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Pre-Odyssey investment speculations on R64 and why you might lose billions

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Samroski
Middle-Earth
#21 - 2013-06-01 20:21:25 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:
... sits on the boatdock sipping Sangria and looks out at the crystalline skies... Blink


Not sure why, but this reminds me of Sand and Foam by Donovan.

On topic: ummmm my ignorance about the current discussion is astounding.

Any colour you like.
Rama Sirius
Damorg Freedom Corp
Shattered Freeholds
#22 - 2013-06-14 08:33:03 UTC
all r64's are dropping, what a surprise Roll
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#23 - 2013-06-14 12:20:06 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
Rama Sirius wrote:
all r64's are dropping, what a surprise Roll

It's not. The path of every speculative item ever is a pre-patch swell, then a crash as people cash out on patch day because they want money now/they panic when it doesn't instantly spike/whatever, before a renewed rise (and then another crash as people cash out at new highs) and so on.


It doesn't help that there are two coalitions currently at war that each hold a lot of R64s and are hungry for money, too. Blink

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#24 - 2013-06-14 15:22:53 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Rama Sirius wrote:
all r64's are dropping, what a surprise Roll

It's not. The path of every speculative item ever is a pre-patch swell, then a crash as people cash out on patch day because they want money now/they panic when it doesn't instantly spike/whatever, before a renewed rise (and then another crash as people cash out at new highs) and so on.


It doesn't help that there are two coalitions currently at war that each hold a lot of R64s and are hungry for money, too. Blink

this. if you are not convinced, check out fuel blocks or battleships.

I should buy an Ishtar.
Erotica 1
Krypteia Operations
#25 - 2013-06-15 00:56:03 UTC

The simple solution would be to find a single alliance that could control all of the r64 moons. A cartel could work as well. I wonder where we could find such an organization.

See Bio for isk doubling rules. If you didn't read bio, chances are you funded those who did.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#26 - 2013-06-15 01:02:30 UTC
Erotica 1 wrote:

The simple solution would be to find a single alliance that could control all of the r64 moons. A cartel could work as well. I wonder where we could find such an organization.


Eve is littered with the defunct shells of alliances and corporations that thought they could control it all.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Jori McKie
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#27 - 2013-06-15 15:27:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Jori McKie
mynnna wrote:

I estimate (by essentially looking at average sales of T2 in Jita over the course of a month) that around 85 million units of Microprocessors are consumed per month. Thus, we lose 8.5 million units of Neodymium consumption, but gain about 28.33 million units of R64 consumption, split (rather unevenly, I might add) across the four of them. I'll single out Neodymium specifically and note that it's actually a small net loss here; the increase from the Matar racial composites is outweighed by the decrease from the loss of the Nanotransistors, by about two million units.

Capacitor Units see around 25.5 million units consumed a month. This is just a straight increase, about 8.3 million units of R64s worth.

And finally, reactor units. They're a low usage item, only perhaps 2.3 million per month. We lose .375 units in each, but gain a full unit with the switch to Fermionics, for a net gain of .625 per month. In the end, it comes to an additional ~1.5m units per month.

OH YEAH, and there's also 352k capital micros (net gain of +2.33 R64s each), 352k Cap units (net gain of +3.33 R64s each) and +259k Reactor Units (net gain of +6.25 R64s each), so another 3.6 million units there.


So, our net gain in R64 consumption is about 33.241 million units per month. A moon only produces 72000 units per month, on the other hand, which comes out to a total of 16.344 million units. Given that my estimate of increased consumption is a little over twice as large as the amount of moon goo the new moons will add, I think it's safe to say that you're wrong.


Jita numbers are obvious but as far as i know those numbers are buys and sales, so you have to estimate how much percentage is actually used and how much is "just" traded.


Pre Tech, R64 stuff wasn't used evenly, after Odyssey i get that it is still not evenly but more or less. That raises the question, how much R64 stuff overall is mined and in comparison how much is used including the "net gain in R64 consumption is about 33.241 million units per month".

What i'm saying is you can't compare the net gain only to the 227 new R64 moons, you have to compare the overall mined stuff of all R64 moons to an estimated consumption (Jita numbers) + net gain via new reaction settings.

What you need is the actual number of all R64 moons x 72000/month and compare that to any estimation of consumption. That will get you a ballpark number, if you want it more specific you have to break it down to the specific R64 moon and its product vs the consumption. And here we are, i would love to see a break down of the existing R64 moons vs the estimated consumption of their product.

@mynnna or anyone with some actual numbers, don't need exact numbers just ballparks would be very nice.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar
Jacabon Mere
Capital Storm.
#28 - 2013-06-15 23:23:59 UTC
From all the math done, there is clearly an overwhelming undersupply of r64's.

And someone just put an accidental buy order for photonic metamaterials up at 133500/unit and netted me a cool 6.3 bil in extra cash.

Capital Storm is recruiting Aussies for Lowsec pvp and money making. Join "Capital Storm Pub" channel ingame. www.capitalstorm.net
Saeka Tyr
Sanctuary of Shadows
#29 - 2013-06-26 09:26:48 UTC
Jacabon Mere wrote:
From all the math done, there is clearly an overwhelming undersupply of r64's.

And someone just put an accidental buy order for photonic metamaterials up at 133500/unit and netted me a cool 6.3 bil in extra cash.


Who says it was an accident? Stupid margin scammer is stupid.
sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#30 - 2013-06-26 15:27:00 UTC
Hafnium has been looking interesting even though its not an r64. In particular the volume has been around a million units higher per day since the patch. Possibly people dumping stock or maybe a new higher demand for that mineral? Its been 1.5 million units a day on the way down, but also the same volume now that its on its way up.
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