These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Historical market data and you

First post First post
Author
Previous Topic Next Topic
CCP Stillman
C C P
C C P Alliance
#1 - 2011-10-20 14:24:25 UTC  |  Edited by: CCP Stillman
Greetings marketeers!

In August we released a bunch of market data for all of you to use for whatever cool things you could come up with.

I wanted to check in with all of you to hear if this data is something you'd want to see regular releases of.

So if you use this data, maybe just post a brief snippet about what cool things you've come up with from it. If you don't wanna post about it here, please feel free to shoot me an evemail. Any input on if the data is useful is much appreciated, and will help us make sure that delivering this data on a regular basis helps the community.

Thanks in advance,
Stillman

Just a random dude in Team Security.
Josefius
13th Tribe of Kobol Expeditionary
#2 - 2011-10-20 14:28:42 UTC
Yeah, sounds cool.

You have enemies? Good, that means you stood up for something, sometime in your life.

-Winston Churchill
Bloodpetal
Tir Capital Management Group
#3 - 2011-10-20 14:42:57 UTC


Not sure who has done what, but I'd say that it takes time for players to develop the tools and methods to process all the information especially if they don't know there's a reliable consistency from CCP to release this data. Not to be inflammatory, but especially with the way things have been moving forward. There is some amazing talent out there, don't give up on them yet!


I hope some people have come up with some great things - although I'm interested in trying to dig in there for some information I haven't had the time to yet, and also relevantly - been distracted with the many other things happening around EVE and so on.


I'd say that if you don't see a ton of responses yet, here, don't drop the program yet or think it's the players not caring about the information being released. We know it's a powerful and awesome thing to dig into, just give us some time to get there.

Where I am.
Meissa Anunthiel
Redshift Industrial
Rooks and Kings
#4 - 2011-10-20 14:46:56 UTC
I used that data to compare profitability of invention/manufacture of T2/T3 items and see how it deviated from my values collected from other sources.

It's very useful in this that I don't have to get rid of crap data that regularly makes its way to eve-central and other market dump sites.

A few other uses I'll keep to myself, but that's about it.

And yes, I'd obviously love to get more of these

Member of CSM 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7
Callean Drevus
Perkone
Caldari State
#5 - 2011-10-20 19:54:19 UTC
I used that data to do nothing actually, but I'm still planning to import it to my market website.

If the data were provided regularly, that would be awesome, since that will make the uploading of history a thing of the past, and that means my uploaders have more time free to upload actual order information.

I'm using the history data in general for a plenthora of things, but I do not think this is the place do describe them (see the thread in Technology Lab).

Developer/Creator of EVE Marketeer
Barakach
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#6 - 2011-10-22 23:16:36 UTC
I have a few ideas that I haven't gotten around to implementing, but the data looks very useful.
Greygal
Redemption Road
Affirmative.
#7 - 2011-10-24 14:31:02 UTC
I used the data to find some items to build and trade that I wasn't already doing so - and have been very pleased with the results (i.e., I found some market opportunities that were not obvious!) That was from a quick and dirty analysis of the data, soon as I have some more time I actually plan on doing deeper analysis of the data.

What you do for yourself dies with you, what you do for others is immortal.

Free weekly public roams & monthly NewBro new player roams!

Visit Redemption Road or join mailing list REDEMPTION ROAMS for information
Brynden Blackfish
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2011-10-29 03:47:25 UTC


This is definitely something I'd like to see more of. Thank you for your work!
Alain Kinsella
#9 - 2011-10-29 06:30:42 UTC
Still interested in this, just no time to go over the data. Getting the file in a non-database format, such as CSV, would help here.

Also, any chance you'll extend the format to something closer to OHLC? Even just HLC (with 'Close' being the price @ DT) would suffice.

"The Meta Game does not stop at the game. Ever."

Currently Retired / Semi-Casual (pending changes to RL concerns).
Wind Jammer
Molden Heath Software Company
#10 - 2011-11-01 00:14:36 UTC
Hi CCP Stillman,

I was going to use the data to make a lot of ISK from the Winter Expansion by doing some analysis, but I've bought a load of P4 PI goods instead so I don't have any ISK left to speculate on moon minerals. Anyway, I'll explain what I did, even though I won't be acting on my analysis.

I assumed that some moon minerals would be nerfed, and some would be boosted. To work out which, I decided to compare the actual sales of *things with moongoo in them* with supply, and see what was over/under constained. I would then re-apply the same analysis after the patch and see where the big changes were. (I suppose, basically repeating Akita T's Dominion analysis, but with real sales figures).

First to deconstruct every item in Eve down to the raw moon minerals, I pulled the quantities for each item out of my existing app, Eve Atomizer. I only factored end products, and not raw moon ore, or processed moon materials.

Then I took the latest 12 months of data from CCP Stillman's dump and grabbed the total quantities of each item sold that contained moongoo, and counted the volumes for each item.

I multiplied the moongoo quantities with the end-item sale quantities to get the total amount of moongoo-inside-end-products shifted on the market in the 12-month period. I appreciate that mods and ships can be sold more than once. These figures are here [url]http://eveproductionmixer.appspot.com/moongoo_demand.html[/url].

Now, to get to the juicy numbers. I looked up the number of each moon type on dotlan maps. I assume that each moon produces 100 units of goo per hour for the year in question. Then I compared these supply figures with my previous sales figures. The figures were pretty astonishing so I assumed I made a mistake. I didn't upload those numbers, but I've pasted them here:

typeName Market movement Supply Usage (%)
Technetium 43,446,853,168.72 239,148,000 18,167.35
Caesium 24,860,198,785.81 224,256,000 11,085.63
Vanadium 49,804,437,406.67 594,804,000 8,373.25
Hafnium 24,999,108,655.72 432,744,000 5,776.88
Platinum 47,779,573,646.56 905,784,000 5,274.94
Neodymium 8,598,037,981.71 176,952,000 4,858.97
Cadmium 28,377,947,698.43 704,304,000 4,029.22
Mercury 8,728,760,373.12 331,128,000 2,636.07
Scandium 24,805,897,669.20 1,360,428,000 1,823.39
Chromium 13,317,812,920.22 755,988,000 1,761.64
Titanium 11,939,462,248.06 1,001,268,000 1,192.43
Dysprosium 381,059,601.44 121,764,000 312.95
Promethium 438,406,789.75 160,308,000 273.48
Tungsten 3,095,875,718.83 1,978,884,000 156.45
Cobalt 3,406,871,948.97 2,508,864,000 135.79
Thulium 55,092,515.25 114,756,000 48.01

Now I assumed that I'd cut out most of the speculation out by only factoring in end-user mods/ships. But clearly not, given that 239m units of tech could be produced in 12 months but 43b units (as part of ships/mods) passed through the market!!!!!! Obviously I looked for errors, but I couldn't find any. I'm still not convinced I haven't made a mistake. What?

Anyway, that's my interesting, or not interesting perhaps, story of what I did what the data. It was an interesting day of coding and number crunching Lol. I still plan to use it in my existing EVE Production Mixer app when the data is published regularly.

http://eveproductionmixer.appspot.com
Kandreath
De Re Metallica
#11 - 2011-11-09 21:10:54 UTC
I've used it to chart PI profit and loss history and confirm some of my own observations.

Most recently I've created a candlestick chart for PLEX in Jita to see if it could help predict movements there.

It is very handy.

Perhaps an issue is that in general marketeers are secretive about the items they look at and how they look at them.
Lutz Major
Austriae Est Imperare Orbi Universo
#12 - 2011-11-10 14:49:23 UTC
I finally found the time to do a little experiment:
I downloaded the data dumps from eve-central.com and compared it with the data provided by CCP:

http://www.eve-notifications.com/marketdata.html

The graphs show the mineral prices from 2010-05-01 to 2011-04-31 in The Forge.
(you should probably click some lines away to see something useful Big smile)

I use the data from eve-central to determine my next production items. I use prices from sell orders to "buy" my components and use also prices from sell orders to "sell" my product. When there is enough profit to be made, I usually verify with ingame data (actual prices, movement, ...).
The prices that I determine are rolling averages, calculated every two hours.What I normally do, but haven't done with the historical data from eve-central, is to scrap it of 'unnatural' values (the spikes).


Now CCP has provided us with a data export of actual transactions. The market data dump contains aggregated info of all market items bought and sold. So a guy, who dumps a hundred million Tritanium to a buy order can significantly ruin the 'baseprice' for my further usages.

I'd be very happy, if CCP could provide two lines for each item: one for bought items, one for sold items. If not, I can/will correlate the sell orders from eve-central with the transactionCount and totalQuantity provided by CCP.