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Crime & Punishment

 
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My research project for work, into SOMER Blink - Loved every minute.

First post
Author
Jove Death
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#61 - 2013-08-09 14:24:50 UTC
soooooooo

if somebody wins a t2 bpo like the other month which was prob worth about 250bill. How much do they have to input to get that?

Or does someblink pick the highest person that has deposited isk and pick them at random.

I understand the margins are slim but I know there are chars out there that play blink that are in profit.

TBH ITS A LOTTERY GET OVER IT!


You could have actually just given your isk to me instead of doing all that work for somthing we know already Big smile

Quoting "you will die" in EvE is fail Chars dont die in EvE. Unless you have a heart attack eek.

Kashmyta
HC - gizmos Gizco
#62 - 2013-08-09 14:59:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Kashmyta
Cipio Alduin wrote:


I am a married man with children.



what relevance does that comment have to the post?
Seven Koskanaiken
Shadow Legions.
SONS of BANE
#63 - 2013-08-09 16:55:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Seven Koskanaiken
Victoria Sin wrote:
Of course it's a fix. The house is also betting (via alts), so the house wins a good number of its own blinks. That doesn't mean you don't also have a chance of winning as the odds are still 1/8 for the small stuff and 1/16 for the big stuff (sometimes other odds) but over the course of time the house will always win and your account will regress to the mean, which is lower than break-even (I don't know what it actually is).

Listen people, don't gamble your hard earned isk on Sommerblink. It's addictive and eventually it's going to clean you out.


Looking at a firetail blink with a buyout of 10800000 and a blink of 2000000 the payout is 5.4 to 1.

So e = (5.4*(1/8))+(-1*(7/8)) = -0.2 or 20%.

A rorqual blink has buyout 2,742,280,000 and a blink of 191,500,000, a payout of 14.32 to 1.

e = (14.32*(1/16))+(-1*(15/16)) = -0.0425 or 4.25%.

The big blinks seem to be more profitable (or technically, less unprofitable) to play than the small blinks. Perhaps each blink has an individual edge, in which case someone can write a script to find the best blinks to play. SOMER's edges are quite high though. The house edge on a roulette wheel is only 2.7%. Basically, SOMERblink is a game for suckers.
Telegram Sam
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#64 - 2013-08-09 17:05:15 UTC
Somer Blink gave me 10bil isk for prizes for an EVE fiction contest. I only asked them for 2bil, but when they saw that the contest was legit, they unilaterally upped the donation to 10bil. They may be a for-profit business, but they're generous in their support for the EVE community.
HUGO DRAX
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#65 - 2013-08-09 19:36:47 UTC
30 page research to figure out that Casinos make money by having a house edge over the customers who play the game?


It is not rocket science. BLINK is a business, they have a house edge.

RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#66 - 2013-08-09 19:41:06 UTC
Kashmyta wrote:
Cipio Alduin wrote:


I am a married man with children.



what relevance does that comment have to the post?



It makes his spending $3000 USD on learning that Bookies take a cut.... less.... sad?

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

HUGO DRAX
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#67 - 2013-08-09 19:44:54 UTC
Someone should do a research on attempting a Martingale strategy on BLINK. Big smile
Cyonsiaros StrawHat
Doomheim
#68 - 2013-08-09 19:55:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Cyonsiaros StrawHat
The most common misconception here is that the odds of winning a 1/16 raffle with 1 ticket are 1/16.

The truth is this is barely ever the case.

The truth is somer picks the winning number when somer wants to.

On ultras and gigas.

There's several somer alts posting in this thread about:

It's a casino,
It's gambling,

Neither really reflect the true nature as they prey on the stupidity of the masses who than
feel the need to disregard everything else and relate the operation to a simple lottery.

You're not allowed to pick your shill accounts in lottos, there are laws against it.

In fake spaceship world, there are no such laws governing.

People even think somer is female, on the contrary, somer is a male, whose life partner is also male.

There's nothing wrong with that but it shows you how clueless people really are, how disillusioned.

Somer buries alternates in the dozens both in blink and in game, literally adopts different personalities for these alternates.

Many of which were created 2010 or later, as that's when blink was implemented and old alternates for banking use would not suffice.

3 shil accounts can buy 7, 2 and 1 ticket respectively getting 10/16 tickets on an ultra, people don't second guess when they lose when you set it up this way, furthermore you can revert to the legit lines of code anytime should there be an issue.

The reason why additional profits are sought is because Isk has a real world money value, it's a great system though as we're not allowed to talk about specifics in this area because it violates forum rules.

The reason why ccp cannot nail somer is because you can tell a computer to send a fake set of data indecipherable from real data as to spoof information which would identify your computer. The specifics of which are also not allowed to be discussed on the forums.

There's a whole world out there, those in the know, those who are not. Knowledge is power.

Quick shout out to somer who gave me a plex when my account had no time left and 1 hour was left on the 4 hours granted to plex the account up.

Quick shout out to the success of blink and the customers it holds, it's the perfect amount of rigging, well unless you consider how many people look at shills landing 10 tickets in less than 1 second. Somer states he bans automated accounts, you'd think he'd include his own shills. Nobody can click 10 tickets in a second with the constraints of the human brain and body. The signals from our brain travel quickly, when the signal turns into mechanical action - not so much. The reaction time required is not possible - not nearly by even those with the fastest recorded response times in human history.

The house takes a lot more than the difference in ticket price at the end of the day, and very much of that isk given away is simply given back to the system.

Final note. Somer lists having given out 1 quadrillion isk.
Final note, Andrev, somer's partner notes no wallet has over 5 trillion in game
Final note, if they kept 0.5% as the margin on 1 quadrillion they'd have a wallet exceeding 5T
The isk is laundered and there is no way in the computer savvy world to distinguish spoofed data from legitimate unique nodes
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#69 - 2013-08-09 21:19:12 UTC
Cyonsiaros FoilHat wrote:


FYN.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#70 - 2013-08-09 21:25:44 UTC
Anyway, shill accounts turn a guaranteed profit (and the rake on Blinks is not small) into a wager. Casinos are not in the business of gambling on raked games.


Incidentally, it is perfectly legal for casinos to use shills (and proposition players) in raked games (generally this is done as a customer service when there would otherwise not be enough players to keep the game going, not as a profit seeking endeavor).

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Obunagawe
#71 - 2013-08-09 21:26:53 UTC
The biggest issue I have with Somer is the legalised RMT aspect. I'm fine with the guy being an ingame quadrillionaire. But he's also an IRL multi-millionaire. None of the rest of us are allowed to RMT in such a way.
Mac Munoz
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#72 - 2013-08-09 23:25:45 UTC
I am unsure why everyone keeps saying that SOMER has some house edge or statistical advantage over you. You aren't playing against SOMER you are playing against other players. SOMER is just providing the means for you to play with those other players. And for her trouble she takes a profit on each lottery.

That all said it doesn't mean that they couldn't have their own alts playing as well, trust is just something you will have to have. They publish the code they use to generate the random numbers as well. She is as open as I feel she needs to be about this service while at the same time protecting herself from competition. At the end of the day the service is a form of gambling and can be directly likened to a state or country funded lottery in real life.
Solstice Project
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#73 - 2013-08-09 23:32:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Solstice Project
I'm posting this, because i've registered at somer blink today because of this thread.


I've invested 200mill ISK from my wallet and invested quite a bit of the winnings as blink credits (around 120mill)
and then started cashing out again. I've got my whole 200mill back and
made 150mill profit, while i still had around 150mill credits left.

I've played through, no break, for less than two hours.
(haven't actually looked at the watch, but it was def. less than two hours)

I'll play with the rest (now around 80mill) ... and then just keep running through my 400+ won tokens. :)
Bob Blunts
#74 - 2013-08-10 00:33:41 UTC
Obunagawe wrote:
The biggest issue I have with Somer is the legalised RMT aspect. I'm fine with the guy being an ingame quadrillionaire. But he's also an IRL multi-millionaire. None of the rest of us are allowed to RMT in such a way.


Citation needed.
Ace Boogi
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#75 - 2013-08-10 02:52:51 UTC
i recognized some of the names on the suspect list. i always see them winning but never did any research on them. i play blink occasionally, just small amounts here and there and the promos, and so far i'm in the green. i've won and cashed out roughly twice the amount i deposited, so although my account is empty atm from a losing streak, i still gained isk and basically doubled my investment, like paying for one plex and getting two. even if the first plex got eaten up by the investment and losses, the second one is pure profit. the only time i ever really had a 'suspect' moment was when i saw some guy with a ridiculous win ratio who got 2 carrier promos literally back to back.... just struck me as incredibly unlikely in 2 lottos with over 200 tickets each... but not impossible. i've also seen instances of the same number being selected twice in a row for promos, again unlikely but not impossible. overall, i'm satisifed with blink's service and i know plenty of other people that are as well. a couple of buddies have won pretty big on there in the long run.
Hawelt
Warpspeed Shipping Inc.
#76 - 2013-08-10 05:37:45 UTC
Cipio Alduin wrote:
You will in the end, loose close to, if not more, than you win and your original deposit, will be gone.



What else did you expect from a self-sustaining lottery ?!
That your company has to spend money to figure out the basic concepts behind the business model of casinos and lotteries is mind boggling.
cerbus
Carpe Noctem.
#77 - 2013-08-10 11:45:00 UTC
Eugene Kerner wrote:
omg every ******* lottery on this planet works with the similar systeme. Of course they gain more than they give out...

If you had to spend so much isk to see that pattern then you must be very good at what you do.


Not all to be fair.

This character is no longer affiliated with the Caldari Prime Pony Club.

Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#78 - 2013-08-10 15:17:26 UTC
cerbus wrote:
Eugene Kerner wrote:
omg every ******* lottery on this planet works with the similar systeme. Of course they gain more than they give out...

If you had to spend so much isk to see that pattern then you must be very good at what you do.


Not all to be fair.


[citation needed]

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

Rayo Atra
Guardians of the Volatile Wine
#79 - 2013-08-10 20:02:36 UTC
for the record,


ISK deposited: 1.6 Bil

Value of blinks won: 5.1 Bil

This does not include the winning to 2 promos which were a kronos and rorqual. which went for 3.1 bil total.

I am a casual blink player that is up 8 billion.


Tell you what I do like though: A killer. A dyed-in-the-wool killer. Cold-blooded, clean, methodical and thorough.

-Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

ISD Tyrozan
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#80 - 2013-08-10 21:10:27 UTC
Thread has been moved to Crime & Punishment.

ISD Tyrozan

Captain

Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)

Interstellar Services Department

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