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Lets discuss Mynnna's predictions on Minerals, Ice and Moongoo

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Dave Stark
#21 - 2013-06-11 16:00:32 UTC
Grozen wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
Grozen wrote:
we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that?


i think you've got more chance of me being the first man on mars than we do of seeing ice hit 100k/unit again.


Its a wild assumption I agree but its mainly based on the 20d average and 5d average graph ice prices which are both going down.Until I see 20d move up nothing can persuade me that ice is going anywhere but down.In some regions buy orders have already droped to 143k p/u. and sell are close to jita buy orders.Oh and I just checked the volume of ice entering jita market.Love it when people make assumptions without numbers.You can clearly see that the ice volume matches that of pre-patch, there's absolutely no shortage of ice.


there's no shortage because people like me were mining ice for about a month solid before odyssey and holding on to it because ice has nowhere to go but up.
i know i was.
Grozen
Mateber Mining and Manufacturing Company
C U L T
#22 - 2013-06-11 16:05:04 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
Grozen wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
Grozen wrote:
we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that?


i think you've got more chance of me being the first man on mars than we do of seeing ice hit 100k/unit again.


Its a wild assumption I agree but its mainly based on the 20d average and 5d average graph ice prices which are both going down.Until I see 20d move up nothing can persuade me that ice is going anywhere but down.In some regions buy orders have already droped to 143k p/u. and sell are close to jita buy orders.Oh and I just checked the volume of ice entering jita market.Love it when people make assumptions without numbers.You can clearly see that the ice volume matches that of pre-patch, there's absolutely no shortage of ice.


there's no shortage because people like me were mining ice for about a month solid before odyssey and holding on to it because ice has nowhere to go but up.
i know i was.

I hope you're right I too have stuff at stake here but I guess we'll just have to wait more.Once a full month has passed we can make more accurate predictions right now its too much crystal ball:D

knowledge is power.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#23 - 2013-06-11 16:13:55 UTC
Grozen wrote:
Anyway I'm sure you have enough ice stock to crash the whole jita market atm:D


I have 200b isk (at the original price) worth of isotopes and ozone. So, my personal holding really is a drop in the bucket.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#24 - 2013-06-11 16:20:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Rhivre
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Rhivre wrote:
VV, do not try and tell me there are 40 ships off of 2 multiboxers in every single ice anom in highsec, cos you know I will fly round and check


There's 1 relevant ice and you can easily come check yourself every day at about the 2nd -3rd spawn and you find this:

Screenshot 1
Screenshot 2


What's annoying is that big multiboxers used to "just screw the market price". Now, instead, you either become one of them and basically interdict the ore spawn or you grab 1 ore hold worth of stuff and then it's gone.

Bumping... well James 315 is as active on MD to grab money as inactive in game where he'd be needed.
Smartbombing: the multiboxer retrievers are basically free or even insured, so... /care.

In most games, when people have to "reroll XYZ or lose" it's usually a sign of imbalance and gets nerfed.




VV, handily I did go check myself.

During EU prime time no less

Now, this is a little more helpful maybe.

Rhivre is bad at counting

Now, yes this is just a snapshot.

However, there NEEDS to be 21 macks running at full skills with orca boost to ensure supply of "The only ice that matters" (Although, the numbers traded through Jita say at least one other is also relevant....but more on that later.

You say all caldari Ice is borked. The first system I went to, 3 jumps from Jita had 22 in local, and 11 miners + orcas.

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#25 - 2013-06-11 17:38:42 UTC
vv? lying about the merits of the ice changes?

no sir, you cannot be correct. i do not believe it.
Marsan
#26 - 2013-06-11 20:45:04 UTC
It seems to me that the HS ice fields will in a month or 2 only be mined by 2 groups.
- Multi-region miners using a combination of alts and jump clones with some sort of intelligence channel to update them on where Ice has respawned. With one account you could easily cover 6 systems in a day without counting the nearby systems within a handful of jumps away.
- Opportunistic miners who mine Ice when it's available, and Veld when it's not.

As far as Ice pricing I suspect given the insane numbers of Ice miners in the belts over the last couple months combined with the amount of Ice stock piled by both miners and marketeers. The price of Ice going to be effected less by actual shortages than by market speculation. What is really going to effect the price 6 months from now is if Null Sec calms down. If NS calms down and the "Blue Donut" effect returns to the degree it existed pre=patch then mineral and Ice prices will fall. Ice won't likely return to "normal" levels but it will cost as much as veld does PER HOUR. (I'd calculate it, but I don't care enough and I suspect Veld will drop enough in price.) In such a situation low end mineral prices will drop as NS and WH miners mining High and Mid Ends will be produce a lot more low end when they refine.

PS- Of course this is why the Goons need to start preparing a new Ice, and Mining interdiction. Not High Sec this time, but a war on ice miners, and ore miners in NS. Based on my random roams in NS via wormholes simply showing up in local is enough to end all mining in a system. I can only imagine what would happen if I was with a group willing to bridge a mass of rifters or drakes on a group of miners. Or was running BLOPS roams or drops....

Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a grumpy small portion of the community.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#27 - 2013-06-11 21:23:00 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
vv? lying about the merits of the ice changes?

no sir, you cannot be correct. i do not believe it.


Oh, certainly, a system with no stations not showing fleets that require massive logistics and stations to reprocess? That's CLEARLY the norm!

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#28 - 2013-06-11 21:27:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Rhivre
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
vv? lying about the merits of the ice changes?

no sir, you cannot be correct. i do not believe it.


Oh, certainly, a system with no stations not showing fleets that require massive logistics and stations to reprocess? That's CLEARLY the norm!


Depleted Anoms 21
Active Anoms 7
Active miners 84

Want the screenshots from each system too?

I also have a breakdown of EVERY high sec anom with miners in it and an active anom....but please, continue

Final Edit: I also have the market history table, as do you, showing volumes of the "irrelevant" isotopes, which, seem to be strangely relevant.

"Massive logistics" 3 jumps from jita? Really?

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#29 - 2013-06-11 21:49:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Rhivre wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
vv? lying about the merits of the ice changes?

no sir, you cannot be correct. i do not believe it.


Oh, certainly, a system with no stations not showing fleets that require massive logistics and stations to reprocess? That's CLEARLY the norm!


Depleted Anoms 21
Active Anoms 7
Active miners 84

Want the screenshots from each system too?

I also have a breakdown of EVERY high sec anom with miners in it and an active anom....but please, continue

Final Edit: I also have the market history table, as do you, showing volumes of the "irrelevant" isotopes, which, seem to be strangely relevant.

"Massive logistics" 3 jumps from jita? Really?


Considering he has to move 2k blocks and he has the choice to push *the others* in that station-less system, then why should he bother going there? He can warp to in-system station or move the freighter across systems and the micromanagement interfere with his multiboxing. What shall he choose?

As for the relevance, nitrogen isotopes dictate a lot of research costs and I am more than interested at dealing with those. Not so much for the others.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Adunh Slavy
#30 - 2013-06-11 23:02:23 UTC
PANIC!!

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs
#31 - 2013-06-12 12:03:09 UTC
Well written article, clear and simple.

Moongoo is my thing.
Microprocessors built before patch, panic sells at any price of closing reaction lines in war regions + normal sells to fuel the war effort will keep price in check of basic goo for next short period.

After that, +1 to mynnna.
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#32 - 2013-06-12 13:01:59 UTC
i'm not sure if i agree with mynna's numbers in detail but the overall trends are certainly correct (and somewhat obvious).

I should buy an Ishtar.
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#33 - 2013-06-12 14:46:48 UTC
Grozen wrote:


But for the long term speculation 8months is my positive speculation prediction, we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that?There will be massive panic sell which will further delay the inevitable rise in the long distant future 1year+....I think new ice intervention is inevitable for the sake of the everyone who holds ice stock and I for one would welcome it because as it is ice will become a big pile of goo if nothing is done.



All of which spells "Opportunity" for those that are patient.

Kick back, have a mojito and relax. Blink

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )
Marsan
#34 - 2013-06-12 16:15:44 UTC
Mojito!!! What are you thinking!!! Have a warm beer instead we've got to conserve Ice it's Blue Gold!!!!

Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a grumpy small portion of the community.
Gizznitt Malikite
Agony Unleashed
Agony Empire
#35 - 2013-06-12 18:26:38 UTC
GreenSeed wrote:
no, its not about ISK/h. ice mining could be 4billon isk/h and you could have every single highsec player doing it and it would do nothing to increase supply. lets assume every high sec belt gets mined in the exact moment it spawns, triggering the 4hr cooldown immediately. that averages to 625 ice cubes per hour, per belt.

considering that before this changes you had at least 80 - 90 macks per belt, mining 24/7, you were looking at 5,600 ice cubes per hour per belt.

quite the drop in supply.


The drop in supply is a WONDERFUL thing.... I don't understand your complaint!
What is ice used for:

For Isotopes:
Fueling POS's <- A large tower uses about 10k isotopes a day, 5k for Medium, 2.5k for a Small.
Jump Logistics <- A jump logistics ship (Carrier/JF) typically uses about 5-10k isotopes per jump.

For LO:
J-Bridge <- 150-300 LO per BS using the JB.
Fueling POS's <- A large tower uses about 3600 ozone a day, 1800 for Medium, 900 for a Small.

1 highsec ice gives 25 LO and 300 Isotopes. Think how much ice was mined to setup the several 1000+ pilot CFC vs 1000+ pilot Test+ fights that have happened over the last two weeks! This is a wonderful thing!!!

Now, there is one area that really needs to be addressed:
The 1000 isk base + 333 isk per hour charge for highsec S&I services... This is OBNOXIOUSLY too low and really needs to be increased to 100k isk base + 33.3k isk per hour. This will go a long way to rebalance highsec POS S&I vs highsec Station S&I, without hurting the manufacturer, as they'll simply pass the price along to the consumer!


GreenSeed wrote:

but that's even before we consider the naturally occurring cartel due to 70% of the cubes going to the same person, when before all miners needed to enter the market was a barge, a stopwatch, and a book to read.
...
here's also the problem mentioned by VV of corp fleets and boxing fleets, they act as a sort of natural cartel. they don't care about market prices, they care about plexing the accounts. once they do for the month, they don't stop mining but they do stop selling ice. that is already strangulating extraction even more.


Setting up a "cartel" takes a little more work than you realize, and frankly, it gives you a target to attack. Don't like them dominating your system, have them wardecced and/or harrassed by bumpers and Suicide Gankers. It's about time you start treating the highsec resources in EvE as a limited resource worthy of fighting over!!

GreenSeed wrote:

unlike most other production/extraction method in game the supply is not limited by the interest on players to partake in it, its limited by the game mechanics. this is why so many people were against it, but they were accused of being "AFK miners" and shunned... so now we have a crucial commodity with an artificial supply. yay

Ice is by no means nearly as limited as moongoo, and the moongoo market has been very successful economic engine. Ice will be mined in nullsec, which means there is as much ice out there as people could want, it's just a matter of being willing to risk your assets to go get it!

GreenSeed wrote:

and forget about null exporting until they remove that awful 4hr CD. i could go on for a full post about the dreadfulness of a nomad null mining op, not to mention miners piloting JFs...


First of all, nullsec doesn't need to "export ice". Highsec more than produces enough ice to supply it's own demands, and exports it to nullsec!
Next, while I agree the size of Ice makes nullsec ice mining prohibitive, perhaps you should quit bitching and state what you need to make it work:

POS Refining, Better Rorqual Compression rates, Optimized Rorquals for mining, etc..
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#36 - 2013-06-12 18:52:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir SmashAlot
If I had any regrets when it came to playing this expansion, it would have been not studying reactions, exploration loot tables, and component markets more closely.

The new decryptors (as well as current ones are falling in price) will turn my production lines on their head. I now understand why some T2 BPO holders are cashing out.

Should be fun times ahead as I think many players are still digesting all the changes. I know for myself there is still so much to go over.

As for Mynna's article, he is guessing like the rest of us, sophisticated tools or not, it still requires interpretation of the data.
YuuKnow
The Scope
#37 - 2013-06-12 23:41:00 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
There's not a lot to discuss about that blog.

I'd have to discuss about this other:

Quote:

Highsec ice miners have nothing to whine about. Their harvesters are getting a 50% duration buff, and with fuel prices going through the roof, they can expect their per hour income to at least double, if not triple or quadruple by the summer expansion


1) Prices don't seem really rising *that* high ATM, eh? Blink

2) Income per hour counts little when you can't make an "income per hour". Getting a *slim* chance to arrive before there are 3 roids left (and 40 ships off 2 multiboxers) does not make an income per hour. You are not going to get rich with those 10 cubes every 4 hours you manage to sgnatch off the multiboxers.

3) Basically it's another incentive to null sec, where a pathetically BAD and WoW alike canned progression model desperately attempts to push the players to.


Try a system less mined. One of my most frequented system has had two belts up and runnning consistently for the last few days I've checked. There is a steady, but small contingent of miners there.

yk
Tinu Moorhsum
Random Events
#38 - 2013-06-12 23:58:54 UTC
Pre patch I would have said that I thought low-end mineral prices would go up as people migrated to ice mining. Now that I've seen how it's working, at least in high-sec, ice miners are having to adjust and I suspect many will start mining ore, which will keep the price of low-ends stable or may even drop them a bit.

As for ice miners, I think until you can make over 100mil per hour mining ice in low or null-sec you won't see a massive transition from ore mining (or ratting) to ice mining as a way of making isk. That 100mil per hour, if you work it out for the component prices, should give you a ball park figure for the lowest price that ice materials will climb to. The highest I think it will get is about 20% above what you can make farming cosmic anomolies. If it gets much higher than that then large numbers of people *will* migrate to mining ice until the prices drop again. I think long term the price will stabilize at somewhere around that 100mil per hour mark.



sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#39 - 2013-06-13 00:43:30 UTC
Gizznitt Malikite wrote:
[quote=GreenSeed]no, its not about ISK/h. ice mining could be 4billon isk/h and you could have every single highsec player doing it and it would do nothing to increase supply. lets assume every high sec belt gets mined in the exact moment it spawns, triggering the 4hr cooldown immediately. that averages to 625 ice cubes per hour, per belt.

considering that before this changes you had at least 80 - 90 macks per belt, mining 24/7, you were looking at 5,600 ice cubes per hour per belt.

quite the drop in supply.


The drop in supply is a WONDERFUL thing.... I don't understand your complaint!
What is ice used for:

For Isotopes:
Fueling POS's <- A large tower uses about 10k isotopes a day, 5k for Medium, 2.5k for a Small.
Jump Logistics <- A jump logistics ship (Carrier/JF) typically uses about 5-10k isotopes per jump.

For LO:
J-Bridge <- 150-300 LO per BS using the JB.
Fueling POS's <- A large tower uses about 3600 ozone a day, 1800 for Medium, 900 for a Small.

1 highsec ice gives 25 LO and 300 Isotopes. Think how much ice was mined to setup the several 1000+ pilot CFC vs 1000+ pilot Test+ fights that have happened over the last two weeks! This is a wonderful thing!!!

Now, there is one area that really needs to be addressed:
The 1000 isk base + 333 isk per hour charge for highsec S&I services... This is OBNOXIOUSLY too low and really needs to be increased to 100k isk base + 33.3k isk per hour. This will go a long way to rebalance highsec POS S&I vs highsec Station S&I, without hurting the manufacturer, as they'll simply pass the price along to the consumer!


Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I read in the odyssey release notes that high sec ice anomilies only contain racial ice? If that is true, then the only source of LO would be low/null sec?
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#40 - 2013-06-13 04:50:58 UTC
sackofwine wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I read in the odyssey release notes that high sec ice anomilies only contain racial ice? If that is true, then the only source of LO would be low/null sec?


Racial ice still contains trace amounts of LO and if you poke around make some estimates from old diagoras numbers you get something absurd like that those trace amounts nonetheless supplied ~2/3 of the game's LO, simply by virtue of so damn much of it being mined.

Obviously, highsec isn't supplying 2/3 of the game's LO anymore.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal