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Dear CCP, my economics proposal

First post
Author
Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#1 - 2013-07-30 05:24:51 UTC
Dear CCP,

Please freeze the number of minerals in game. Make a judgement call on total mineral allowance for the game and freeze it at a set number.

Secondly, adjust mineral distribution based on needs. Areas with low mining activity gain proportionally higher mineral quantities through dynamically generated belts/anomolies. Areas with high mining activity will progressively have fewer and fewer belts/ice fields to mine.

In other words fix your supply/demand issues by freezing the supply of minerals in the game and then by adjusting the locations it is acquired from. I work in the mining industry IRL and have some insight in to how it works *in reality*. I think that the biggest problem the game has is that more minerals are entering the system than leaving. Demand is disproportionate to supply. Prices on basic ships are too high because sales volume is messed up, suppliers aren't desperate enough for sales to drop prices because there are no supply shortages that create new markets opening up elsewhere.

To create for you an analogy: in australia mining investment has finally peaked and is now at a plateau because the overwhelming majority of potential sites have been discovered (exploration) and have either had their plots assigned or deemed unviable at current ore prices (there is an oversupply of ore to china at the moment).

Therefore now mining conglomerates are stepping up exploration and construction in Brazil/East Africa and other smaller locations like PNG in an effort to firstly: escape tariffs (empire taxes) and secondly to have back-up supplies of ore as Australia starts running out of viable mines (highsec drying up as mining outstrips supplies). The shipping of this new ore back to manufacturers in India and China is not a task undertaken lightly due to piracy (piracy! Holding haulers to ransom!) and other obvious logistical concerns. Manufacturers in China (highsec T2 manufacturers and their WH equivalents/alts) are not determining prices in the final POS locations eg such as your average hardware store because they have an oversupply of goods to their markets therefore middlemen are charging prices 500%-10000% higher than manufacturing costs for the goods because the market is oversupplied and the cost of their purchases don't require quick restituion. In other words Bunnings Warehouse charges 500% the cost to produce for a spanner because they know it doesn't matter if it takes 6 months to sell this spanner as it cost them so little to buy it from the manufacturer in the first place.

Once China (highsec manufacturers) starts to buy more ore from africa than from australia they will raise their prices on their goods to retailers to recouperate costs, the onflowing effect will be ultimately be lower prices on goods in stores because retailers will not be able to afford to hold on to the products for as long as before as they will need to sell higher volumes to keep the same incoming bulk of cash. By moving raw mineral acquisition to a static amount (and honestly make it currently lower than it is now by a very significant amount) you will control the number of supers being fielded, the inflation in markets, help to more evenly distribute activity across the bulk of space and in the end hopefully create the need for more nullsec alliances especially of the industry focussed kind as more militant empires will have to fight for territory more than before in order to have access to resources as the ones in their home systems dry up.

This balancing could extend to moons if T2 material acquisition is still regarded as problematic. An overfarmed moon runs dry over time and moons in other areas of space eventually start producing more minerals than before. Moons become conflict drivers more dynamically and naturally than before.

I'd really like Dr Eyjog's thoughts on my proposal, I do not claim to be a market specialist I am a miner by profession and by necessity understand something of the markets my profession relates to.
Antony E Stark
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#2 - 2013-07-30 13:34:32 UTC
It would certainly be interesting to see haulers ganked for minerals, as at present they're mostly ignored unless they're carrying something very very substantial - and even then since the volume of cargo is bulky.

I'm wondering where you're going with this and what you'd like to see as a result? Is it cheaper, more affordable and more readily available ships? Is it making mining more interactive and realistic?

I don't personally see an issue with either, however for someone that likes to "chill and shoot roids" having to travel 2-3 systems may be somewhat of an anti-incentive. The fewer miners and minerals there are available will create a higher demand since they'll be more scarce and the rarity of the minerals will drive the cost per unit up. This would lead to ships being more expensive - but it would introduce hauler piracy and ganking, or possibly even more hauling/escorts but the cost of which would be more expensive ships.

Whilst we may not see this IRL, there are many shared tendencies. Specifically the path of least resistance, and since this is an internet spaceships game adding more resistance to a miner "shooting roids" could, potentially back-fire. The economics may share similarities, but people are fickle, especially with their free/relaxation time.

I understand where you're going with supers, and James315 makes a good point regarding this on TheMittani.com. Something that needs a careful and weighted consideration I think.

At present there are plenty of minerals on the market, and plenty of ships. If you buy the minerals needed to build a ship, say a Thorax for example then there's possibly 1m profit in it. If you mine what you can in HS and purchase the rest, using your excess Trit to fund the rare mins, then possibly a little more liquid profit but you've really just traded (example figures) 5 Trit for 1 Zyd.

I remember when a 'rax would cost you about 7m, today it's 10m. Why? Only because it requires more minerals to build than it used to. The percentage profit margin is roughly the same, give or take a little and the area is sold in.

Anyway, I've rambled a bit here and was just trying to get a more clear picture of what your vision was - as mentioned at the start of my reply.
Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#3 - 2013-07-30 13:58:58 UTC
My vision is a world where static empires cannot endlessly accumulate resources without focussed CCP intervention. To cite the battle in fountain as a case-in-point example, as soon as the resource was moved a war started. If the system itself controlled based on an unbiased formula how a pre-defined number of minerals globally were distributed based on use it would force those wanting/needing the resources to be much more dynamic with their space.

Going back to moons as an example, over-mining the immediate ore around them will mean more minerals shipped in from further and further away in order to protect the asset. Therefore holding a moon while it is dry can potentially become untenable as the costs of supporting its defence become too high from a logistical perspective. If you walk away from the moon can you guarantee it will be so easy to take once it has resources again?

Miners will need to go further afield to gather their pay-check

Quote:
I don't personally see an issue with either, however for someone that likes to "chill and shoot roids" having to travel 2-3 systems may be somewhat of an anti-incentive. The fewer miners and minerals there are available will create a higher demand since they'll be more scarce and the rarity of the minerals will drive the cost per unit up. This would lead to ships being more expensive - but it would introduce hauler piracy and ganking, or possibly even more hauling/escorts but the cost of which would be more expensive ships.


When I first started EVE 4 years ago I was surprised it functions the way it does regarding mining. It is in a sense a no-risk occupation. I think the claims of miner ganking are dramatically overstated. Nullsec is even safer for these people because the entry nodes are policed by their own alliance. It's really only lowsec that is overly dangerous for miners as the mechanics of lowsec are irredeemably broken. By forcing miners to - by necessity - move to other areas of space in order to get paid you are opening this passive and tedious career to risk. I won't speculate on how the risk is overcome but I will remind everyone that ships need minerals and to allow mining to stop because it's inconvenient will only mean your empire inconveniently stops working.

For me sitting here it would be fascinating to get some hard facts on how many capitals there are in the game.

How many would there be in a mineral crisis? An *actual* mineral crisis? Would we see titans/dreads/supers being trashed or burnt just to free up minerals for other exercises? What about highsec and the hundreds of offline POSes? They would become valuable merc contracts - not initially maybe but eventually. Huge stockpiles of ships everywhere would need to be depleted in order to free up minerals and recycle them.

In my mind I see the initial 6 months as a universe-wide frenzy of killing. Desperate nullsec blocs recycling their ships and launching raids in to highsec to kill ships there as well, all in a bid to have access to more minerals.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#4 - 2013-07-30 14:35:27 UTC
This inevitably ends up with the "winners" of the '6 month frenzy' having a hard advantage that's locked in forever.

God help any new players in your proposed EVE.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#5 - 2013-07-30 14:59:37 UTC
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
In other words fix your supply/demand issues by freezing the supply of minerals in the game and then by adjusting the locations it is acquired from. I work in the mining industry IRL and have some insight in to how it works *in reality*. I think that the biggest problem the game has is that more minerals are entering the system than leaving. Demand is disproportionate to supply. Prices on basic ships are too high because sales volume is messed up, suppliers aren't desperate enough for sales to drop prices because there are no supply shortages that create new markets opening up elsewhere.

[citation needed]


Caleb Seremshur wrote:
I'd really like Dr Eyjog's thoughts on my proposal, I do not claim to be a market specialist I am a miner by profession and by necessity understand something of the markets my profession relates to.


I'm not Dr EyjoG, but our proposal is awful.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#6 - 2013-07-30 16:10:49 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
This inevitably ends up with the "winners" of the '6 month frenzy' having a hard advantage that's locked in forever.

God help any new players in your proposed EVE.


It would be hard for it to be any harder for them now. Enterprise will be the key here: brave newbies inc and big alliances actually recruiting the bee-swarm (figuratively) to help them take down larger targets.

Can you expand on how you see the hard-advantage working? Look at real life examples again. The US is pursuing an aggressive economic and military expansion in to other regions to secure resources. The same thing Britain/Spain/France/Ottomans did in earlier times. Nothing is truly static. I'm going to need your help on this issue you've raised. It should in theory force expeditionary forces from the big nullsec blocs to actually hold some areas of space instead of moving through them and doing nothing to them. By the same token it should also eventually devalue highsec mining a lot and incentivise mining in other regions. The hunger for money has made FW an attractive choice for clueless newbies who are willing to risk dying in lowsec. What's to say they wouldn't take similar risks if the best way to make a dollar was to jump in to lowsec and melt some rocks there?

Quote:
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
In other words fix your supply/demand issues by freezing the supply of minerals in the game and then by adjusting the locations it is acquired from. I work in the mining industry IRL and have some insight in to how it works *in reality*. I think that the biggest problem the game has is that more minerals are entering the system than leaving. Demand is disproportionate to supply. Prices on basic ships are too high because sales volume is messed up, suppliers aren't desperate enough for sales to drop prices because there are no supply shortages that create new markets opening up elsewhere.

[citation needed]


What? Maybe you didn't notice but ratting and L4's aren't exactly accessible to every hot off the press type newbie. I'm calling shenanigans here. Go recruit a newbie from a home system and help them to play then come back to me. I've done it twice.

Quote:
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
I'd really like Dr Eyjog's thoughts on my proposal, I do not claim to be a market specialist I am a miner by profession and by necessity understand something of the markets my profession relates to.


I'm not Dr EyjoG, but our proposal is awful.


[citation needed]

It's not realism that I'm pursuing it's a sustainable game. This game is 10 years old. How many more PLEX funded alts can it really support at a meager 500k accounts? 150k or so real players?
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#7 - 2013-07-30 16:49:23 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
Quote:
Quote:
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
In other words fix your supply/demand issues by freezing the supply of minerals in the game and then by adjusting the locations it is acquired from. I work in the mining industry IRL and have some insight in to how it works *in reality*. I think that the biggest problem the game has is that more minerals are entering the system than leaving. Demand is disproportionate to supply. Prices on basic ships are too high because sales volume is messed up, suppliers aren't desperate enough for sales to drop prices because there are no supply shortages that create new markets opening up elsewhere.

[citation needed]


What? Maybe you didn't notice but ratting and L4's aren't exactly accessible to every hot off the press type newbie. I'm calling shenanigans here. Go recruit a newbie from a home system and help them to play then come back to me. I've done it twice.


No no, see, you have no evidence to back up virtually everything you wrote there. More minerals entering the game than leaving? No evidence. Demand disproportionate to supply? No evidence. Prices on basic ships are too high? Pure opinion.

The funny thing is that there's actually a decent bit of evidence to suggest that you are completely wrong. I invite you to examine what happened to mineral prices (and thus ship prices) after CCP removed the mineral fountain that the drone regions represented, for example.

In any case, there are a lot of reasons beyond a shaky foundation why this is an awful idea, but I don't have time to get into them right now. Perhaps I'll remember later.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#8 - 2013-07-30 17:43:29 UTC
I know the two dev blogs you are referring to but they are proving very hard to find. I am currently being station camped in guristas npc space and cannot JC out. Otherwise I would be happy to do the simple act of taking a screenshot of market data for you from the games own market browser. I will wait until I am able to do this on my main account to promote authenticity.

For now those couple of dev blogs that I could find which specifically addressed drone alloys it shows sharp increases in price post launch of each expansion. A scorpion in blackrise has gone from 55mil to 120.

Now I am aware that mineral costs were adjusted recently along with a change to mining and how it is achieved itself.

http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/28587
http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-shakeup-blog



This is the big one here:
http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/28612

Cherry picking a bit here:

key learnings are players are now more productive per head
Production is up
mineral prices up
ship prices over 2-year period - uptrending.

Now that blog post is over a year old.

In the companion forum post found here:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1165928#post1165928

On the first page people are celebrating price speculators driving prices of minerals up. Coupled with harsh drops at appropriate times reminiscent real life yet again where market bots and savvy traders make money by artificially collapsing a market. I've done it myself in Jita just recently with Mjolnir cruise missiles. Prices went from 1600/unit to 580 in 2 weeks. Over supply when made quickly available will drop prices naturally. That's how it works. But look at prices for something like the Golem in Jita and its a nearly dead flat 920 mil for a whole year. Golems are built and sold probably as fast as possible. Average sale order is 1-5 units (http://www.eve-central.com/home/quicklook.html?typeid=28710) on by volume. Because they are sold nearly as soon as they are made the price remains stable. Since the market doesn't look back further than 1 year I cannot really talk about pre-drone alloy nerf days but if you can provide that info - and I'm patently wrong - I'll eat my words.

Prices of minerals would rise sure but that doesn't automatically correlate to an increase in ship price. Not automatically. In the long run the need to manufacture and sell as fast as possible would drive prices down because competition between manufacturers/retailers on the matter would increase.

FWIW I have a citation for you

Quote:
Is it any wonder that a company pushing for 100$ profit per sale is faltering so badly?

Hell, you can’t spend a dollar and make ten.

Apple charges 649 for an iphone 5, and makes 442$ per phone.

They spend 1 dollar and make 2 dollars.

Toyota, the most profitable car dealer, makes around 2k per vehicle sold with an average price around 29k.

So for every 13.5 dollars they make 1.

You might recognise it, you might not. This guy was an investor in a game company that is going through right now what I'm seeing in EVEs game market. In the last 6 months I have received record numbers of sale offers from said company and it is to me a desperate sign. Sales volumes are down and prices rising.

This is why I want Eyjogs input, I really want to see some aggregates of the ingame market and see what's going on. Also some closure on the last CSM summits comments by CCP about trying to break down real players vs alt accounts. They might not want to publicise that information but if they did and I am close with my estimation then perhaps we can all sit down at the table and start talking about ways to fix the retention issue as a community instead of needing CCP to do all the work in an MMO designed around player-created events.
Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#9 - 2013-07-30 17:55:47 UTC
I feel I should throw this in here while I'm still thinking of it

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2970310#post2970310

Tiericide reputedly has used mineral costs as a means to increase the costs of ships. But to what end? Curb inflation? Rise specifically cites increased player income and claims that new players should be able to afford it. Those are his claims and some metrics released today should confirm it over all?

Citing FW as being a major source of ISK for new players is a bit of a straw man since you need some pretty substantial isk already to buy the big stuff. Where does a 14 day old character make MOST of his money? As in CSM summit minutes: when does a new player stop being new?
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#10 - 2013-07-30 18:43:45 UTC
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
This is the big one here:
http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/28612

Cherry picking a bit here:

key learnings are players are now more productive per head
Production is up
mineral prices up
ship prices over 2-year period - uptrending.

Now that blog post is over a year old.

In the companion forum post found here:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1165928#post1165928

On the first page people are celebrating price speculators driving prices of minerals up. Coupled with harsh drops at appropriate times reminiscent real life yet again where market bots and savvy traders make money by artificially collapsing a market. I've done it myself in Jita just recently with Mjolnir cruise missiles. Prices went from 1600/unit to 580 in 2 weeks. Over supply when made quickly available will drop prices naturally. That's how it works.

The speculation people are referring to was based on the removal of the drone alloys which had happened in Crucible. People were betting - quite accurately, as it turns out - that mineral prices would rise when the massive fountain was removed. Shocker, right? Your takeaways?

Production was up because the game was growing, and as population within the drone regions grew with it there was a virtually infinitely scaling fountain of easily obtained minerals; gun mining was far easier than regular mining as it requires no specialization many players see as "useless".
Mineral prices were up because of said speculation, which started well before the expansion.
Overall up-trend? Well, yes, the speculation would do that wouldn't it. One of the classic and well known cycles in eve is a tendency for Tech I materials (and by extension, ship prices) to drop during the summer and rise during the winter. In 2011 the fall got reversed thanks to the speculation kicking off.

Caleb Seremshur wrote:
But look at prices for something like the Golem in Jita and its a nearly dead flat 920 mil for a whole year. Golems are built and sold probably as fast as possible. Average sale order is 1-5 units (http://www.eve-central.com/home/quicklook.html?typeid=28710) on by volume. Because they are sold nearly as soon as they are made the price remains stable. Since the market doesn't look back further than 1 year I cannot really talk about pre-drone alloy nerf days but if you can provide that info - and I'm patently wrong - I'll eat my words.

Use http://www.eve-markets.net/ for longer term historical data - find item, click history tab, put in however many days back you want to view.

But it's a bit hard - impossible, really - to argue that the ships are sold "as soon as they are made, thus the price remains stable". If ships were actually sold as soon as they were made, prices would spiral out of control. The market would constantly be empty, and people could charge whatever they wanted up until the market could take no more. Then you'd have a flurry of price warring until the price got back to whatever the market would bear, at which point it'd be rapidly cleared and the cycle would repeat.

Except that's not actually what happens. There's typically a healthy supply of any given item on the market, but nothing even coming close to your 500-10000% markup by the warehouse or whatever in your weird RL analogy. Sometimes that gets cleared if there's a reason for demand to suddenly spike (Goonfleet adopting Megathrons did this to the hulls and many items, for example), and sensing extra profit, producers swarm and oversupply the market, then bugger off as it's saturated, and eventually it returns to normal.

Caleb Seremshur wrote:
Prices of minerals would rise sure but that doesn't automatically correlate to an increase in ship price. Not automatically. In the long run the need to manufacture and sell as fast as possible would drive prices down because competition between manufacturers/retailers on the matter would increase.

Yes it does. Price increases always result in a rapid correction up to or above the new price, often as market traders buy things out for a quick buck. The only real exceptions to this have been with Tiericide, as in many cases the sheer bulk of excess ships built at below the new prices defies attempts to correct the price.

Caleb Seremshur wrote:
FWIW I have a citation for you

You might recognise it, you might not. This guy was an investor in a game company that is going through right now what I'm seeing in EVEs game market. In the last 6 months I have received record numbers of sale offers from said company and it is to me a desperate sign. Sales volumes are down and prices rising.

I do not recognize it. However, it's completely irrelevant to any of the points you are trying to defend with it. Try again, perhaps, using in-game data rather than random quotes from mystery investors.


And to your last post, tiericide has increased mineral costs so as to balance out the costs of ships within a class and make the choice to use one ship over another based on the stats, not cost. Why they increased them instead of decreased them (or averaged them out to somewhere in the middle) is another question, but any answer to that is baseless speculation anyway.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#11 - 2013-07-30 18:53:14 UTC
Also, does "static mineral quantity" mean the sum of raw minerals/ore + ore yet to be mined in asteroids + minerals contained in ships/fittings/etc is fixed? Just raw minerals/ore + ore yet mined, and to make more respawn you have to use it? Please clarify .

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#12 - 2013-07-30 20:22:39 UTC
Sum of all current minerals in game. In effect take a snapshot of total mineral value of all things in game and freeze it at that. Adjust total future value down and reduce respawn rates of mining anomolies/belts until deficiency causes recession in market.

Quote:
I do not recognize it. However, it's completely irrelevant to any of the points you are trying to defend with it. Try again, perhaps, using in-game data rather than random quotes from mystery investors.


And to your last post, tiericide has increased mineral costs so as to balance out the costs of ships within a class and make the choice to use one ship over another based on the stats, not cost. Why they increased them instead of decreased them (or averaged them out to somewhere in the middle) is another question, but any answer to that is baseless speculation anyway.


The quote is relevant as it refers to sales volumes vs production costs. Not specified within my quote there was that the product had a 1000% mark up on production. The company was driving itself out of business because it couldn't create customers and wouldn't budge on lowering prices. If you observed the same thing in EVE nothing would happen because you just mine more minerals and corps can stagnate/hibernate. In reality you go out of business and your assets get liquidated. On a semi-related note this goes back to my suggestion elsewhere to introduce corp fees to keep corp tickers etc valid but that is getting off topic.

Quote:
Yes it does. Price increases always result in a rapid correction up to or above the new price, often as market traders buy things out for a quick buck. The only real exceptions to this have been with Tiericide, as in many cases the sheer bulk of excess ships built at below the new prices defies attempts to correct the price.


It's late for me. I'm not really comprehending what you're saying. From where I'm sitting your working on the basis that the status quo of these trading/market/industry alts would remain intact instead of them being unsubbed/repurposed as their utility drops from starved markets. I must be misreading something here but doesn't one normally build things at below the market average for sale?

Quote:

Use http://www.eve-markets.net/ for longer term historical data - find item, click history tab, put in however many days back you want to view.

But it's a bit hard - impossible, really - to argue that the ships are sold "as soon as they are made, thus the price remains stable". If ships were actually sold as soon as they were made, prices would spiral out of control. The market would constantly be empty, and people could charge whatever they wanted up until the market could take no more. Then you'd have a flurry of price warring until the price got back to whatever the market would bear, at which point it'd be rapidly cleared and the cycle would repeat.

Except that's not actually what happens. There's typically a healthy supply of any given item on the market, but nothing even coming close to your 500-10000% markup by the warehouse or whatever in your weird RL analogy. Sometimes that gets cleared if there's a reason for demand to suddenly spike (Goonfleet adopting Megathrons did this to the hulls and many items, for example), and sensing extra profit, producers swarm and oversupply the market, then bugger off as it's saturated, and eventually it returns to normal.


That mark-up figure is based on my first-hand knowledge. Did you know a shirt at your local clothing store costs less than 20c each? And you pay HOW much for it? I have a friend who is in marketting as a career, his comment was simple: even when a company sells at -75% or even -85% the listed price they are still making a profit, before rent considerations.

Golem price looking back 1100 days to before any mineral rebalancing in my memory produces almost static price and supply/demand metrics. Similarly almost static for Mjolnir furies, but IMO ammo is a special case because so much is used and lost during a battle. Let's look at something more resilient.

The megathron shows volumes down prices up. At first glance. In the last 2 years prices have risen while volume traded has remained similar. In the last 6 months, at around the time the battleship mineral cost rebalance was announced there was a brief dip in volume and an increase in price but.. the price is trending down overall now and at a sharper rate than at any time in the last 3 years. That could all change but I see the median price settling slightly lower than according to that graph.

Speculation is the sole driving factor behind price on everything in existence, the speculation that gold is hard to acquire and doesn't deteriorate and therefore makes an ideal hard currency is just materialism. Yet gold's price is all over the place in the last 4 years going from $450 US an ounce to $1900 during the peak and now trending down again. There is a finite supply of gold unlike tritanium. Unless you know something I don't if all fighting in the game stopped tritanium production would never stop from a game-mechanic-spawn/generation perspective.

contd
Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#13 - 2013-07-30 20:51:48 UTC
Quote:

The speculation people are referring to was based on the removal of the drone alloys which had happened in Crucible. People were betting - quite accurately, as it turns out - that mineral prices would rise when the massive fountain was removed. Shocker, right? Your takeaways?

Production was up because the game was growing, and as population within the drone regions grew with it there was a virtually infinitely scaling fountain of easily obtained minerals; gun mining was far easier than regular mining as it requires no specialization many players see as "useless".
Mineral prices were up because of said speculation, which started well before the expansion.
Overall up-trend? Well, yes, the speculation would do that wouldn't it. One of the classic and well known cycles in eve is a tendency for Tech I materials (and by extension, ship prices) to drop during the summer and rise during the winter. In 2011 the fall got reversed thanks to the speculation kicking off.


Yes prices rose but what else could be expected? It's the same situation as today, but we observe it accurately because it was one major event affecting one source and happened in the space of one patch.

Freezing the mineral count in game is one part of a three-pronged attack on the games economy. It forces a redistribution of man-power and industry to high-value locations which eventually deplete and then require mobilisation again. The mobilisation creates weaknesses that can be attacked as static defences are now no defence by association of the need to move resource collection away from it.

The second prong is limiting operational areas for markets based on only being able to sell where you have a store ergo forcing people to move their retailing to other locations and thus decentralise markets and finally by extension lower logistical costs for those whom it concerns. When a given station runs out of corporation offices it creates a very real demand for realestate. We observe Jita being the biggest market place in the game but only due to convenience. If 4-4 became a kick-out station, or, if it had the number of out-in pipes cut to 3 people would just find somewhere else to trade.

The third prong,is again, the dissemination of inactive corps, accounts and their assets. By creating a tax that needs payment monthly where the failure to pay is the dissolution of the corp you reduce inactive corps. By creating a kill-timer on inactive players you achieve a reduction in placeholder toons who have no purpose and most probably will never return to the game. If the corporations assets are not claimed by a suitably titled (and active) corp member then the assets are deleted from the game completely (which is realistically the same as sitting unused for the rest of time) and this overall affects the mineral volume available to players (post bulk aggregate projection reduction). This third prong directly affects the first two.

But again it all hinges on having a static mineral volume for the game. Things do, in a sense, only get cheaper to manufacture in EVE as toons raise their SP in related fields. Research and high standings cut the waste down further. There doesn't seem to be a lot of objectivity from industry players about whether or not their production volumes are beneficial to the game. The production volumes that tie in to an (I assume) infinite supply of raw material that beyond being unrealistic, promotes turtling and leads to the stagnation I see being complained about by ex nullsec players. With no reason to fight what else is there to do except go back to theme-park gaming such as FW or wardecs? Pay a fee and shoot your enemies for a week - awesome. In the end not much of an accomplishment really. Nothing that would go down in the history books.

Tying back in to my earlier comment about the caracal -over 2 years net sell orders static, buy orders reduced. This is a trend that suggests oversupply.

Basic cruise missiles showing an increase in supply and static buy orders.

I'm not going to do a breakdown on the entire game here it's interesting for me to see that many items aren't showing a corresponding rise in buy orders along with sell orders which says to me that people aren't interested in bargaining for items. Prices have increased universally but people aren't haggling. Someone eventually will return to Rise's comment about ISK generation being higher than ever across all player ages but with a reduction in bounty payouts, the incursion nerf and drone alloy nerf I find it hard to believe this is the work of genuinely new players and not alts.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#14 - 2013-07-31 03:19:42 UTC
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
Sum of all current minerals in game. In effect take a snapshot of total mineral value of all things in game and freeze it at that. Adjust total future value down and reduce respawn rates of mining anomolies/belts until deficiency causes recession in market.

Yeah, okay, so just as idiotic as I thought. Please explain to me how this won't spike the price to ridiculous levels again? I thought your goal with this crazy exercise was to make things cheaper.

Quote:
IThe quote is relevant as it refers to sales volumes vs production costs. Not specified within my quote there was that the product had a 1000% mark up on production. The company was driving itself out of business because it couldn't create customers and wouldn't budge on lowering prices. If you observed the same thing in EVE nothing would happen because you just mine more minerals and corps can stagnate/hibernate. In reality you go out of business and your assets get liquidated. On a semi-related note this goes back to my suggestion elsewhere to introduce corp fees to keep corp tickers etc valid but that is getting off topic.

In light of the bolded, it's even less relevant than I thought then. EVE does not work that way. This is not real life where producing *things* requires specialized equipment and knowledge. Anyone with the training can build anything they want. Think of what real life would be like if literally every person on the planet had a replicator a la Star Trek, and that's EVE's industrial environment.

Quote:
It's late for me. I'm not really comprehending what you're saying. From where I'm sitting your working on the basis that the status quo of these trading/market/industry alts would remain intact instead of them being unsubbed/repurposed as their utility drops from starved markets. I must be misreading something here but doesn't one normally build things at below the market average for sale?


If material prices rise such that a given item on the market is listed for less than it's production cost, it's almost always very quickly bought out and relisted. Likewise, if material prices do the opposite and fall well below the market price, the market price will follow. This would continue to be true even if you somehow restricted supply.

Quote:

That mark-up figure is based on my first-hand knowledge. Did you know a shirt at your local clothing store costs less than 20c each? And you pay HOW much for it? I have a friend who is in marketting as a career, his comment was simple: even when a company sells at -75% or even -85% the listed price they are still making a profit, before rent considerations.

I'm well aware of the difference between production and retail prices - that's not why your analogy is silly. It's silly because you're stretching some real life comparison well beyond credulity and assuming things that aren't even accurate in EVE to make it fit.

Quote:
Golem price looking back 1100 days to before any mineral rebalancing in my memory produces almost static price and supply/demand metrics. Similarly almost static for Mjolnir furies, but IMO ammo is a special case because so much is used and lost during a battle. Let's look at something more resilient.

The megathron shows volumes down prices up. At first glance. In the last 2 years prices have risen while volume traded has remained similar. In the last 6 months, at around the time the battleship mineral cost rebalance was announced there was a brief dip in volume and an increase in price but.. the price is trending down overall now and at a sharper rate than at any time in the last 3 years. That could all change but I see the median price settling slightly lower than according to that graph.

As I said before, both of those items have the majority of their cost contributed by the Tech II materials in them, trying to use them as an example of anything for mineral prices is folly. Also, I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that they're "static". The golem is up 50% over the past three years, and your cruise missiles up 100%.

As for the megathron, it's a stretch, to me, to claim that the volume is down because of the data in 2010/early 2011 - that looks like it could be a data glitch. There was something similar with the Golem, and you can see similar spikes in other items as well that make no sense. Nevertheless, aside from that volume has been fairly static. Prices have risen over the past two years because mineral prices have risen, and the price is trending down now so sharply because a) mineral prices are falling from their Tiericide peaks and b) the CFC just adopted the ship en-masse starting about a month ago, which needless to say caused a spike in the price well above the production cost. Now that we're well supplied and demand has dropped off, the price is correcting. Were minerals to remain steady at their current price, I'd expect megathrons would fall only a few million isk more than where they are now. If minerals continue to fall, so will they.

In short, there's nothing unusual about any of the movements in price. I'd say that none of it explains anything you're trying to claim, except I've rightly lost track of what you're trying to claim now, and only see you waving your arms at random items.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#15 - 2013-07-31 03:27:09 UTC
Quote:
The third prong,is again, the dissemination of inactive corps, accounts and their assets. By creating a tax that needs payment monthly where the failure to pay is the dissolution of the corp you reduce inactive corps. By creating a kill-timer on inactive players you achieve a reduction in placeholder toons who have no purpose and most probably will never return to the game. If the corporations assets are not claimed by a suitably titled (and active) corp member then the assets are deleted from the game completely (which is realistically the same as sitting unused for the rest of time) and this overall affects the mineral volume available to players (post bulk aggregate projection reduction). This third prong directly affects the first two.

This is an even worse idea than your base idea. There's no better way to ensure that people who quit or take a break don't come back than to delete their character(s).

Quote:
Things do, in a sense, only get cheaper to manufacture in EVE as toons raise their SP in related fields. Research and high standings cut the waste down further.

The savings you get in manufacturing from SP has a cap that is very easily achievable. The savings from research also have a cap, and have diminishing returns as well, rather harsh ones in fact. A Megathron at ME0 costs 160.7m isk to build. Spend two months researching that to ME20 and the cost is 149.5m, which is reasonably worth it. That next point to ME21 only saves you 25k isk, and taking it to ME200 would only save an additional 500k isk over ME20. So, no, things are not getting cheaper and cheaper... and even if they were, didn't you say one of your goals here is to make things cheaper?

You did, so explain to me how starving the game for minerals achieves that? Remember, the drone regions were a massive drop in supply, and prices rose. You're proposing the same thing.

Quote:

There doesn't seem to be a lot of objectivity from industry players about whether or not their production volumes are beneficial to the game. The production volumes that tie in to an (I assume) infinite supply of raw material that beyond being unrealistic, promotes turtling and leads to the stagnation I see being complained about by ex nullsec players. With no reason to fight what else is there to do except go back to theme-park gaming such as FW or wardecs? Pay a fee and shoot your enemies for a week - awesome. In the end not much of an accomplishment really. Nothing that would go down in the history books.

Tying back in to my earlier comment about the caracal -over 2 years net sell orders static, buy orders reduced. This is a trend that suggests oversupply.

Basic cruise missiles showing an increase in supply and static buy orders.

Oh, that's right, you seem to think there's some sort of massive stockpile of *goods* sitting around that enables people to charge huge markups. There isn't, and people don't. Need proof? I already cited the build cost of a Megathron, compare that to the market price (currently around 160m). That doesn't really jive with the whole 500-10000% markup thing.

With your data points in particular, the caracal volume information is flat out broken and none of the cruise missiles actually show what you're suggesting. They've actually all been surprisingly static up until the recent buff they got.


The fact that you want to make nullsec more active and interesting is laudable, but there are better ways to do it than wrecking the game's economy.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#16 - 2013-07-31 06:00:29 UTC
Obviously some of the data I looked at is skewed if you're telling the truth. I've been awake for over 30 hours now and will address the points once I've had some rest.

At the root I know that it will be an extremely harsh measure but I genuinely feel it is a necessary change to minerals. Prices will rise working under the presumption that existing diversity of goods are still being produced at their current rates. Adjusting mineral prices will affect how people fly in the same way that people statistically drive nissan/toyota/ford more than BMW because their cost is adjusted for the market. This is why I was specific to mention supply/demand more than price because supply and demand indicate actual needs of the market over ISK where theoretically inflation is occuring at faucets as well as sinks. In my estimation though there's just more work being done for the same money. Raw ISK faucets have been nerfed in to the dirt. The market itself isn't an ISK sink because the money is just trading hands and not leaving the system. Destruction of ships removes an arbitrary % of their value from the game permanently.

The end-game impact I hope would see EVE returning to a time where owning a couple of battleships are a significant personal holding for the middle income player, not a means to an end on the way to T2 battleships or dreads.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#17 - 2013-07-31 06:52:27 UTC
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
This inevitably ends up with the "winners" of the '6 month frenzy' having a hard advantage that's locked in forever.

God help any new players in your proposed EVE.


It would be hard for it to be any harder for them now...


While this is true, you have proposed an excellent way of facing and exceeding that challenge.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#18 - 2013-07-31 06:54:05 UTC
"The market itself isn't an ISK sink because the money is just trading hands and not leaving the system. "

Lol

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#19 - 2013-07-31 07:15:26 UTC
What's so funny? That's literally how the economy functions, npc seeded items and LP stores aside. Traders don't just take their money and flush it down their space toilets. Destroyed ships are lost currency. The market is merely redistribution.

Quote:
While this is true, you have proposed an excellent way of facing and exceeding that challenge.


We're talking about a game that was based on the idea that no more than 5 or 6 titans would ever be built based on the costs alone. Had the mineral market been frozen then at that point in time it might have come true. Now even piddly little alliances have titans. I'd love to know your impression on that point. There is a catagorical oversupply of inexhaustible mineral deposits in this game and it makes things that should matter an exercise of having enough people and enough time. I've seen titan losses be trivialised by both aggressor and victim with statements alluding to the remaining hundreds that are left.

NPCs are functioning like a defacto bank, providing extra money to the system in place of debt through non-reparable bounties. Minerals are from what seems evident to me (thanks to titans and supers alone) an uncontrolled resource as well. CCP have just recently adjusted mineral output UP in some asteroids, I'm guessing to help oversupply the market more and drive prices down again. It might work, but I doubt it because its still the same people mining it and manufacturing from it.

If freezing mineral supply to the game seems outlandish and implausible as a way of fixing the game because of crashing the market and being hostile to new players (wherever they are) then that's exactly what I want to hear. It's exactly what I want to hear because losing a super or titan will actually matter. It would change the whole scope of how fleets are created.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#20 - 2013-07-31 09:39:32 UTC
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
What's so funny?


Your blatant ignorance of the game mechanics you're so pompously lecturing us on.

ClueBat™: Every market transaction sinks ISK because of the non-recoverable transaction fees. The market is one of the biggest ISK sinks in EVE.

Anyway, please don't let me deter you from further posting.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

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