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Lets discuss Mynnna's predictions on Minerals, Ice and Moongoo

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Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#41 - 2013-06-13 05:15:32 UTC
I think its fair to say this topic is getting tilted a bit..

The new changes strain the available ICE. This really cant be disputed, and the numbers have been crunched.

Hands on intel gathered from the belts is very low, so the pace needed is not getting picked up..

Yes stockpiles have been hoarded by quite a lot of speculators.


The point is this is not like Procurers or Battleships. The drain on ICE products is huge and not something where current stock will last for global years of consumption.

When the "warehouse" speculative stock runs dry the prices will go very high, the only reason it has not is because noone really knows how much is on stock, and where price will eventually land.

From Rhivres and Mynnnas research I would estimate even above what have been predicted. Closer to the scale of 400-500% pre Odyssey, then the 200-300% currently expected. The hoarded stock is slowing down the new price level.
sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#42 - 2013-06-13 14:07:58 UTC
mynnna wrote:
sackofwine wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I read in the odyssey release notes that high sec ice anomilies only contain racial ice? If that is true, then the only source of LO would be low/null sec?


Racial ice still contains trace amounts of LO and if you poke around make some estimates from old diagoras numbers you get something absurd like that those trace amounts nonetheless supplied ~2/3 of the game's LO, simply by virtue of so damn much of it being mined.

Obviously, highsec isn't supplying 2/3 of the game's LO anymore.


Thx for the reply. Yea that's the ice product I am expecting to surprise us all and go crazy high as some will have to be imported from null from now on.
Manny Moons
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#43 - 2013-06-13 14:37:29 UTC
The choice to mine ice, pre-Odyssey, was not generally based on the ISK/hr of the activity. It was based on the lack of active effort required. Odyssey has changed the characteristics of ice-mining, increasing the ISK/hr (of actual mining time), but also the active effort required. It is way too early to accurately measure the effects, because it will likely take many months for all the variables to stabilize. There is one known fact that is difficult to dispute: the amount of ice mined in highsec cannot exceed the amount of ice that exists in highsec. We can argue about how closely the amount mined will be to that theoretical maximum, or about how demand for ice products will fall, or about how much more ice mining will occur in low and null sec. But what we know is enough to convince me that higher ice prices are inevitable.
Dave stark
#44 - 2013-06-13 15:55:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Dave Stark
Manny Moons wrote:
but also the active effort required.


nope. still as afkable as before. except now it's harder to find an ice asteroid to go afk next to. it's still the least interactive activity in the game that you can't do from a station.
Manny Moons
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#45 - 2013-06-13 17:44:57 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
Manny Moons wrote:
but also the active effort required.


nope. still as afkable as before. except now it's harder to find an ice asteroid to go afk next to. it's still the least interactive activity in the game that you can't do from a station.

I was including the bother of chasing down the anomalies.
Marsan
#46 - 2013-06-13 19:31:14 UTC
Which is why I suspect the hard core ice miners will simply place an alt or 2 in a central location. Place jump clones and mining ships in other central locations. They will move to where the ice is as long as it can be done quickly via gates or jump clones. In the end they will likely make more isk. The average miner will only find Ice in a couple out of the way systems on any regular basis, and generally be mining the Veld....

Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a grumpy small portion of the community.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#47 - 2013-06-14 15:45:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Rhivre
So, I did a little trip round highsec.

During US, and EU prime time.

[Usual dislaimers about this being a snapshot of a moment in time]

Ice Mining Snapshot


EDIT: There were lots and lots of miners out and about in the systems with anoms, but, they were mostly hanging out in the ore belts

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#48 - 2013-06-14 16:18:06 UTC
With all the disclaimers that it's a single data point and extrapolating from a single data point is foolish, I'm going to extrapolate from a single data point.


Rhivre's data indicates an average of ten miners per active belt. Assuming that that's fairly indicative of prime time weekday mining, then we're seeing an average clear time of about two hours at fastest, which means that on average there's no fifth spawn, which means that we're seeing less than the 80% of maximum highsec ice coming from highsec.

Be interesting to see what the numbers looks like throughout the day as well as during the weekend over a period of a couple of weeks. With enough trial accounts and too much time on ones hands, this could be done...

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#49 - 2013-06-14 17:25:27 UTC
Hmm, I would agree with the overall assessment, however, the 48m clear time required for five spawns is based on Lvl V macks boosted by an orca.

While the orcas ofc do not need to be on grid, not all systems have an orca, and not all ships are macks.

I have screenshots for each system (And no, you cant have them :p ) so I will update the makeup of ships as well, and stick that on the bottom of the sheet

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#50 - 2013-06-14 18:38:53 UTC
Rhivre wrote:


While the orcas ofc do not need to be on grid, not all systems have an orca, and not all ships are macks.

All of these things (except "not all ships are macks" anyway, provided they're hulks instead) only further diminish the estimate. So does the fact that 10/belt is a primetime number.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#51 - 2013-06-14 19:08:21 UTC
Sheet is updated with breakdown of the ships in the active anoms at the time of the snapshot

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Adunh Slavy
#52 - 2013-06-14 21:14:49 UTC
Ice in null inelastic, in high sec, more elastic.

Discuss

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Erotica 1
Krypteia Operations
#53 - 2013-06-15 00:39:57 UTC

I personally found the article on www.themittani.com very well written, as always. I find it deplorable that people would accuse a CSM representative of manipulating the markets.

See Bio for isk doubling rules. If you didn't read bio, chances are you funded those who did.
Grozen
Mateber Mining and Manufacturing Company
C U L T
#54 - 2013-06-15 11:41:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Grozen
10 people mining ice anoms on average?Bs.As someone who is mining ice i refuse to believe otherwise until I'm given ingame screenshots of 40 systems then I'd buy it.In just one of the systems I visit the average count of miners is 20 without me bringing myself in the picture and that is on a good day.Studies based on just one time zone means nothing.Yesterday the ice anom i was in was cleared in 10minutes after spawn.Lol
It seems that whenever people leave ice mining for ores new people(or bots) replace them.Also Jita sales volume is still the same as it was before patch, which means I will say it again there's absolutely no shortage atm.Look the most popular fuel blocks crashing hard.These 170k p/u white glaze buy orders are also very fishy.Because other system prices are usually up to date with jitas orders but atm you will rarely find the same orders outside of jita.

knowledge is power.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#55 - 2013-06-15 14:13:16 UTC
You would like screenshots?

How many would you like?

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#56 - 2013-06-15 16:35:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Regarding my own "data point": first of all is one of those "zero" miners listed systems, which leads me to think they were not visited (yet).
The average in local through the day is 28, it goes either to 37 / 45 / 55 when a spawn comes up.

37 is the last spawn before downtime, I noticed that said spawn does NOT despawn over DT (you can just relog after DT and the ships end in the "new" spawn) and initial observation leads me to think it has some refilling (but not to full) during DT so the first spawn after DT is smaller than the norm (*).

45 is 1st or 2nd respawn, 55+ is subsequent spawns. It peaked at 75 during the first days, then a lot of miners gave up as the belt was being eaten very fast. With the 2 multiboxers, each roid would last 2-3 cycles tops.

Most used ships by casuals: retrievers and Macks. Most used by Orca 4-6 accounters: Macks and Hulks. Most used by multiboxers: Orca + Providence + retrievers.




(*) Edit for Mynna: if this will be confirmed, then not only we don't get enough spawns mined for the 80% but having a "reused" post DT spawn means even less mined ice supply than initially supposed.

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Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#57 - 2013-06-15 16:53:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Rhivre
VV. They are visited.

0 = Anom not there.

Hence "Anom depleted"

As the data says at the bottom of the sheet "Anoms not visited" = 8


What the snapshot shows is "How many anoms are empty at this time" and "Of the remaining anoms, how many are being mined effectively enough to ensure 5 respawns a day"


Without having 94 characters (which I do not have) I cannot give 24/7 data.

However, when I am back from field work, I will do a weekend snapshot, to give both a weekday primetime, and a weekend shot.

(and no, you dont want to know how many hours it takes)

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Umar Umarhabib
Doomheim
#58 - 2013-06-15 18:00:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Umar Umarhabib
Erotica 1 wrote:

I personally found the article on www.themittani.com very well written, as always. I find it deplorable that people would accuse a CSM representative of manipulating the markets.


There is a chance he could be wrong about Ice, but I don't think he's trying to manipulate the market either =P After all he is a CSM Member, and the Economic Expert of Goonswarm - and his reputation amongst Goonswarm members would go down the crapshoot if he did such a thing (since he posted the article on themittani.com)
Jori McKie
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#59 - 2013-06-15 18:02:27 UTC
btw.
There are some lowsec systems which are soooo in the boondocks it's not funny. There is no traffic at all and i just run through them because i forget to set my alt's autopilot back to highsec only. Just check out the Khanid, Kador and Genesis lowsec, there is mostly empty space.

e.g. this system hast 2 ice belts
http://evemaps.dotlan.net/system/Assez/celestials
and
http://evemaps.dotlan.net/map/Genesis/Assez#jumps24

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#60 - 2013-06-15 18:10:02 UTC
Yeah, I noticed a lot of empty lowsec systems on my travels, with not only plenty of ice, but plenty of combat sites.

Fluffy Bunny Pic!