These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
12Next page
 

Market implications of the upcoming TEST alliance fail cascade

First post
Author
Previous Topic Next Topic
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#1 - 2013-07-26 05:34:37 UTC
So it looks like TEST are going to be sent packing in the next month or so. What does MD think this will do to the game economy?

I'm thinking rising prices (as Goonswarm go back to nullsec carebearing, generating ISK, and former TEST members take up highsec carebear lives), lower prices for deadspace modules, and more interest in tech 2 hulls that aren't fielded much in PVP.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#2 - 2013-07-26 12:34:05 UTC
R64s will crash - briefly - after a TEST director steals them all and firesales them to the market.

Then R64s will spike because we'll own every single one of them in fountain and evil goon nullsec cartel something something.




Or something like that.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#3 - 2013-07-26 12:48:42 UTC
realistically speaking, the whole market will probably deflate by a few % and only recover mid autumn or so. some items will be affected more than others but in general, now is the time to cash out unless you want to stay sitting on your stocks till october.

also, just out of curiosity, how much ice products did goons dump to finance this war (if any)?

I should buy an Ishtar.
RAW23
#4 - 2013-07-26 13:06:51 UTC
Daniel Plain wrote:
realistically speaking, the whole market will probably deflate by a few % and only recover mid autumn or so.


What makes you think that? For all the sound and fury, losses in this war haven't been particularly high (very limited cap ship losses and no supercap losses (on the field, at least)). It is not, in any case, an isolated event. All the participants were losing ships before this war started and will continue losing them after the war finishes. I doubt that the 'added value' of this war over the norm amounts to anything close to a few % of the global economy.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#5 - 2013-07-26 13:37:37 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
Daniel Plain wrote:
realistically speaking, the whole market will probably deflate by a few % and only recover mid autumn or so.


What makes you think that? For all the sound and fury, losses in this war haven't been particularly high (very limited cap ship losses and no supercap losses (on the field, at least)). It is not, in any case, an isolated event. All the participants were losing ships before this war started and will continue losing them after the war finishes. I doubt that the 'added value' of this war over the norm amounts to anything close to a few % of the global economy.

my guess is based on the assumption that at least some of the participants will go inactive and enjoy what's left of the summer, thus triggering a belated summer slump.

I should buy an Ishtar.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#6 - 2013-07-26 14:32:51 UTC
Realposting: Several thousand battleships have died over the course of the war so far (on all sides) with no lasting effect on the markets and minerals have continued to drop in price despite what would presumably be increased demand. Outside of certain key meta modules and perhaps certain T2 items, you probably won't see very much in the way of a "slump" once the war does end.

Which, I should point out, hasn't actually happened quite yet.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
mechtech
Ice Liberation Army
#7 - 2013-07-26 14:49:59 UTC  |  Edited by: mechtech
mynnna wrote:

Then R64s will spike because we'll own every single one of them in fountain and evil goon nullsec cartel something something.

Or something like that.


I'll take Moons for 16. I'd like to buy a C please!
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#8 - 2013-07-26 14:57:48 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Realposting: Several thousand battleships have died over the course of the war so far (on all sides) with no lasting effect on the markets and minerals have continued to drop in price despite what would presumably be increased demand. Outside of certain key meta modules and perhaps certain T2 items, you probably won't see very much in the way of a "slump" once the war does end.

Which, I should point out, hasn't actually happened quite yet.

funny you mention battleships explicitly, as they are one of the few items that have been preproduced en masse before odyssey. frankly, with the changes to 0.0 rocks it's a miracle that minerals are still as high as they currently are. maybe i'm wrong but my internal gevlon tells me trit will hit 4.50 before it starts rising again.

I should buy an Ishtar.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#9 - 2013-07-26 15:19:17 UTC
Daniel Plain wrote:
mynnna wrote:
Realposting: Several thousand battleships have died over the course of the war so far (on all sides) with no lasting effect on the markets and minerals have continued to drop in price despite what would presumably be increased demand. Outside of certain key meta modules and perhaps certain T2 items, you probably won't see very much in the way of a "slump" once the war does end.

Which, I should point out, hasn't actually happened quite yet.

funny you mention battleships explicitly, as they are one of the few items that have been preproduced en masse before odyssey. frankly, with the changes to 0.0 rocks it's a miracle that minerals are still as high as they currently are. maybe i'm wrong but my internal gevlon tells me trit will hit 4.50 before it starts rising again.


You shouldn't listen to your internal gevlon, that guy's an idiot.


In any case, not all battleships were used in the war, and many of them remain underpriced. Since they're underpriced, no one was building them before the war and no one will after for quite some time - the war ending would have no effect on them. That includes the Dominix, which saw a notable price rise but has not broken into being profitable to build.

Exceptions include the Megathron, Rokh and perhaps Apocalypse, which is only a fraction of usage. Mineral prices will likely continue to drop, yes, but also probably won't be accelerated significantly, either.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
RAW23
#10 - 2013-07-26 15:21:09 UTC  |  Edited by: RAW23
Daniel Plain wrote:
maybe i'm wrong but my internal gevlon tells me


Can I stop you right there and recommend euthanatising that unfortunate part of your psyche. It will hurt at first but you'll feel much better afterwards. The procedure is not very invasive and once your Gevlon has been burnt out of the brain-stem you may find a greater ease in relating to other human beings. As a side benefit, the ability to string words together into coherent sentences will flourish.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Havoc Zealot
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#11 - 2013-07-26 15:42:55 UTC
Confirming my Goblins have Gevlons.
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#12 - 2013-07-27 01:14:00 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
As a side benefit, the ability to string words together into coherent sentences will flourish.

i never deemed myself lacking in this regard at least. i guess the goblin is not that strong in this one after all...

I should buy an Ishtar.
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#13 - 2013-07-27 01:21:34 UTC
mynnna wrote:

In any case, not all battleships were used in the war, and many of them remain underpriced. Since they're underpriced, no one was building them before the war and no one will after for quite some time - the war ending would have no effect on them. That includes the Dominix, which saw a notable price rise but has not broken into being profitable to build.

this is exactly my point. even though the mineral sink of battleship production is currently virtually nonexistent, somehow mineral prices keep floating relatively close to pre odyssey values and some items such as faction ammo are significantly more expensive. i do not see any better explanation than the war, which in turn means that once the war is over, prices have to drop (unless something else happens). maybe i'm just uninformed. What?

I should buy an Ishtar.
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#14 - 2013-07-29 18:07:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Bugsy VanHalen
There was little to no market fallout when solar fell. I don't see much happening when test goes into hidding. Time will tell if they can reform and make a comback, or throw in the towel and we will see a new or previously underwhelming alliance grow quickly to fill the gap.

The biggest impact I see coming when the various wars die off, is we will again have a large number of GOONS and other nul sec tyrants becoming bored and looking for new ways to entertain themselves. I have no idea what they are cooking up, but I can't wait to see it.

I am just glad to see the turmoil in null sec, rather than the big blue donut that we had in the past. Sure things will die down for a while before the next big shift, but With the majority of null sec dwellers being PVPers, these players want to fight, that is why they are here, the big blue circle jerk is against their nature.

Conflict drives loss, loss drives demand, and demand drives the economy. I do not see massive upheaval in the EVE economy regardless of whether TEST survives or caves. But I do believe these wars are highly beneficial to the EVE economy to balance the inflation we saw while most of null sec was blue. I would like to see tritanium back down to the 3.3 isk/unit range, but I just do not see such a significant impact happening, even with the wide spread wars, and null sec ore rebalancing. The only thing I can say for sure is the destroyed assets certainly do not hurt the game economy..
Promiscuous Female
GBS Logistics and Fives Support
#15 - 2013-07-29 18:30:00 UTC
i dunno about you guys

but if you are holding onto shadow serp/core deadspace ****

you probably wanna frog the f out

because goons are like a swarm of locusts wrt exploration and anoms
Promiscuous Female
GBS Logistics and Fives Support
#16 - 2013-07-29 18:33:44 UTC
i'm not even kidding

for a while I used to buy sites from people in venal because deklein was picked clean

the goon menace is coming, serpentis rats, prepare your bung holes
SencneS
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2013-07-29 20:26:31 UTC  |  Edited by: SencneS
^ ^ ^ Just look at the Market history for Officer and Faction mods when Goon's move in to a new area.

The spike in available products goes up, which means... the other area the main goon fleets left will see a drop in supply.

The odd thing about Moon Goo is.... it doesn't matter which alliance holds the leash, supply is still pretty finite.. And we all know, Alliances like ISK in the "Here and Now" rather than stockpiling and Choking the Supply. It does no alliance any good to totally choke supply because it limits their fresh ISK flow into their accounts.

There is a fine line between, holding out for a higher price and selling steady at a normalized price.

I think speculation on Goon's theoretical choking of supply will have more affect than the actual supply.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#18 - 2013-07-30 00:10:27 UTC
SencneS wrote:
^ ^ ^ Just look at the Market history for Officer and Faction mods when Goon's move in to a new area.

The spike in available products goes up, which means... the other area the main goon fleets left will see a drop in supply.


You think that Goons and the CFC won't manage to fully saturate both Fountain and the North when it comes to ratting and plexing.


Isn't that cute.

SencneS wrote:
The odd thing about Moon Goo is.... it doesn't matter which alliance holds the leash, supply is still pretty finite.. And we all know, Alliances like ISK in the "Here and Now" rather than stockpiling and Choking the Supply. It does no alliance any good to totally choke supply because it limits their fresh ISK flow into their accounts.

There is a fine line between, holding out for a higher price and selling steady at a normalized price.

I think speculation on Goon's theoretical choking of supply will have more affect than the actual supply.


This is especially true seeing as Alchemy is A Thing. It's a system designed to make up for the choke in supply, and it does it exceptionally well.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Aeris Adesir
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#19 - 2013-08-27 08:00:27 UTC
mynnna wrote:

You shouldn't listen to your internal gevlon, that guy's an idiot.


I've read all the hate about this guy, but can someone explain exactly why he is so disliked?
Caitlyn Tufy
Perkone
Caldari State
#20 - 2013-08-27 09:15:57 UTC
Aeris Adesir wrote:
mynnna wrote:

You shouldn't listen to your internal gevlon, that guy's an idiot.


I've read all the hate about this guy, but can someone explain exactly why he is so disliked?


Because he is a mentally challenged individual with delusions of grandeur, whose "advice" is usually best adhered to in the exact opposite way of whatever is written.

I hope this was politically correct enough not to be against terms of service :p
12Next page