Market Discussions

Reference:
http://themittani.com/features/speculating-odyssey-changes


Moongoo not my thing, so no comment on that.

Ice and Minerals, i think it will depend on the price Ice will reach or not and the behaviour of the highsec miners. If Ice prices will go up beyond lets say 1k p/u, the ISK/h will get ridiculous for such an easy task in other words if Ice mining exceeds lets say 20m-30m ISK/h (per char) i estimate a lot of guys will stop doing L4 missions. We may will see a coordinated effort in highsec (big mining corps a go?) to rip the Ice belts empty and maybe even a timetable for respawn timers in every ice system.
On the other hand coordination may be to much effort? Anyway at the end it boils down to ISK/h and if any mining exceeds average L4 mission or Anos in 0.0 income we will see a goldrush on mining be it in high or 0.0.


Now what do you think?

There's not a lot to discuss about that blog.

I'd have to discuss about this other:



1) Prices don't seem really rising *that* high ATM, eh?

2) Income per hour counts little when you can't make an "income per hour". Getting a *slim* chance to arrive before there are 3 roids left (and 40 ships off 2 multiboxers) does not make an income per hour. You are not going to get rich with those 10 cubes every 4 hours you manage to sgnatch off the multiboxers.

3) Basically it's another incentive to null sec, where a pathetically BAD and WoW alike canned progression model desperately attempts to push the players to.

Mynnna says what's good for Mynnna, nuff said

I'll just echo "the good doctor" Dr Eyjo from his fanfest presentation: "There are interesting times ahead"

Only thing that could really affect mineral prices now is if null miners actually proliferate. Dunno how that is going especially with the new moon goo wars that are proliferating.

I have only once out of ~10 times visiting 3 different ice systems & actually saw an ice anomaly there post expansion. It getting mined so quick now I doubt anyone could make a profit unless they live by 4 hour timers

He knows the market, but im not seeing anything great happening, high hopes or lower expectations.

The way you and Mynnna say that, almost sounds as if there is only the product "ice". Sure if you wana keep it that simple, it´s easy to think that ICE must go up because they removed good bunch of it.

But so far people could just pick the best pieces (mostly Dark glitter) of it, and ignore the crap WICH now has be mined to make the belt respawn. So there is a lot of "ice" (mostly racial fuel stuff) in 0.0 that is now getting mined, wich hasnt before. Saying ICE is going up across the board is horrible inacuarate if not wrong.

Id be keeping a careful eye on ice in Provi - and if the others get expensive enough, then Im sure people can deal with Amarr POS.

no, its not about ISK/h. ice mining could be 4billon isk/h and you could have every single highsec player doing it and it would do nothing to increase supply. lets assume every high sec belt gets mined in the exact moment it spawns, triggering the 4hr cooldown immediately. that averages to 625 ice cubes per hour, per belt.

considering that before this changes you had at least 80 - 90 macks per belt, mining 24/7, you were looking at 5,600 ice cubes per hour per belt.

quite the drop in supply.

but in reality its even less than that, 20 macks under perfect boost mine the anom in 50 minutes or so... making the 4hr into 5hrs... and we go from 625 cubes down to 500. that's even before we consider the naturally occurring cartel due to 70% of the cubes going to the same person, when before all miners needed to enter the market was a barge, a stopwatch, and a book to read.

unlike most other production/extraction method in game the supply is not limited by the interest on players to partake in it, its limited by the game mechanics. this is why so many people were against it, but they were accused of being "AFK miners" and shunned... so now we have a crucial commodity with an artificial supply. yay

this point alone is enough to see that 700isk per isotope is a joke, isotopes wont stop climbing in price until CCP admits this was a poorly thought through mess of an idea. hell, even having it at 700isk should be an indication... that's around 32m "isk/h" and most ice systems are packed with a horde of... merely 30 - 40 miners.

if ice is still hovering around 700isk that's because there's a lot of stock in the hands of inexperienced traders who will dump it instead of waiting for the extracted volume to set the price.

and forget about null exporting until they remove that awful 4hr CD. i could go on for a full post about the dreadfulness of a nomad null mining op, not to mention miners piloting JFs...

a good "fix" would be to set null ice to be exactly the way it was before (maybe spread the belts around a bit), and just remove all highsec ice. i have no clue why wasn't THIS the way they addressed this problem, assuming it was a problem.

there's also the problem mentioned by VV of corp fleets and boxing fleets, they act as a sort of natural cartel. they don't care about market prices, they care about plexing the accounts. once they do for the month, they don't stop mining but they do stop selling ice. that is already strangulating extraction even more.


so yeah... its still not too late to buy ice.

i think you've got more chance of me being the first man on mars than we do of seeing ice hit 100k/unit again.