excess of slow-moving stock, esp. of an item which is easy for bots to grind from nothing and for which buyers have alternative choices at a much lower price. Most of the experienced folks in MD know this already. Also, maintaining the interdiction will get more expensive, when suicide ganking loses the insurance payout. So, you are looking at pretty lousy ROI and a lousy monthly cash flow, esp. given the amount of work involved.

From a fun and drama POV, well... suicide ganking of miners isn't very challenging, and waiting around for them to show up is even more boring than gate camping or high sec station games. And, even if you are a fanatic for suicide ganking, there are much more interesting (and more profitable) targets of opportunity. The tears are just not as plentiful from mining bots as they are from officer-fit mission runners or AFK auto-piloting freighter pilots hauling billions of ISK of goodies in their cargo holds.
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#86 - 2011-11-14 09:40:19 UTC
jm24 wrote:
Oxygen Isotopes updated price target: 1500-2000 within 3 days.

A feasible, but also a "so what" prediction.

Most of the large sell orders on market are Goon orders (rather obvious, since the regional prices and expiration dates on the sell orders are identical - in fact, it looks like a market bot at work... hmm...). Buying from your own sell orders at a higher price, just to tweak up the graph, is an old market manipulation trick.

Unless the sold/bought quantities resume to pre-interdiction levels, the price alone really means very little.

A more interesting speculation is whether or not the Goons are going to buy up all oxytopes which are sold under their target price. If the Goons buy up the competitors' oxytopes, then they are putting ISK into the miners' pockets, which just encourages them to continue mining Gallente ice (since the larger profit margin offsets the ship loss cost, esp. for fully-insurable T1 mining barges). If they don't buy them up, then the undercutting sell orders will keep pushing the price back down again.
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#87 - 2011-11-14 09:50:58 UTC
The Mittani wrote:
I'm not sure what I enjoy more, making thousands of industrialists suffer, making thousands of miners suffer, or watching the pseudointellectuals in MD bleat about how nothing we're doing is having an impact.

Well, it must be the third choice in your list that you enjoy most, since the first two never actually happened.

Maybe if you replace "thousands" with "a handful"....
Fuujin
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#88 - 2011-11-14 10:09:34 UTC
Sizeof Void wrote:
The Mittani wrote:
I'm not sure what I enjoy more, making thousands of industrialists suffer, making thousands of miners suffer, or watching the pseudointellectuals in MD bleat about how nothing we're doing is having an impact.

Well, it must be the third choice in your list that you enjoy most, since the first two never actually happened.

Maybe if you replace "thousands" with "a handful"....


We've killed over 2,000 barges/exhumers since this began. Just sayin'.
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#89 - 2011-11-14 10:58:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Nomad I
I doesn't matters how many miner ships were killed because goonies self mining ice like robots. Sometimes you can see one pilot with 8 accounts in one system mining ice (The names are only a variation) around the clock.

The only weaponn left is that the GSF has ISK enough ISK to buy the hole isotope production
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#90 - 2011-11-14 13:02:40 UTC
Fuujin wrote:
Sizeof Void wrote:
The Mittani wrote:
I'm not sure what I enjoy more, making thousands of industrialists suffer, making thousands of miners suffer, or watching the pseudointellectuals in MD bleat about how nothing we're doing is having an impact.

Well, it must be the third choice in your list that you enjoy most, since the first two never actually happened.

Maybe if you replace "thousands" with "a handful"....


We've killed over 2,000 barges/exhumers since this began. Just sayin'.

Yeah, I know. And, I applaud the effort.

But, you gotta realize that most of the large ice fleets are bots, which don't really care if they get blown up or not. Odd that you often fail to get any response in local to a gank and the pod just hangs around the wreck doing nothing, isn't it? You just can't squeeze many tears from a macro. As for the players running the bots, as long as they are still making AFK profit, they don't care much either. The interdiction of Gallente ice just means that some of them moved their operation to harvest Amarr, Minmatar or Caldari ice, while others just switched to mining asteroids. There are actually very few "real" players who play Eve just to mine ice - it simply isn't very fun nor as profitable as other semi-AFK activities.

As for the very, very few, masochistic, last-hold-out, "real" ice miners who are still trying to mine Gallente ice... well, I talked to some of them, out of curiousity. It seems that they are having a lot of fun trying to figure out how to beat the Goons at this game, rather than take the easy way out and go mine something else, somewhere else. They are the ones you see switching to insurable T1 mining barges, attempting to tank with logi ships, willing to exchange smack talk in local, etc. But, count them for yourself, there are nowhere even close to a thousand such ice miner players running around the Gallente ice fields. Never were.

As for the industrialists, most have really not been affected by the interdiction. First off, not everyone uses Gallente/Serpentis towers - Caldari towers are more popular for research lab work, and Minnie towers are preferred if the POS is likely to be attacked - and the Gallente tower silo bonus, while considered useful, is not absolutely essential. Second, because of the time and investment required to do various POS-related industry, industrial corps plan to run their towers for months/years, and typically have 3-6 months worth of stockpiled POS fuel in nearby stations. And, thirdly, even for the corps which are running short on oxytopes, given that each tower will be running for a minimum of several months, spending a couple of hours to swap it out for a dfferent racial tower, in order to save on fuel cost, is not really considered much of a hassle.

In fact, my industrial corp is actually pretty happy with the Goon interdiction. We swapped out our Gallente towers, sold off our oxytope stockpile at the spiked prices, bought up 2x as much cheap 'topes for our new towers, and cleared a very tidy profit for a few hours of work.

So, who exactly are these thousands who have been suffering? The Goon grunts who get the oh-so-much-fun job of camping high sec ice systems? lol....
Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#91 - 2011-11-14 13:10:36 UTC
What about the people running around with gallente carriers, dreads, supercarriers and titans?

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#92 - 2011-11-14 13:10:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Nomad I
del
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#93 - 2011-11-14 13:14:41 UTC
Lord Zim wrote:
What about the people running around with gallente carriers, dreads, supercarriers and titans?


That's not really important. Most of the fuel is burned in towers.
Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#94 - 2011-11-14 13:20:36 UTC
Let's ask the owners of those ships, shall we?

Oh, I almost forgot, gallente JF and rorquals.

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#95 - 2011-11-14 13:37:28 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
As we all know, it is becoming virtually impossible to source oxytopes anywhere in eve for anything less than a fuckgoons price. Oxytopes have solidly broken the 1000 barrier again today...
What market impacts will this have?

out miners are very thankful to your effort Lol

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"

Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#96 - 2011-11-14 13:56:49 UTC
They're finally able to mine something which is more valuable than veldspar?

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#97 - 2011-11-14 14:41:22 UTC
Seriously, who are these people?

This is like the 12th person to come on here and talk complete clueless nonsense about this interdiction.

STFU if you don't know what you're talking about.
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#98 - 2011-11-14 14:56:20 UTC
Lord Zim wrote:
What about the people running around with gallente carriers, dreads, supercarriers and titans?

after i got my Thanny i bought some amount of fuel. It's like 100-200k of isotopes.... Still using this amount....

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"

Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#99 - 2011-11-14 14:59:03 UTC
And when that runs out, then what?

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#100 - 2011-11-14 15:24:17 UTC
then i will buy it from our miners. Or mine by myself... Just for fun.
don't worry: ISKies will not leave this corp Lol

i think i will need more fuel in like 3-4 months.....

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"