Crime & Punishment

Hello

One of the great mysteries of EvE Online is, what do the owners of SOMER Blink i.e the CEO and such, get out of the such hard work they put in?

I then began to, shall we say, research as much as i could about SOMER Blink, what drove them? What did the community think of them? What were SHILL accounts. This is what i do for a living, im given, ah, cases as it was, my job is to discern patterns in things. This for me was a great challenge. So i began in earnest to find what i could, i spoke to over 73 people who play SOMER Blink, asking certain questions, including winners and losers.

I then made an account and began to purchase PLEX and started to drop ISK into BLINK. I began to record my winnings and my losses. It struck me, that i had found a pattern in SOMER Blink. I had also began to record certain people who play BLINK every day. I also began to record, which of these five people, won, what blinks and how much they where putting into BLINK every day.

The pattern i found in BLINK, was a very simple one, that most players of BLINK seem to not notice. I had to go through 12 billion ISK before i managed to spot this pattern.

When you play BLINK, you deposit a certain amount of ISK, it's very easy to forget exactly how much you deposit when you begin to loose and win with equal measure. But, if you win, say 2.7 billion ISK, you transfer that to your account. You then keep playing, run out of money and deposit more money. Eventually, you will loose the exact or CLOSE to what you have won in ISK, BLINK Makes sure of this. Otherwise, they would by fact and simple maths, run out of money. Even with the amount of tickets they sell and there "profit". It still does not add up. They would run out of money within a month to keep buying ships to give to players.

The second point was i looked into SHILL accounts. I began to record names that were playing blink, depositing in excess of 10 billion ISK a day easily. In most cases, more ISK than this. I also then began to record the WINS these players won.

Below are the top 5 players who i recorded in the 5-10 billion ISK mark, some times within 2-3 hours or other times over 2-3 days. Now, we all know that making this amount of ISK in EvE without buying a metric ton of PLEXES.

Now, here is your list.

Bloodraven22 <-- Deposited 21 billion ISK on capital ships in less than 2 hours, winning 98% of the lotteries
R0ot <-- Deposited over 6 billion in 1 hour, bidding on everything he could and winning 90% of the lotteries
ejen8208 <-- Deposited 3 billion 20 minutes on capital ships and only lost 4 of the lotteries
Lord Peanut <-- Suspect with the amount of ISK being put in
Armarria <-- Same as above

Now the interesting thing about this, is these accounts are playing at one point WITHOUT FAIL every day on SOMER Blink, always. There are 32 other accounts i have recorded that are "suspect". Always wining large amounts of ISK on ships and depositing more and more ISK. (which can be worked out by doing simple math on what the player is bidding on as such and what the player is winning.)

Now. over the course of three months. I deposited over 90 billion ISK and i won 27 billion ISK in lotteries. Which, as part of my research, i put back into BLINK. I subsequently lost 25.4 billion ISK. Which was just shy of what i had made in profit. As you can see from my theory above. This was a 3 month test, done, month by month.

SOMER Blink is a scam, a very good scam that breaks no rules. But a scam none the less. Now, this is not a bitter rage, nor a abusive footnote. This is being put into my monthly research project we have to do, we get an allowance for our research. What i spent was a very small amount of what we get. This SOMER Blink fascinated me, why would players, put so much time into a lottery system, on a MMO, to "help the player base" - I'm sorry, but that does not swing any which way. They do it, because, they can pocket MASSIVE amounts of ISK from players, whilst still, shall we say, working within the law of EvE.

Anyway, i will be publishing my full report once i have permission from my work. It's about 30 pages long.

My advice to any Eve player, is to not play this lottery. It's very clever, very in depth. But it is a scam. You will in the end, loose close to, if not more, than you win and your original deposit, will be gone.

Anyway, i harbor no ill will towards SOMER Blink. But, that being said, people should be warned and be aware. I am a married man with children. I am just fascinated by the depth of this scam i.e lottery. Not to mention, how much ISK has been scammed by BLINK, which now numbers in the trillions. Incredible, yet fascinating

Cipio

The sky is blue, water is wet, and the House always wins.

My inner child's OCD salutes you OP, for the effort.

Scam? Only if you've never, ever considered how a lottery or gambling house works. You shouldn't need months of research and billions of isk to realize that the vast majority of players lose all the money they deposit. This is how SOMER makes money.

It wouldnt even HAVE to be a scam to make obscene isk.

every blink is profit. It need not even go beyond that, for them to pocket billions a day.

You present little to no actual evidence to back up your idea that this is a scam.

So some one deposits 10b. So what? Maybe it's some guy in southern itally that makes millions a year--and he dropped 300$ on plex that day--which was significantly less than he just spent on the bottle of wine he drank while playing the game.

you might say some one wins 90% of the blinks they play--you didnt say that they also didnt play 90% of the tickets in a blink. Many do, on cap ships (just shy of the ship cost itself).

What if gambling on websites for rl cash is illegal in their country/state, and this is their only outlet? Sure, winning may not get them RL fame and fortune, but EVE fortunes can feel quite important nonetheless.

It doesnt have to be a scam at all, to make more isk than most alliances make alltogether.

if it was a scam on TOP of that--well, some one would come up with some hard evidence.

Obviously then we need goons to set up a lottery that people can believe in being fair and honest. I'd suggest a ticket price of 500m, bonus prizes of corp membership and moving your stuff to 0.0 once everything is contracted to their haulers (without collateral of course).

Well hey, it's more than most casino customers do, so there's that…

I don't even know what this is.

They make a rather large amount of isk on every lottery. Add up the prices of all the tickets, they exceed the cost of the prize. There is no way for the house to lose isk.

I applaud your post OP. I usually don't take time to read a whole post on some random topic in EVE but this really got my attention. I would actually enjoy seeing the 30 page research you did on SOMER.
Now I'm not saying this is "The Proof" that BLINK is a Scam, as there are a lot of variables that are usually associated with gambling, but I do look forward to more insight being brought into this through an actual long term trial.

Whoo. The forum posts that say "I Used Science! ™" are always the funniest reads.

"One of the great mysteries of EvE Online is, what do the owners of SOMER Blink i.e the CEO and such, get out of the such hard work they put in?"

If this was a mystery for you, I could have saved you a lot of time and trouble. Most of eve could have explained this one for you. Lotteries are profitable businesses.

"research as much as i could about SOMER Blink, what drove them?"

See above.

"What did the community think of them?"

Some people play a little, lose a lot, and hate us. Some people play a little, win a lot, and love us. Some people play a lot and win the statistically expected amount and think we're a normal gambling service, and some people don't like to gamble and/or have never heard of us.


"What were SHILL accounts."

This has always been one of the most confusing accusations. People say we make too much ISK for our own good running the service. Then, in the same breath, accuse us of doing a MASSIVE amount of extra work, and exposing the entire service to risk of destruction, just to squeeze out more ISK in addition to the amount they already claim is too much.

Sometimes, a person (or group of people) wins several in a row because they buy a larger number of tickets to a specific blink. "Buying better odds" essentially.

Sometimes, a person wins several in a row just due to sheer blind luck.

But with over 4,692,829 prizes given away (not counting the 36,269 free promo giveaways), we'd need a LOOOOTTT of alts to perpetuate a scam on the scale you're suggesting :p

And, as many others have pointed out over the months, every legitimately closed blink nets us a bit of profit. We'd be terminally stupid to rig the system in any way, as it would be the one sure-fire way to kill our business forever.

If you like, you're free to evaluate our method for choosing winners. The code we use to get the number is here. As you can see, we draw it from random.org. You can find their real-time statistics here and several peer-reviewed papers on the quality of their random-generator here.

And, in the end - if you genuinly believe we're running around with several million alts, you can stop reading here. There's no rational words that are going to overcome that level of.....creative thinking.



"This for me was a great challenge. So i began in earnest to find what i could, i spoke to over 73 people who play SOMER Blink"

Your earnesty failed you. Maybe the Institute of Finding Patterns in Video Game Fan Webpages didn't train you for this, but you can speak to over 400 Blink playing individuals in our channel right now, 'Somer Lotteries' though that's still a pitiful sample size, any crowd-based interviews are anecdotal bullshit anyway, so we can ignore that :)

"I began to record my winnings and my losses."

Do you mean your stats page? It records everoyne's wins and losses.

"It struck me, that i had found a pattern in SOMER Blink."

Cool! I recommend claiming your Nobel Prize imemdiately, if your boss at the Department of Finding Patterns in Things will allow it. Random.org has had several thousands of pages written in several hundreds of papers proving that there can be no predicted pattern. Your work will be a boon to the field of mathematics!

"I also began to record, which of these five people, won, what blinks and how much they where putting into BLINK every day."

Fun fact - A lot more than 5 people play Blink daily. And of all of them, none have the ability to check someone else's wallet for transactiosn. :)

"When you play BLINK, you deposit a certain amount of ISK, it's very easy to forget exactly how much you deposit"

Unless you read the "ISK Deposited" stat on your profile page. But I understand why a busy official from the Department of Finding Patterns in Things might miss that while conducting his thorough research.


"Eventually, you will loose the exact or CLOSE to what you have won in ISK,"

This is called "Regression to the mean" - there are many, many papers out there about it and its application to gambling :)


"Otherwise, they would by fact and simple maths, run out of money."

No :p There are no house bets. We don't lose money when Bob wins, or gain money with John wins. We gain money on every completed Blink, no matter what. You can add this to your testing protocal if you like - Buy every ticket to a blink. You win. Repeat forever. Win forever, every blink you play. I promise, we won't ever run out of money while you continue doing this.


"They would run out of money within a month to keep buying ships to give to players."

See above.

"depositing in excess of 10 billion ISK a day easily. In most cases, more ISK than this."

Many, many, many players enjoy gambling. They'll deposit enough to play something. If they win, they take the payout, then send some (or sometimes all) back and regamble. Repeat until they either run out of ISK for the day or decide to quit. Thus 10b of gambling is often the same 1b cycled over and over.

"Bloodraven22 <-- Deposited 21 billion ISK on capital ships in less than 2 hours, winning 98% of the lotteries
R0ot <-- Deposited over 6 billion in 1 hour, bidding on everything he could and winning 90% of the lotteries
ejen8208 <-- Deposited 3 billion 20 minutes on capital ships and only lost 4 of the lotteries"

Without exception, all three of these are incredibly wrong. Both on the deposit and on the win/loss numbers, for any day I can find in any of those players accounts. I will eagerly await the Department of Finding Patterns In Things official report that shows the data you gathered from our wallet and their private Blink profiles, though.