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Invention chances of success

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Satara Chaslot
Iron Whales
Goonswarm Federation
#1 - 2013-06-15 10:19:26 UTC
On my industry character I am creating T2 drones and I am wondering whether something has changed recently or whether I have simply been unlucky for quite a long time. I am focussing here on max run BPCs and inventing. Using an invention calc for my industrial character i find that I have 48% success rate. Recording the last 56 invention jobs I have done I have found my success rate to be 28%.

I don't tend to read through patch notes but is this behaviour 'normal'?

Thanks
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2013-06-15 10:30:26 UTC
Random is random.

Last week my CEO had 4/5 Kronos inventions succeed and I had 0/15 ammo succeed on the same day. It happens. 56 is an incredibly small sample size and as such little can be concluded from it. Over a large sample (which 56 is not), the successes will even out at the 48% success rate
Satara Chaslot
Iron Whales
Goonswarm Federation
#3 - 2013-06-15 11:12:37 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Random is random.

Last week my CEO had 4/5 Kronos inventions succeed and I had 0/15 ammo succeed on the same day. It happens. 56 is an incredibly small sample size and as such little can be concluded from it. Over a large sample (which 56 is not), the successes will even out at the 48% success rate


Thanks for the feedback Elena - nice to know some good days are to come :D
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2013-06-15 11:30:38 UTC
Also bear in mind cognitive bias, you remember what's abnormal more than what's normal. So you'll remember the 0/5 invention runs, the 5/5, but not the multiple 3/5 ones.
Vanchelon
State War Academy
Caldari State
#5 - 2013-06-15 15:11:08 UTC
Had 0/10 Rhea inventions once, that was fun... 1.2b down the drain at the time.
After that I started keeping track and noticed that after about 100 JF inventions, I was 0.2% over the expected ratio.

So ye, it's a tired refrain, but random is random ;)
Satara Chaslot
Iron Whales
Goonswarm Federation
#6 - 2013-06-15 16:31:23 UTC
Thanks for the feedback guys, it's a scary thing after pouring so much isk into a venture wondering whether you got the sums wrong as no one wants to be busy fool.

0/10 Rhea... ouch!

Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#7 - 2013-06-15 17:04:37 UTC
Iv only seen very modest luck and its very rare, more often then not I get a zero out of 10
Haulie Berry
#8 - 2013-06-15 20:58:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Kara Books wrote:
Iv only seen very modest luck and its very rare, more often then not I get a zero out of 10


Utter bull **** for any statistically significant number of attempts.

For funsies, my counts for as far back as IPH's invention success monitor goes (which isn't that far, assuming that's a limitation of the API):

Modules: 339/705 (48.1%)
Drones: 200/365 (54.7%)
Frigates: 29/75 (38.66%)
UKBigWolf
#9 - 2013-06-16 11:14:11 UTC
It's usual human nature to pay more attention to failure than to success

So you'll normally remember your failures alot easier
Satara Chaslot
Iron Whales
Goonswarm Federation
#10 - 2013-06-17 14:59:41 UTC
thanks for the input guys, since writing the initial question down i am getting great success rates so i'm very happy

Kara getting 0/10 most of the time I am surprised about.
Samillian
Angry Mustellid
#11 - 2013-06-17 15:04:39 UTC
Some runs I do well, some I do badly thats the way of it. Over the last year its averaged out at about a 50% success rate for each of my product lines and I'm not seeing any significant change over the last few months.

NBSI shall be the whole of the Law
Ginger Barbarella
#12 - 2013-06-17 16:37:11 UTC
Yeah, the tired old refrain "random is random". Get your skills up as high as you can, and use high meta items as a base for the invention if you can. My main toon that does projectile, missile, and hybrid inventions have all 5's in the associated Invention skills, and I use the meta items from my missioning to help boost the invention chance (see http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/invention_chance.php for calculator).

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Haulie Berry
#13 - 2013-06-17 18:41:05 UTC
Satara Chaslot wrote:
thanks for the input guys, since writing the initial question down i am getting great success rates so i'm very happy

Kara getting 0/10 most of the time I am surprised about.


Kara is perpetually full of ****.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#14 - 2013-06-18 02:00:07 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Your results are, in fact, uncommon.

0.2% Chance of getting 16 or fewer successes on 56 runs if the probability of success is, in fact, .48.

So, odds are, it'll happen 2 times for every 1000 runs of 56 that are done. Of course, that's assuming your choice of "the last 56 runs" was made at random.

I would check your math on the 48% success probability. If it's correct, chalk it up to uncommon (but nowhere near unheard of) bad luck.

If you want to quantify your luck, record the next 100 runs you do of the same calculated probability and see what you get. Decide which hundred to record before you run them, to avoid selection bias.


Calculated with the help of:
http://www.vassarstats.net/textbook/ch5apx.html

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon