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Gnosis manipulation
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Zetrick
Gh0st of Eden
Parallaxis Alliance
#1 - 2013-08-14 11:01:33 UTC
I have thought for a while now that someone has been keeping the prices down on the Gnosis market in Jita. There has always been large quantity's put up around 62-63m which seems to have kept the price down. Yesterday though all these large quantity orders were removed and for the first time in a while the Gnosis market is spiking upwards.

I can only presume the trader/traders want to cash in on there manipulation, might see Gnosis's hitting 100m+ in the not so distant future.

Z
I Was There
Habemus
#2 - 2013-08-14 11:13:46 UTC
I doubt it
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#3 - 2013-08-14 11:22:53 UTC
5 round BP slap in your face...

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#4 - 2013-08-14 12:34:03 UTC
Zetrick wrote:
I have thought for a while now that someone has been keeping the prices down on the Gnosis market in Jita. There has always been large quantity's put up around 62-63m which seems to have kept the price down. Yesterday though all these large quantity orders were removed and for the first time in a while the Gnosis market is spiking upwards.

I can only presume the trader/traders want to cash in on there manipulation, might see Gnosis's hitting 100m+ in the not so distant future.

Z

TL;DR: OP is sitting on a gnosis stack.

I should buy an Ishtar.
X ATM092
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#5 - 2013-08-14 13:16:56 UTC
The gnosis isn't worth flying, nor does it have any kind of rarity. Comparatively few actually get destroyed and most people will never buy a gnosis over a similarly priced better ship. It will never be worth 100m. Ever.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#6 - 2013-08-14 13:53:27 UTC
I sold 6 of mine for between 260 and 300m as quick as I could. Every account got given one, and it was a single ship rather than 4 racial special ships, so the price was destined to drop. I kept 2 to look at, because, why not? :D

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
I Was There
Habemus
#7 - 2013-08-14 15:12:14 UTC
I know certain people invested in gnosis as it spiked from 100m -> 250m the first day. Those who bought at 100m will slam drop their **** as soon as it hits that area. I highly doubt the gnosis will get above 100m in the near future.
Samroski
Middle-Earth
#8 - 2013-08-15 07:14:34 UTC
X ATM092 wrote:
The gnosis isn't worth flying, nor does it have any kind of rarity. Comparatively few actually get destroyed and most people will never buy a gnosis over a similarly priced better ship. It will never be worth 100m. Ever.

"Ever" seems so final! I expected these to hit the figure 2-3 years down the line, though after your comment I feel like revising the the ETA to 2018.

This is of course if nothing else changes. The first major change, though, would be the 5 run BPCs which should hit Eve pretty soon. At least these will give us an idea of the mineral cost, and are likely to impact the price, even though the material cost is likely to be <100m.

And then CCP could go the Sarum Magnate way, or open up Jove space, or re-balance/nerf the ship, and so on.... Should never have bought those 500 Gnoses....

As an aside: nearly 50k Gnoses have been traded at Jita to date, representing about 10% of the total. Not sure how many have been lost.

Any colour you like.
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#9 - 2013-08-15 07:18:41 UTC
@ samorski.

Why not take a loan based on those 500? A long long term one...

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Samroski
Middle-Earth
#10 - 2013-08-15 07:25:20 UTC
arabella blood wrote:
@ samorski.

Why not take a loan based on those 500? A long long term one...

A. Do not need a loan atm, though I like the idea. Maybe OP can loan me the amount anyway, valuing them at 95m each and make a decent profit when I default a month later.

B. My actual stock is about a third of what I claimed above.

Any colour you like.
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#11 - 2013-08-15 07:31:54 UTC
I was toying with that idea some time.

Taking a very long term loan based on something like gnosis. Then waiting few years, paying the interest based on the sky rocket price when i cash out.

In case like that, valying the gnosis 95mil is bad, the less the better. Because i dobt actually need the isk, its just a waste to have a stack sitting...

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

X ATM092
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#12 - 2013-08-15 12:37:50 UTC
Samroski wrote:
X ATM092 wrote:
The gnosis isn't worth flying, nor does it have any kind of rarity. Comparatively few actually get destroyed and most people will never buy a gnosis over a similarly priced better ship. It will never be worth 100m. Ever.

"Ever" seems so final! I expected these to hit the figure 2-3 years down the line, though after your comment I feel like revising the the ETA to 2018.

This is of course if nothing else changes. The first major change, though, would be the 5 run BPCs which should hit Eve pretty soon. At least these will give us an idea of the mineral cost, and are likely to impact the price, even though the material cost is likely to be <100m.

And then CCP could go the Sarum Magnate way, or open up Jove space, or re-balance/nerf the ship, and so on.... Should never have bought those 500 Gnoses....

As an aside: nearly 50k Gnoses have been traded at Jita to date, representing about 10% of the total. Not sure how many have been lost.


It's possible that mineral prices could inflate to the point that a reprocessed gnosis hull would be worth 100m of minerals I guess. The gnosis itself though? Not likely.
Zetrick
Gh0st of Eden
Parallaxis Alliance
#13 - 2013-08-15 19:32:39 UTC
Samroski wrote:
[quote=X ATM092]
This is of course if nothing else changes. The first major change, though, would be the 5 run BPCs which should hit Eve pretty soon. At least these will give us an idea of the mineral cost, and are likely to impact the price, even though the material cost is likely to be <100m.


This exactly, when the BPC's come out there might be a lot of them but if it costs 100M to make, then who is going to make them while the market prices are lower. This at least would raise the market price eventually. But I dont know there are lots of what if's in that statement. I have a stack of Gnosis yes but i originally bought them as a long term investment becuase I was stepping away from the game for a while.

Doesn't stop me checking the market though. Big smile. Also someone said that not many die, seems to me that lots of people are using these ships and losing them too.

Z
Samroski
Middle-Earth
#14 - 2013-08-15 22:21:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Samroski
Maybe they will sell a 1000 special editions, max 5000. Thus BPCs for 5 to 25k more gnoses, which accounts for max. 1-5% of the ships out there.

Edit: likely to be near 1%

Any colour you like.
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#15 - 2013-08-17 19:12:43 UTC  |  Edited by: HeXxploiT
X ATM092 wrote:
The gnosis isn't worth flying, nor does it have any kind of rarity. Comparatively few actually get destroyed and most people will never buy a gnosis over a similarly priced better ship. It will never be worth 100m. Ever.


I laughed...you guys are SO GOOD about discouraging others ...lol...I almost believed that you yourself believed what you were saying. Big smile

Look the Battlecruiser Gnosis is selling at battlecruiser prices.
For a ship that will never have a BPO and will effectively, for all intents & purposes, disappear from the game, 65mil is an incredibly solid buy. Most pilots are still generally uneducated about the Gnosis.
It does slightly less DPS than other Battlecruisers but has an excellent tank regardless of race and is an incredibly multifaceted vessel that can be fitted decently in every way conceivable.

It's rather akin to a baby Tengu in that it can be fitted with many different philosophies in mind meeting the needs of both PVP using various doctrines as well as shining in highsec PVE especially for younger pilots.
Let's take a worst case scenario.
Add up how many of these ships have already been given out. Let's say 200,000 characters received the ship while it was being handed out then say that 10,000 people buy the 10year anniversary edition which would add another 50,000 ships from the 5 run bpc. That gives us 250,000 Gnosis.
Yesterday and the previous day there were 46 & 40 Gnosis lost respectively. This includes only pvp losses mind you.
So let's say that a total of 75 Gnosis a day are lost to both PVP & PVE. In 1 year that would be 27,375 ships which would mean that in under 10 years the Gnosis supply would be completely depleted.

Remember that unlike so many of the "collector" ships this one is versatile and pilots actually desire to fly it.

Many of us have already seen the Goon & Test Gnosis fleets and there have been and will continue to be times when these ships will be lost in large quantities because of this.

So not only will the Gnosis be an excellent long term investment but it's a superb item to daytrade as the spread usually has a huge gap because of the generally widespread lack of vision concerning its future.

I took a small loss on the first 30 I purchased at a hundred mil but have since made bucketloads trading this fine vessel across the galaxy and will continue to due so all the while collecting a stockpile for my own humble collection.

Good luck in your investments guys. Trust your instincts. 07
Obunagawe
#16 - 2013-08-17 21:04:25 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:
I have a considerable gnosis stack
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#17 - 2013-08-17 21:36:56 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:


you guys are SO GOOD about discouraging others



Maybe you are good convincing yourself?? Roll

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#18 - 2013-08-17 22:09:47 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:
X ATM092 wrote:
The gnosis isn't worth flying, nor does it have any kind of rarity. Comparatively few actually get destroyed and most people will never buy a gnosis over a similarly priced better ship. It will never be worth 100m. Ever.


I laughed...you guys are SO GOOD about discouraging others ...lol...I almost believed that you yourself believed what you were saying. Big smile

Look the Battlecruiser Gnosis is selling at battlecruiser prices.
For a ship that will never have a BPO and will effectively, for all intents & purposes, disappear from the game, 65mil is an incredibly solid buy. Most pilots are still generally uneducated about the Gnosis.
It does slightly less DPS than other Battlecruisers but has an excellent tank regardless of race and is an incredibly multifaceted vessel that can be fitted decently in every way conceivable.

It's rather akin to a baby Tengu in that it can be fitted with many different philosophies in mind meeting the needs of both PVP using various doctrines as well as shining in highsec PVE especially for younger pilots.
Let's take a worst case scenario.
Add up how many of these ships have already been given out. Let's say 200,000 characters received the ship while it was being handed out then say that 10,000 people buy the 10year anniversary edition which would add another 50,000 ships from the 5 run bpc. That gives us 250,000 Gnosis.
Yesterday and the previous day there were 46 & 40 Gnosis lost respectively. This includes only pvp losses mind you.
So let's say that a total of 75 Gnosis a day are lost to both PVP & PVE. In 1 year that would be 27,375 ships which would mean that in under 10 years the Gnosis supply would be completely depleted.

Remember that unlike so many of the "collector" ships this one is versatile and pilots actually desire to fly it.

Many of us have already seen the Goon & Test Gnosis fleets and there have been and will continue to be times when these ships will be lost in large quantities because of this.

So not only will the Gnosis be an excellent long term investment but it's a superb item to daytrade as the spread usually has a huge gap because of the generally widespread lack of vision concerning its future.

I took a small loss on the first 30 I purchased at a hundred mil but have since made bucketloads trading this fine vessel across the galaxy and will continue to due so all the while collecting a stockpile for my own humble collection.

Good luck in your investments guys. Trust your instincts. 07

That's all well and good, but there's a few flaws.
As it's a unique ship a lot of people won't want to fly it. It brings unwanted attention as people are more likely to want to take you down, just because it's rare. This decreases demand. As it become more rare, demand will only decrease, whiich will keep the price low. It will aslo mean you 75 loss a day will decrease too, as the eventually theo nly people holding a gnosis are the other gnosis investors.
Look at any other mass handed out special edition ship, and not one of them has shows any signs of a price increase.
Basically, the only chance of the Gnosis becoming worth a lot of isk is if:
A. The manufacture cost of the BPCs forces a jump in price (unlikely)
B. You end up with the only gnosis in the game (since it was handed out to everyone, and BPCs are due, and there are so many people stockpiling them) which is also unlikely.
100m is probably the best you can ever hope for, but even that is pretty unlikely. For a long term investment, the isk would be better spent on faster moving trades (since 60m to 100m over a 10 year period is truly horrible).

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Careby
#19 - 2013-08-17 23:21:44 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:
...For a ship that will never have a BPO and will effectively, for all intents & purposes, disappear from the game, 65mil is an incredibly solid buy...

I must have missed an announcement. Did CCP ever say the Gnosis was a limited, one-time release?
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#20 - 2013-08-18 01:56:37 UTC
Obunagawe wrote:
HeXxploiT wrote:
I HOPE TO have a considerable gnosis stack



Fixed. Right now I just have a pyle. I have no problems with disclosure.

Careby wrote:
HeXxploiT wrote:
...For a ship that will never have a BPO and will effectively, for all intents & purposes, disappear from the game, 65mil is an incredibly solid buy...

I must have missed an announcement. Did CCP ever say the Gnosis was a limited, one-time release?



Yes. It's listed as a "special edition" ship which means there will be no further runs in the future.
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