These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Procurer Investment Fund - 50% profit guaranteed

First post
Author
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#61 - 2013-05-29 22:43:47 UTC
* DISCLAIMER: I know nothing about the markets, the history table or graphs and do not understand the finer points of market mechanics....also I suck at maths*


2000 * 12 = 24000 is your calculated rate of loss.

There were a minimum of 400k built in the 2 months post announcement.

If you want to calculate the exact volume traded in the past year, then it is relatively easy to do....although that will tell you total bought and sold.

That number is not overly helpful, as many of them will be flipped and so, counted twice...so you can probably halve that value.

So, if for example, where I am sitting now shows 13k procurers traded (in both directions) over the past year, this is an average of 38 a day. I am not sitting in some backwater region.
The average price is pretty much smack in the middle of the high and low, indicating it is going equally to buys and sells.

This means, 1 procurer is being counted twice....so, in fact, there are 7k (rounding up) procurers moving through this region in the last year.

In the biggest trade hub, there are 162k in the last year, which is an average of 445/day. However, the last 2 months have been 392 and 279 respectively, and the averages are skewed by a large movement approx once a month of 1k.

A quick peek shows that there are currently 3697 procurers under your target price of 14m. which would need to be bought out.
The average price for the last month has been 8.3m (The sell order price), with few, if any going to buy orders.

As I said before, it is not a buy order fund you need, it is a fund to buy up every procurer on the market below your target price and relist...and that is a slightly different task than the one you are proposing to undertake.

That one you can give a "Hi, I need X isk to achieve" instead of a vague "I am going to place buy orders", and is a slightly more realistic way of resetting the market.

So, you just need to calculate the buyout price of the sell orders, and add in the additional stock, and then you know how much isk to ask for....
Manny Moons
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#62 - 2013-05-29 23:01:04 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
there are no dumb people, there are just people who do not understand others, therefore calling them dumb all the time

actually you are using the word dump and stupid too often in my opinion...

however the procurer demand was 2000 before the patch, steady over a year, so burn through rate will be quite good

I don't know if you are interested in understanding others, but basing your estimate of Procurer demand on pre-buff numbers does not seem to me to be reasonable. The Procurer of today is a significantly different ship than the pre-buff version, and is an order of magnitude more expensive (based on build cost or your sell price). At the same time, all the other choices of mining vessels have also changed. If it isn't the same ship, and isn't the same price, what makes you think the demand for it (at your sell price) will be the same?

Harry Forever
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#63 - 2013-05-29 23:02:19 UTC
Rhivre wrote:


honestly I do not know what you want to tell me, but please open your own fund or proceed with your own plan and we see who will have the better outcome, I keep it simple buy at 8 million sell at 14 million and you do your math thing...
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#64 - 2013-05-29 23:04:57 UTC
Well, break it down for me.

If the cheapest sell order is at 8.3m how are you planning to sell at 14?
Harry Forever
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#65 - 2013-05-29 23:13:32 UTC
Manny Moons wrote:
Harry Forever wrote:
there are no dumb people, there are just people who do not understand others, therefore calling them dumb all the time

actually you are using the word dump and stupid too often in my opinion...

however the procurer demand was 2000 before the patch, steady over a year, so burn through rate will be quite good

I don't know if you are interested in understanding others, but basing your estimate of Procurer demand on pre-buff numbers does not seem to me to be reasonable. The Procurer of today is a significantly different ship than the pre-buff version, and is an order of magnitude more expensive (based on build cost or your sell price). At the same time, all the other choices of mining vessels have also changed. If it isn't the same ship, and isn't the same price, what makes you think the demand for it (at your sell price) will be the same?



I see a thousand blowup on the killboard each month, just on one killboard, the actual number will be higher, there is an overstock and it is cheap, not more needed to use the ship even more compared to the past... accepting other opinions does not mean to agree on them you know, there is also no need to convince me, i started this thread only because I was searching for investors, if people do not agree they do not need to invest

actually I'm doing it with my own funds anyway, limited but still, I would be happy if people just accept it because this should have never been a discussion, it was only opend to search for people who have the same opinion and move forward with them, this was not opened because i was searching for people who convince me of the opposite
Harry Forever
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#66 - 2013-05-29 23:14:59 UTC
Rhivre wrote:
Well, break it down for me.

If the cheapest sell order is at 8.3m how are you planning to sell at 14?


I buy those 8.3m ones and put them as sell order for 14 million on the market
Adunh Slavy
#67 - 2013-05-29 23:51:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
meh nvm, no point

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#68 - 2013-05-30 00:05:16 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
Rhivre wrote:
Well, break it down for me.

If the cheapest sell order is at 8.3m how are you planning to sell at 14?


I buy those 8.3m ones and put them as sell order for 14 million on the market


Then, my original point stands.

You can calculate how much isk you need, and put it in the OP as a value which you are requesting.

You know that there are 3k of them below 14m in one region, and there are 200 in another etc etc, so that will tell potential investors how many you are looking for....and, based on the turnover, give an time for return of investment.

Traedar
InterStellar Trading Syndicate
#69 - 2013-05-30 00:17:55 UTC
As someone who owns a lot of Procurers, I applaud your effort to raise the price of them by moving them from hubs to less populated areas. I hope you make a lot of profit and you probably will. How long will it take to get my principal+interest back if I invest?

RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#70 - 2013-05-30 06:55:31 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
Andres Talas wrote:


check out this site http://zkillboard.com/ search procurer go on losses then on history, you see 800 die each month just on this killboard, I assume that not all are showed there, so my prediction is 2000 die each month because, the manufacturing market was 2000 units every month consistent over a year before the changes have been announced

as we see more players come to the game the number will go up, I also think that more people use those procurers for ninja mining in low or nullsec because they are cheap at the moment, so I'm still not convinced, also no procurers are produced at the moment so all additional procurers who blow up are directly used from the overstock, 2 years max i would say, and the prices go up before that, but lets see how it turns out...


Lets assume that you're right and 2000 Procurers die each month (ignoring the fact that pre-buff Procurers were pretty much solely used to make Skiffs which were the only efficient way to mine Merx in 0.0, so they died more often then than now).

With an overproduction of between 300,000 and 500,000 around the patch (that's only 600b to 1T worth of minerals invested into these things, which isn't actually a huge amount in the context of EVE's economy) let's see how long it will take to burn through stockpiles.

10-20 years. That's quite different from your 6 month proposed rebound period.

To corner the market, you'd need 8-12 Trillion ISK (high end estimation, you'd do it with less), and it would then take you 10-20 years to sell off your stockpile.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Harry Forever
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#71 - 2013-05-30 07:52:57 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:
Harry Forever wrote:
Andres Talas wrote:


check out this site http://zkillboard.com/ search procurer go on losses then on history, you see 800 die each month just on this killboard, I assume that not all are showed there, so my prediction is 2000 die each month because, the manufacturing market was 2000 units every month consistent over a year before the changes have been announced

as we see more players come to the game the number will go up, I also think that more people use those procurers for ninja mining in low or nullsec because they are cheap at the moment, so I'm still not convinced, also no procurers are produced at the moment so all additional procurers who blow up are directly used from the overstock, 2 years max i would say, and the prices go up before that, but lets see how it turns out...


Lets assume that you're right and 2000 Procurers die each month (ignoring the fact that pre-buff Procurers were pretty much solely used to make Skiffs which were the only efficient way to mine Merx in 0.0, so they died more often then than now).

With an overproduction of between 300,000 and 500,000 around the patch (that's only 600b to 1T worth of minerals invested into these things, which isn't actually a huge amount in the context of EVE's economy) let's see how long it will take to burn through stockpiles.

10-20 years. That's quite different from your 6 month proposed rebound period.

To corner the market, you'd need 8-12 Trillion ISK (high end estimation, you'd do it with less), and it would then take you 10-20 years to sell off your stockpile.


I did not say we burn through the stockpile in 6 month, I only said that the price will go up to 14 million within 6 - 12 month when i start buying up the 8 million sales orders, thats a big difference, the price will go up in stairs and not fall back, steady the more of the stock is burned through, it will not go directly from 8 to 20 million after the stock is burned completely, this will be a process where it raised each month until all the stock is burned
Harry Forever
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#72 - 2013-05-30 07:55:57 UTC
Traedar wrote:
As someone who owns a lot of Procurers, I applaud your effort to raise the price of them by moving them from hubs to less populated areas. I hope you make a lot of profit and you probably will. How long will it take to get my principal+interest back if I invest?



I estimated profits start flowing within 6-12 month, depending on how many investors I find, pretty sure some patience will be needed
Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#73 - 2013-05-30 11:32:55 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
Traedar wrote:
As someone who owns a lot of Procurers, I applaud your effort to raise the price of them by moving them from hubs to less populated areas. I hope you make a lot of profit and you probably will. How long will it take to get my principal+interest back if I invest?



I estimated profits start flowing within 6-12 month, depending on how many investors I find, pretty sure some patience will be needed


I have 17 million can I help?

Manny Moons
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#74 - 2013-05-30 12:40:15 UTC
Caleb Ayrania wrote:

I have 17 million can I help?


17 million ISK or 17 million Procurers? If the latter, the stockpile is larger than I thought.
Amuntis
Cayman Island
#75 - 2013-05-30 12:52:58 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
Traedar wrote:
As someone who owns a lot of Procurers, I applaud your effort to raise the price of them by moving them from hubs to less populated areas. I hope you make a lot of profit and you probably will. How long will it take to get my principal+interest back if I invest?



I estimated profits start flowing within 6-12 month, depending on how many investors I find, pretty sure some patience will be needed



Definition of 'Profit'
A financial benefit that is realized when the amount of revenue gained from a business activity exceeds the expenses, costs and taxes needed to sustain the activity.


You don't make a profit from the sale of your first procurer period. If you have to buy up thousands of procurers under 14mil before your stock starts selling, it will take as much sales as you need to cover the expense of ALL the procurers you bought to even BEGIN making a profit. In your case, you first have to buy out thousands of procurers, and thus it will take you YEARS to even start making a profit. Certainly not 6-12 months as you proclaim.

If you do not grasp the simplicity of what I typed above, for the love of god, take some courses in economics before trying to play the market again.
Harry Forever
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#76 - 2013-05-30 13:50:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Harry Forever
Amuntis wrote:
Harry Forever wrote:
Traedar wrote:
As someone who owns a lot of Procurers, I applaud your effort to raise the price of them by moving them from hubs to less populated areas. I hope you make a lot of profit and you probably will. How long will it take to get my principal+interest back if I invest?



I estimated profits start flowing within 6-12 month, depending on how many investors I find, pretty sure some patience will be needed



Definition of 'Profit'
A financial benefit that is realized when the amount of revenue gained from a business activity exceeds the expenses, costs and taxes needed to sustain the activity.


You don't make a profit from the sale of your first procurer period. If you have to buy up thousands of procurers under 14mil before your stock starts selling, it will take as much sales as you need to cover the expense of ALL the procurers you bought to even BEGIN making a profit. In your case, you first have to buy out thousands of procurers, and thus it will take you YEARS to even start making a profit. Certainly not 6-12 months as you proclaim.

If you do not grasp the simplicity of what I typed above, for the love of god, take some courses in economics before trying to play the market again.


I buy for 8 million and sell for 13,9 already, so your lines are proofen wrong there is profit already, but yea please keep studying economics for sure it will pay off someday

ps: you may as well rethink your tone and wording in the future
Adunh Slavy
#77 - 2013-05-30 14:05:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
For fun, I put out a regional buy order for some P1s, 8 mil worth. I have flipped it three times in a week at 50% margins.

I'm up 10 million ISK. How's your mining barge thing going?

P.S. I never undocked either.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Ripblade Falconpunch
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#78 - 2013-05-30 14:08:10 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
Traedar wrote:
As someone who owns a lot of Procurers, I applaud your effort to raise the price of them by moving them from hubs to less populated areas. I hope you make a lot of profit and you probably will. How long will it take to get my principal+interest back if I invest?



I estimated profits start flowing within 6-12 month, depending on how many investors I find, pretty sure alot of patience will be needed


Fixed that for you.

You could make 10x what you're going to make in total off this master procurer plan in 6 to 12 months, but hey if that's what you think your time is worth then more power to you.

At least you can continue amusing us by shitting up market discussion while you're waiting for those waves of ISK to start washing over your shores right?
Harry Forever
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#79 - 2013-05-30 14:16:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Harry Forever
Ripblade Falconpunch wrote:
Harry Forever wrote:
Traedar wrote:
As someone who owns a lot of Procurers, I applaud your effort to raise the price of them by moving them from hubs to less populated areas. I hope you make a lot of profit and you probably will. How long will it take to get my principal+interest back if I invest?



I estimated profits start flowing within 6-12 month, depending on how many investors I find, pretty sure alot of patience will be needed


Fixed that for you.

You could make 10x what you're going to make in total off this master procurer plan in 6 to 12 months, but hey if that's what you think your time is worth then more power to you.

At least you can continue amusing us by shitting up market discussion while you're waiting for those waves of ISK to start washing over your shores right?


cool down a bit, right? whats your master plan then? please enlighten us...

and be warened if you get unpolite again i will ignore future posts of you like many others, so no more fun talking to me then...
flakeys
Doomheim
#80 - 2013-05-30 14:21:40 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:


ps: you may as well rethink your tone and wording in the future



Don't hand out advice you are not living by yourself mmmmmmmmmmmmmmk .


We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.