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Worried about plex
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Claire Voyant
#41 - 2011-11-07 14:59:46 UTC
Cyniac wrote:
I'm still not sure what CCP will do about plex prices but yes they try to meddle. Problem is the more they meddle the less effective their meddling becomes. Will they come up with a more effective meddling technique if plex prices displease them greatly? I'm sure we'll find out.

For that reason alone Plex is unique amongst EVE investments - CCP has reserved the right to intervene in that market and no one knows for sure how far they are willing to go in their interventions.

CCP is the sole supplier of PLEX. If you bought up a bunch of iPhones in the hopes of selling them at inflated prices and Apple came along and lowered their price, increased the supply, released an improved model, or made some other announcement that crashed the price would you say Apple was "meddling" in the iPhone market?

Instead of using a weasel word like "meddle" please try to more specific. For example, do you mean they trade PLEX on the market? They did say that they might at some point intervene in the PLEX market to stabilize prices, which was taken to mean to buy and sell PLEX. But they also said they would announce those moves after the fact in a subsequent QEN. Now conspiracy theorists will probably take the fact that there has been no QEN published since that announcement as proof positive that they are trading PLEX. While I do find the laziness and/or incompetence of the Eve economic team unfortunate, they have been that way for a long time and continued laziness and/or incompetence does not make a strong case for a conspiracy theory. A more likely theory might be that they don't want to (or haven't been allowed to) release any global data that would feed the "Eve is dying" storyline.

Yet it is clear to me that there hasn't been a market intervention, and my proof is that PLEX prices haven't fallen below 360M (Jita median daily price) since that announcement. Now some conspiracy theorists (call them the up-side crowd) feel that this is proof that CCP has been intervening all along, supporting prices at 360 and above, but that confuses intervention with price control. An intervention is to lessen the impact of a crash, not prevent a crash. If there's been no crash, there can be no intervention.

Of course the real tin-foil hat people are the down-siders. They say CCP makes more money from people using PLEX ($17.50) than regular subscriptions ($11-15) so CCP wants to keep PLEX prices affordable for us cheapskates that don't want to pay any real money to play their game. So far so good, but then they say CCP is generating PLEX from thin air to sell to us for isk, totally ignoring the fact that PLEX generated in this way create no revenue ($0.00 for those keeping score) and all they get is isk in return which is fine but I don't think they can pay their investors, creditors, employees, and suppliers in isk.

If you want to say that CCP is either hiding subscriber numbers or inflating those hidden subscriber numbers, then knock yourself out. What bugs me are the morons that lose money in one of the most predictable markets in Eve and blame their failure on CCP. If you can't figure out when to buy PLEX and when to sell it, you really need to get the hell out of Jita and stop whining in MD.
Lexmana
#42 - 2011-11-07 15:08:27 UTC
Avensys wrote:
Hans Jagerblitzen wrote:
Because I don't feel like typing it all over again, I'll just say that you can click here to read why the idea that CCP is meddling with isk prices is complete bullshit.

your post is complete bullshit.

(a) EyjoG openly told us that he would meddle if necessary.
(b) we had a series of log-in screen adverts and special offers that just happened to coincide with high PLEX prices.

Both (a) and (b) are pretty strong examples of meddling.


Moar tinfoil please!

If CCP didn't take this opportunity to try market PLEX to real $$ buyers of GTC they would be stupid. It is not "meddling". It is just common sense.
Cyniac
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#43 - 2011-11-07 15:25:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Cyniac
Claire Voyant wrote:
Instead of using a weasel word like "meddle" please try to more specific.


My intent was not to be weasily though I agree my choice of terms was unfortunate, I inherited that from Hans, I should know better.

It would perhaps be more appropriate to say CCP can (and has) influence(d) the PLEX market.

In the case of PLEX, CCP has the option of controlling the both the availability (supply side influence) and the use (demand side influence). I believe that any thing which affects the supply or affects the demand of a specific item (in this case PLEX) will influence that market.

Things that CCP has done so far:

Supply side influence:

Mainly limited to PLEX promotions so far, i.e. discounts for PLEX 12 for 13 deal that kind of thing. Nominally this increases the supply of PLEX.

The other noteworthy promotion here was the buddy programme promotion from a while back where you would get a PLEX for every buddy who actually subscribed.

Demand side influence:

Opening up new uses for PLEX for example:

The entire AUR system,

New account for 3 PLEX promotion

PLEX donations for charitable causes

etc.


All of these events influence the PLEX market. How much of an impact each of these individual actions has had is open for discussion (and may be impossible to ascertain as they are often running simultaneously) but when it comes to PLEX - CCP has the power to influence the market.

What makes PLEX special is the stated intent from Dr. Eyjólfur that CCP is willing to intervene in the PLEX market to stabilize prices. As I mentioned the actual ways in which they intervene, the trigger points at which they will intervene and the effectiveness of those intervention are still to a large extent unknown. This unknown is simply an additional risk within the PLEX market which does not apply to other items in EVE.

As an aside, I consider the initial announcement that CCP would intervene in PLEX markets as an intervention in itself, because markets are driven as much by speculation, hopes and fears as they are by supply and demand at times.

And regarding the QEN - I concurr with you that they do not want to at this point release data which points to EVE losing steam (dying is a bit of an overstatement at this point). I'm sure that when (if?) things look up again we'll see some nice graphs once more.
Claire Voyant
#44 - 2011-11-07 16:41:56 UTC
Cyniac wrote:
All of these events influence the PLEX market. How much of an impact each of these individual actions has had is open for discussion (and may be impossible to ascertain as they are often running simultaneously) but when it comes to PLEX - CCP has the power to influence the market.

What makes PLEX special is the stated intent from Dr. Eyjólfur that CCP is willing to intervene in the PLEX market to stabilize prices. As I mentioned the actual ways in which they intervene, the trigger points at which they will intervene and the effectiveness of those intervention are still to a large extent unknown. This unknown is simply an additional risk within the PLEX market which does not apply to other items in EVE.

Thank you for clarifying what you meant. Let me make a few observations and some clarifications of my own.

All of the supply side actions you mentioned are intended to increase PLEX supply and CCP revenue.
All of the demand side actions are intended to increase PLEX demand and (with the possible exception of the PLEX for Good drives) ultimately increase CCP revenue.

And there is no question that these actions can be timed to conditions in the PLEX market. They tend to run supply side actions when supply is lower than demand, and to a lesser extent demand side actions when demand is lower than supply (and again with the possible exception that CCP does not control the timing of natural disasters.)

But these actions all fall under the purview of what we may for a lack of a better term call the "CCP Marketing Department" not the "Eve Central Bank" if only for the reason that the central bank was created less than a year ago and the marketing department and their promotions have been around for a lot longer. Certainly Dr. E may be consulted before PLEX promotions, but it is clear that his promise to announce after the fact all central bank interventions was not going to include every single PLEX related promotion or login screen promo.

I think there can be no doubt that his famous announcement had nothing to do with PLEX promotions and was intended to signal something entirely different. There was of course a lot more discussion at the time, but it seems pretty clear that Dr. E was responding to the post -Incursion PLEX crash caused by the huge influx of PLEX from new and returning players (and idiots who lost all those expensive ships in those first few days) combined with the unexpected isk sink from people using their freed up learning skill points to train capital ship skill books. Who can remember those dark days a mere nine months ago when it looked like the PLEX market would never recover?
(For some reason, #26 is one of my favorite posts in that thread. Note: Direct linking to those bon mots doesn't work any more.Cry)

Dr. E's announcement was intended to let the PLEX market know that he was watching out for them. You could always know that in your darkest days, there was a white knight waiting on the wings shining his armor for the right moment to step in and save the day. He of course hoped that the shininess of his armor would be all it took to inspire confidence and faith in the PLEX market and he could keep his heart pure as a good libertarian economist. The idea that he is now a puppet master pulling the strings of the PLEX market is pure silliness.
Katareena Starfire
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#45 - 2011-11-07 17:02:22 UTC
Does CCP not benefit the most when PLEX prices are high? The higher the PLEX ISK value, the more people are willing to spend $$ to buy PLEX to trade for ISK.

Also they benefit more if PLEXes are used for AUR, donated, blown up, sitting on inactive accounts, etc etc...anything but being renewed for subscription time. Why? Because if they aren't used for time, then someone, somewhere has to pay $$ for that time that could have been otherwise bought with a PLEX.

I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I know that CCP can print ISK. They can't print all of it they want, and all it does is inflate the market a little bit more. However, they can't print $$. The more PLEX they sell, the more $$ they make. The less PLEX that ever make it back into the account subscription form, the more $$ they make. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that CCP buying PLEX off the market in exchange for ISK is a win/win for them.

In the end, no matter how you look at it, it is a pay-to-win system. It doesn't get labeled as such very often because disguising it as a service to sell game time keeps buyers and sellers happy.

Kat
Claire Voyant
#46 - 2011-11-07 17:45:37 UTC
Katareena Starfire wrote:
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that CCP buying PLEX off the market in exchange for ISK is a win/win for them.

While that is certainly true, it doesn't prove that they are actually doing it.

It didn't help that Dr. E did his best Greenspan impersonation, but I think it is pretty clear that if and when he intervenes in the market he is not going to simply report it as "We bought 1000 PLEX for 300 Billion isk" because the sh!tstorm would dwarf anything monoclegate created. He's got to say "We bought 1000 PLEX for 300 Billion and sold them for 400 Billion and the resulting profit of 100 Billion was destroyed as an isk sink" if he wants to retain any credibility.

Of course they could always do it on the sly, but why announce it ahead of time? They could have done it anytime since the creation of PLEX and they could have intervened in February without anyone noticing. Of course it doesn't mean they didn't, but it doesn't mean they did either.

As I said at the time, Dr. E's announcement inspired much more of my confidence in CCP's integrity than it raised red flags, but for some unknown reason I seem to be in the minority.
Cyniac
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#47 - 2011-11-07 18:15:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Cyniac
Claire Voyant wrote:
As I said at the time, Dr. E's announcement inspired much more of my confidence in CCP's integrity than it raised red flags, but for some unknown reason I seem to be in the minority.


I'm with you on this. Though I don't follow the PLEX market as closely as some others I'd think that CCP would be concerned about very high inflation in PLEX (not a little inflation - I'm talking about doubling of PLEX prices in a matter of weeks) but would be most concerned by a severe crash in the PLEX market.

CCP must love it when people buy PLEX because on average this results in more revenues than people paying cash for accounts.

Whether players use the PLEX to pay for gametime or AUR or character transfers or whatever is essentially immaterial to CCP.

A big crash in PLEX prices is bad because it would encourage RMT - big no no.

I took Dr. E's statement as a simple we will defend our turf announcement, especially given that if someone is going to benefit from crashing PLEX prices it's RMTs.

(yeah and players that are ISK poor - sorry though guys you are probably pretty low in this pecking order).

So yeah - knight in shiny armour is a good analogy Cool
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#48 - 2011-11-07 23:16:53 UTC
Katareena Starfire wrote:
Does CCP not benefit the most when PLEX prices are high? The higher the PLEX ISK value, the more people are willing to spend $$ to buy PLEX to trade for ISK.


Kat


No ... it might and it might not at any given level and what that level is where they make the maximum plex sales is what would be rational for them to pursue.

Have you played many free to play games with currency and premium perk packages ? thats the easiest way and I really can't explain the games without walls of text but those that have played them will immediatley understand.

example

World of tanks.

They sell tank-gold and their gold can buy tanks, special ammo, ability to mount and remount items, and most importantly a premium level which makes it easier to gain experience to qualify to drive other tanks and to earn more of their second game currency used for repairs by higher fight payouts for premium members.

If they gave more gold for the $ people would have their game needs met (buying the tanks they are qualifited for without grinding, buying premium membership) with less $.

Now, the balance I spoke of is about luring more buyers who would have never paid $ in the first place but just continued to play for free, but parted with money because of the better value.

There would be more people buying 3000 gold for 2$ than for 15$ ... I don't argue with that... but the question is, how many total $ to you get even if more gold is sold, is enough more sold to make up for the lower amount recieved per sale.

People buying plex to sell for isk are buying isk with $ in an approved method . The same dynamics apply. The amount of isk people want isn't tied only to the value you get in $ but very much also focussed on what goals they have in the game and the particular amount of isk needed to attain their goals. Not all goals will go up and up if people had more isk

I know certainly that just because I've got 70 billion in the bank I don't want to lose a faction fit arazu instead of a drake because I don't want to give up that large isk KM . Km value given up is a true factor in the game for many people ... and will influence how much isk people want.

Also, from a Game Designer perspective, they know that if people spending real $ outgun people who are willing to grind a reasonable number of hours a night, at some point they start losing the interest of more and more game players who don't pay extra $ to play. Its easy to tolerate people paying $ to skip some hours of farming or a rare person spending their way to faction lokis but if the split gets too big people who dont' like the idea find another game. Subjective and hard to pin balancing point.. but there is a balancing point from the standpoint of designing and enjoyable game to play.

.
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